August is one of the best months on the dynasty calendar. We get to see all the work we put in building up our rosters during the long offseason start to bear fruit. It is also a time of opportunity because we may still be able to buy low on some breakout candidates before our competitors realize what they have. While we want to avoid confirmation bias, this is a time when we should start to feel more conviction in how we are valuing young players if they show they are who we thought they were in camp. The opposite can also be true. We want to make room in our process for new information that adds uncertainty. Nobody is right about all of their offseason takes, and the ability to take in and process new information that challenges our preconceived notions is a key ability to being a successful dynasty manager. It is okay to get cold feet about a guy on your roster who is not performing the way you expected and try to salvage the situation by trading him for a player you have more conviction on. The key is to make sure you are contextualizing new information and applying fresh insights to gain an edge. The main focus of this month’s article is providing some tips on how to figure out which information should change your valuations and which information should be mostly ignored. One aspect of that process is narrowing your focus down to a more limited number of news items that you want to track more closely than others. We will go position-by-position to suggest some of these players you should be paying especially close attention to over the next month.
In this month’s dynasty trade value article, we will go deeper into the following:
- How to figure out what really matters during the preseason.
- The young player poised to potentially challenge for dynasty QB1 status.
- The running back room that consensus may be off about.
- The sleeper running back who you should be scooping off of waivers.
- The hyped second-year wide receiver who has major red flags.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues with a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total numerical value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.
What really matters?
Bar none, August is the most challenging month on the dynasty calendar. There is an absolute deluge of new information to take into account when valuing players. Ignoring this information is folly. We are receiving important new data points, and one of the biggest keys to being a successful dynasty manager is reacting quickly and intelligently to the latest news.
With each passing year, we have access to even more information. If a wide receiver makes a sweet catch in a training camp practice, we are likely going to have video of it, and it is probably going to make its way into our Twitter feed (or whatever it is now called) via one of the many content aggregators. This is a great development but makes our task even more difficult. Every pass catcher is probably going to make some pretty plays over the next month. We have to always be mindful of context. By itself, it means practically nothing that Josh Downs made a one-handed catch in practice, and it was almost comical how many times the video of this grab was repackaged and delivered to my timeline. If you are adjusting your opinion of a player due to a single highlight, you are doing it wrong.
While a single highlight should not sway your opinion on a player, that does not mean you just tune out this time of year and remain locked into your offseason evaluations despite new information. Instead, you want to add all of the news you come across to help constantly refine your opinions on players and make moves based upon those updated opinions to try to upgrade your dynasty rosters.
Here are my tips on how to best dominate August:
1. Take advantage of smart analysis. Unless you have a whole bunch of free time, it is nearly impossible to stay up on all the latest developments via primary sources. Take into account the opinions and research of those you trust. The best example is one of my favorite things that we here at Footballguys do — Weekly Training Camp reports. These come out weekly (the first will be August 8th) and include approximately 1,000 words on all the fantasy-relevant news for each team. We also distill this down even further to a handful of bullet points for each team on the news that matters the most.
I want to offer a quick behind-the-scenes on how this is put together because it is a project I’m involved with personally and that I put a lot of time and effort into. For the teams I am responsible for covering (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Indianapolis) in this project, I go deep every week. I read everything I can from local beat writers. Listen to team-specific podcasts. Search Twitter for news and updates on the players and position battles that matter. I take a ton of notes throughout the week and save a lot of links to articles, videos, and tweets and then condense all of my takeaways into these medium size write-ups and then further into the quick bullet points. I couldn’t go this deep on every team so I concentrate on just a few teams and then lean on others who are doing similarly meticulous work on the other teams to truly stay up to date on all of the happenings in August. Anyway, I hope you take the time to check out these reports; we put a lot of time and effort into them.
I also want to quickly shout out a few other great options for staying up to date this month. Podcasts are a great option for many. Check out The Audible’s Preseason Watchlist series that goes team-by-team through all of the storylines and players to watch heading into camp. Also, we have a great new dynasty podcast featuring Jeff Bell, Kevin Coleman, and Christian Williams.
2. Narrow your focus. While you can and should try to stay on top of all the news using some of the suggestions above, it can also be very helpful to narrow your focus to a smaller number of situations you hope to try to figure out. For example, one of my known unknowns this offseason has been the projected breakdown of running back touches in Buffalo. Is this going to be the James Cook show, or are we going to end up in a full-blown committee? Picking some situations you are most interested in trying to figure out helps drown out some of the noise. A big focus of this month’s article is making some suggestions on which situations you should be paying the closest attention to. Being early to see a player exceeding expectations either in ability, projected role, or both can give you a leg up on the competition.
