Divisional Round Games

• Saturday Slate:
  • Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 41.5 - Spread Chiefs -8.5
  • Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions - Over/Under 55.5 - Spread Ravens Lions -9.5
• Sunday Slate:
  • Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 44.5 - Spread Eagles -6.5
  • Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 51.5 - Spread Ravens -1.5

Texans at Chiefs

• Texans:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 17th
    • Dropback EPA: 18th
    • Rush EPA: 23rd
    • Points per game: 19th (21.9)
    • Yards per game: 22nd (319.7)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
    • Points per game allowed: 14th (21.9)
    • Yards per game allowed: 6th (315)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 16th (0)

• Chiefs:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 8th
    • Dropback EPA: 7th
    • Rush EPA: 11th
    • Points per game: 15th (22.6)
    • Yards per game: 16th (327.6)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 12th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 13th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 11th
    • Points per game allowed: 4th (19.2)
    • Yards per game allowed: 9th (320.6)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 11th (+59)

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud ($5,000) is affordable, but don't fall for it. He has a poor offensive line and limited weapons and is playing on the road in a tough spot. He's not even in consideration.

Joe Mixon ($6,500) ranked fourth in opportunities per game (22.4) and ninth in total yards per game (99.8) in the regular season. He turned 26 touches into 119 total yards and 1 touchdown last week in the Wild Card Round. Mixon is a volume play, but don't expect similar success to last week. The Texans are 8.5-point road underdogs and the Chiefs have a solid run defense.

Nico Collins ($7,600) is a superstar and should be pummeled with targets with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell no longer by his side. In the regular season, Collins ranked just 17th in targets per game (8.5) but still managed to rank fourth in receiving yards per game (88). He's a big play waiting to happen at any moment, and that's what we saw in the Wild Card Round. Collins caught 7 of his 8 targets for 122 yards and 1 touchdown. Collins is the clear best play on the Texans, as Houston projects to be playing from behind and throwing a lot.

Dalton Schultz's ($3,500) role has been uninspiring even without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell in the lineup, but that has resulted in an affordable salary. The Texans project to have to throw a lot, and the Chiefs defense allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game (12.5) to the tight end position this season. Schultz is in consideration in tournaments.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes II ($6,000) ranks in the regular season: 11th in passing yards per game (245.5) and 10th in pass touchdowns per game (1.6). He leads a Chiefs offense that ranks third in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and second in Pas Rate Over Expected (PROE). The matchup is tough but this is the best player in football, he'll be low-owned, and he's priced as just the sixth most expensive quarterback this week. If making one lineup, don't play Mahomes. But if making multiple tournament lineups, have at least a bit of exposure.

It's extremely tough to predict how the backfield rotation will play out this week in a tough matchup between Isiah Pacheco ($5,500), Kareem Hunt ($5,000), and Samaje Perine ($4,300). There are a lot of solid running back plays on this slate. Don't wade into these murky waters. Fade.

Xavier Worthy's ($5,200) last three games in the regular season: 11 targets and 3 carries for 76 total yards and 1 touchdown, 11 targets and 3 carries for 75 total yards and 1 touchdown, and 9 targets and 2 carries for 89 yards and 1 touchdown. Worthy has the juice and has grown within the Chiefs' offense at the end of the season, similar to what we saw with Rashee Rice last year. Worthy is underpriced and a solid play.

DeAndre Hopkins ($4,700) was limited in the regular season for draft capital reasons. The Chiefs sent Tennessee a conditional fifth-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft that would've become a fourth-rounder if he played more than 60% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps. Kansas City has locked in the more beneficial draft capital and now their season officially begins. Hopkins projects to play more in the playoffs, has an affordable $4,200 price tag, and will be low-owned. He's an exciting large-field tournament play.

Marquise Brown ($4,200) returned in Week 16, played in two games and has now had about three weeks to rest up and get ready for the playoffs. Brown saw eight targets in Week 16 on only 27% of the offensive snaps and seven in Week 17 on just 40%. Brown is an exciting play, but he is projected to be heavily owned, making him a better play in smaller field tournaments.

Travis Kelce's ($5,000) ranks at the tight end position in the regular season: third in targets (131), third in receptions (97), and fifth in receiving yards (823). Travis Kelce's 2023 postseason in four games: 32 receptions on 37 targets for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kelce's season essentially begins now. He's the best tight end play on the slate.

The Chiefs D/ST ($3,600) is in a great spot. C.J. Stroud was sacked the second-most times in the regular season (52). The Chiefs are 8.5-point home favorites.

