Tennessee, Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid

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As we race toward August, Footballguys.com will look at one team per day with our quick-hitting Team Vibes and Players We're In and Out On, where we check out the overall mood of each team's offense and let you know the players we are in on (because they are great values at the cost it takes to acquire them) and who we're out on (because they are too expensive and won't give you a good return on that investment).

Go Deeper: See in-depth projections for every Titans player here >>>

This is a daily series that will stretch through July 31. If you like this and want another, come back tomorrow. Another will be here. And all 32 of them will be free to Insiders. To become an Insider, simply sign up with a free account.

And here are all of the Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid articles we've done so far:
Tennessee | Washington

Quick Hits

Want a brief overview? Here it is:

• General Vibes - Neutral (barely)
• We're In On at Cost - Derrick Henry
• We're Out On at Cost - Ryan Tannehill and Chigoziem Okonkwo

Want a longer breakdown of how it's going in Tennessee? Read on.

Titans, Team Vibes

• Good - 0
• Neutral - 9
• Bad - 8

Staffers with Good Vibes

• None.

Staffers with Neutral Vibes

• Ben Cummins: As long as Ryan Tannehill is behind center. Bad if Will Levis is the quarterback.
• Jordan McNamara: The team keeps taking relatively cheap shots on quarterbacks of the future in an effort to rebuild without bottoming out.
• Phil Alexander: The Titans still think they can contend if Ryan Tannehill stays healthy, so expect things to remain status quo, at least to start the year.
• Dan Hindery: The expectations are low enough that we could see a couple of Titans outperform ADP, especially if Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo can breakout in their second seasons.
• Jason Wood: They have optionality with Will Levis, but this will still be a run-heavy, ball control offense of things go to plan.
• Daniel Harms: The offensive line should be better than in 2022, but they are capped with their QB room and receiver corps.
• Andy Hicks: There are new and young pieces in place that could revitalize the offense.
• Jeff Tefertiller: With Derrick Henry in the lineup, this offense will not be bad, no matter the quarterback situation.
• Jeff Haseley: Tennessee still has Derrick Henry and a head coach who knows how to win in Mike Vrabel.

Staffers with Bad Vibes

• Chad Parsons: The Titans are crumbling as an offensive roster. The team drafting Day 2 quarterbacks in back-to-back years is not a great sign for Ryan Tannehill to return to his peak powers.
• Jeff Bell: The success of the offense is dependent on Ryan Tannehill, who regressed to the level that saw him lose his job in Miami.
• Ryan Weisse: They were bad last year and did nothing to get better.
• Dave Kluge: An aging roster that missed the playoffs last year did nothing to improve and got a year older.
• Matt Montgomery: This feels like a team that peaked when they lost a home playoff game to the Bengals. The core players Tannehill and Henry aren't getting any younger and they have little help elsewhere.
• Christian Williams: No comment. Just bad.
• Justin Howe: They've yet to find their quarterback, and all the pressure sits on two second-year guys (Burks and Okonkwo) to make all of the splash plays.
• Joey Wright: This is a team in transition with the least exciting prospects among their division mates.

Players We Are Targeting

• Derrick Henry - 7
• Treylon Burks - 5
• Chigoziem Okonkwo - 4
• Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo - 1

Reasons to be In on Derrick Henry

• Chad Parsons: Bet on greatness until they are unequivocally eroded. That has yet to occur with Henry, and the offense should drive through the super-sized back yet again.
• Jason Wood: Until I see a workhorse back fall off, I’m not avoiding them, particularly in an era of low-usage committees.
• Daniel Harms: The cliff is still coming for Henry, but that won't be this year. The volume makes him a welcome target among non-workhorse backs.
• Jeff Tefertiller: Sure, he is aging. But we have yet to see signs of him slowing down, and Henry surprised as a pass-catcher in 2022.
• Jeff Haseley: Until he shows us otherwise, he is a reliable fantasy commodity that you can get at a discount compared to years past.
• Matt Montgomery: Little to no competition for meaningful carries and snaps, and until we are proven otherwise, he is still a top 3 running back in the NFL. This team is always run-heavy.
• Justin Howe: Henry continues to fall behind sexier names, but most of his ADP-mates share the same age/usage/injury concerns.

