With Full Motivation with Playoff Ramifications

• Denver Broncos
• Miami Dolphins
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Atlanta Falcons

Teams With Little or Nothing To Play For

• Kansas City Chiefs
• Buffalo Bills
• Houston Texans
• Philadelphia Eagles
• Los Angeles Rams

Cash Games

Quarterbacks

The Buccaneers are all-in to make the playoffs and Maker Mayfield is cooking. He ranks third in passing yards per game (267.4) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.4). Mayfield leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks ninth in EPA/Play, 12th in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). The Buccaneers are 13.5-point home favorites and Mayfield gets a Saints defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed.

The Broncos are motivated to make the playoffs. Bo Nix ranks tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6) and runs a Broncos offense that ranks 12th in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and sixth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). The Chiefs are resting their starters, making the Broncos 9.5-point home favorites.

The Falcons are full steam ahead to make the playoffs and Michael Penix Jr. is in the dream spot at home against the Panthers atrocious defense. Carolina ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

The Falcons are full steam ahead to make the playoffs and are 7.5-point home favorites. Bijan Robinson has the dream matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed. Robinson is a total stud. He ranks sixth in opportunities per game (21.4) and fourth in total yards per game (107.1).

The Buccaneers are all-in to make the playoffs. Bucky Irving's averages over his past three games: 20 opportunities per (would rank 10th if over the full season) and 131.7 total yards per (would rank second if over the full season). The Buccaneers are 13.5-point home favorites and Irving will feast against a Saints defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Rush EPA Allowed.

Rico Dowdle's averages over his past six games: 22 opportunities per (would rank sixth if over the full season) and 111.7 total yards per game (would rank third if over the full season). Dowdle is at home against a Commanders defense that ranks 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed. He's shockingly priced at just $5,800.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans needs 85 yards to keep his 1,000 receiving-yard streak alive. The Buccaneers are 13.5-point home favorites and Evans gets a Saints defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed. He's a cash game lock.

Brian Thomas Jr. ranks fifth in receiving yards (1,179) and fifth in receiving touchdowns (10). He's a dynamic playmaker and the true alpha in Jacksonville's offense. Thomas gets to play in the dome in Indianapolis against a middle-of-the-pack pass defense (17th in Dropback EPA Allowed).

Malik Nabers ranks fourth in receptions (104) and eighth in receiving yards (1,140). He gets an Eagles defense resting their starters.

The Falcons are in line to make the playoffs and Drake London is in the dream spot at home against the Panthers atrocious defense. Carolina ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed. London is the clear-cut alpha in Atlanta, leading the Falcons' offense in all receiving categories (90 catches on 140 targets for 1,084 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns).

Adam Thielen is 34 years old but he's playing like he's 24 again. Thielen caught 5 of 6 targets for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. He gets a Falcons defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jalen McMillan has six touchdown receptions over his past four games. Baker Mayfield is on a heater and that's trickling down to McMillan, who has been on the same page with his quarterback as of late. The Buccaneers are 13.5-point home favorites and McMillan gets a Saints defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed. He's priced at just $5,100.

The Broncos are motivated to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are resting their starters, making the Broncos 9.5-point home favorites. Courtland Sutton is the clear alpha in Denver's passing attack. He has seen eight or more targets in eight of his past nine games.

Tight Ends

Trey McBride has solidified himself as an elite fantasy tight end for years to come. His ranks at the tight end position this season: third in targets (128), second in receptions (104), and second in receiving yards (1,081). He's at home and the 49ers have nothing to play for.

Cade Otton is doubtful. Payne Durham's offensive snap percentages over the past two games: 93% and 77%. He saw seven targets in Week 16 and caught a touchdown in Week 17. He's priced at just $3,200 and gets a Saints defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed.

Head coach Brian Callahan had extremely positive things to say about Chig Okonkwo this week, praising his growth and development throughout the season as an all-around tight end. Okonkwo's targets over his past three games correlate with that: 10, 11, and 7. Okonkwo is priced at just $3,800 and is at home against a Texans team with nothing to play for.

Team Defenses

The Buccaneers are all-in to make the playoffs while the Saints' injury-riddled offense limps to the finish line. Tampa Bay is playing at home and they're 13.5-point favorites. The Saints have the third-lowest Implied Team Total (15) of the week.