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DYNASTY WEB APPS
We have introduced a customizable dynasty trade value chart that adjusts the player values to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring. It can be found here:
https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-dynasty-trade-value-app
Thanks to all who have helped beta test the new dynasty trade evaluator tool in development. Progress is being made, and the beta version will be made live for all to use within the next month.
On a personal note, I want to offer a sincere thank you for all of the thoughtful feedback the beta testers offered. It means a lot to me that you took the time to help out and be a part of what we’re building here.
Quarterback
| Rank | Player | Value | Superflex |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes II | 40 | 70 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | 35 | 62 |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts | 34 | 58 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | 29 | 56 |
| 5 | Justin Herbert | 24 | 53 |
| 6 | Lamar Jackson | 24 | 50 |
| 7 | Trevor Lawrence | 21 | 50 |
| 8 | Justin Fields | 20 | 45 |
| 9 | Anthony Richardson | 16 | 40 |
| 10 | Deshaun Watson | 14 | 37 |
| 11 | Bryce Young | 12 | 36 |
| 12 | C.J. Stroud | 10 | 31 |
| 13 | Tua Tagovailoa | 10 | 31 |
| 14 | Kyler Murray | 10 | 30 |
| 15 | Dak Prescott | 10 | 30 |
| 16 | Daniel Jones | 9 | 26 |
| 17 | Geno Smith | 9 | 21 |
| 18 | Jared Goff | 8 | 21 |
| 19 | Kirk Cousins | 8 | 20 |
| 20 | Brock Purdy | 8 | 18 |
| 21 | Kenny Pickett | 6 | 17 |
| 22 | Jordan Love | 6 | 17 |
| 23 | Russell Wilson | 6 | 16 |
| 24 | Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 15 |
| 25 | Derek Carr | 4 | 13 |
| 26 | Sam Howell | 4 | 12 |
| 27 | Desmond Ridder | 3 | 11 |
| 28 | Trey Lance | 4 | 10 |
| 29 | Matthew Stafford | 3 | 10 |
| 30 | Mac Jones | 2 | 10 |
| 31 | Will Levis | 2 | 8 |
| 32 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 8 |
| 33 | Baker Mayfield | 1 | 6 |
| 34 | Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 6 |
| 35 | Hendon Hooker | 1 | 5 |
| 36 | Sam Darnold | 0 | 3 |
| 37 | Stetson Bennett | 0 | 3 |
| 38 | Jaren Hall | 0 | 2 |
| 39 | Kyle Trask | 0 | 2 |
| 40 | Taylor Heinicke | 0 | 2 |
| 41 | Jacoby Brissett | 0 | 2 |
| 42 | Malik Willis | 0 | 2 |
PRESEASON WATCHLIST
- Anthony Richardson How big of a project is he? With his low number of starts in college, Richardson feels like even more of an unknown than the typical rookie quarterback. He might be really good and has an obvious path to becoming a dominant fantasy option. He also may be so raw that he can’t beat out Gardner Minshew to start. With a player who has such a wide range of realistic outcomes, we want to be fairly aggressive in updating our priors based on what we see from Richardson in August. Seeing how Richardson looks against NFL defenses during the preseason is one of the things I am most looking forward to, and it will have an impact on how I value him moving forward.
- Trevor Lawrence Is Lawrence able to make that leap to the very top tier alongside Patrick Mahomes II and Josh Allen? He is approximately four years younger than the top two, which would make it easy for him to ascend toward the very top of the Superflex rankings. We just do not yet know if he is capable of putting up similarly elite fantasy numbers to the top guys. We will start to get some answers to that question soon. The early reports out of camp are positive for Lawrence and the addition of Calvin Ridley could push this offense to a new level. Lawrence could see his stock rise even higher if dynasty players realize the potential of this Jaguars passing offense and start buying into the idea of Lawrence making another big leap.
- Kyler Murray What are the vibes surrounding Murray in camp? Even if he is not yet practicing, we should keep a close eye on what everyone is saying about Murray and try to look for clues as to how the new coaching staff views him. Many believe Murray is a glaring buy in dynasty right now. They very well may be right. We know Murray is capable of mid-tier QB1 fantasy production, and he turns just 26 years old this week. If he holds down a starting job for the long term, we could look back and marvel at his falling to the fourth round of Superflex startups (with similar trade value) this offseason. However, we were saying the same thing about Jameis Winston at a similar point in his career. Do not underestimate the risk here. Once a franchise decides they cannot win a championship with their quarterback, things can turn quickly, regardless of the player’s age. Winston went from throwing for 5,100 yards in his age-25 season to a fantasy non-factor basically overnight. Players like Carson Wentz and Marcus Mariota also saw their stars fade much more quickly than anyone expected. My personal take: Murray is priced properly right now as a high-risk, high-reward roll of the dice. That being said, we have to be open to the idea of moving right back up toward the top tier at the quarterback position if we see signs that he is putting it all together in terms of his maturity and off-field preparations.
