Favorite Fantasy Game Environment

• Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings - Over/Under 48.5

Favorite Additional Fantasy Spots

• Bills at home vs Jets - Implied Team Total 28.5
• Buccaneers at home vs Panthers - Implied Team Total 28.5
• Colts on road vs Giants - Implied Team Total 24.5
• Dolphins on road vs Browns - Implied Team Total 23.5

Cash Games

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa ranks fifth in passing yards per game (260.6) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.7). The Dolphins are 6.5-point favorites, and Tagovailoa has a favorable matchup against a Browns defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Bryce Young has run for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns and thrown for 377 yards and 3 touchdowns over the past two weeks. Young is reviving his young career and showing dual-threat capabilities. Young is in a good spot against the Buccaneers' pass funnel defense that ranks just 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Aidan O'Connell, in his last two starts he also finished: 340 passing yards and 2 touchdowns and 257 passing yards. O'Connell is a capable pocket passer and gets a matchup against a Saints defense that should allow him to deliver the ball at ease. O'Connell gets a Saints defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in opportunities per game (23.7) and total yards per game (140.9). He ranks fourth in total touchdowns (15). The Eagles are home favorites, and Barkley gets to attack a Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Bucky Irving's averages over his past two games: 18 opportunities per and 102.5 total yards per. Earlier this month, Irving annihilated the Panthers, totaling 185 yards and 1 touchdown on 28 touches. He's now at home and gets that same awful defense that ranks dead last in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed.

De'Von Achane ranks 17th in opportunities per game (17.8), 16th in total yards per game (89.3), and 13th in total touchdowns (11). The Dolphins are 6.5-point favorites and Achane gets a bad Browns defense that ranks just 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Jonathan Taylor ranks fifth in opportunities per game (21.8) and sixth in total yards per game (104.3). He just turned 29 carries into 218 yards and 3 touchdowns last week and now gets to attack a Giants defense that ranks just 26th in EPA/Play Allowed. The Colts are 8.5-point favorites.

Jerome Ford is priced affordably at $5,900. Without Nick Chubb last week, he turned 16 opportunities into 131 total yards and a touchdown. Ford is at home against an average Dolphins defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 17th in Rush EPA Allowed.

Tyjae Spears is healthy and putting his talent on full display to end the season. Over the past two weeks, Spears has turned 25 total opportunities into 158 total yards and 4 total touchdowns. Spears is priced affordably at $5,400 and has a favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Rush EPA Allowed. His running mate, Tony Pollard, is questionable.

Wide Receivers

Brian Thomas Jr.'s targets over his past four weeks: 10, 12, 14, and 13. His averages over that span were 7.8 receptions, 99.8 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown per. Thomas is a pure alpha with all the injuries suffered around him in Jacksonville's offense, yet DraftKings continues to underprice him. Thomas is at home against a Titans defense that ranks 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 22nd in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Adam Thielen's averages in his past four games: 8.5 targets, 6.8 receptions, 73.8 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns. Thielen is priced at just $5,700 against the Buccaneers' pass funnel defense that ranks just 22nd in EPA/Play Allowed and 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jakobi Meyers' averages over a four-game span prior to last week: 11.3 targets, 7 receptions, 86 receiving yards. Meyers is a solid player and the clear-cut wide receiver one on the Raiders. He gets a Saints defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed.

Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard are both out. Jalen McMillan's targets over his past three games: 7, 6, and 7. He has four touchdown receptions over this span. McMillan is priced at just $4,600 and is at home against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

A.J. Brown's totals over his past two games: 26 targets, 16 receptions, 207 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. Brown is at home and gets a Cowboys defense that ranks 18th in EPA/Play Allowed.

Davante Adams is questionable, so his status must be monitored. But we'll know early as the Jets play in the early window. This looks like the last time Aaron Rodgers and Adams will play together and they're acting like it. Adams' numbers in his past four games: 5 for 66 and 1 touchdown on 12 targets, 9 for 109 and 1 touchdown on 11 targets, 9 for 198 and 2 touchdowns on 12 targets, and 7 for 68 and 1 touchdown on 13 targets. Adams gets a Bills defense that ranks just 26th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Tight Ends

Chig Okonkwo has finally become a large part of Tennessee's passing game. His stats over his past two games: 8 for 59 on 10 targets and 9 for 81 on 11 targets. He costs just $3,600 and gets a Jaguars defense that only ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed and dead last in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Jake Ferguson saw nine targets last week and now CeeDee Lamb is out for the year. The Cowboys project to have to pass in Philadelphia and Ferguson is now Cooper Rush's number-one target. He's priced at just $3,700.

Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard are both out. Payne Durgham is Otton's replacement. He's priced at just $2,900 and gets to play at home against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Durham played on 93% of the offensive snaps and saw seven targets last week.

Team Defenses

The Giants offense is putrid. Their 16-point Implied Team Total is tied for the lowest of the week. Drew Lock projects to get another start. He's thrown just one touchdown compared to four interceptions in three starts.

The Bills are 9.5-point home favorites and will get after the immobile Aaron Rodgers.

GPPs

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ranks second at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (24.9), 14th in passing yards per game (236.6), and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.7). Allen runs a Bills offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play and ranks ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). He's at home in a good spot against a Jets defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Baker Mayfield has had an awesome season. He ranks fourth in passing yards per game (261.3) and third in pass touchdowns per game (2.3) and leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks tenth in EPA/Play, 12th in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF), and ninth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). Mayfield is at home and gets a fantastic matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Packers at Vikings has the highest Over/Under (48.5) on the main slate and is an extremely competitive divisional matchup against two of the best teams in the NFL. There is shootout potential here. Sam Darnold is at home and ranks sixth in passing yards per game (251.7) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.1) and leads a Vikings offense that ranks sixth in EPA/Play, fifth in EDPF, and third in PROE. Jordan Love has also put up great numbers this season. Love ranks 12th in passing yards per game (241.2) and sixth in pass touchdowns per game (1.8) and runs a Packers offense that ranks third in EPA/Play. Both quarterbacks offer elite upside, especially if this game pushes them.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs has a tough matchup against a Vikings defense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed and ranks second in Rush EPA Allowed. However, the Vikings defense also has a difficult matchup against Jacobs, who plays on Green Bay's third-ranked offense in EPA/Play. Jacobs ranks seventh in opportunities per game (21.3), seventh in total yards per game (103.7), and seventh in total touchdowns (14). Look for Jacobs to be low-owned due to the matchup. Take advantage.

James Cook is one of the most talented and dynamic running backs in the NFL, and he's excelled in a Bills offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play. Cook has rushed for 100 or more yards in three of his past four games and leads the NFL in total touchdowns (16). The Bills are 9.5-point favorites, and Cook gets a Jets defense that ranks 23rd in both EPA/Play Allowed and Rush EPA Allowed.

Packers at Vikings has the highest Over/Under (48.5) on the main slate and is an extremely competitive divisional matchup against two of the best teams in the NFL. There is shootout potential here. Aaron Jones is playing at home, the Vikings are 1.5-point favorites, and Jones ranks 11th in rushing yards per game (18.9) and 12th in total yards per game (92.9).

Breece Hall returned to a workhorse role last week, playing on 77% of the offensive snaps and turning 20 opportunities into 90 total yards. A dual-threat talent like Hall, priced at just $6,300, is highly intriguing. The Bills have a strong defense, but Hall has outs in the passing game. He just saw six targets and caught five passes last week.

Wide Receivers

Packers at Vikings has the highest Over/Under (48.5) on the main slate and is an extremely competitive divisional matchup against two of the best teams in the NFL. There is shootout potential here. That's Justin Jefferson's music. He ranks 11th in targets per game (8.9) and second in receiving yards per game (92.5). Meanwhile, his teammate Jordan Addison has four touchdowns over his past three games and has seen target totals of 12, 9, and 8 over that span. Addison is a good player and priced $2,000 cheaper than Jefferson.

Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard are both out. Mike Evans is at home and gets a fantastic matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in EPA/Play Allowed and 29th in Dropback EPA Allowed. His quarterback, Baker Mayfield, has stated he's actively trying to get Evans to the 1,000-yard receiving yard mark once again.

