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Keenan Allen was injured in Week 1 and didn't return to full health and a full-time role until Week 11. From then on, he went scorched earth on the NFL, reminding everyone he's still an alpha-dominating target hog. Over that eight-game span, Allen averaged 10.4 targets (sixth most if over the full season), 7.5 receptions (second most if over the full season), 84.4 receiving yards (eighth most if over the full season), and 0.5 touchdowns. And even when including the two games Allen played minimally due to injury (and week 18), he still finished the season ranked as the WR12 in PPR fantasy points per game. Paired with one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the league and a projected upgrade at offensive coordinator with Kellen Moore taking over for Joe Lombardi, another elite season is on tap for the 31-year-old Allen. Let's dive in.
Age Is Nothing But A Number
As alluded to in the introduction, Allen was really good last year, his age-30 season. The below statistics include the two games Allen played minimally due to injury.
| Statistic | WR Rank | Data |
|---|---|---|
| Targets per game | 11th | 8.9 |
| Receptions per game | 8th | 6.6 |
| Receiving yards per game | 12th | 75.2 |
| Yards after catch per game | 13th | 28.3 |
| Yards per route run | 13th | 2.08 |
While it's certainly possible Allen's age could start catching up to him in 2023, his age 30 season showed zero signs of decline when he was on the field.
Target Domination
Allen's 2022 production was no outlier. He's dominated targets his entire career. Let's take a look at his volume and production in all seven seasons he's played in at least 14 games:
| Year | Games | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Receiving Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 15 | 105 | 71 | 1,046 | 8 |
| 2014 | 14 | 121 | 77 | 783 | 4 |
| 2017 | 16 | 159 | 102 | 1,393 | 6 |
| 2018 | 16 | 136 | 97 | 1,196 | 6 |
| 2019 | 16 | 149 | 104 | 1,199 | 6 |
| 2020 | 14 | 147 | 100 | 992 | 8 |
| 2021 | 16 | 157 | 106 | 1,138 | 6 |
When on the field, Allen has always been a vital part of his Chargers' offenses in the NFL.
Elite Quarterback Play
Allen's quarterback, Justin Herbert, isn't just one of the best and most exciting quarterbacks in the current NFL. He's one of the best quarterbacks through the first three seasons of a career in league history.
Most Passing Yards in NFL History Through Three Seasons
| Player | Games Played | Passing Yards |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 49 | 14,089 |
| Andrew Luck | 48 | 12,957 |
| Peyton Manning | 48 | 12.287 |
| Joe Burrow | 42 | 11,774 |
| Jameis Winston | 45 | 11,636 |
Most Passing Touchdowns in NFL History Through Three Seasons
| Player | Games Played | Passing Touchdowns |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino | 43 | 98 |
| Justin Herbert | 49 | 94 |
| Andrew Luck | 48 | 86 |
| Peyton Manning | 48 | 85 |
| Joe Burrow | 42 | 82 |
You read those tables correctly. Herbert has the most passing yards and the second most passing touchdowns in league history through a player's first three seasons, besting legends who played just one fewer game than him in Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. Herbert is a star who is only going to keep shining brighter as his career goes on.
Improved Offensive Efficiency
Coaching and playcalling have a significant impact in football, and one of the biggest storylines of the offseason was the Chargers' decision to move on from offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and hire former Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. This projects as an upgrade, with Moore expected to bring a more aggressive downfield passing attack to Los Angeles that should suit Herbert's skillset well. It's hard not to get excited about this, even when just comparing Moore's Cowboys to Lombardi's Chargers from last season.
2022 Offensive Efficiency
| Team | Expected Points Added per Play League Rank | Success Rate League Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 8th | 6th |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 13th | 16th |
An offense that's pushing the ball downfield more should increase Allen's big play production but also open up more space over the middle of the field and underneath to allow him to utilize his route-running strengths to his benefit.
What About Added Target Competition?
I'd be remiss if I didn't address the added target competition Allen now has entering 2023 as the Chargers selected wide receiver Quentin Johnston with the 21st overall pick in the draft. Johnston is a total freak. It's as if he was built in a lab to create the ideal X wide receiver on the outside. He offers a unique combination of height and speed. Johnston averaged 19 yards per reception on 115 collegiate catches. He's a big play waiting to happen on every down as he offers exciting yards after the catch ability, including a devastating spin move for a player his size and impressive ball tracking deep down the field. Johnston now pairs with Allen and Mike Williams to create a lethal three-wide receiver set. On one hand, this could be looked at as a negative for Allen, but that's not how drafters should look at it. Johnston is more of a threat to Mike Williams on the outside since they're more similar players, and even then, Johnston's profile projects him as more of a big play threat than a receiver who is going to soak up the volume, at least right away as a rookie.
With the Chargers offense projected to play more aggressively and push the ball downfield more, Austin Ekeler, who saw by far his career high in targets last season with 127, is likely going to be the most affected by Jonhston's arrival with some running back targets transitioning over to the wide receiver position. But for Allen, the player who has dominated targets his entire career, it will be more of the same this year. And any decrease in volume will likely be made up for in increased efficiency and big plays, with Williams and Johnston opening up more space for Allen to work over the middle of the field.
Price-Adjusted Plan of Attack
- Allen's Underdog Best Ball ADP currently stands at 36.3 overall.
- Among our staff, his average ranking is 34th overall, and personally, I have him ranked #35 overall.
Sadly, Allen's ADP has skyrocketed over the past few weeks. Previously, he routinely was available in the middle, and sometimes even the end, of the fourth round. Yet, the market adjustment didn't do anything to exclude us from drafting Allen. Instead, it just aligned with where he should've been being drafted all offseason. Continue to draft Allen with confidence, even at his new late third/early fourth round price tag.
Final Thoughts
The fantasy football market is very sharp, and this year, wide receivers are being drafted earlier than ever before. Considering the new macro drafting landscape of 2023, it's a blessing we can currently draft last season's WR12 in PPR fantasy points per game, including weeks 1 and 7, when he played on just 33% and 32% of the offensive snaps, respectively, at WR19. Allen has already proven he's an outlier when it comes to age, as very few receivers last as a starter on the team that drafted them for 11 years. So don't bet on this being the season he tails off drastically. Entering that 11th season, Allen is primed for yet another year of elite receiving production paired with one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in league history and an offense under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore that's about to take a step forward in efficiency and production. He remains an alpha target hog.
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