Wild Card Weekend Games
- Saturday Slate:
- Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans - Over/Under 42.5 - Spread Chargers -2.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens - Over/Under 43.5 - Spread Ravens -9.5
- Sunday Slate:
- Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Bills -8.5
- Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles - Over/Under 45.5 - Spread Eagles -4.5
- Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 50.5 - Spread Buccaneers -3
- Monday Slate:
- Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams - Over/Under 47.5 - Spread Vikings -1.5
Chargers at Texans
- Chargers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 13th
- Dropback EPA: 11th
- Rush EPA: 16th
- Points per game: 11th (23.6)
- Yards per game: 20th (324.2)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 15th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 8th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 20th
- Points per game allowed: 1st (17.7)
- Yards per game allowed: 11th (324.4)
- Point Differential Ranking: 8th (+101)
- Offensive Rankings
- Texans:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 17th
- Dropback EPA: 18th
- Rush EPA: 23rd
- Points per game: 19th (21.9)
- Yards per game: 22nd (319.7)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
- Points per game allowed: 14th (21.9)
- Yards per game allowed: 6th (315)
- Point Differential Ranking: 16th (0)
- Offensive Rankings
This game has the lowest Over/Under of the week and features two average offenses compared to the rest of the playoffs. Tread carefully when playing slates that include Sunday and/or Monday games.
Chargers
Justin Herbert ($6,000) finished the season strong throwing for 911 yards and 7 touchdowns over his past three games. The Chargers offense ranks eighth in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF) and 14th in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). The matchup is tough but Herbert's excellence puts his teammates in play. And his affordable price tag puts him in play as well.
Ladd McConkey ($6,800) dominated on the Chargers seeing 21 more targets, making 27 more grabs, and racking up 438 more receiving yards than any teammate. He finished the year ranked tenth in the NFL in receiving yards (1,149). McConkey is a special talent that creates separation at will. He's a solid one-off play in this game with a palatable price tag.
J.K. Dobbins ($6,200) is Questionable but expected to play and we'll know his status before the playoffs kick-off. He averages in his two games since returning from injury to end the regular season: 20.5 opportunities per game and 79 yards per game. The opportunities average would rank eighth in the NFL if over the full season. Expect the Chargers to ride Dobbins in this one, providing one of the best workload projections of the week. The Chargers are 2.5-point favorites.
Surprisingly, the Chargers' D/ST ($3,200) is just the fourth-highest D/ST on this slate. They're 2.5-point favorites and take on C.J. Stroud who has been sacked the second-most times this season (52).
Texans
C.J. Stroud ($5,500) and the Texans limped to the regular season's finish line, losing their last two games where starters played against playoff teams. The Ravens destroyed them 31-2 just two weeks ago the first game after Tank Dell was lost for the season. Stroud is unfortunately a fade despite his affordable price tag.
We want to lean into what we believe the large sample size of the regular season data shows us as much as we can. One of those major indicators is Joe Mixon ($7,200) is going to touch the ball as much as he can handle in this one. Mixon ranked fourth in opportunities per game (22.4) and ninth in total yards per game (99.8). The Chargers run defense ranked 20th in EPA Allowed from weeks 8-17. Mixon is playing at home.
Nico Collins ($7,800) is a superstar and should be pummeled with targets with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell no longer by his side in the offense. Collins ranked just 17th in targets per game (8.5) but still managed to rank fourth in receiving yards per game (88). He's a big play waiting to happen at any moment.
Steelers at Ravens
- Steelers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 24th
- Dropback EPA: 19th
- Rush EPA: 26th
- Points per game: 16th (22.4)
- Yards per game: 23rd (319.4)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 13th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 6th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 25th
- Points per game allowed: 8th (20.4)
- Yards per game allowed: 12th (326.7)
- Point Differential Ranking: 13th (+33)
- Offensive Rankings
- Ravens:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 2nd
- Dropback EPA: 1st
- Rush EPA: 3rd
- Points per game: 3rd (30.5)
- Yards per game: 1st (424.9)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 6th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 9th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 6th
- Points per game allowed: 9th (21.2)
- Yards per game allowed: 10th (324.2)
- Point Differential Ranking: 3rd (+157)
- Offensive Rankings
Steelers
The Steelers are uninspiring entering the postseason after four straight losses. There are just three of their offensive players worth considering in a tough matchup against one of the best and most improved defensive units in the NFL.
