New England, Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid

As we race toward August, Footballguys.com will look at one team per day with our quick-hitting Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid, where we check out the overall mood of each team's offense and let you know the players we are in on (because they are great values at the cost it takes to acquire them) and who we're out on (because they are too expensive and won't give you a good return on that investment).

Go Deeper: See in-depth projections for every Patriots player here >>>

This is a daily series that will stretch through July 31. If you like this and want another, come back tomorrow. Another will be here. And all 32 of them will be free to Insiders. To become an Insider, simply sign up with a free account.

And here are all of the Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid articles we've done so far:
New England | New Orleans | NY Giants | NY Jets | Philadelphia | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Seattle | Tampa Bay | Tennessee | Washington

Quick Hits

Want a brief overview? Here it is:

• General Vibes - Neutral
• We're In On at Cost - Rhamondre Stevenson
• We're Out On at Cost - Rhamondre Stevenson

And yes, that's right. Stevenson is a polarizing player. Some people are very high on him. Some believe the hype is too much.

Want a longer breakdown of how it's going in New England (and what 15 people think about Rhamondre Stevenson)? Read on.

Patriots, Team Vibes

• Good - 2
• Neutral - 9
• Bad - 5

Staffers with Good Vibes

• Phil Alexander: Matt Patricia is no longer calling offensive plays. What was that?
• Zareh Kantzabedian: The disparity between Joe Judge and Bill O'Brien as offensive minds is unfathomable for the human mind to comprehend. Trust in O'Brien.

Staffers with Neutral Vibes

• Ben Cummins: The offensive coordinator switch from Matt Patricia to Bill O’Brien will provide a significant upgrade.
• Dan Hindery: The coaching change should help, and New England is amongst the betting favorites to land DeAndre Hopkins and Dalvin Cook, either of whom would provide a boost.
• Jason Wood: It’s neutral with a positive bent, though, as Bill O’Brien is a major upgrade at coordinator and knows Mac Jones inside and out.
• Jeff Haseley: New England is in a fierce division, but as long as they have Bill Belichick, they will be competitive.
• Chad Parsons: The offensive ceiling may not rival the top of the NFL hierarchy, but the floor is sturdy, as even if Mac Jones does not take a step forward, the ground game should thrive.
• Jeff Tefertiller: An average team in a strong division, with the worst quarterback of the division.
• Daniel Harms: Bill O'Brien should get Mac Jones back on track, but the offense isn't widely talented.
• Dave Kluge: They beefed up their pass-catchers, but Mac Jones could hinder the overall production.
• Craig Lakins: The addition of Bill O'Brien as the offensive coordinator should provide some signs of life for a stagnant offense, but they still lack playmakers at WR despite adding Smith-Schuster in the offseason.

Staffers with Bad Vibes

• Jeff Bell: When we are talking about Mac Jones and Mike Gesicki, it is hard to get excited.
• Hutchinson Brown: This team has very little to get excited for in 2023. This year is the year we realize Mac Jones is NOT the future for this team.
• Andy Hicks: There can be little confidence in getting reliable outcomes and volume of numbers.
• Ryan Weisse: Sure, having a real offensive coordinator helps, but the roster at this point inspires no confidence.
• Sam Wagman: Does this team have an upward trajectory with next to no wide receiver talent, no real answer at the quarterback position, and holes on the defense?

Players We Are Targeting

• Rhamondre Stevenson - 10
• Mike Gesicki - 3
• Ty Montgomery - 1
• Hunter Henry - 1
• Tyquan Thornton - 1
• No One - 1

Reasons to be In on Rhamondre Stevenson

• Ben Cummins: Dual-threat Rhamondre Stevenson is a total smash in the early third round of drafts.
• Jason Wood: I had him projected as a top-10 back in February when no one else saw it that way. The consensus is catching up.
• Phil Alexander: Trailed only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey in running back targets in 2022 while sharing the backfield with Damien Harris. Harris now plays in Buffalo.
• Chad Parsons: As a big back who can move and (especially) catch, Stevenson has elite upside outside of a second back, jumping up in expected usage.
• Hutchinson Brown: As of now, Stevenson is set up for the bell cow role in this run-first offense and should see plenty of volume in both the receiving and the running game.
• Daniel Harms: He's the only offensive player that can overcome the mediocrity of New England's weapons and should see another heavy workload.
• Zareh Kantzabedian: Bill O'Brien made Jahmyr Gibbs the leading receiver for Alabama in 2022. Stevenson, a proven receiving back, should be projected for heavy receiving volume.
• Craig Lakins: The offseason couldn't have played out better for Stevenson, as the Patriots neglected to add any significant talent at RB. Ty Montgomery lingers as the probable receiving specialist, but Stevenson should remain the lead back.
• Ryan Weisse: For drafters that don't want to attack running back in Round 1, Stevenson in the 3rd is a game-changer. He will win leagues in 2023.
• Sam Wagman: Rhamondre Stevenson could be a rare bellcow back for this team in 2023.