- Bryce Young How does Young perform in training camp? We are understandably enamored with the fantasy potential of Richardson due to his rushing upside. However, it is worth mentioning that Young was the guy who many teams really fell in love with and identified as the clear top player in the class. Young could remind us of that with a big preseason. For a relatively flashy Number 1 overall pick, there is surprisingly little hype surrounding Young right now and I am curious to see if that changes if he looks like the player he was at Alabama in NFL preseason action.
- Aaron Rodgers We are going to see a lot of Rodgers and the Jets on Hard Knocks and it will be interesting to see just how good he looks. Rodgers had a rough go of things last year, but the change of scenery and fresh motivation could allow Rodgers to turn back the clock and put together a big fantasy season. Any hints we can get about whether Rodgers is looking at playing more than two seasons before retiring would also move the needle in terms of his dynasty valuation. There has been a buy low window here on Rodgers that may close if he looks rejuvenated over the next month.
- Trey Lance It is becoming clear that Lance is not going to win the starting job for the 49ers to start the season. However, his performance in preseason games is going to go a long ways towards determining if he gets another shot to start somewhere else in the next year or two. We have seen so little of Lance on the field against NFL defenses and getting a larger sample size of snaps in game conditions will be very helpful in trying to better assess his dynasty value.
Running Back
PRESEASON WATCHLIST
- Jonathan Taylor The contractual situation with Taylor is obviously one of the biggest unknowns in the NFL and a situation worth watching closely. From a dynasty perspective, it makes the most sense to follow changes in Taylor’s redraft ADP to try to fine-tune short-term valuations. He seems to have only dropped half a round or so (late second now), so we probably only deduct a point or two worth of value based upon decreased expectations for 2023. Longer-term, you would feel better if you were living in a world where he signed a nice big extension with the Colts and there was no drama moving forward. Unfortunately, we are living in a world where we might have to slog through multiple seasons of contract drama, given that Taylor will be a prime candidate for the franchise tag next spring. So it makes sense to knock a couple of points off his valuation for 2024 and beyond, also. Overall, this feels like it is going to be a headache worth avoiding in Dynasty if we can get still get 90 cents on the dollar for what Taylor was worth early in the offseason. That may not be possible. The good news is that Taylor is clearly a starting caliber talent, and he should be penciled in as a starting back somewhere over the next few seasons.
- Jahmyr Gibbs Is this a 60-40 split with Montgomery as the lead back and Gibbs as the change of pace, or will the roles be reversed? We have been noting here that there is already a strong case for Gibbs as the dynasty RB2, and that case has only been made stronger given the Taylor drama and the Jets' flirtation with Dalvin Cook. Still, we are going to want to see some real flashes from Gibbs over the next month to justify this lofty ranking. David Montgomery is signed for multiple years, so the split of snaps with the first-team offense is going to be very interesting to track in both practice reports and preseason action.
- James Cook We are also going to want to keep a close eye on how the Bills split reps between Cook and Damien Harris in camp. My gut read on this situation all offseason has been that the fantasy consensus is underestimating Cook’s likely share of the opportunities. This is a player in who Buffalo invested second-round draft capital and who looked good down the stretch of his rookie season, while the investment in Harris was a short-term contract for just above the veteran’s minimum. There has been a perception from many that the two are on relatively equal footing, but that may change significantly over the next month. If this ends up shaking out with Cook projecting as a true lead back who dominates the receiving opportunities out of the backfield in one of the league’s best offenses, then he has a chance to emerge over the next month as one of the biggest risers in dynasty valuation. The advice here remains to see if you can acquire Cook now before he emerges and take advantage of the discount that uncertainty offers.
- Deneric Prince We always want to be on the lookout for bottom-of-the-roster running backs with upside. There are plenty to monitor over the next month, but Prince is a player who is worth paying special attention to. We already know that the Kansas City backfield can be a fantasy goldmine. Just last season, veteran journeyman Jerick McKinnon was the second most valuable running back in the fantasy playoffs (including an overall RB1 performance in Week 15 and RB7 in Week 17). We also saw Isiah Pacheco rise from obscurity to rush for 830 yards last season. While both McKinnon and Pacheco are back this year, neither is the type of dominant talent that makes Prince winning a major role an impossibility. Other late-round or undrafted rookie backs to keep an eye on include Chase Brown, Deuce Vaughn, Jaleel McLaughlin, Kenny McIntosh and Evan Hull. Each of these guys has a shot to emerge as an early contributor, and some of them are available on waiver wires. While we typically focus on trades at this time of year, making waiver claims to bolster the bottom of our rosters is also an important component of building better dynasty teams.