Jaylen Warren ($5,200) has way more juice than Najee Harris and is the preferred running back in a spot where his dual-threat usage projects to be needed with the Steelers' 9.5-point road underdogs. Warren projects as a low-owned tournament play after being outproduced by Harris last week. Prior to that game though, Warren had seen 17 opportunities in two straight contests.
George Pickens ($6,300) had a horrible Week 18 but did see six targets and remains Pittsburgh's alpha pass catcher. He'll be low-owned putting him in play in tournaments, especially with the Steelers' 9.5-point road underdogs.
Pat Freiermuth ($4,400) and Russell Wilson have shown chemistry over the past two weeks. Freiermuth has seen 19 targets and caught 15 passes for 145 yards and 1 touchdown over that span. Most won't buy into this recent connection but if it's real, you could be cashing in at low ownership.
Ravens
Lamar Jackson ($8,000) leads a Ravens offense that ranks second in EPA/Play and leads the NFL in Dropback EPA. He ranks tenth in passing yards per game (247.2) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.4). He's a dual-threat who leads all quarterbacks in DraftKings points per game (26.6). There is no defense that can stop Jackson right now. He's the best quarterback play of the weekend and is surprisingly priced more affordably than Josh Allen.
Derrick Henry ($8,200) ranks eighth in opportunities per game (20.3), second in total yards per game (122.1), and second in total touchdowns (18). The Ravens are 9.5-point home favorites. The Steelers rightfully have a reputation for having a great defense. However, they rank just 25th in Rush EPA from Weeks 8-17.
The Zay Flowers injury is significant. Flowers is the alpha in Baltmore's passing attack. He has seen 44 more targets, grabbed 29 more passes, and racked up 303 more receiving yards than any teammate. He's out this week, which boosts the upside of Mark Andrews ($4,700) Rashod Bateman ($5,000), and Isaiah Likely ($3,200).
Mark Andrews is the highest-priced tight end, and rightfully so, but his salary doesn't separate from the others much. He's the clear tight-end one this weekend. Andrews has 11 touchdown receptions in his past 12 games.
Rashod Bateman's $5,000 salary is wildly low and shows DraftKings did not factor Flowers' expected absence into his pricing. Bateman is talented and tied his season-high with eight targets last week in the game Flowers left early due to injury.
Isaiah Likely is $1,500 cheaper than Mark Andrews and will come in much lower owned. Likely is an interesting pivot off of Andrews in tournaments as he also benefits from the absence of Zay Flowers since Baltimore does not have a reliable wide receiver two with him out.
The Ravens D/ST ($3,700) is worth their salary and then some. They're 9-point home favorites and the Steelers have the lowest Implied Team Total (17) of the week.
Broncos at Bills
- Broncos:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 20th
- Dropback EPA: 23rd
- Rush EPA: 13th
- Points per game: 10th (25)
- Yards per game: 19th (324.6)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 9th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 17th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
- Points per game allowed: 3rd (18.3)
- Yards per game allowed: 7th (317.1)
- Point Differential Ranking: 7th (+114)
- Offensive Rankings
- Bills:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 1st
- Dropback EPA: 2nd
- Rush EPA: 1st
- Points per game: 2nd (30.9)
- Yards per game: 10th (359.1)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 23rd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 3rd
- Points per game allowed: 11th (21.6)
- Yards per game allowed: 17th (341.5)
- Point Differential Ranking: 3rd (+157)
- Offensive Rankings
Broncos
The Broncos offense ranks just 20th in EPA/Play and 23rd in Dropback EPA and they have a running back conundrum where too many players share time to become legit fantasy options. This offense is largely an avoid but there are two receivers worth considering with Denver projected to be throwing a ton. The Broncos are 8.5-point road underdogs.
