The rise of season-long Best Ball has occurred rapidly, thanks in large part to Underdog. The company has tapped into the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) minds of us fantasy football sickos by offering tournaments with huge payouts, but instead of relying on one-game randomness, allowing us to project how the entire season is going to play out.
The Big Board recently filled, which was a $10 entry, $200,000 to first place contest. With many more tournaments coming, it's time to analyze the ADP data that was left behind in order to exploit it moving forward. This article utilizes data from Next Gen Stats and PFF to highlight three running backs to target and three running backs to fade based on their current draft cost.
Running Backs to Target
Breece Hall - ADP 25th Overall
There is a significant wide receiver craze on Underdog that pushes running backs down the board and is a factor in Hall's early third-round ADP. But there is no excuse for this. Hall was an awesome prospect entering the league last year and then proceeded to hit the ground running as a rookie in six fully healthy games before tearing his ACL in October. Hall was the RB8 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game (15.1) despite sharing time with Michael Carter and playing alongside quarterbacks Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson. Hall will play the entire 2023 season at just 22, and there have been no reports of complications surrounding his injury or recovery. Plus, the odds are high that he'll receive a significant quarterback upgrade, with it seemingly only being a matter of time before Aaron Rodgers comes to town. And Hall was a standout in 2022 in a number of PFF metrics. Out of 62 eligible running backs, Hall ranked first in elusive rating (measures the success of the runner independent of blocking), third in explosive run rate (percentage of rush attempts that went for 10+ yards) (19%), first in yards after contact per attempt (4.13), and second in yards per route run (2.00). Hall is a talented, young, dual-threat who projects for more opportunities per game in his second season in an improved offense. Target him in the second and early third rounds.
David Montgomery - ADP 80th Overall
Jamaal Williams had an incredible season in 2022, rushing for 1,066 yards and leading the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns, ranking second behind only Austin Ekeler in total touchdowns. But his production said a lot more about the offense and the role he played within it than about his individual talent. In fact, data from Next Gen Stats and PFF paint the picture David Montgomery arguably had the better year despite playing in the inferior offense.
| Statistic | Montgomery Ranking (Data) | Williams Ranking (Data) |
|---|---|---|
| Rush Yards Over Expected per Attempt | 39th (-0.15) | 33rd (0.13) |
| Rush Percent Over Expected (Success Rate - Percentage of Plays with Positive Rush Yards Over Expected) | 34th (38.2) | 41st (36.3) |
| Elusive Rating | 19th (69) | 56th (32.5) |
| Explosive Run Rate (10+ yard runs/rush attempts) | 45th (8%) | 45th (8%) |
| Yards After Contact Per Attempt | 34th (2.90) | 39th (2.78) |
| Yards Per Route Run | 20th (1.17) | 49th (0.61) |
Montgomery isn't a special talent, but he's better than Williams. He's inheriting Williams' incredibly valuable role in the Lions' offense after Detroit aggressively signed Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million contract with $11 million in guarantees. The Lions have shown us with their actions they only view D'Andre Swift as a change of pace committee back, so it's shocking to see Swift's ADP (69) higher than Montgomery's ADP (80). This is just flat-out wrong and inefficiency in the market. Montgomery projects as the lead back and more of a dual-threat than Williams was for an offense that has one of the best offensive lines in football, that retained both head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and that ranked fifth in points per game (26.6) and fourth in yards per game (380) a year ago. He'll play the entire 2023 season at just 26 years of age. Target Montgomery in the seventh round.
D'Onta Foreman - ADP 137th Overall
Foreman has performed two straight seasons when given the chance, and his 2022 season shows he has more production coming, especially since he'll play this entire year at just 27 years of age. He ranked sixth in rush yards over expected per attempt (0.82), second in rush percent over expected/success rate (49), 20th in explosive runs of 10+ yards (21), and 14th in yards after contact per attempt (3.26) on his way to 914 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 233 pounds, Foreman is a good rusher, but the same can't be said about him as a pass catcher. He only caught five passes for 26 yards and ranked 61st out of 62 running backs in yards per route run (0.23) last season. His one-dimensional rushing profile would matter more if a) Underdog was full PPR instead of half PPR and b) he landed in a different offense. Instead, he'll form a potent 1-2 punch with Khalil Herbert with a dual-threat quarterback in Justin Fields in an offense that ranked 31st in pass rate over expected (-12) and first in rushing yards per game (177.3) last year. Target Foreman in the 11th and 12th rounds.
Running Backs to Fade
Najee Harris - ADP 42nd Overall
Volume is important for running backs. Harris ranked 12th in the entire league in opportunities per game (18.8) last year, so I certainly understand why he's being drafted in the fourth round. But we also want to spend our premium picks on talented players and especially with running backs, ones that are more talented than their backup, and that just isn't 100% clear with Harris. Let's compare Harris and his backup, Jaylen Warren.
| Statistic | Harris Ranking (Data) | Warren Ranking (Data) |
|---|---|---|
| Elusive Rating | 27th (59.6) | 9th (85) |
| Explosive Run Rate (10+ yard runs/rush attempts) | 52nd (7%) | 13th (14%) |
| Yards After Contact Per Attempt | 43rd (2.74) | 22nd (3.08) |
| Yards Per Route Run | 38th (0.77) | 16th (1.24) |
Warren played little in 2022, which makes sense since he was an undrafted rookie, but just the fact he earned playing time as someone the organization invested very little in was a huge win and playing well was just the cherry on top. Drafters are underestimating the chances Warren's role in the offense grows in year two now that he's endeared himself to Mike Tomlin. And even if that doesn't happen, Harris will still have to play well to pay off his cost, which is a major question mark in an offense returning the same quarterback, head coach, and offensive coordinator that ranked just 26th in points per game (18.1) and 23rd in yards per game (322.6) a season ago. Fade Harris and instead draft Warren (ADP of 178) in the 15th round.
Jamaal Williams - ADP 109th Overall
Williams' unimpressive advanced metrics were previously highlighted in the David Montgomery section. Drafters are still boosting Williams up for his 2022 performance despite the fact he's now on a completely new (and worse) team. The Saints ranked 22nd in points per game (19.4) last season, while the Lions ranked fifth (26.6). The Saints ranked 19th in yards per game (333.8) a year ago, while the Lions ranked fourth (380). The addition of Derek Carr should help New Orleans' offense a bit, but that won't offset the drastic change in environment. Plus, Williams was the feature back last year in Detroit since the coaching staff had little faith in D'Andre Swift. Yes, Alvin Kamara is facing a suspension. Still, Williams will eventually have to share the backfield with him and projects to also share goal-line touches with both Kamara and Taysom Hill. Fade Williams completely at this price.
Ezekiel Elliott - ADP 147th Overall
If both Jerry Jones and head coach and new play-caller Mike McCarthy, who wants to run the ball more in 2023, gave up on Elliott, it's completely over. And that's what the data shows as well. Out of 62 eligible running backs, Elliott ranked 54th in elusive rating (33.6), 52nd in explosive run rate (7%), 49th in yards after contact per attempt (2.7), and 57th in yards per route run (0.39). And out of 48 eligible running backs, he ranked 43rd in rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.26) and 39th in rush percent over expected/success rate (36.4). There is a very realistic world where Elliott ends up back in Dallas because no one else wants him. But either way, avoid him entirely at this cost in the 12th and 13th rounds.
To dig deeper into Underdog ADP on your own, check out the latest here.