Washington, Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid

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As we race toward August, Footballguys.com will look at one team per day with our quick-hitting Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid, where we check out the overall mood of each team's offense and let you know the players we are in on (because they are great values at the cost it takes to acquire them) and who we're out on (because they are too expensive and won't give you a good return on that investment).

Go Deeper: See in-depth projections for every Commanders player here >>>

This is the first in a daily series that will stretch through July 31. If you like this and want another, come back tomorrow. Another will be here. And all 32 of them will be free to Insiders. To become an Insider, simply sign up with a free account.

Why did we start with Washington? Because no one ever starts with Washington. so let's use reverse alphabetical order for once.

Quick Hits

Want a brief overview? Here it is:

• General Vibes - Neutral
• We're In On at Cost - Antonio Gibson
• We're Out On at Cost - Brian Robinson Jr

Want a longer breakdown of how it's going in Washington? Read on.

Commanders, Team Vibes

• Good - 3
• Neutral - 14
• Bad - 3

Staffers with Good Vibes

• Jordan McNamara: An ownership group led by Josh Harris purchased the team from one of the worst owners in professional sports. For that reason alone, things are looking up.
• Jeff Bell: At least in the sense of worth watching. The skill, talent, and Eric Bieniemy getting a shot at an offensive coordinator job outside Patrick Mahomes II's shadow.
• Ryan Weisse: They have plenty of offensive weapons and now an offensive coordinator that can use them.

Staffers with Neutral Vibes

• Sigmund Bloom: New OC Eric Bieniemy will help but among the league's worst QB situations.
• Ben Cummins: New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and new quarterbacks Sam Howell and/or Jacoby Brissett will provide a spark to the offense.
• Chad Parsons: I trust the weapons and Eric Bieniemy, with the unproven quarterback situation holding back more optimism.
• Nick Whalen: The weapons are good in Washington, but the quarterback situation is one of the worst in the league. Eric Bieniemy is a wild card.
• Phil Alexander: If Sam Howell stinks, Jacoby Brissett can at least sustain Carson Wentz/Tyler Heinecke level of quarterback play.
• Dan Hindery: The wide receiver group is sneaky good, and Sam Howell has the potential to at least be fun. But the overall talent level is mediocre.
• Jason Wood: Eric Bieniemy has never called NFL plays on a regular basis and has Sam Howell at quarterback. This could be a one-and-done situation.
• Daniel Harms: I think Eric Bieniemy will help the offensive structure, but Sam Howell isn't a needle-moving QB. Could see a new staff and QB in 2024.
• Andy Hicks: A transition year in Washington under new ownership. Anything could happen this year with so much up in the air.
• Sam Wagman: This could be somewhat of a throwaway year as the team gets adjusted to new ownership as well as a new offensive scheme under Eric Bieniemy.
• Jeff Haseley: I have a feeling the Commanders offense will be better than we think. Their running backs are decent, and their wide receivers are better than average.
• Dave Kluge: Although the wide receivers and running backs are enticing, the quarterback uncertainty could easily cap the offense’s upside.
• Joey Wright: There are some receivers and running backs I would be happy to have on my team, but no one who feels like they could finish top twelve at their position.
• Christian Williams: While there's reason for excitement on both sides of the ball, questions about Eric Bienemy's ability to call an offense and Sam Howell's ability to execute remain.

Staffers with Bad Vibes

• Jeff Tefertiller: The combination of poor QBs and line play will be ugly for fans this season. Eric Bieniemy has never called plays, and this could be much worse than most expect.
• Craig Lakins: The NFC East is tough right now, and I need to see it to believe it for quarterback Sam Howell.
• Matt Montgomery: You have to think that this is the make-or-break year for head coach Ron Rivera who more and more seems as though he has allowed the league to pass him by.

Players We Are Targeting

• Antonio Gibson - 9
• Jahan Dotson - 4
• Terry McLaurin - 3
• Brian Robinson Jr - 2
• Sam Howell - 1
• No One - 1

Reasons to be In on Antonio Gibson

• Sigmund Bloom: It sounds like Bieniemy is open to using him more as a receiver and in space.
• Chad Parsons: There is more flex potential with the Bieniemy buzz of using him in space, but I love the upside if Brian Robinson were to miss time.
• Jordan McNamara: There is a non-zero chance that Gibson is the preferred option for Eric Bieniemy, who might choose to optimize Gibson's receiving talents in 2023.
• Jeff Bell: The Chiefs had heavy running back usage in the passing game and potentially a rookie quarterback looking for easy outlets.
• Ryan Weisse: You cannot understate the fantasy value of a pass-catching back in Bieniemy's offense.
• Sam Wagman: Gibson could be a solid RB2 in this new offensive scheme for the Commanders. 55-60 targets feel like his floor in this offense.
• Dave Kluge: He’s shown feats of incredible athleticism and has the skill set to slot in as the team’s receiving back.
• Christian Williams: Gibson profiles as the only pass-catching running back with upside, and the acquisition cost hasn't inflated to reflect that.
• Craig Lakins: J.D. McKissic is finally out of his way. I'm willing to take a 9th round shot on him.

