Welcome to Week 8 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Rams and Cardinals Backfields
- Every Week/Bye Week/Fluke Week
- Quit/Don't Quit
- Either/Or: The RB Edition (see below)
Let's roll.
Either/Or: The RB Edition
Matt Waldman: Which player would you rather have for the rest of the season?
Make your sentiments known.
Joey Wright: This is not an indictment on Ken Walker’s stellar 2023 season, but a healthy Austin Ekeler is arguably outside of Christian McCaffrey, the best running back in football. I do think Ekeler's poor performance in Week 7 was a product of both a typical first-game back lull and a difficult division matchup. The schedule ahead is a bit more optimistic. Better things are coming for Ekeler managers.
Waldman: I will add that Ekeler suffered a low-ankle sprain to the same ankle he just rehabbed from a high-ankle sprain, so while I'm with you on Ekeler's talent, I'm inclined to stick with Walker, who is producing and held off a more compelling backfield mate in Zach Charbonnet in the process.
Wright: I see you, Waldman. Still, low-ankle sprains aren't usually troublesome, so I'm buying into the idea that Ekeler's injury won't be an issue.
As for Tony Pollard or James Cook, I prefer Pollard for the rest of the season to Cook. I presumed the Cowboys would treat Pollard as they did Demarco Murray in 2014 and constantly feed him the ball. Instead, we’ve seen Dallas manage Pollard’s workload, involving Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn week to week. It is a move that could prove to be profitable for Pollard’s stat line as the Cowboys push toward a playoff spot.
If Derrick Henry remains with the Tennessee Titans, I would prefer Josh Jacobs for the rest of the season. The Raiders offense has run through three lanes this year: Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Josh Jacobs. Even with Jacobs's poor rushing performance, there isn’t much competition or sign of his workload changing. Jacobs is on pace to exceed his career highs in receptions and receiving yards, which is a nice indicator for PPR leagues. Henry is still the lead back in Tennessee, but the trade rumors, coupled with the arrival of Tyjae Spears, have me less enthusiastic about him than I do about Jacobs.
Will Grant: If this were draft day, this would be a no-brainer pick of Ekeler. But after seven weeks, Walker's stock is rising while Ekeler has been injured and still isn't posting the stats you'd want from a guy who was an easy first-round selection. Dallas and Kansas City are not Arizona and Cincinnati, so Ekeler's lack of production has some explanation. I'll choose Ekeler just because I think he has a bigger upside, but it's a lot closer than I want it to be.
I'm choosing Tony Pollard over James Cook, but only because he'll contribute more in the passing game. James Cook will probably see two or three receptions a week at most. Pollard has three or more receptions in his last five games. Neither has reached the end one enough to match fantasy owner expectations, but with Pollard having more opportunities, his upside will be higher. Both guys have a high floor, but Pollard has a higher ceiling.
There's just enough concern about Derrick Henry's future in Tennessee to make me select Josh Jacobs here. Jacobs has lower stats per touch but a higher volume. Henry has better stats overall, but will that continue if the Titans decide to focus on the future? This choice feels like the lesser of two evils, and in this case, I'll take opportunity over stats. Jacobs will maintain a high number of touches the rest of the way.
Jeff Bell: Ken Walker over Austin Ekeler for me. Ekeler has concerns. The high-ankle sprain has already sapped half his season. A changing role in a new offensive scheme could diminish his passing upside. Add in the Chargers' commitment to involving Joshua Kelley in a rotational backfield.
Walker ranks second in running back red zone attempts and seventh in conversion rate. Seattle focuses heavily on the run when it comes to scoring opportunities. He does not have the passing upside of a back like Ekeler, but there are a lot fewer questions around him.
Tony Pollard over James Cook. The top 1% outcome for Cook may be higher when factoring in offense and if opportunity shifts toward him completely. But Pollard has consistently produced more, averaging 15.3 PPR points to Cook's 12.8. Hopefully, Pollard's Week 6 outcome profiles him to swing a bit more into the passing game, and he can consistently land within the top-end RB1 range.
Can I wait a week on Derrick Henry vs. Josh Jacobs?
Waldman: Good question and wise, but you know the drill. . .
Bell: Henry has meant so much to the Titans, but the trade of Kevin Byard to Philadelphia could signal a full-blown rebuild as the trade deadline looms. Realistically, looking at the Titans' offensive situation, almost any team in the NFL would present an upgrade for the offensive environment for Henry.
But I see Jacobs in a more competitive situation absent a move and if Jimmy Garoppolo can return quickly. Jacobs' contract situation behooves him to lay it all out over the year's second half.
Matt Montgomery: Austin Ekeler has to be the choice here. He has been an elite fantasy running back for the better part of five seasons, and nothing should deter you from starting him when healthy. He has elite pass-catching ability and a knack for finding the end zone. Don’t overthink this; Ekeler is a fantasy league winner.