Courtland Sutton ($6,600) is Denver's alpha receiver. He's seen a whopping 65 more targets, grabbed 29 more balls, racked up 578 more receiving yards, and totaled two more receiving touchdowns than any teammate.
Marvin Mims Jr. ($5,100) has finally become a consistent part of Denver's passing offense. Mims has seen four or more targets in six straight games. He's gotten hot over the past two contests, catching all 13 of his targets for 154 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns.
Bills
Josh Allen ($8,200) leads a Bills offense that leads the NFL in EPA/Play and ranks second in Dropback EPA. He ranks second at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (24.8) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). Allen is unstoppable. He's the second-best quarterback play of the weekend behind only Lamar Jackson.
James Cook ($6,700) is priced at a palatable level with the Bills 8.5-point home favorites. Cook ranks just 27th in opportunities per game (15.7) and 26th in total yards per game (82.6). However, he ranks second in the NFL in touchdowns (18) and plays in a Bills offense that leads the NFL in Rush EPA.
Khalil Shakir ($5,300), Amari Cooper ($4,900), and Keon Coleman ($4,600) are all in play but tough projections. Cooper and Coleman are more considerations for large field tournaments. Shakir is the preferred play of the three. Shakir has seen 25 more targets, grabbed 32 more passes, and racked up 265 more receiving yards than any teammate. Shakir also projects to avoid Patrick Surtain II on the majority of his reps as 61% of his targets this season have come when he's been lined up in the slot.
Dalton Kincaid ($4,000) is a large-field tournament option where you can tell yourself a story a blowup game is within the range of outcomes and finally coming. Kincaid has seen six or more targets in eight of his past ten games.
The Bills D/ST ($3,500) has some volatility, but there is upside in playing at home against Bo Nix in his first-ever playoff game. The Broncos have the second-lowest Implied Team Total (19.5) of the week.
Packers at Eagles
- Packers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 5th
- Dropback EPA: 6th
- Rush EPA: 6th
- Points per game: 8th (27.1)
- Yards per game: 5th (370.8)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 18th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 24th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 13th
- Points per game allowed: 6th (19.9)
- Yards per game allowed: 5th (314.5)
- Point Differential Ranking: 5th (+122)
- Offensive Rankings
- Eagles:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 7th
- Dropback EPA: 12th
- Rush EPA: 2nd
- Points per game: 7th (27.2)
- Yards per game: 8th (367.2)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 1st
- Points per game allowed: 2nd (17.8)
- Yards per game allowed: 1st (278.4)
- Point Differential Ranking: 2nd (+160)
- Offensive Rankings
Packers
Jordan Love ($5,800) leads a Packers offense that ranks fifth in EPA/Play and sixth in Dropback EPA. He ranks 12th in passing yards per game (237.1) and seventh in pass touchdowns per game (1.8). The problem though is he just lost one of his targets in Christian Watson and has an extremely tough matchup on the road against arguably the league's best defense. Love is a fade.
Josh Jacobs ($7,700) is the straw that stirs the drink in the Packers offense. He ranks seventh in opportunities per game (21.1), eighth in total yards per game (101.6), and fourth in total touchdowns (16). Green Bay's offense ranks sixth in Rush EPA. The main problem: The Eagles' defense leads the NFL in Rush EPA Allowed in Weeks 8-17. However, that also will keep Jacobs' ownership in check. That's intriguing because just like Jacobs has a tough matchup against the Eagles defense, the Eagles defense also has a tough matchup against Jacobs.
Without Christian Watson, Jayden Reed ($5,500), Romeo Doubs ($5,400), and Dontayvion Wicks ($4,500) are all in play. Targets on the year: Wicks 76, Reed 75, and Doubs 72. Reed is the preferred play who offers the highest upside despite the disappointing season. It was way back in Week 1 but Reed did catch 4 passes for 138 yards and 1 touchdown against the Eagles this season. Doubs is also a respectable play who leads the Packers in targets per game (5.5).
