Conference Championship Games
- Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Eagles -6.5
- Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Chiefs -1.5
Commanders at Eagles
- Commanders:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 10th
- Dropback EPA: 9th
- Rush EPA: 7th
- Points per game: 5th (28.5)
- Yards per game: 7th (369.6)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 10th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 4th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 21st
- Points per game allowed: 18th (23)
- Yards per game allowed: 13th (326.9)
- Point Differential Ranking: 10th (+94)
- Offensive Rankings
- Eagles:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 7th
- Dropback EPA: 12th
- Rush EPA: 2nd
- Points per game: 7th (27.2)
- Yards per game: 8th (367.2)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
- Points per game allowed: 2nd (17.8)
- Yards per game allowed: 1st (278.4)
- Point Differential Ranking: 2nd (+160)
- Offensive Rankings
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels ($7,000) ranked tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6) and led a Commanders offense that ranked 11th in EDPF and ninth in PROE in the regular season. A dual-threat talent aided by 891 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, Daniels ranked fifth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (22.9) during the regular season. He has won his first two playoff starts on the road and has shown extreme poise. This is not the best week to play him, as he's on the road against arguably the best defense in the NFL. It is worth noting, though, that he threw for 258 yards and 5 touchdowns and rushed for 81 yards against this defense on December 22nd.
Austin Ekeler ($5,300) is a fantastic tournament play and could be the skeleton key. He returned from a lengthy absence due to a concussion in Week 18 and shook off the rust. Then he saw 12 opportunities, including four targets in the Wild Card Round, and 10 opportunities, including four targets that turned into 88 total yards in the Divisional Round. The Eagles' defense is very tough to traditionally run on, so look for Jayden Daniels to use his legs but also find Ekeler in the receiving game five-plus times in this one.
Terry McLaurin ($6,700) finished the regular season ranked 15th in receiving yards (1,096) and second in receiving touchdowns (13). He's continued to ball in the playoffs. He caught 7 of 10 targets for 89 yards and 1 touchdown in the Wild Card Round and caught 4 of 6 targets for 87 yards and 1 touchdown in the Divisional Round. He's the Commanders' alpha in the passing attack and did put up 5 for 60 and a touchdown on 6 targets against the Eagles on December 22nd.
Dyami Brown's ($4,400) offensive snap percentages in four healthy games without Noah Brown: 78%, 66%, 62%, and 83%. He caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and 1 touchdown in the Wild Card Round and put up 6 for 98 on 8 targets in the Divisional Round.
Zach Ertz ($4,300) is a reliable veteran target who posted two straight strong games to end the regular season. His totals over those two contests: 12 targets, 11 catches, 116 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. Ertz caught another touchdown in the Divisional Round. He's an important piece of Washington's red zone offense.
Washington D/ST (2,700) has a chance if they can minimize Saquon Barkley in any way. Jalen Hurts has only thrown for over 200 yards once over his past six healthy games. He just took seven sacks last week and enters this game at less than 100% after suffering a knee injury last week.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts ($6,500) ran for 14 touchdowns in the regular season, which ranked ninth-best in the entire league in total touchdowns. He ran for another one in the Divisional Round. He's an exciting dual-threat and one of the best fantasy quarterbacks we've seen over the past few seasons. He's playing at home against a Commanders defense that ranked 21st in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17 in the regular season. An important caveat, though, is that Hurts almost certainly won't be playing at 100% after suffering a knee injury last week.
Saquon Barkley's ($8,600) regular season ranks: led the NFL in opportunities per game (24.3) and total yards per game (142.7) and ranked sixth in total touchdowns (15). Saquon surpassed that opportunity average in the Wild Card Round, turning 27 chances into 123 total yards. He then turned it all the way to 100 in the Divisional Round, turning 30 total touches into 232 total yards and 2 touchdowns. The Eagles are 6.5-point home favorites. Barkley is a free square against a Commanders defense ranked 21st in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17 in the regular season.
A.J. Brown ($6,800) is a strong tournament play thanks to recency bias since he's only caught three passes for 24 yards in two playoff games the past two weeks. His regular season ranks: just 31st in targets per game (7.5) but fifth in receiving yards per game (83). Brown is an elite talent and could go beast mode at any moment, which is nice in tournaments at home against an average Commanders pass defense.
DeVonta Smith's ($5,800) price tag is palatable. He finished the regular season on a heater. Smith went over 100 receiving yards in two of his past four regular season games and scored four touchdowns over that stretch. He posted a respectable four receptions for 55 yards in the Wild Card Round despite Jalen Hurts only throwing for 131 yards. At home against an average Commanders pass defense, it feels likely at least one of A.J. Brown or Smith post a strong game here.
Dallas Goedert ($4,500) returned from a four-game absence in Week 18, and the Eagles made it clear they wanted to shake off Goedert's rust. He saw six targets and caught four passes for 55 yards on only 13 snaps played. It appears to have worked as Goedert then caught 4 of 6 targets for 47 yards and 1 touchdown in the Wild Card Round and all four of his targets for 56 yards in the Divisional Round. Goedert is a strong play as this tight end slate this week essentially equates to paying up for Travis Kelce or rolling with Goedert at a more affordable price.
Eagles D/ST ($3,300) is arguably the best unit in the NFL. They're 6.5-point home favorites.