Commanders at Lions

• Commanders:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 10th
    • Dropback EPA: 9th
    • Rush EPA: 7th
    • Points per game: 5th (28.5)
    • Yards per game: 7th (369.6)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 10th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 4th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 21st
    • Points per game allowed: 18th (23)
    • Yards per game allowed: 13th (326.9)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 10th (+94) 

• Lions:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 3rd
    • Dropback EPA: 4th
    • Rush EPA: 4th
    • Points per game: 1st (33.2)
    • Yards per game: 2nd (409.5)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 17th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 18th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 16th
    • Points per game allowed: 7th (20.1)
    • Yards per game allowed: 20th (342.4)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 1st (+222)

This game has the highest Over/Under of the week, an insane 55.5 points. This is a target game.

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels ($7,000) ranked tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6) and led a Commanders offense that ranked 11th in EDPF and ninth in PROE in the regular season. A dual-threat talent aided by 891 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, Daniels ranked fifth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (22.9) during the regular season. He just won his first-ever playoff start on the road and showed extreme poise while doing so. Daniels has a decent matchup against a Lions defense that ranks middle of the pack in both EPA/Play Allowed and Dropback EPA Allowed and he projects to be significantly pushed on the road with arguably the league's best offense on the other side. Dan Quinn keeps his foot on the gas on fourth down, and that shouldn't change in this one. Daniels has a very high upside.

Austin Ekeler ($5,100) is a fantastic tournament play and could be the skeleton key. He returned from a lengthy absence due to a concussion in Week 18 and shook off the rust. Then he saw 12 opportunities, including four targets in the Wild Card Round. He also easily could've had another reception, but a completed screen pass to him was recorded as a rush instead. This game projects to be incredible for fantasy, and the Commanders project to be playing from behind. This setup couldn't be any better for Ekeler, especially with the Commanders relying on questionable wide receiver talents behind Terry McLaurin.

Terry McLaurin ($6,300) finished the regular season ranked 15th in receiving yards (1,096) and second in receiving touchdowns (13). He kept balling in the Wild Card Round, catching 7 of 10 targets for 89 yards and 1 touchdown. He's the Commanders' alpha in the passing attack and is one of the best wide receiver plays of the week in a bananas fantasy game.

Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,300) finished the regular season hot. His totals over his last three regular-season games: 22 targets, 15 receptions, 206 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. He's priced at just $4,300 and will be extremely low-owned after a quiet Wild Card Round, with most rostering secondary Commanders' pieces chasing Dyami Brown.

Dyami Brown's ($3,900) offensive snap percentages in three healthy games without Noah Brown: 78%, 66%, and 62%. He caught all five of his targets for 89 yards and 1 touchdown last week.

Zach Ertz ($4,000) is a reliable veteran target who posted two straight strong games to end the regular season. His totals over those two contests: 12 targets, 11 catches, 116 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. Ertz was quiet in the Wild Card Round but projects to be needed more in this fantasy bonanza game.

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff ($6,300) ranks second in passing yards per game (274.9) and fourth in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and leads a Lions offense that ranks third in EPA/Play. This game has an incredible 55.5-point Over/Under, and the Lions have an insanely high 32.5-point Implied Team Total. Ben Johnson is an incredible offensive mind, but put some respect on Goff's name. He's been incredible this season.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700) ranks just 17th in opportunities per game (17.8) but ranks third in total yards per game (109.9) and first in total touchdowns (20). David Montgomery's return should not shy you away from Gibbs at all. The Lions are 9.5-point home favorites in an incredible fantasy game, and Gibbs gets a great matchup against a Commanders defense that ranked 21st in Rush EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17.

David Montgomery's ($5,700) health won't be fully known until we see him on the field this weekend, but he did practice in full on Wednesday. He'll be low-owned, he's $2,000 cheaper than Jahmyr Gibbs, and he scored 12 touchdowns in 14 games this season. He's a solid large-field tournament play.

It's go-time, and one can easily argue Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200) is the heart and soul of the Lions' offense. He turned in another incredible season, ranking tenth in targets (141), second in receptions (115), fifth in receiving yards (1,263), and third in receiving touchdowns (12). It's very hard to imagine St. Brown not getting there at home in this incredible fantasy game.

Jameson Williams' ($6,100) targets over his past seven games: 7, 7, 8, 5, 7, 8, and 9. Williams is an extreme talent and has become a consistent part of this high-octane Lions' offense this year. He finished the regular season 24th in receiving yards (1,001). It wouldn't be surprising at all to see Williams pop multiple big plays in this one.