The Titans are 1.5-point home favorites because the Texans have nothing to play for and are projected to be resting starters. Houston's offensive line struggled mightily this season even when the starters were in.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Tyler Huntley struggled to replace Tua Tagovailoa earlier in the season but had just arrived on the team. Having had time to learn the playbook and get acclimated, Huntley threw for 225 yards and 1 touchdown and ran for 52 yards and 1 touchdown last week. Huntley is a dual-threat, is priced at just $4,800, and gets a Jets defense that already has their eyes on the offseason and ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Drew Lock threw for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran for 1 touchdown last week. Yet, few people expect him to repeat that performance. The Eagles are resting their starters and Lock now has four starts under his belt over the past few months.

Joshua Dobbs is a dual threat who ran for a touchdown last week while playing on only five snaps. He gets the start for Kyle Shanahan, is priced at just $4,000, and gets to attack a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropack EPA Allowed.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams will be rested, which puts Blake Corum in line to make his first NFL start. Corum was a talented and decorated prospect who was drafted in the third round less than a year ago. Sean McVay reported this week Corum should get a heavy workload. The Rams are playing at home against a Seahawks team already eliminated from playoff contention.

Over his past three games, Isaac Guerendo has averaged 100.7 total yards per game (would rank ninth if over the full season). He gets to attack a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. has had a fantastic season, rushing for 780 yards and racking up 277 receiving yards. Tracy's 1,057 total yards rank 37th most in the entire NFL. He received 23 opportunities last week and gets an Eagles team resting their starters.

De'Von Achane saw just 12 opportunities and put up only 38 total yards last week. Recency bias will keep his ownership low. Yet, the Dolphins still have a chance to make the playoffs and Achane gets to attack a Jets defense that already has their eyes on the offseason and ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Rush EPA Allowed.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill is questionable but expected to play. However, it is important to note the Dolphins play in the late window. Tyler Huntley struggled to replace Tua Tagovailoa earlier in the season but had just arrived on the team. Having had time to learn the playbook and get acclimated, Huntley threw for 225 yards and 1 touchdown last week. Hill caught all nine of his targets for 105 yards. Hill gets a Jets defense that already has their eyes on the offseason and ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Marvin Harrison Jr. has had a disappointing season compared to expectations. It would make sense for Arizona and Kyler Murray to feature him in hopes of building positive momentum for next season. Harrison is at home and the 49ers have nothing to play for. His $5,500 price tag is intriguing.

Jalen Coker's offensive snap percentages over his past three games: 87%, 82%, and 87%. He's a full-time player and put up over 100 yards and 1 touchdown a few weeks ago. He'll be low-owned and is priced affordably at $4,100. He gets a Falcons defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Brandin Cooks saw a season-high eight targets last week without CeeDee Lamb. He's playing at home, is priced at just $4,700, and gets a Commanders defense that ranks middle-of-the-pack in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

The Texans have been solid against the pass this season, which could limit Calvin Ridley's ownership. However, Houston has nothing to play for this week. Ridley is Tennessee's alpha in the passing game, is priced at a palatable $5,400, and is at home projected to play against backups for most of the game.

Darnell Mooney has had a few down weeks with Michael Penix Jr. but that doesn't mean they don't or won't have a connection. Penix has started just two games. Do not overreact to the small sample size. Mooney offers big-play ability at low ownership in a great matchup. He's in the dream spot at home against the Panthers atrocious defense. Carolina ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 31st in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers has solidified himself as the best tight end in fantasy football for years to come and it would be no surprise to see him end his record-breaking season on a high note. Bowers leads all tight ends this year in targets (139), receptions (108), and receiving yards (1,144).

Jonnu Smith's athletic gifts finally translated into an elite fantasy season. His ranks at the tight end position: fourth in targets (97), fourth in receptions (79), fourth in receiving yards (828), and third in receiving touchdowns (7). He gets a Jets defense that already has their eyes on the offseason and ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed and 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jake Ferguson was a letdown last week catching just three passes for 18 yards. However, he saw a respectable five targets and CeeDee Lamb remains out for another game. Recency bias will keep Ferguson's ownership low and he gets a Commanders defense that ranks middle-of-the-pack in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed.

Team Defenses

The Dolphins are all in to try to make the playoffs while the Jets likely already have their eyes on their offseason and vacation plans. The Dolphins are 1.5-point favorites, are priced relatively affordably, and will be low-owned.

The Broncos are motivated to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are resting their starters, making the Broncos 9.5-point home favorites. The Broncos starting defense against Chiefs backups and Carson Wentz offers high upside.

Favorite Tournament Stacks

• Tyler Huntley, Tyreek Hill, and Jonnu Smith

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Baker Mayfield
• Bijan Robinson
• Bucky Irving
• Mike Evans
• Jalen McMillan

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Brock Bowers