Tucker Kraft ($3,700) is a young, talented, and athletic player. His ranks at the tight end position this season: just 20th in targets (65) and 18th in receptions (50). However, Kraft ranked seventh in receiving yards (707) and fourth in receiving touchdowns (7). He's a fun large field tournament option at tight end who could pop a big play or two.
Eagles
The tush push is alive and well. Jalen Hurts ($7,300) ran for 14 touchdowns this season, which ranks ninth best in the entire league in total touchdowns. Hurts is an exciting dual-threat and gets a favorable matchup at home against a Packers defense that ranks just 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17. From a tournament standpoint, the exciting thing is recency bias will keep his ownership in check since he hasn't played a full game since Week 15.
Saquon Barkley ($8,500) leads the NFL in opportunities per game (24.3) and total yards per game (142.7) and ranks sixth in total touchdowns (15). Look for the Eagles to ride Barkley until the wheels fall off this playoffs. The Eagles are 4.5-point home favorites.
A.J. Brown ($7,500) ranks just 31st in targets per game (7.5) but fifth in receiving yards per game (83). Brown is an elite talent and could go beast mode at any moment. He gets a favorable matchup at home against a Packers defense that ranks just 18th in EPA/Play Allowed and 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17.
DeVonta Smith ($5,700) is priced surprisingly low after finishing the regular season on a heater. Smith went over 100 receiving yards in two of his past four games and scored four touchdowns over that stretch.
Dallas Goedert ($3,900) returned from a four-game absence last week and the Eagles made it clear they wanted to shake off Goedert's rust. He saw six targets and caught four passes for 55 yards on only 13 snaps played. He's a sneaky tournament play who will be extremely low-owned.
Commanders at Buccaneers
- Commanders:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 10th
- Dropback EPA: 9th
- Rush EPA: 7th
- Points per game: 5th (28.5)
- Yards per game: 7th (369.6)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 10th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 4th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 21st
- Points per game allowed: 18th (23)
- Yards per game allowed: 13th (326.9)
- Point Differential Ranking: 10th (+94)
- Offensive Rankings
- Buccaneers:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 9th
- Dropback EPA: 10th
- Rush EPA: 4th
- Points per game: 4th (29.5)
- Yards per game: 3rd (399.6)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 20th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 27th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 5th
- Points per game allowed: 16th (22.6)
- Yards per game allowed: 18th (341.8)
- Point Differential Ranking: 6th (+117)
- Offensive Rankings
This is the game right here. This contest has by far the highest Over/Under (50.5) and features two impressive offenses against two questionable defenses.
Commanders
Jayden Daniels ($7,500) ranks tenth in pass touchdowns per game (1.6) and leads a Commanders offense that ranks 11th in EDPF and ninth in PROE. A dual-threat talent aided by 891 rushing yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, Daniels ranks fifth at the quarterback position in DraftKings points per game (22.9). Daniels has an awesome matchup here against a Buccaneers defense that ranks just 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17.
Terry McLaurin ($6,500) finished the regular season ranked 15th in receiving yards (1,096) and second in receiving touchdowns (13). He's the Commanders' alpha in the passing attack and is the best wide receiver play of the week against a Buccaneers defense that ranks just 20th in EPA/Play Allowed and 27th in Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17.
Olamide Zaccheaus ($4,400) finished the regular season hot. His totals over his last three games: 22 targets, 15 receptions, 206 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. He's priced at just $4,400 and is playing in a great fantasy game environment and matchup.
Zach Ertz ($4,300) is a reliable veteran target who posted two straight strong games to end the regular season. His totals over those two contests: 12 targets, 11 catches, 116 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. Ertz was quiet in the Wild Card Round but projects to be needed more in this fantasy bonanza game.
Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield ($6,800) ranks third in passing yards per game (267.4) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.4). He leads a Buccaneers offense that ranks 13th in EDPF and ninth in PROE. Mayfield has had an amazing season and has high upside in the best fantasy game of the week with the highest Over/Under (50.5).