This is the kind of bonkers fantasy game that upgrades the ceilings of secondary and tertiary offensive pieces, putting Tim Patrick ($3,700) in play in large-field tournaments. Patrick has played on over 50% of the offensive snaps in six straight games.

Sam LaPorta ($4,200) ranked third in DraftKings points per game (13.8) at the tight end position as a rookie and came on strong to end this season. LaPorta's targets in his past five games: 7, 10, 7, 8, and 7. He played on 100% of the offensive snaps in a must-win game to land the number one seed in Week 18.

Rams at Eagles

• Rams:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 14th
    • Dropback EPA: 14th
    • Rush EPA: 12th
    • Points per game: 20th (21.6)
    • Yards per game: 15th (331.4)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 9th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 11th
    • Points per game allowed: 17th (22.7)
    • Yards per game allowed: 26th (353.1)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 17th (-19)
• Eagles:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 7th
    • Dropback EPA: 12th
    • Rush EPA: 2nd
    • Points per game: 7th (27.2)
    • Yards per game: 8th (367.2)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
    • Points per game allowed: 2nd (17.8)
    • Yards per game allowed: 1st (278.4)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 2nd (+160)

Los Angeles Rams

There are too many great quarterbacks on this slate to consider Matthew Stafford ($5,200) on the road against arguably the best defense in football. Fade.

Kyren Williams ($6,900) regular season ranks: fifth in opportunities per game (22.3), 12th in total yards per game (92.6), and fourth in total touchdowns (16). There is no Blake Corum to worry about as he's out with a broken arm. Williams played on 87% of the offensive snaps and saw 19 opportunities despite the game being a blowout. Williams offers one of the best volume projections of the week but is in a tough spot against an Eagles defense that led the NFL in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17.

The Rams offense essentially runs through two players: Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua ($7,400). Nacua's averages in the regular season: sixth in targets per game (9.6), third in receptions per game (7.2), and third in receiving yards per game (90). Williams projects to be somewhat bottled up against arguably the league's best run defense so expect Sean McVay to lean on Nacua in this one with targets all over the field, including intermediate targets operating as an extension of the running game. Nacua is a great tournament play, especially after last week's quiet game.

Tyler Higbee ($3,400) made his season debut in Week 16, caught 5 of 7 targets for 46 yards and 1 touchdown in Week 18, and then looked fantastic in the Wild Card Round, catching all five of his targets for 58 yards on only 12 offensive snaps before leaving the game due to injury. Cooper Kupp has faded from relevancy, so the Rams need another weapon to step up in the passing game. Higbee is looking like that guy right now. Sean McVay reported he expects Higbee to be ready to go this weekend despite the injury last week.

Philadelphia Eagles

Recency bias will keep Jalen Hurts' ($6,800) ownership in check since last week was his first full game played since Week 15 due to a concussion, and he didn't look good throwing for just 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. The best part? He didn't score a rushing touchdown, causing the masses to forget about the success of the tush push. The tush push is alive and well. Hurts ran for 14 touchdowns this season, which ranks ninth-best in the entire league in total touchdowns. He's an exciting dual-threat and one of the best fantasy quarterbacks we've seen over the past few seasons. Rostering that as a home favorite is a good tournament process.

Saquon Barkley's ($8,200) regular season ranks: led the NFL in opportunities per game (24.3) and total yards per game (142.7) and ranked sixth in total touchdowns (15). Saquon surpassed that opportunity average in the Wild Card Round, turning 27 chances into 123 total yards. The Eagles are 6.5-point home favorites.

A.J. Brown's ($7,000) regular season ranks: just 31st in targets per game (7.5) but fifth in receiving yards per game (83). Brown is an elite talent and could go beast mode at any moment, which is nice in tournaments since he'll be low-owned due to his quiet game last week.

DeVonta Smith ($5,600) is priced surprisingly low after finishing the regular season on a heater. Smith went over 100 receiving yards in two of his past four regular season games and scored four touchdowns over that stretch. He even posted a respectable four receptions for 55 yards last week despite Jalen Hurts only throwing for 131 yards.

Dallas Goedert ($3,900) returned from a four-game absence in Week 18, and the Eagles made it clear they wanted to shake off Goedert's rust. He saw six targets and caught four passes for 55 yards on only 13 snaps played. It appears to have worked as Goedert then caught 4 of 6 targets for 47 yards and 1 touchdown in the Wild Card Round.

Eagles D/ST ($3,400) is arguably the best unit in the NFL. They're 6.5-point home favorites.

