Welcome to Week 8 of the 2023 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Rams and Cardinals Backfields (see below)
- Every Week/Bye Week/Fluke Week
- Quit/Don't Quit
- Either/Or: The RB Edition
Let's roll.
Rams and Cardinals backfields
Matt Waldman: Consider these runners who may contribute significantly this weekend.
- Royce Freeman
- Myles Gaskin
- Darrell Henderson Jr.
- Zach Evans
- Emari Demercado
- Keaontay Ingram
- Damien Williams
Answer the following:
- Pick the two you'd start in re-draft if you had to choose from this list.
- Pick the two you'd stash on a dynasty roster if you had the room/luxury.
- Any recommendations on how you'd approach these or other murky backfields in the future?
Go . . .
Jason Wood: I'm glad you asked me this today and not a week ago Matt, because I was convinced we were embarking on the Zach Evans breakout campaign. The rookie saw his first action of the season in Week 6 after Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers got hurt, leaving the Rams' roster with no alternatives but to start Evans in Week 7.
However, over the course of the week, the Rams added Darrell Henderson and promoted Royce Freeman. They dominated the snaps (57% and 43%, respectively), while Evans didn't see the field. While we can't rule out Evans' long-term future, this weekend's outcome was damning.
So the two I'd start in redraft are Henderson and Emari Demercado, based on their usage and the fact that the intended starters are both on injured reserve, guaranteeing key roles for a few weeks. Henderson had the most touches, snaps, and fantasy points for the Rams, and he's a known commodity.
Demercado is less certain to contribute but got far more work than the other Cardinals' backs. If Kyler Murray returns soon, there's at least a chance the running lanes will widen, and Demercado can have a solid few weeks before James Conner returns.
I don't love any of these players as dynasty stashes, but when in doubt, bet on youth for your deep dynasty benches. By default, that leaves me opting for Zach Evans and Emari Demercado as my holds.
In a re-draft or win-now situation, you have to separate the team situation into those with a system and a supporting cast (e.g., offensive line) that will allow third or fourth-string players to produce fantasy-relevant output versus offenses where a lesser-talented tailback is just going to flounder. I wouldn't have categorized the Rams as an "all systems go" unit in the preseason based on the roster rebuild, but at this point, with the success we've seen from Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, Kyren Williams, and Darrell Henderson, I would say you can comfortably assume Sean McVay will scheme players to marginally valuable productivity.
In Arizona's case, we haven't seen the same kind of production when starters go down. While each situation is its own, I would recommend that fantasy managers look at team rankings before making waiver pickups to determine which offenses are elite and, thus, more likely capable of sustaining despite backup talent entering the lineup.
Daniel Harms: I, like Jason, appreciate getting this question this week. Sean McVay is at it again this season with a below-average offensive line on paper, but they have been excellent in run blocking, and while Kyren Williams is on IR, Darrell Henderson is the back McVay wants out there. He returned from the scrap heap and led the Rams backfield in snaps after a week of practice.
The other back I’d start is Emari Demercado. He’s a trusted pass-protection back, even at TCU, and a good pass catcher. While James Conner is on IR, Demercado has led the backfield in snaps for three straight weeks.
While the evidence against Zach Evans is starting to pile up, adding three backs last week and then not seeing the field, there is talent there. Williams wasn’t trusted as the number one back until his second year, so there’s hope for him. Demercado is the other. He’s familiar with the system now, and when Conner gets back, he’ll likely be the RB2 in Arizona and could find himself as the lead back next season.
NFL coaches have shown that they value trust in murky backfields. Pass protection is vital to be trusted to carry more work when a starter is hurt, or there are questions about the room. It’s never a one-for-one situation, but if there is a murky backfield, find the running back the coaching staff trusts.
Waldman: Daniel, I appreciate the point about Williams not earning the trust of McVay until his second year. Darrell Henderson barely saw the field as a rookie, and he was a significant draft pick of the team. This is important to remember, but at the same time, I agree with you and Jason that it's not a good first impression for a player who has legit skills.
Either the Rams passed him over as a contributor because of reasons he fell in the NFL Draft, or the coaching staff has bought into Evans as a late pick without a significant amount of reps to know for sure. There's precedence for both to have occurred frequently among NFL coaching regimes. Still, it's probably safest to wait for the player to prove the staff wrong rather than presume that the staff hasn't made an accurate assessment.
Zareh Kantzabedian: Snip. Snap. Snip. Snap.
Darrell Henderson is an RB2 until Kyren Williams gets right. The Rams cut bait on Henderson last November in favor of Cam Akers, whom they traded to the Minnesota Vikings earlier this year. So, I doubted that Henderson would immediately get the starting nod over Royce Freeman or Zach Evans in Week 7.
