New Orleans, Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid

As we race toward August, Footballguys.com will look at one team per day with our quick-hitting Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid, where we check out the overall mood of each team's offense and let you know the players we are in on (because they are great values at the cost it takes to acquire them) and who we're out on (because they are too expensive and won't give you a good return on that investment).

Go Deeper: See in-depth projections for every Saints player here >>>

This is a daily series that will stretch through July 31. If you like this and want another, come back tomorrow. Another will be here. And all 32 of them will be free to Insiders. To become an Insider, simply sign up with a free account.

And here are all of the Team Vibes and Players to Target and Avoid articles we've done so far:
New Orleans | NY Giants | NY Jets | Philadelphia | Pittsburgh | San Francisco | Seattle | Tampa Bay | Tennessee | Washington

Quick Hits

Want a brief overview? Here it is:

• General Vibes - Neutral
• We're In On at Cost - Chris Olave
• We're Out On at Cost - Alvin Kamara

Want a longer breakdown of how it's going in New Orleans? Read on.

Saints, Team Vibes

• Good - 0
• Neutral - 13
• Bad - 2

Staffers with Good Vibes

• None.

Staffers with Neutral Vibes

• Ben Cummins: Derek Carr provides a quarterback upgrade and is surrounded by multiple exciting young weapons.
• Phil Alexander: A below-average offense in 2022 improves to slightly below average with the addition of Derek Carr.
• Jeff Haseley: Derek Carr is an upgrade from 2022, but there are still uncertainties on both sides of the ball. Like Alvin Kamara, the Saints have a spark but no flame.
• Chad Parsons: Derek Carr will be a quarterback upgrade, and New Orleans has refused for years to truly enter any sort of rebuild with the division within reach annually.
• Jeff Bell: There are pieces, but Derek Carr's rough 2022 and Alvin Kamara's suspension clouds everything.
• Hutchinson Brown: There are some exciting pieces, but Derek Carr coming off a poor year, along with Kamara aging and dealing with off the field causes real concern.
• Jeff Tefertiller: Derek Carr is an upgrade from 2022, but there are still uncertainties on both sides of the ball. Like Alvin Kamara, the Saints have a spark, but no flame.
• Nick Whalen: Adding Derek Carr makes the Saints frontrunners for the division, but the team is getting weak and in a bad cap situation.
• Daniel Harms: Derek Carr gives them higher consistency at the QB position, but don't expect a high-volume passing attack.
• Dave Kluge: Derek Carr can operate an offense well enough to support multiple fantasy-relevant options.
• Craig Lakins: Adding Derek Carr is an upgrade from last year, but the uncertainty around Alvin Kamara's availability leaves the Saints in mysterious territory.
• Ryan Weisse: There are far too many questions for Derek Carr to answer, but you have to be excited about what he could mean for Chris Olave.
• Andy Hicks: How is Derek Carr in a new environment? This team will be two years removed from Sean Payton, and we have to be concerned about its direction.

Staffers with Bad Vibes

• Dan Hindery: This is a mediocre team that refuses to rebuild. 2022 Raiders vibes with the same middling quarterback.
• Jason Wood: Investing in Derek Carr makes little sense because so much of the roster needs a teardown and youth infusion. They’ll likely have a new coach and direction in 2024.

Players We Are Targeting

• Chris Olave - 7
• Kendre Miller - 4
• Juwan Johnson - 2
• Alvin Kamara - 1
• Rashid Shaheed - 1
• Jamaal Williams - 1

Reasons to be In on Chris Olave

• Jason Wood: His rookie season portends great things, and we know Derek Carr tends to latch onto a target and feed them a massive workload.
• Jeff Haseley: We saw how Derek Carr elevated Davante Adams in Las Vegas. If he can do the same with Chris Olave, it may result in a top-10 finish for the young receiver.
• Jeff Tefertiller: Even with high expectations for 2023, Olave is poised for a strong season with Landry gone and Thomas still not fully healthy. Carr may target him 200 times in 2023.
• Nick Whalen: He should've won Rookie of the Year, and now the quarterback was upgraded in the offseason.
• Daniel Harms: He's being underdrafted, and we just witnesses Derek Carr pepper Davante Adams with 180 targets a season ago.
• Ryan Weisse: Derek Carr is coming off a season hyper-targeting his top wideout. Olave was a top-25 receiver on just 119 targets. He has top-10 upside.
• Andy Hicks: Olave managed to record a 1000-yard season in his rookie year, and with better quarterback play, he should see a big increase in numbers in 2023, especially touchdowns.