Waldman: If the ankle is healthy enough after re-injuring it, albeit in a different way, that may not be as troublesome.
Montgomery: Noted. I'll take that gamble. I'll also take James Cook. It is more about the underwhelming things we have seen from Tony Pollard than what Cook has produced. Pollard was likely a top 2-3 round pick in redraft, and you aren’t getting the upside we once thought we had with him. Cook, in his first year as a starter, has more rushing yards and one less rushing touchdown on what can be argued as a more elite offense. I believe Cook should be your guy over Pollard moving forward.
It is easy to get down when Derrick Henry isn’t getting the volume we are used to seeing with him. But his offense is still catered to being run first, and he is an elite goal-line option. He is no longer going to be an every-down back, but when he is in the game, he can still break off big runs and will be no stranger to pay dirt this season. Jacobs is a good player with his own upside, but this is still Derrick Henry we are talking about!
Andy Hicks: For me, it's Ken Walker III over Austin Ekeler without hesitation. Apart from the opening game of the season, he has had either a touchdown or a hundred-yard rushing day. Ekeler has only had one good game, the opening weekend. If I were to be offered Ekeler, I take him, but not at the expense of Walker.
When choosing between Tony Pollard and James Cook, this call is a bit closer, but I lean towards Pollard. The Cowboy gets more touches and receptions and has more experience. We can trust Pollard to make more red-zone plays than the undersized Cook.
Josh Jacobs is my choice over Derrick Henry, who isn’t getting the opportunity to wear defenses down. The Titans and Raiders are struggling, but Jacobs is a more reliable pass-catching back, which makes a significant difference in outcomes.
Zareh Kantzabedian: Austin Ekeler over Ken Walker III. Still, Walker has been great, but his run blocking has been poor, and he hasn't been a major contributor as a receiver. In addition, Walker has to play top-10 run defenses in 6 of the next 10 remaining games.
Ekeler had a poor showing in Weeks 6 and 7. Dallas and Kansas City are tough defenses to play against for a running back fresh off of a high-ankle sprain. However, the smart money would be to bet on Ekeler to bounce back. This week, he gets the Chicago Bears, who have been very generous to receiving backs.
And I'm playing against him in my home league, so expect him to go nuts.
Give me Tony Pollard ahead of James Cook. Pollard has averaged five targets per game, to Cook's three. While James Cook has been the better runner, Pollard has seen more targets and a higher target-per-route run rate (20 percent). Cook has been the better runner, but the bread and butter for fantasy running backs come through the passing game.
Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs? Matt, all of these questions have been cruel mind games.
Waldman: These are the types of either/or scenarios our readers are considering with trades. It is cruel but necessary.
Kantzabedian: I'm going to roll with Jacobs here. We've seen Henry be phased out of the Titans' offense in negative game scripts. Now Ryan Tannehill is injured, so the Titans plan on creating a mutant quarterback with Malik Willis and Will Levis. Sounds not fun. Jacobs has been awful as a runner, but he's still getting the target volume. Maybe Jacobs is slacking because he didn't get his big contract. Maybe the Raiders’ run blocking has been poor. But if he decides to get it going, he'll hit big.
Daniel Harms: Ken Walker III over Austin Ekeler is the choice. Ekeler hasn’t looked the same since his high ankle injury, and Walker has been getting the bulk of the rushing and passing involvement in the Seattle backfield.
Tony Pollard over James Cook. It hasn’t looked pretty so far for Pollard, but he’s getting the bulk of the Work in Dallas, and no other backs in that room look good enough to push him for work. Latavius Murray caps Cook’s upside.
Josh Jacobs over Derrick Henry. It looks like Henry is showing signs of wear from his years of use in Tennessee. He’s been the least effective version of himself we’ve seen, and Tyjae Spears is taking a chunk of the rushing work and involvement in the passing game. While the Las Vegas offense isn’t awe-inspiring, Jacobs looks like the much more effective back.
Jason Wood: Ken Walker III over Austin Ekeler. Walker is younger, healthier, and more productive. Ekeler isn't someone you should panic over, but he's clearly at a point in his career where he will protect himself from injury.
Tony Pollard is ahead of James Cook in my book. It hasn't been the monstrous start to the season we all hoped for with Pollard, but he remains the Cowboys' bell cow, and we know head coach Mike McCarthy wants to have a run-heavy game script. As long as the Cowboys' defense remains robust, Pollard should string together quite a few fantasy-winning weeks.
As for Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs, I like them both, but I lean slightly toward Jacobs, who is more versatile, which gives him a chance to put up big numbers regardless of the game script. Henry needs heavy volume and is marginalized in the passing game by the arrival of rookie Tyjae Spears. Since both the Titans and Raiders look like losing franchises, I'll give the edge to the player who can routinely grab five or six dump-off passes in a come-from-behind passing frenzy.
Waldman: If you'd like to see the rest of the topics, once again, you can find them here:
Thanks, and good luck this week!