OVERVIEW
NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
GAME THEORY
The Kansas City Chiefs are heading to Metlife to take on the New York Jets as 9-point favorites. The total is set at 41.5. It's no secret that the path to success on this slate flows through the Chiefs. Fortunately, their wide receiver room is all over the place, making it easy to uniquely stack Patrick Mahomes II. Last week, 5 of their wide receivers played over 35% of the snaps. Given the lack of production from Marquez Valdes-Scantling and even Skyy Moore, this may be the week they are passed up in playing time by the younger receivers.
INJURY ROUND-UP
No injuries to note.
CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION
CHIEFS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Patrick Mahomes II $12,400 – Captain or Flex
Mahomes is going to be the most popular Captain, with good reason. In states with lower game totals, it’s easier for a quarterback to find their way into the optimal Captain spot. This game is a dream for people who enjoy 20-max and 150-max contests as Mahomes can be paired with a vast array of receiver combinations.
RUNNING BACK
Isiah Pacheco $8,400 – Captain or Flex
Pacheco is averaging around 45% of the snaps in a difficult backfield to project. Fortunately, he’s getting goal-line carries this season, and he’s catching the ball out of the backfield. As a 9-point favorites, he’s likely to receive over 15 touches.
Jerick McKinnon $6,800 – Flex
McKinnon scored two touchdowns last week, but his usage has been down significantly since last season. He only has seven receptions the season to go along with three rush attempts. He’s significantly overpriced and should only be considered as a unique stacking option in large-field tournaments.
RECEIVER
Travis Kelce $11,000 - Captain or Flex
Of all Mahomes’ viable receiving options in this game, Kelce is the one constant. He’s been targeted 17 times through his first two games, which is essentially his floor. He’s also caught a touchdown in each contest. His Captain roster percentage will be lower than usual with Mahomes being so popular this week.
Skyy Moore $6,400 - Flex
There is not much rhyme or reason to the Chiefs’ wide receiver pricing. Moore gets the nod as the most expensive receiver, but he’s only caught seven passes in three weeks. Of the current starters, his role is the most secure. He will be the most popular wide receiver by default.
Kadarius Toney $5,600 – Flex
All of the Chiefs’ receivers are viable for large-field tournaments, but Toney is the least viable of the group. He was all but benched last week, playing on just 3% of the snaps.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling $5,400 – Flex
Valdes-Scantling has been disappointing, but as the veteran of the group, his role is likely safe for at least one more week. He was almost passed in snap share by Rashee Rice in Week 3, so it will be close once again. Valdes-Scantling has had a few key catches thus far that have shown the Chiefs still need him on the field.
Rashee Rice $4,800 – Flex
Rice is the riser of the group. We will want to be a week early to his coming-out party by prioritizing him over some of the more expensive options.
Justin Watson $2,400 – Flex
Watson is priced like a punt, but he played 40% of the snaps last week. His deep-ball viability makes him an excellent play, especially since he relieves so much salary.
UNDER THE RADAR –
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire $3,000 – Flex
Edwards-Helaire is playing on roughly 30% of the snaps and is getting work on key downs. He’s managed to create a true three-headed backfield after looking like a cut candidate going into the season. He is a viable option in large field tournaments.
Justyn Ross $200 – Flex
Ross is widely considered a first-round talent, and he finally appears to be healthy after missing his first season. He’s carved out a strong role-playing on 38% of the snaps last week. He’s only been targeted twice, but he’s worth sprinkling in 150-max contests given his playing time.
JETS OFFENSE
QUARTERBACK
Zach Wilson $9,000 – Flex
Even at a reasonable $9,000, Wilson is still a difficult name to click. The only reason to consider him is because he is a quarterback he has access to one of the highest ceilings, and he will be rostered less than 25% of the time
RUNNING BACK
Breece Hall $7,800 – Captain or Flex
Hall received 13 touches a week after claiming his team lost because he only touched the ball 4 times. With those touches, he managed a measly 19 total yards. The whole offense is struggling right now, but Hall has the upside to be the highest scorer of the slate, even over Kelce and Mahomes.
Dalvin Cook $6,200 – Flex
Cook’s role does not warrant consideration at $6,200. In small field tournaments, both he and Mckinnon can be comfortably omitted in this range.
RECEIVER
Garrett Wilson $9,600 – Captain or Flex
Wilson is a copy and paste from Hall’s write-up. The offense is in an awful spot, but when we’re looking to get unique, it’s not a horrible idea to put one of the best receivers in the league in our Captain spot for just $9,600. This is one of the rare instances where it’s okay to play a receiver at Captain without their quarterback in the flex.
Allen Lazard $4,000 – Flex
The Jets receivers have been appropriately priced given their recent production with Zach Wilson. At $4,000 Lazard is fine, and functions as a unique salary saver as he’s in the same range as the more popular Chiefs options.
UNDER THE RADAR –
This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.
Tyler Conklin $1,600 – Flex
Conklin has earned 11 targets through the last two weeks. He’s playing the majority of the tight-end snaps. He’s the best punt play on the slate.
Randall Cobb $1,000 – Flex
Cobb hasn’t done much this season, but he’s on the field over 70% of the time, which is the most playing time we’ll get from a $1,000 player all season.