Ravens at Bills

• Ravens:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 2nd
    • Dropback EPA: 1st
    • Rush EPA: 3rd
    • Points per game: 3rd (30.5)
    • Yards per game: 1st (424.9)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 6th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 9th
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 6th
    • Points per game allowed: 9th (21.2)
    • Yards per game allowed: 10th (324.2)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 3rd (+157)
• Bills:
  • Offensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play: 1st
    • Dropback EPA: 2nd
    • Rush EPA: 1st
    • Points per game: 2nd (30.9)
    • Yards per game: 10th (359.1)
  • Defensive Rankings
    • EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
    • Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 23rd
    • Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
    • Points per game allowed: 11th (21.6)
    • Yards per game allowed: 17th (341.5)
  • Point Differential Ranking: 3rd (+157)

Do not let the higher Over/Under in Commanders at Lions fool you. This is the fantasy game of the week.

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson ($7,800) leads a Ravens offense that ranks second in EPA/Play and leads the NFL in Dropback EPA. He ranks tenth in passing yards per game (247.2) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.4). He's a dual-threat who leads all quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game (26.6). No defense can stop Jackson right now. He's the best quarterback play of the weekend against a Bills defense that ranked just 23rd in Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17.

Derrick Henry's ($8,000) regular season ranks: eighth in opportunities per game (20.3), second in total yards per game (122.1), and second in total touchdowns (18). He just ran for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on the Steelers in the Wild Card Round and put up 209 total yards and 2 touchdowns on the Bills in Week 4.

Justice Hill ($4,800) returned from a two-week absence due to a concussion and was immediately slotted right back into his pass-catching and change-of-pace role behind Derrick Henry. Hill saw four targets last week and caught a touchdown. The amazing fantasy environment this week boosts the projection of secondary and tertiary offensive weapons, making Hill an intriguing tournament play.

The Zay Flowers injury is significant. Flowers is the alpha in Baltmore's passing attack. In the regular season, he saw 44 more targets, grabbed 29 more passes, and racked up 303 more receiving yards than any teammate. He's out again this week, which boosts the upside of Mark Andrews ($4,500), Rashod Bateman ($4,900), and Isaiah Likely ($3,500).

Mark Andrews is the clear tight-end one this weekend. Andrews finished the regular season with 11 touchdown receptions in his past 12 games. He was quiet last week but wasn't needed. Don't overreact. Without Flowers, Andrews has monster upside in this amazing fantasy environment.

Rashod Bateman's $4,900 salary is low and shows DraftKings did not factor Flowers' absence into his pricing again, just like last week. Bateman is talented and tied his season-high with eight targets in Week 18 in the game Flowers left early due to injury. Bateman wasn't hugely needed last week, but this matchup against the Bills will be a wildly different game environment, making Bateman a solid play.

Isaiah Likely is $1,000 cheaper than Mark Andrews, but it was Likely who saw the biggest usage boost last week with Zay Flowers out. Likely played on a season-high 80% of the offensive snaps and posted his third-highest receiving yards total (53) of the season. Likely's $3,500 price tag is a cheat code with this kind of expected usage.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen ($7,700) leads a Bills offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play and ranks second in Dropback EPA. He ranks second at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (24.8) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). Allen is unstoppable. He's the second-best quarterback play of the weekend, behind only Lamar Jackson. Despite playing at home, he ranks behind Jackson because the Ravens' defense has shown incredible growth over the second half of the season.

James Cook ($6,700) is priced at a palatable level. Cook ranks in the regular season: just 27th in opportunities per game (15.7) and 26th in total yards per game (82.6). However, he ranked second in the NFL in touchdowns (18) and plays in a Bills offense that leads the NFL in Rush EPA. Cook is extremely explosive and just ran the ball 23 times for 120 yards and 1 touchdown last week. He's also a dual threat. Don't let zero targets over his past three games fool you. There is upside in the receiving game as the Bills love to utilize him in that capacity in the red zone and near the goal line.

Despite this incredible fantasy game environment, it's tough to predict Buffalo's pass catchers as they're currently utilizing a five-man rotation. Khalil Shakir ($5,000), Amari Cooper ($4,400), Keon Coleman ($4,100), Curtis Samuel ($3,400), and Mack Hollins ($3,500) all played on 35+% of the offensive snaps last week. Shakir remains the preferred play. In the regular season, Shakir saw 25 more targets, grabbed 32 more passes, and racked up 265 more receiving yards than any teammate.

Dalton Kincaid ($3,700) has had enough chances. I'm finally throwing in the towel. He's just not the talent I thought he was.

Favorite Tournament Team Stacks

• Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely
• Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir

Flag Plant Plays

• Austin Ekeler
• Puka Nacua
• Mark Andrews