Bucky Irving's ($7,000) averages over his past four games: 21 opportunities per (Would rank eighth if over the full season) and 119.8 total yards per (Would rank third if over the full season). In a must-win game last week Rachaad White saw his fewest playing time of the season (27% of snaps). Irving has iced White and is the man in Tampa Bay's backfield. He's the best running back play of the week at home against a Commanders defense that ranks just 21st in Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17.
Mike Evans ($7,900) has four touchdowns over his past four games. Here are his averages over that stretch: 10.5 targets per, 7.8 receptions per, and 103.5 receiving yards per. He's a strong play with projected volume as the alpha in Tampa Bay's passing attack.
Jalen McMillan ($5,200) has five touchdown receptions over his past four games. His averages over that stretch: 6 targets per, 5 receptions per, and 64.3 receiving yards per. McMillan is a fun pivot off of Evans.
Cade Otton ($4,100) is reportedly trending in the right direction to play this week. He practiced in full on Thursday. He'll naturally be extremely low-owned since he hasn't played since Week 15. This is just a reminder of the stretch Otton went on from Weeks 7-9: 8 for 100 on 10 targets, 9 for 81 and 2 touchdowns on 10 targets, and 8 for 77 and 1 touchdown on 11 targets.
Vikings at Rams
- Vikings:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 6th
- Dropback EPA: 3rd
- Rush EPA: 20th
- Points per game: 9th (25.4)
- Yards per game: 12th (346.9)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 2nd
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 5th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 4th
- Points per game allowed: 5th (19.5)
- Yards per game allowed: 16th (335.4)
- Point Differential Ranking: 9th (+100)
- Offensive Rankings
- Rams:
- Offensive Rankings
- EPA/Play: 14th
- Dropback EPA: 14th
- Rush EPA: 12th
- Points per game: 20th (21.6)
- Yards per game: 15th (331.4)
- Defensive Rankings
- EPA/Play Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 7th
- Dropback EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 9th
- Rush EPA Allowed from Weeks 8-17: 11th
- Points per game allowed: 17th (22.7)
- Yards per game allowed: 26th (353.1)
- Point Differential Ranking: 17th (-19)
- Offensive Rankings
Vikings
Sam Darnold ($6,500) will be low-owned after posting a huge dud in prime time last week. Let's zoom out though. Darnold ranks fifth in passing yards per game (259.6) and fifth in pass touchdowns per game (2.2) and leads a Vikings offense that ranks sixth in EDPF and second in PROE.
Aaron Jones ($6,000) is banged up. He's a fade.
Justin Jefferson ($8,100) ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards (1,533). He's playing in a neutral game environment in Arizona due to the fires in California in the second highest Over/Under (47.5) of the week. He's one of the best plays of the week.
Jordan Addison's ($6,100) four-game stretch from Weeks 14-17: five total touchdowns, 9.3 targets per game, 6.5 receptions per game, and 75 receiving yards per game. He's a tournament pivot off of Justin Jefferson.
T.J. Hockenson ($4,200) is a strong tournament play. He gets a Rams defense that allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position (13.3) this season.
Rams
Blake Corum broke his arm last week. It would be a shock if Kyren Williams ($7,400) didn't play 100% of the snaps in this one. Williams ranks fifth in opportunities per game (22.3), 12th in total yards per game (92.6), and fourth in total touchdowns (16).
Puka Nacua ($7,600) is one of the best and most talented wide receivers in the NFL. His averages this season: sixth in targets per game (9.6), third in receptions per game (7.2), and third in receiving yards per game (90). He'll lead this Rams offense just as he did in last year's playoff game where he caught 9 of 10 targets for 181 yards and 1 touchdown.
Key Injuries
- Zay Flowers OUT
- Upgrade Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Justice Hill, and Nelson Agholor
- Tank Dell OUT
- Upgrade Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and John Metchie III
- Christian Watson OUT
- Upgrade Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tucker Kraft
- Joshua Palmer OUT
- Upgrade Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston (Questionable), and Will Dissly
- Blake Corum OUT
- Upgrade Kyren Williams
- Questionable Players
Favorite Tournament Team Stacks
- Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin
- Best Run Back: Bucky Irving
- Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews
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Rachel Tootsiepop