Reasons to be In on Mike Gesicki

• Jeff Haseley: Gesicki has reached 50+ receptions in three of his five seasons. He was an afterthought in Mike McDonald's offense which lowered his appeal. He should bounce back into 50+ catches in 2023 with New England.
• Jeff Bell: An ADP that makes it easy to move on in a starved tight-end landscape, Gesicki has a path to emerge as a weekly starter.
• Dave Kluge: Bill Belichick has tried to find a steady tight end since losing Rob Gronkowski. Why not throw a late-round dart on Gesicki?

Reasons to be In on Ty Montgomery

• Dan Hindery: I am out on this offense in general but don't mind a last-round flyer on Montgomery, who looks like the favorite for the James White role.

Reasons to be In on Hunter Henry

• Craig Lakins: The addition of Mike Gesicki has pushed Henry down draft boards, but the Patriots are the kings of two-tight-end formations.

Reasons to be In on Tyquan Thornton

• Andy Hicks: The Patriots have an appalling record of drafting wide receivers in the Belichick era. Are they due for a change in fortune? Thornton had limited opportunities but showed promise.

Reasons to be In on No One

• Jeff Tefertiller: Even the arrival of Bill O'Brien leaves little to be excited. They've averaged just 21 PPG the past four years and boast this WR corps: JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and Tyquan Thornton.

Players We Are Avoiding

• Rhamondre Stevenson - 5
• JuJu Smith-Schuster - 4
• No One - 2
• Everyone But Rhamondre Stevenson - 2
• Mike Gesicki - 1
• DeVante Parker - 1
• Everyone Except Rhamondre Stevenson or Hunter Henry - 1

Reasons to be Out on Rhamondre Stevenson

• Dan Hindery: Given the shaky offensive line, rumors surrounding interest in other veterans, and Bill Belichick's history of unpredictable running back usage, there are often better options (Breece Hall, Tony Pollard, and Josh Jacobs) on the board.
• Jeff Haseley: Bill Belichick is known for rotating in his backs. Stevenson can be a workhorse, but will he? Therein lies the risk.
• Jeff Tefertiller: He played well last year and is being priced at his ceiling, even though there is talk of adding a free agent back like Dalvin Cook.
• Dave Kluge: Very talented back, but 30 years of coaching tendencies have me worried that he’ll be stuck in a timeshare.
• Andy Hicks: The depth chart looks bare behind Stevenson, but I would not write anyone else on the roster off to make significant contributions.

Reasons to be Out on JuJu Smith-Schuster

• Ben Cummins: Smith-Schuster is still reportedly dealing with the same knee injury that caused the Chiefs to limit his playing time over the second half of the 2022 season.
• Jason Wood: If Smith-Schuster couldn’t have a standout season as the Chiefs' lead receiver, he’s not going to deliver as the No. 1 for the Patriots.
• Jeff Bell: Health will always be a question. He had flashes with the Chiefs, but that was Patrick Mahomes II. Mac Jones is not Patrick Mahomes II.
• Hutchinson Brown: His knee injuries have already come back to haunt him. Maybe he is the No. 1 here when healthy, but that won’t be a major fantasy accomplishment. The passing volume being so low and coming from Mac Jones will cap any upside.

Reasons to be Out on No One

• Zareh Kantzabedian: Every fantasy-relevant Patriot seems to be undervalued presently.
• Craig Lakins: There are only two Patriots being selected in the Top 150 at the moment.

Reasons to be Out on Everyone But Rhamondre Stevenson

• Daniel Harms: Simple as that.
• Ryan Weisse: Are they priced right? Sure. Do I want them on my fantasy team? No, thank you.

Reasons to be Out on Mike Gesicki

• Chad Parsons: Landing on the depth chart with Hunter Henry hurts Gesicki's upside, and a crowded wide receiver depth chart siphons perimeter snap opportunities if Gesicki is stuck between positions.

Reasons to be Out on DeVante Parker

• Sam Wagman: Despite the pleas to follow the money on his recent extension, color me skeptical that Parker plays a significant role this season.

Reasons to be Out on Everyone Except Rhamondre Stevenson or Hunter Henry

• Phil Alexander: This is where this team is.