Bills at Chiefs
- Bills:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 1st
- Dropback EPA: 2nd
- Rush EPA: 1st
- Points per game: 2nd (30.9)
- Yards per game: 10th (359.1)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 23rd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
- Points per game allowed: 11th (21.6)
- Yards per game allowed: 17th (341.5)
- Point Differential Ranking: 3rd (+157)
- Offensive Rankings
- Chiefs:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 8th
- Dropback EPA: 7th
- Rush EPA: 11th
- Points per game: 15th (22.6)
- Yards per game: 16th (327.6)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 12th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 13th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 11th
- Points per game allowed: 4th (19.2)
- Yards per game allowed: 9th (320.6)
- Point Differential Ranking: 11th (+59)
- Offensive Rankings
Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes II. Legacies on the line. This is the game to target.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen ($7,500) leads a Bills offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play and ranks second in Dropback EPA. He ranks second at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (24.8) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). Allen is unstoppable and can get there in multiple ways as he threw for two touchdowns in the Wild Card Round and ran for two touchdowns in the Divisional Round. He's the best quarterback play of the weekend.
James Cook's ($6,900) ranks in the regular season: just 27th in opportunities per game (15.7) and 26th in total yards per game (82.6). However, he ranked second in the NFL in touchdowns (18) and plays in a Bills offense that leads the NFL in Rush EPA. Cook is extremely explosive and a dual threat. He tied his season high in targets (6) playing against the Chiefs in the regular season. He's a solid play as the Bills' offensive rushing success as a whole outweighs the risk of Cook losing a touchdown at the goal line to Ray Davis for the second week in a row.
Despite this exciting fantasy game environment, it's tough to predict Buffalo's pass catchers as they're currently utilizing a five-man rotation. Khalil Shakir ($5,700), Amari Cooper ($4,100), Keon Coleman ($3,700), Curtis Samuel ($3,500), and Mack Hollins ($3,300) all have played on 30+% of the offensive snaps in both playoff games.
Khalil Shakir remains the preferred play. In the regular season, Shakir saw 25 more targets, grabbed 32 more passes, and racked up 265 more receiving yards than any teammate. That reliability has carried over to the postseason as he's been the only pass catcher relied upon in back-to-back weeks. Shakir has caught 12 of 13 targets for 128 yards over that span.
Playing two-game slates requires going out on a limb in tournaments as there are simply not enough available players to thoroughly differentiate lineups. Getting weird with a pass catcher tied to Josh Allen in this game where Patrick Mahomes II should force him to keep his foot on the gas pedal seems like a good tournament process. Keon Coleman was drafted with the first pick of the second round to be an alpha go-up-and-get-it player. Allen was let down repeatedly by his outside receivers against the Chiefs in the playoffs last year. Look for him to give Coleman his chances on the outside in hopes of adding a needed element to the offense in order to help put them over the top.
Dalton Kincaid ($3,600) has had an extremely disappointing season but Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught 6 of 8 passes for 116 yards and 1 touchdown in the AFC Championship Game two years ago after catching just 42 passes for 687 yards and 2 touchdowns in 17 games over that entire regular season. Kincaid caught 44 passes for 448 yards and 2 touchdowns this season. Never say never, especially on a two-game slate.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes II ($6,000) ranks in the regular season: 11th in passing yards per game (245.5) and 10th in pass touchdowns per game (1.6). He leads a Chiefs offense that ranks third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and second in Pas Rate Over Expected (PROE). Considering the stakes, it is surprising to see Mahomes as the most affordable quarterback on the slate. He's at home against a Bills defense that ranked 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17 in the regular season. Mahomes is the second-best quarterback play behind only Josh Allen.
It's extremely tough to predict how the backfield rotation will play out this week in a tough matchup between Isiah Pacheco ($5,200), Kareem Hunt ($5,400), and Samaje Perine ($4,200). Even without many reliable running back options on this slate, these three are still fades.
Xavier Worthy's ($5,500) last three games in the regular season: 11 targets and 3 carries for 76 total yards and 1 touchdown, 11 targets and 3 carries for 75 total yards and 1 touchdown, and 9 targets and 2 carries for 89 yards and 1 touchdown. Worthy has the juice and has grown within the Chiefs' offense at the end of the season, similar to what we saw with Rashee Rice last year. Do not overreact negatively to Worthy's performance last week. He still caught 5 of 6 targets for 45 yards and received one carry.
DeAndre Hopkins ($4,700) was projected to play more in the playoffs than he did in the regular season, but that's not what we saw last week. Instead, Hopkins played on just 31% of the offensive snaps, his lowest snap share of the season while playing for the Chiefs. Yet, we shouldn't overreact to a one-game sample. Justin Watson played on just 8% of the snaps last week after posting a low of 34% during all 17 games of the regular season. The Chiefs appeared to have pinpointed Houston's outside corners as a strength and their middle-of-the-field coverage as a weakness. Thus, their game plan seems to have reflected that. Do not be surprised in the slightest if Hopkins' playing time skyrockets in this one. In fact, that is expected, making him an awesome tournament play.
Marquise Brown ($4,200) returned in Week 16, played in two games and then had three weeks to rest up and get ready for the playoffs. Brown saw eight targets in Week 16 on only 27% of the offensive snaps, seven targets in Week 17 on just 40%, and then played 67% of the snaps in the Divisional Round. Brown's role is trending up.
Travis Kelce's ($6,000) rankings at the tight end position in the regular season: third in targets (131), third in receptions (97), and fifth in receiving yards (823). Travis Kelce's 2023 postseason in four games: 32 receptions on 37 targets for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kelce's season essentially begins in the playoffs now at his age, and he got off to a strong start last week, catching 7 of 8 targets for 117 yards and 1 touchdown. He's far and away the best tight end play on the slate.
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