Three weeks into the regular season, there are early trends in scoring and performance that can make a change in the market from the static offseason. During the offseason, the market gets set, and there rarely is much market movement. However, three weeks into the season, there is enough information to change the offseason market. Now, there will be trades to be made that would be unthinkable in August.
This is the time of year to be willing to buy slow-starting players who had high-level prices throughout the offseason. The offseason market is a good predictor of future success, particularly in the high price players with a good production history. This is especially true at quarterback in Superflex formats.
Buy Low on Quarterbacks
Two quarterbacks who have been slow starters in fantasy football warrant exploring the market on.
Joe Burrow missed time during the preseason with a calf injury, which was aggravated in week two. Burrow was able to play in week three, but he struggled and did not look like himself. Overall, Burrow ranks 30th at the quarterback position, averaging only 8.9 points per game. This has created some concern in the dynasty marketplace. This is especially true for teams that thought they were contending but have not met expectations to date.
To get a sense of the market, here are some recent actual trades from MyFantasyLeague.com leagues. Every league is different, of course, but these trades in existing real leagues can give you a pretty good feel for the cost and type of trade packages in the market.
In a Superflex Format:
- Trade Away: Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, Tony Pollard
- Trade For: Joe Burrow
In a Superflex Format
- Trade Away: Travis Etienne Jr., A.J. Brown, 2024 1st-round rookie pick
- Trade For: Joe Burrow
In a Superflex Format
- Trade Away: Jimmy Garoppolo, Chris Olave, Keenan Allen, Jake Ferguson, Michael Pittman Jr, Puka Nacua, and 2024 1st-round rookie pick
- Trade For: Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase
Trevor Lawrence has also been an underperformer to date. Lawrence has only thrown for 6.5 receiving yards per attempt with a touchdown per game and is ranked 17th in fantasy football, scoring 14.4 points per game. Lawrence's production has been better than his stat line, which suggests he has been significantly better than his fantasy production. Lawrence ranks second in PFF passing grade (85.9) and third in big-time throw rate (7.6%) but has the second-highest rate of passes dropped by his receivers (11%). Lawrence's performance through three weeks suggests he is capable of a big breakout this season and warrants a buy low.
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Recent trades include
In a Superflex format:
- Trade Away: Jalen Hurts and Chris Godwin
- Trade For: Trevor Lawrence and Amon-Ra St. Brown
In a Superflex format
- Trade Away: Rashod Bateman, Bryce Young, 2024 2nd-round rookie pick
- Trade For: Trevor Lawrence
In a Superflex format
- Trade Away: Two 2024 1st-round rookie picks and Luke Musgrave
- Trade For: Trevor Lawrence
Takeaways
Not every dynasty GM will be panicking on their slow starters. This is a key opportunity to acquire an elite quarterback at a significantly cheaper cost than they were in the offseason. Both Burrow and Lawrence have a good opportunity to rebound and represent good dynasty buy-low candidates.