Reasons to be In on Chigoziem Okonkwo

• Dan Hindery: On an offense desperately in need of playmaking, Okonkwo stands out as a potential go-to option in the passing game, given his athleticism and the flashes we saw from him as a rookie.
• Andy Hicks: On an offense lacking receiving weapons, their young tight end looks like a star. Will his quarterbacks be able to get him the ball reliably?
• Dave Kluge: As a rookie, Okonkwo showed a lot of play-making potential. On a team bereft of pass-catchers, he will sit atop the pecking order alongside Treylon Burks.
• Christian Williams: He has an opportunity at a massive target share on a team devoid of weapons.
• Joey Wright: The dedication this off-season by Okonkwo gives me the confidence I need to rank him within my top ten among tight ends.

Reasons to be In on Treylon Burks

• Jordan McNamara: Burks has a wide-open opportunity to be the WR1 in an offense that should frequently be trailing in 2023.
• Phil Alexander: Unless DeAndre Hopkins signs, Burks is the team's best wide receiver. Bonus points because he's fun to watch with the ball in his hands.
• Jeff Bell: Sometimes, the easy answer is the right answer. Without meaningful target competition, Burks has big upside on a seventh-round ADP.
• Ryan Weisse: He is their best wide receiver, and it's not particularly close. He should see an enormous target share.

Reasons to be In on Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo

• Ben Cummins: Both Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo are priority targets at their ADPs. Both will soak up targets on a team that will be forced to pass more in 2023.

Players We Are Avoiding

• Ryan Tannehill - 5
• Chigoziem Okonkwo - 5
• Derrick Henry - 2
• The Quarterbacks - 2
• Will Levis - 1
• Anyone not named Derrick Henry, Treylon Burks, or Chigoziem Okonkwo - 1
• No One - 1

Reasons to be Out on Ryan Tannehill

• Jordan McNamara: I expect Tennessee to struggle and want to audition Will Levis in 2023 before evaluating the 2024 quarterback class and limiting Tannehill's starts in 2023.
• Dan Hindery: This should again be a run-heavy offense, and even if the young pass catchers make positive strides, the receiving talent is still subpar.
• Dave Kluge: Waning efficiency, two young quarterbacks behind him, and a losing record could relegate him to the bench late in the season.
• Matt Montgomery: He is never going to be more than he is currently, and he is going into season 11. He is a less-than-mobile quarterback on a run-first offense with not many weapons on the outside.
• Joey Wright: With a rookie quarterback ready at the first sight of a misstep, I worry about how short the leash will be for Tannehill in his twelfth NFL season.

Reasons to be Out on Chigoziem Okonkwo

• Chad Parsons: In the mid-zone of tight end, unless you sharpshoot elite production, you have overpaid with options like Okonkwo's price.
• Jason Wood: One of the worst things you can do in drafts is target the mid-round tight ends. It’s a stars and scrubs position.
• Daniel Harms: Ball control offenses with a low expected passing volume and point total aren't ones I want many pieces of.
• Jeff Haseley: In order to be a productive top-10 fantasy tight end, you generally need targets north of 85., I'm not sure this offense can get him there.
• Justin Howe: Okonkwo will dazzle in camp and see his ADP swell, but I'll pass. There are huge usage concerns after he couldn't vanquish Geoff Swaim or Austin Hooper as a rookie.

Reasons to be Out on Derrick Henry

• Phil Alexander: Henry probably has another dominant season in him. I just prefer Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard in the same ADP range.
• Christian Williams: The offensive line failed to improve, and Henry's acquisition cost fails to acknowledge his downside.

Reasons to be Out on The Quarterbacks

• Andy Hicks: It has to be the likely rotating quarterbacks. Ryan Tannehill, Will Levis, or even Malik Willis, no one is posting good fantasy numbers.
• Jeff Tefertiller: Tannehill threw 100 fewer passes in 2022. He is not throwing for 3,819 yards and 33 touchdowns as he did in 2020 with Arthur Smith calling the plays.

Reasons to be Out on Will Levis

• Ben Cummins: If he doesn’t improve as a quarterback in the NFL, he’s going to be a bust.

Reasons to be Out on Anyone not named Derrick Henry, Treylon Burks, or Chigoziem Okonkwo

• Ryan Weisse: I don't want secondary players on a bad team.

Reasons to be Out on No One

• Jeff Bell: The Titans' offensive options are very pessimistically priced. A return to better play from Tannehill can make every ADP a value.