Sunday Showdown Week 3

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest-rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders as 3-point underdogs. The total is set at 43, and it still feels high for these two offenses. Pittsburgh pulled off an unlikely victory last week over the Cleveland Browns, but the offense was of little help. An incredible long touchdown by George Pickens masked what was an otherwise wretched night for the Steelers' offense. Pricing will gravitate the field towards Pickett stacks, even as a road underdog. The Raiders will come with a lower roster percentage than they should, and they have a slightly higher scoring ceiling. Neither quarterback is particularly enticing, and we've found ourselves in yet another slate where we feel comfortable omitting the quarterbacks entirely from some builds.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Diontae Johnson – Hamstring – Out

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Davante Adams
2. Josh Jacobs
3. Jimmy Garoppolo
4. George Pickens
5. Kenny Pickett

STEELERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Kenny Pickett $9,800 – Captain or Flex

Pickett threw three interceptions through his first two games. He was bailed out in the showdown slate against the Browns by a long Pickens touchdown. He would have otherwise been nowhere close to the optimal lineup. It’s hard to point the finger entirely at Pickett, or Matt Canada, but the offense is difficult to invest in either way. With such a low total and cheap stacking options, Pickett just barely makes the cut for Captain consideration.

RUNNING BACK

Najee Harris $8,800 – Flex

Harris and Jaylen Warren are on the same price trajectory as Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard a season ago. By the next Steelers showdown slate, they will be priced similarly. The snap share was split nearly down the middle last week. Harris handled only 11 touches. He’s far too expensive for his current role.

Jaylen Warren $6,400 – Flex

While Harris is too expensive, Warren is too cheap. There’s a real chance that he will handle more touches than Harris this week. He caught 4 passes for 66 yards last week in addition to 6 carries. In a game where the Steelers should be trailing, Warren will get plenty of work.

RECEIVER

George Pickens $9,200 - Captain or Flex

With Johnson sidelined, Pickens saw 10 targets in Week 2. He only caught 4 of them but managed a huge day regardless thanks to a 71-yard touchdown. $9,200 is going to feel pricey, but Pickens has the talent and the usage to warrant consideration in all builds.

Pat Freiermuth $6,200 - Flex

After a slow start to the season, Freiermuth’s snap share jumped to 76% in Week 2. Unfortunately, the increased playing time did not result in more opportunities. He was targeted just once. Freiermuth’s price is an example of why the field may be inclined to stack Pittsburgh, but the volume isn’t there for much of their offense.

Allen Robinson II $5,000 – Flex

Robinson is a reminder that two weeks is not enough time to project trends. He appeared to be a valuable off-season addition in Week 1, then disappeared in Week 2. Given his price between Freiermuth and Austin, he should carry the lowest roster percentage.

Calvin Austin III $4,200 – Flex

Austin caught just one pass last week after being elevated to the starting lineup with Johnson sidelined. He’s been targeted 10 times through two weeks but has managed just 47 receiving yards. His salary bump puts him in the same salary range as the kickers, both of which I prefer over Austin.

RAIDERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jimmy Garoppolo $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Given how doom and gloom the Steelers’ portion of this write-up has been, we must love the Raiders’ offense, right? Well, Garoppolo has attempted just 50 passes in two weeks. He has not thrown for over 200 yards. He’s also thrown three interceptions. He earns Captain consideration as the home favorite with a low roster percentage, but this is another week we can feel comfortable fielding lineups with 0 quarterbacks.

RUNNING BACK

Josh Jacobs $10,800 – Captain or Flex

Jacobs rushed for -2 yards on 9 carries last week. Fortunately, he caught five passes to salvage some sort of fantasy production. No player on this slate projects well, but Jacobs has the safest floor, paired with one of the highest ceilings.

RECEIVER

Davante Adams $11,600 – Captain or Flex

Adams caught six passes in each of his first two games. He and Garoppolo connected on an impressive timing route for a touchdown, which shows hope going forward. In a game with a low total, that feels like it could still go under, it’s not a bad idea to pay up for the safer options with high ceilings.

Jakobi Meyers $8,600 – Flex

Meyers got off to an incredible start in Week 1, then was inactive in Week 2. He’s back this week and it appears his familiarity with the Patriots’ system has got him on the same page as Garoppolo early. Stacking either quarterback won’t feel great, but the Raiders have three of the top receiving options in Adams, Jacobs, and Meyers.

Hunter Renfrow $3,000 – Flex

It appears Renfrow’s time in the spotlight has come to an end. He’s been targeted just once this season. Even with Meyers out last week, Renfrow only played 65% of the snaps. At just $3,000 he is worth keeping in the player pool for large-field tournaments, but Austin Hooper is a stronger option at $600 less.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Austin Hooper $2,400 – Flex

Hooper is splitting tight end duties with rookie Michael Mayer. While both players are worthy of consideration as punt plays, Hooper is more likely to find himself in the optimal lineup as the reliable veteran. Both players will carry very low roster percentages and will help us afford the expensive Las Vegas stacks.