But Henderson performed admirably in Week 7 while garnering a 57 percent snap share in his first game since being cut by the Rams. That is a vote of confidence. In other news, I spent the rest of my Free Agency Acquisition Budget on Zach Evans last week in one of my leagues. Huzzah!
Waldman: Ugh. I hate that for you, Zareh. I tried to caution people about Evans last week, even while profiling his potential. Tough call.
Kantzabedian: Sometimes you just have to go for it...
My other choice is Emari Demercado. He had a massive 80 percent snap share versus the Seattle Seahawks in Week 7. A running back with a sturdy build who can turn it on when he gets to the edge, Demarcado feels like a clone of former Eagles running back Bryce Brown. I prefer Demarcado to Darrell Henderson in Week 8. Demarcado is a threat to break off a long run and is likely to see more targets than Henderson.
Demarcado and Henderson are viable RB2s until James Conner and Kyren Williams return from injury. I'd project James Conner to reassert himself as the unquestioned starter and reclaim his usual volume once he returns. Williams was receiving a massive workload before being injured. I expect that to be reduced but remain the starter once he returns.
Andy Hicks: Because they are likely to have immediate numbers this week. Experience tells us this can change weekly, and we will likely have a different answer next week. Emari Demarcado may be given more of a chance. As a rookie, he has the most room to improve.
Darrell Henderson went from leading rusher to cut in short order last year. A repeat wouldn’t surprise me.
Demarcado is the only stash I'd use from the Cardinals backfield for a dynasty roster. You can use any of the rest on an immediate emergency basis depending on their current number in the pecking order. Demarcado has been given preference to veterans Damien Williams and Keontay Ingram for two of the last three weeks and has the upside. The other two Cardinal backs will likely see the street before a long-term dynasty roster.
As for the Rams, Evans would seem to be the logical choice, but five running backs have had more carries for the team this year. Even Matthew Stafford has more rushing attempts and Tutu Atwell is breathing down his neck. Evans is the only guy listed who has been with the team the whole season. If he isn’t getting opportunities ahead of guys like Freeman, Henderson, and Gaskin, then his future looks bleak.
As we saw with Jordan Mason, Tyrion Davis-Price, and Elijah Mitchell, guys are sitting on NFL rosters who will be popular on waivers if given a chance. Now these guys missed out because Christian McCaffrey refused to accept a multiple-week absence prognosis.
Knowing a team's running back depth chart in the preseason and then following it throughout the year, we can see starters who struggle, committees turn into a lead-back situation, and guys called up from the practice squad or street become immediately productive. No other position can have crazy week-to-week variance like the running backs. Ideally, continue to scout all rosters, snaps, playing time, targets, etc, but if you cannot, concentrate on running back and see opportunities arise before the rest of your league mates do.
Matt Montgomery: I would select Darrell Henderson Jr. and Keaontay Ingram. Henderson has an important knowledge of the offense he is being thrust back into. He has had fantasy success with this team and should be able to contribute immediately.
Ingram feels more like a gamble, but the way the Cardinals play offense, there will be opportunities for him to contribute. It also appears that this is his job to lose, and until we see that, he needs to be the guy we roster.
Waldman: While it may appear that Ingram lost that job last week to Demercado when he was a healthy scratch, it's possible the Cardinals aren't through figuring out who to roll with until Conner returns. Demercado was effective last weekend against the Seahawks but only earned 10 carries, and nothing he did was extraordinary.
This weekend should help us see whether Demercado was part of a week-to-week experiment or the regime's go-to solution with Conner out.
Montgomery: I would stick with my Darrell Henderson and Keaontay Ingram decisions in dynasty formats as well. The Rams do have an opportunity for Henderson to hang on since they traded Cam Akers earlier this season, and we are seeing now that Williams' usage could contribute to him not being fully healthy even when he returns.
Ingram is just 23 years old and is backing up an aging running back who will be coming back from injury on a bad team. If this team fully embraces a rebuild, we could see pieces like James Connor be moved for assets or draft picks. He is a long-term hold for me.
When evaluating backfields like this, you must be aware of usage and matchups more than situations. Sometimes, a running back isn’t going to just pick up the volume that the starter had when they can’t play. This is why you need to look into the matchups and determine if this player fits what the team may do to attack an opposing defense. Should you focus on a receiving back or a power back? You cannot be afraid to take a risk in situations like these.
Jeff Bell: Emari Demercado and Darrell Henderson Jr. are my re-draft choices. Demercado took over the Arizona backfield a week after it looked like an ugly three-way split. The Cardinals are comfortable using him as their passing back, but Week 7 showed they are comfortable using him as a feature back.
Henderson and Freeman looked split on their work share with an edge towards Henderson, who received a goal line opportunity he converted. If one of the Rams' backs is trending toward a Demercado-type takeover, it is Henderson, who played heavily in his first game with the team.
For dynasty leagues, I will defer heavily toward youth here. I still believe in Evans, even if it is starting to feel like the Rams may not. No player on the list matches his prospect pedigree as a former five-star recruit and top back in his class.