Reasons to be In on Kendre Miller

• Ben Cummins: Factoring in cost, Miller is my bet to be the fantasy MVP of the 2023 season.
• Dan Hindery: If I had to take a swing, Miller would be the one given how open the Saints backfield looks with the uncertainty plaguing Alvin Kamara and the early-third-round draft capital used to select Miller.
• Hutchinson Brown: I love Kendre Miller. Based on talent, he was my #3 back coming out of the class. He can do it all on the ground and looks great catching the football.
• Dave Kluge: He didn’t get a ton of pre-draft hype, but he’s an underrated back and could step into an early-season role.

Reasons to be In on Juwan Johnson

• Phil Alexander: Carr is hyper-accurate throwing to short areas of the field. Athletic tight ends usually benefit from playing with him (see Jared Cook and Darren Waller).
• Craig Lakins: After 500 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022, Johnson is poised for an even more significant role this season, with Adam Trautman moving on to Denver. He also gets to play with the quarterback that helped Darren Waller rise to prominence.

Reasons to be In on Alvin Kamara

• Chad Parsons: Priced as if a suspension is a certainty, Kamara has yet to finish lower than RB15 in adjusted points-per-game in a season.

Reasons to be In on Rashid Shaheed

• Jeff Bell: A deep cut, but Michael Thomas's health is about the only thing preventing a major breakout.

Reasons to be In on Jamaal Williams

• Craig Lakins: Even if Alvin Kamara plays all season, Williams will be the short-yardage running back and get plenty of carries. He's coming off of a career year in Detroit, and I project he will keep that momentum going in 2023.

Players We Are Avoiding

• Alvin Kamara - 6
• Jamaal Williams - 3
• Michael Thomas - 3
• Juwan Johnson - 2
• Kendre Miller - 1

Reasons to be Out on Alvin Kamara

• Ben Cummins: Alvin Kamara isn’t the player he once was, is facing a suspension, and has legitimate competition for touches now in Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams.
• Jason Wood: A likely suspension, declining skills, and uninspired offense now that Sean Payton is gone makes him a rotational option.
• Jeff Haseley: Not only is a suspension looming for Kamara, but his level of play has dwindled since the Saints have moved on from Drew Brees.
• Hutchinson Brown: He looked rough last year, and we are also looking at a potential suspension coming his way. His price is cheap, which makes him a bit enticing, but he is likely someone I will not invest in.
• Jeff Tefertiller: Between his possible suspension and the Saints bringing in two good backs (Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller), we should not expect much in 2023.
• Daniel Harms: Question marks along the offensive line, another year older, and a suspension is likely incoming.

Reasons to be Out on Jamaal Williams

• Phil Alexander: The short touchdown opportunities that inflated Williams' fantasy value in Detroit won't be there in New Orleans.
• Chad Parsons: Williams was a touchdown maven in Detroit, sharpshooting short-range opportunities on a depth chart without clarity (or health). Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller offer more stability than Detroit's iteration a year ago.
• Jeff Bell: Williams saw no usage in the passing game in Detroit. He is at an elevated ADP. If touchdown regression hits hard, he will not make lineups.

Reasons to be Out on Michael Thomas

• Dave Kluge: The player we saw in 2019 probably isn’t coming back.
• Craig Lakins: Though he's only being drafted as the WR44, Thomas hasn't had worthwhile fantasy production in any of the previous three seasons. I'm out on him in the 9th round.
• Andy Hicks: 10 games in three years are not the stuff you look for in a WR. This isn’t 2019. Thomas is now over 30, has chronic foot issues, and Drew Brees is long gone, as is Sean Payton.

Reasons to be Out on Juwan Johnson

• Dan Hindery: Not buying the sleeper hype here. Michael Thomas and Foster Moreau will both eat into his targets.
• Ryan Weisse: He won't cost you much in your draft, but he might not be a sleeper. He could end up in a timeshare with Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill.

Reasons to be Out on Kendre Miller

• Nick Whalen: The Saints have a bottom 1/3 offensive line, spent over $8M guaranteed to Jamaal Williams, and Alvin Kamara is still on the roster.