Sunday Showdown Week 9

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Buffalo Bills are heading to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals as 2.5-point underdogs with a 50.5-point total. Neither team owns the records we would expect at this point in the season, but they've both shown flashes of the teams they were expected to be. For the Bengals, they've improved as Joe Burrow has gotten further and further from his pre-season calf strain. Over the past three games, he is averaging nearly 40 attempts and has thrown at least two touchdowns. He's also been sacked nine times over that span and has thrown two interceptions. For Buffalo, they've been more of a mixed bag. As a passer, Allen has exactly two touchdowns and one interception in each of his last four games, though his yardage total is all over the map. The most important note is that he has rushed for a touchdown in all but three games on the year. Drafting a player who is a near-lock for three touchdowns is a no-brainer at any cost. The difficult question to answer is who to pair him with while still stacking the Bengals.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Joe Mixon - Ribs - Probable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Ja'Marr Chase
2. Joe Burrow
3. Josh Allen
4. Stefon Diggs

BILLS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen $11,400 - Captain or Flex

Allen is the most expensive player on the slate. His median projection is also a full three points better than the next-highest projection in Stefon Diggs. He and Diggs make up the highest projected pairing, but they're also significantly more expensive than Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. With so many viable options in the mid-price range, it will be more difficult than usual to heavily stack Allen. He better serves as a Flex option with one receiver while stacking the Bengals. He can also be played at Captain with just one pass catcher as he's likely to rush for at least one touchdown.

RUNNING BACK

James Cook $6,200 - Flex

After a couple of weeks of a near 50-50 split with Latavius Murray, Cook regained his starting role with a 67% snap share last week. The Bills followed up his 15 touches for 73 yards by signing Leonard Fournette. The addition may have more to do with Murray, or Bills GM Brandon Beane could've simply seen an opportunity to add an experienced veteran. Either way, the back-field has gotten much more difficult to project, and Cooks' workload will take at least a mild hit.

RECEIVER

Stefon Diggs $11,000 - Captain or Flex

Diggs' workload this season has been a breath of fresh air. Not only for the fantasy community but for the Bills, who don't have to worry if he's happy with his target share. He's earned at least 11 opportunities in all but two games on the year. The difficulty with this slate is that the pairing of Diggs with Allen is far pricier than Ja'Marr Chase with Joe Burrow, but both combinations have comparable ceilings. Rostering all four players is nearly impossible, so the decision between playing either Diggs or Allen must be made.

Gabe Davis $7,400 - Flex

Davis' role last week was different from any role we've seen him in, and it resulted in a price hike. He was targeted 12 times and managed just 87 yards. In the past, we've seen him manage the same yardage total on a quarter of his Week 8 targets. Expect him to return to his typical boom-or-bust role where his price is a touch too expensive to consider him a priority in small-field tournaments.

Dalton Kincaid $6,800 - Flex

Kincaid is expected to see a massive snap share once again with Dawson Knox still sidelined. Last week, he caught 5 passes for 65 yards and a touchdown, and he nearly has a second. He and Davis are both too expensive, but Kincaid is the safer bet while adding some much-needed salary relief.

Khalil Shakir $3,400 - Flex

Shakir's role last week was a shock. Before Week 8, he split snaps with Deonte Harty and was barely involved. He then nearly doubled his previous season-high snap share en route to 6 catches for 92 yards. If the last game was a tryout, Shakir made the cut. His price somehow remained unchained. For those who like to live life on the edge, the only viable way to fit Burrow, Allen, Diggs, and Chase would be to play Shakir at Captain.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Leonard Fournette $200 - Flex

Omitting Murray while including Fournette in the player pool was a difficult decision, but Murray's snap share shrunk for two considerably last week after splitting the backfield with Cooks. It appeared as though the Bills were not happy with what they saw from Murray after his expanded role. Even if the backup duties are split, Fournette is the minimum salary and can catch a couple of check-downs.

Deonte Harty $200 - Flex

Harty was a massive letdown last week after the majority of the field rostered him over Shakir. He still earns designed opportunities and wouldn't take more than a catch to pay off his salary.

BENGALS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Joe Burrow $10,200 - Captain or Flex

Burrow has returned to form after a rocky start to the year. While he is attempting a healthy amount of passes, he's also taking a ton of sacks and turning the ball over. This may not bode well against an opportunistic Bills defense who are getting Von Miller more and more acclimated. The deciding factor for Burrow is that he is $1,200 less expensive than Allen and is the home favorite. He's also significantly easier to stack as Higgins and Boyd are both viable and are far cheaper than Davis and Kincaid, respectively.

RUNNING BACK

Joe Mixon $8,000 - Flex

Mixon is handling 75% of the snaps and has not earned less than 15 opportunities all season. He's one of the safest options on the slate given his reasonable salary. He will also be extremely popular as most people will land on Mixon when they decide to omit one of Allen, Chase, or Diggs.

RECEIVER

Ja'Marr Chase $10,800 - Captain or Flex

As Burrow has improved, so has Chase's workload. Over the past three games, Chase has been targeted a whopping 44 times. His median projection is comparable to Diggs, but he will be rostered more often due to the price disparity between Allen and Burrow. Given the pricing of the Bengals offense, Chase makes the most sense as part of a triple-stack with Burrow at Captain.

Tee Higgins $6,600 - Flex

Higgins' recent snap share has likely been hindered due to Chase's massive involvement. He's still earned 10 targets over the last two weeks and may have been hampered by his recovering rib injury. Higgins' salary usually lands somewhere around $8,000 along with Mixon's, so this is a rare opportunity to easily stack the Bengals' core options.

Tyler Boyd $5,400 - Flex

Boyd was targeted seven or more times in Weeks 2-6. Last week, his involvement fell off, as he was targeted just three times. His salary provides much-needed relief to afford stacking Burrow with multiple receivers and still fit Josh Allen. Boyd's floor is safe as he plays most of the snaps and could pay off his salary, even at the low end of his target spectrum.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Irv Smith Jr. $1,600 - Flex

Smith is playing roughly 60% of the snaps and has multiple targets in each of his last two outings. He managed a season-high four catches last week, but he also fumbled. His price likely increases without the fumble, so he's a bit of a value to go with Bengals stacks.