Sunday Showdown Week 2

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lower-rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Miami Dolphins head to New England to take on the Patriots as 2.5-point favorites, which feels a touch low. The total is set at 46.5. The small spread paired with the value for New England will make it easier to be unique while stacking Miami, who are the most likely to blow the doors off this game total. The Dolphins have a condensed running back rotation, while the Patriot’s backfield is yet to be sorted out.

INJURY ROUND-UP

DeVante Parker – Knee – Questionable

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Tyreek Hill
2. Tua Tagovailoa
3. Jaylen Waddle
4. Rhamondre Stevenson
5. Mac Jones

DOLPHINS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Tua Tagovailoa $11,200 – Captain or Flex

Tagovailoa silenced the critics in Week 1 while throwing for 466 yards and connecting with Hill on multiple deep balls. Contrary to last season, the Patriots showed the ability to succeed in the passing game in Week 1. A similar output from Mac Jones would bode well for this game hitting the over and allowing Tagovailoa to pass at a similar rate to last week.

RUNNING BACK

Raheem Mostert $8,000 – Flex

Mostert quietly handled over 70% of the snaps in Week 1. His role should remain consistent even after De’Von Achane is activated. His price tag is a bit higher than most people will want to pay, which will keep his roster percentage from getting too high.

RECEIVER

Tyreek Hill $12,600 - Captain or Flex

Hill is now the highest-priced player in this young 2023 season. Oddly enough, he only played on 66% of the snaps last week. This is in stark contrast to how he and Jaylen Waddle were utilized last year. While playing about 20% less than his 2022 average, he still managed to earn 15 targets. He’s the highest projected player on the slate and is worth including regardless of his roster percentage as we look to stack Tagovailoa.

Jaylen Waddle $10,200 – Captain or Flex

DraftKings did an excellent job respecting Waddle and making it more difficult to stack the offense most likely to succeed in the passing game. In years past he was priced around $9,000. He was targeted 5 times in Week 1 making 4 grabs for 78 yards. He is capable of having performances similar to Hill, even if he’s a less comfortable name to click on.

Durham Smythe $3,800 – Flex

Smyth played on 100% of the snaps in Week 1. He also earned 7 targets even though he only caught 3. He is far too cheap given his involvement, and is a key piece to heavily stacking Tagovailoa.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Braxton Berrios $2,000 – Flex

It appears one of the Dolphins' offseason points of emphasis was keeping Waddle and Hill’s usage up while decreasing their snap share. This allowed Berrios to play on over half the snaps. If he can earn 3 targets he will have no problem making good on his price tag.

Salvon Ahmed $1,000 – Flex

Ahmed will have a talented De’Von Achane to contend with for touches in Week 2, but he’s $3,000 cheaper and is likely to handle the backup duties for at least one more week.

PATRIOTS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Mac Jones $9,000 – Captain or Flex

Typically, the quarterback of the underdog team is difficult to stack as Captain. In this instance, Jones has enough cheap weapons to consider him as Captain in a 3-3 build. He threw for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 1 and now will have DeVante Parker back.

RUNNING BACK

Rhamondre Stevenson $9,400 – Captain or Flex

Stevenson’s production in Week 1 was disappointing but we must remember he was facing the best defensive line in the NFL. He still earned a 73% snap share. He caught all 6 of his targets for 64 yards in addition to 12 carries. He is worthy of Captain consideration with that workload.

Ezekiel Elliott $5,800 – Flex

Elliott is expensive given his 35% snap share, but he did earn 7 targets. In a similar game environment this week, he is worthy of keeping in the player pool as a PPR option.

Receiver

Kendrick Bourne $7,200 - Flex

Juju Smith-Schuster was expected to be the Patriot’s top option and is now not even in consideration one week later. Bourne was the team’s de facto top option and earned 11 targets on 91% of the snaps. He is far too cheap if this usage continues. Parker’s return affects the rookies but shouldn’t change much for Bourne.

Hunter Henry $5,600 – Flex

Henry submitted his bid for top catch of the year on one of the most important plays of the game. He was active for 71% of the team’s snaps even with the addition of Mike Gesicki. He’s an excellent stacking option for Jones.

DeVante Parker $5,000 – Flex

Parker is not the most exciting player in the league but given the blunders from both Douglas and Boutte in Week 1, his return will be much anticipated. He will regain his role as a top target for Jones at just $5,000.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Demario Douglas $1,800 – Flex

Douglas was targeted 7 times on 42% of the snaps. He will be relegated to a rotational role with the return of Parker.

Kayshon Boutte $600 – Flex

Boutte was the second wide receiver behind Bourne and surprisingly ahead of Smith-Schuster last week. He disappointed with no catches on 4 targets. It remains to be seen who loses more work between Boutte and Smith-Schuster with the return of Parker. Especially since Douglas performed much better.