Tyreek Hill is questionable but expected to play as he's been active with this same wrist injury for every game this season. Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle is also questionable but with a knee injury that likely keeps him less than 100% even if active. Hill could break a long one in a favorable matchup against a Browns defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Packers at Vikings has the highest Over/Under (48.5) on the main slate and is an extremely competitive divisional matchup against two of the best teams in the NFL. There is shootout potential here. This is the favorable fantasy game environment that could help to unlock Jayden Reed, especially with fellow receiver Christian Watson questionable. Minnesota has one of the best defenses in the NFL as they lead the league in EPA/Play Allowed and rank second in Rush EPA Allowed. If their unit is able to minimize Josh Jacobs a bit it could lead to more passing from Green Bay and more dual-threat usage for Reed. Plus, his current downplay means you can roster Reed at low ownership.

Josh Downs is priced at just $4,800 in an awesome matchup against a bad Giants defense that ranks just 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Dropback EPA Allowed. Anthony Richardson is questionable. If he's out and Joe Flacco gets the start then Downs is a tournament lock. We'll know early as the Colts play in the early window. But even if Richardson is active Downs is still a strong play at his affordable salary.

Tight Ends

Brock Bowers is that guy. He leads all tight ends in targets (132), receptions (101), and receiving yards (1,067). He offers elite upside with Aidan O'Connell throwing to him against a Saints defense that ranks 25th in EPA/Play Allowed.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both questionable. Jonnu Smith already ranks tied for the team lead in receptions (76) and receiving touchdowns (6). His ranks at the tight end position: fourth in targets (93), fourth in receptions (76), fifth in receiving yards (802), and fourth in touchdown receptions (6). Smith projects well once again in a good spot against a Browns defense that only ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed and 25th in Dropback EPA Allowed.

Packers at Vikings has the highest Over/Under (48.5) on the main slate and is an extremely competitive divisional matchup against two of the best teams in the NFL. There is shootout potential here. T.J. Hockenson has now been back from injury for half a season (eight games) and just played on his highest offensive snap share (70%) of the year last week. Hockenson is at home and could pop up for a big game at low ownership, thanks partly to this game environment. And in the same game, Tucker Kraft is a weapon in Green Bay. Luke Musgrave's return last week didn't affect Kraft at all as Musgrave only played on eight offensive snaps. Minnesota has one of the best defenses in the NFL as they lead the league in EPA/Play Allowed and rank second in Rush EPA Allowed. If their unit can minimize Josh Jacobs a bit it could lead to more passing from Green Bay, which could equate to a solid game for Kraft at low ownership.

Team Defenses

The Titans are priced at just $2,800 and get to face off against Mas Jones, who is working with limited offensive weapons due to injuries. Jones has thrown four interceptions and been sacked four times over his past three games.

The Raiders do not have a good defense, but streaming defenses is about who the unit is facing, not the defense itself. Priced at just $2,600, Las Vegas provides salary savings, and they have a good matchup against a Saints offense decimated by injuries. Spencer Rattler threw for just 153 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, and was sacked 3 times last week.

Key Injuries

• CeeDee Lamb OUT
  • Upgrade Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert, Jake Ferguson, and KaVontae Turpin
• Jalen Hurts OUT
  • Upgrade Cowboys D/ST
• Alvin Kamara OUT
  • Upgrade Kendre Miller
• David Njoku and Cedric Tillman both OUT
  • Upgrade Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore
• Cade Otton and Sterling Shepard both OUT
  • Upgrade Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and Payne Durham
• Nick Chubb OUT
  • Upgrade Jerome Ford
• Chuba Hubbard, Jonathan Brooks, and Miles Sanders all OUT
  • Upgrade Raheem Blackshear
• Dallas Goedert OUT
  • Upgrade A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
• Evan Engram OUT
  • Upgrade Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Brenton Strange
• Theo Johnson OUT
  • Upgrade Daniel Bellinger
• Derek Carr OUT
  • Upgrade Raiders D/ST
• Questionable Players
  • Anthony Richardson
  • Davante Adams
  • Tyreek Hill
  • Malik Nabers
  • Tony Pollard
  • Jaylen Waddle
  • Chris Olave
  • Christian Watson
  • Jalen Tolbert
  • Curtis Samuel
  • Xavier Legette
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling
  • Tyler Boyd

Favorite Tournament Stacks

• Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and Bucky Irving
• Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, and either Jordan Addison or T.J. Hockenson
• Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, and Josh Jacobs

Flag Plant Cash Plays

• Bucky Irving
• Brian Thomas Jr.

Flag Plant Tournament Plays

• Josh Jacobs
• Josh Downs (If Joe Flacco is starting)