Najee Harris stood out in terms of volume, ranking 12th among running backs last year with 18.8 opportunities per game. The Steelers further bolstered their run-blocking unit by drafting offensive tackle Broderick Jones and tight end Darnell Washington. These factors justify drafters' optimism about Harris as he enters his third season. However, it's crucial to examine some potential issues regarding his 2023 outlook. He's been more of a consistent performer than a big-play threat, and unless quarterback Kenny Pickett significantly improves, it could be challenging for Harris to justify his draft-day value.

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The Positives

Harris, a 230-pound former first-round draft pick, is entering just his third NFL season. He will spend the entire 2023 season at just 25 years old, demonstrating early in his career that he can handle substantial workloads:

Harris' 1,263 total yards and 10 total touchdowns last year were notable, especially since Pittsburgh's offensive line finished the season ranked just 16th by Pro Football Focus despite fortunate injury luck and starting the same five linemen all season. The draft additions of offensive tackle Broderick Jones and tight end Darnell Washington could significantly improve the Steelers' offensive line for the upcoming season and enhance the run blocking Harris will receive.

Concerning Metrics

However, Harris' 13.2 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring last year ranked only 20th, tied with Ezekiel Elliott. This is worrying. Following the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger after Harris' rookie year, his targets dropped by 44%, his receptions by 45%, and his receiving yards by 51% in 2022.

When comparing the 2022 data between Harris and his backup, Jaylen Warren, some statistics raise concerns about Harris' performance.

Surprisingly, Warren outperformed Harris in several Pro Football Focus metrics in 2022, including Elusive Rating, Explosive Run Rate, Yards After Contact Per Attempt, and Yards Per Route Run. This implies that on a per-touch basis, Warren was superior at shedding/avoiding tackles, producing big-play runs, breaking tackles, and being an efficient route runner and pass catcher.

Comparatively, Harris was rather poor in these areas. To illustrate this, let's juxtapose Harris with two other running backs currently being drafted within one round of him, Rhamondre Stevenson and Breece Hall.

Harris simply shouldn't be drafted within just one round of running backs more talented than him. These metrics help explain Harris' poor fantasy points per game ranking, despite touching the ball 313 times, the sixth most in the league. While handling such a significant workload is an important skill, being a dynamic playmaker when the ball is in your hands is equally crucial. That's where Harris lags behind. This creates uncertainty in projecting a significantly substantial workload again, especially with Warren's stock on the rise.

Despite Warren's limited playing time as an undrafted rookie, expecting his growth within the offense is realistic, given his impressive performance. Although it's not plausible to expect Warren to maintain his extraordinary efficiency with additional work, Harris' talent isn't sufficient to withstand a reduction in his workload. That's the main takeaway.

An Average Offensive Environment

Coaching and play-calling are as crucial to offensive performance as the players themselves. Unfortunately, the terms efficiency and success should not be expected from the Steelers offense in 2023. Surprisingly, Pittsburgh has retained offensive coordinator Matt Canada, who will be returning for his third season. Canada coached in college for 25 consecutive years before finally transitioning to the NFL in 2020. He spent one season as the Steelers quarterbacks coach before being appointed as the offensive coordinator in 2021. His offensive strategies over the past two seasons have failed to inspire confidence, ranking just 21st in points per game (20.2) and 23rd in yards per game (315) in 2021 after finishing 26th in points per game (18.1) and 23rd in yards per game (323) the previous season. Canada's track record has been unsuccessful, and he lacks the years of coaching and learning experience in the NFL to fall back on.

An above-average quarterback might be able to counteract the negative impact of a poor offensive coordinator. However, unfortunately, the Steelers do not have such a player. For the most part, Kenny Pickett's performance during his college years was unimpressive.

Kenny Pickett's Collegiate Production

Pickett had an impressive year in 2021, but as a fifth-year senior, he was projected to be a Day 3 pick before that final collegiate season. A more exceptional rookie year could have helped dispel concerns of him being a one-year wonder, but unfortunately, that didn't occur. Pickett averaged only 190 passing yards per game and threw seven touchdowns compared to nine interceptions in his first year as the Steelers' starter. Even with drastic improvement, chances are good that Pickett is destined to be an average NFL quarterback at best, which aligns with his film. Although he seems to believe otherwise, Pickett lacks the athleticism to evade pressure consistently. All too frequently, he averts his gaze from his target and tries to create plays, which simply doesn't suit his style of play.

Price-Adjusted Plan of Attack

Harris' Underdog Best Ball ADP is currently 38.1, with an average ranking of 40.4 among our staff, and I have personally ranked him #47 overall.

The draft landscape is changing, with elite quarterbacks rising in ADP while running backs are falling. While Harris may seem like a value pick at the 3/4 turn, selecting him incurs a significant opportunity cost. Other running backs like Breece Hall, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry may be a bit pricier, but they offer more reliable profiles. Additionally, choosing Harris over an elite quarterback, tight end, or wide receiver could negatively impact your team.

Final Thoughts

The increasing popularity of best ball tournaments makes it understandable that many will diversify their player exposures. If Harris drops in drafts and becomes available toward the end of the fourth round, he'll be a more appealing choice. However, given his current cost, it's prudent to limit exposure to him. Dynasty owners should contemplate selling him while his value remains high, while redraft owners should prioritize more dynamic players in better offenses. The goal is to make informed selections at the top of fantasy drafts by adding talented players with reliable season-long opportunities to your team. Harris' performance last season wasn't sufficient to warrant consideration in the first three rounds of drafts. Unless Pickett makes significant strides in his second year, Harris will likely find himself in a mediocre offense that doesn't align with his playstyle. Despite having the fifth-most rushing attempts last season, Harris only ranked 24th in rushing plays of 10+ yards. Avoid falling for the Najee Harris hype in 2023.