Meanwhile, Demercado may have the opportunity to stick long-term as the receiving option for the Cardinals. Jonathan Gannon comes from a Philadelphia team that employed multiple backs, and Drew Penzig’s Cleveland team did the same.
Demercado reminds me of Henderson stylistically, with speed to hit a crease and some natural receiving ability. A 215-pound back with some speed who can catch and has a significant opportunity his rookie year is a dynasty stash.
As for how to approach these backfields, wait for James Conner and Kyren Williams to return. Demercado has the best chance of maintaining a role moving forward, as he had earned reps when Conner was healthy.
The Rams will be interesting as they gave Williams a huge work share. Henderson has the best chance of showing himself to be worth sticking around, but they abruptly pulled the plug on him once already.
As Matt and I discussed previously on The Audible Live, Gaskin may be the quiet one to watch to stick long-term over Freeman and Henderson, but Williams and Evans will likely be with the team through the next couple of seasons.
Will Grant: When James Conner went down a few weeks ago, I tried to add Emari Demercado to all of my redraft leagues. I haven't had the need to start him yet, but he's had 25 or more snaps in the last four weeks and saw 53 last week against Seattle. He also had a season-high 17 touches and should be a decent flex-play in the short term.
Like most of the other folks here - Darrel Henderson has been the in-case of emergency, break-glass option running back for the Rams over the last few seasons and he assumes that role again. I'd much rather have him than Freeman or Gaskin, and I think Henderson will see more action than Zach Evans as well. That said, I don't know if I'd start Henderson against Dallas this week unless I were desperate for a running back.
I'm not sure that I would take any of the Rams for my dynasty team. Zach Evans might see action before the end of the season, but any of the other options would probably be dropped before the rookie draft.
Demercado would be worth a spot, as James Conner is in his seventh season and has missed some time every year. Damien Williams has averaged 4.2 YPC over his nine seasons in the NFL, and he may still have a productive season or two left in his career. The fact that he has only ten touches in the last two games would keep me from starting him until his numbers improve.
Kyren Williams is expected to be back in a couple of weeks, making most of the backs for the Rams short-term options. If Williams is 100%, the rest of the backs in LA can be dropped from your redraft (and probably dynasty) rosters.
James Conner is out for a few more weeks, and there are many questions on if he will remain with the Cardinals after this season. Demercado's increasing workload indicates that the Cardinals will give him a shot to have a bigger role going forward. He was an undrafted rookie this season, but if he can cement himself into a solid position with the team, he will still see action, even when Conner returns.
Joey Wright: Last week, I leaned heavily into the Zach Evans side of this Rams running game and away from Royce Freeman. My tune has changed to some degree. I am still avoiding Royce Freeman, but Darrell Henderson’s 19-touch, 66-yard, 1-touchdown performance was enough for me to buy into him as the Rams' running back to roster until Kyren Williams returns.
Henderson was sent back down to the practice squad on Monday, but the Rams can make this move three more times before they are required to make him a permanent member of the active roster. I would expect him to be reactivated later this week and be on the field Sunday in a tough matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.
For the Arizona Cardinals, I am looking toward Emari Demercado after he compiled 75 yards on 17 total touches. The competition is non-existent for Demercado with Damien Williams being the only other running back utilized last week to the tune of one carry for two yards. The Cardinals face the Baltimore Ravens who are normally terrifying against opposing running backs, but last week, they allowed 27.6 PPR fantasy points to Jahmyr Gibbs.
From a dynasty perspective, Evans is still my preferred hold for dynasty from the Rams active running back room. Myles Gaskin, Royce Freeman, and Darrell Henderson have known values at this point in their careers, and outside the current extreme scenario where the two preferred options are out with injuries, they do not hold much value. For the Cardinals, Demercado has shown enough to merit a roster spot. He’s seen the most usage of the running backs now for the Cardinals outside of James Conner. It is possible to even see him maintain some work once Conner returns.
Waldman: I am older but young enough to remember when Royce Freeman was a compelling third-round pick in a highly-regarded running back class. Freeman lacks a top gear, which has hurt his stock at every stop during his NFL career.
Still, it's worth noting that Freeman ran well last week and was the best option as a pass protector against the Steelers defense. Freeman has above-average contact balance among NFL starters, and he presses creases well. I think we're still going to see a split between Freeman and another back in L.A.
There's precedence with Sean McVay when it comes to using big power backs who lack top gears that can catch and block and pair them with a speedster or a shifty scatback. Those backs were C.J. Anderson and Malcolm Brown. Freeman fits that mold, so if you are really desperate to start a second or third back and the waiver wire is dry, Freeman may still earn a reasonable split moving forward.
If you'd like to see the rest of the topics, once again, you can find them here:
Thanks, and good luck this week!