Reasons to be In on Jahan Dotson

• Nick Whalen: 2nd-year WRs show the most growth, and Dotson has already flashed enough on the field to get excited about his prospects.
• Dan Hindery: An extended absence due to injury was the only thing that slowed Dotson as a rookie. He was a dynamic playmaker when on the field and is a strong breakout candidate.
• Joey Wright: I expect the yardage to come up with an already solid touchdown line. Whether it is Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett, Dotson’s quarterback will be improved over last season’s turnstile.
• Jeff Tefertiller: Dotson is an up-and-coming player who will take a step forward in year two. He and McLaurin make a dynamic duo.

Reasons to be In on Terry McLaurin

• Ben Cummins: McLaurin is going to have the best season of his career and is more affordable this season than he was last year.
• Jason Wood: He’s the most talented player on the roster and should be the focal point.
• Daniel Harms: He's the best player in Washington, and Bieniemy will run the offense through him. Better deep ball's from either QB will help too.

Reasons to be In on Brian Robinson Jr

• Andy Hicks: Volume plus a low ADP means value.
• Matt Montgomery: I am likely against the grain here, but Robinson, in four fewer games, produced more rushing yards than fellow running back Antonio Gibson.

Reasons to be In on Sam Howell

• Jeff Haseley: We have seen a glimpse of what Howell can do in the NFL, and it's not bad. I can see him taking a big step forward this season

Reasons to be In on No One

• Phil Alexander: This offense oozes mediocrity. Try winning your league elsewhere.

Players We Are Avoiding

• Brian Robinson Jr - 7
• Terry McLaurin - 5
• Sam Howell - 3
• Curtis Samuel - 2
• Jahan Dotson - 1
• All Receivers - 1
• No One - 1

Reasons to be Out on Brian Robinson Jr

• Jeff Bell: Unless passing usage shifts dramatically, Robinson is a goal-line-dependent version of Isiah Pacheco in a much worse offense.
• Dan Hindery: He was inefficient as a rookie and may lose playing time to Antonio Gibson, who seems a better fit for Eric Bienemy’s offense.
• Jason Wood: He’s just a guy who doesn’t do anything exceptionally well. Bieniemy will use a committee.
• Daniel Harms: While Robinson could lead the committee in Washington, he's a committee back that won't see many targets.
• Sam Wagman: To my love for Gibson this year, one of my fades is Robinson, whose value last year was driven by a ton of volume. He must get that volume and score to justify his ADP.
• Christian Williams: While he could be an early-down carry eater, he could also be relegated to a full-time backup role if Gibson emerges.
• Craig Lakins: I'm just not sure he's talented enough to produce at a high level in the NFL.

Reasons to be Out on Terry McLaurin

• Sigmund Bloom: Jahan Dotson could threaten his #1 target status.
• Chad Parsons: Yet to show a big fantasy ceiling and with quarterback ceiling uncertainty and Jahan Dotson entering Year 2 with Round 1 pedigree, color me skeptical McLaurin hits a career year in 2023.
• Nick Whalen: Love McLaurin's game. But Washington is getting more crowded for targets, and the QB situation isn't going to raise the ceiling for anyone.
• Phil Alexander: I'm a huge fan of McLaurin's game, but there are more exciting wide receivers (and running backs) in his ADP range.
• Andy Hicks: Has Allen Robinson part two written all over him. Looks the part, but not on the stat sheet.

Reasons to be Out on Sam Howell

• Dave Kluge: Simply put, I worry that Jacoby Brissett is the better quarterback. Ron Rivera’s on the hot seat, and Brissett could help him maintain his job more than an unproven fifth-rounder.
• Joey Wright: I do see him as an upgrade over Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke. Although, outside of two-quarterback leagues, there doesn’t feel like a need to roster him.
• Jeff Tefertiller: We have seen Sam Howell in action, and he will likely cede to Jacoby Brissett sooner than later if the team desires to win games.

Reasons to be Out on Curtis Samuel

• Ben Cummins: Samuel is not a priority for me in the later rounds, as Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are going to dominate targets in the offense.
• Ryan Weisse: The offense will flow through McLaurin, Dotson, Gibson, and Thomas. Not sure there will be anything left for Samuel.

Reasons to be Out on Jahan Dotson

• Jordan McNamara: Jahan Dotson was highly dependent on contested catches and was in the bottom 20 percentile in targets per route, so his target volume is a concern in 2023.

Reasons to be Out on All Receivers

• Matt Montgomery: I would avoid this passing offense like the plague. We don't know how Sam Howell will be, and this affects all options in the wide receiver and tight end units.

Reasons to be Out on No One

• Jeff Haseley: Nobody stands out as a poor value. Maybe Brian Robinson if Antonio Gibson holds him off.