Defensive Back Tiers

Links to similar discussions on other positions:

Why Tiers?

Most fantasy owners are used to drafting off a simple ranking of players, but that can mask underlying differences that exist between players. For example, two players may be ranked right next to each other on a cheatsheet but there could be a wide gap in the expected production for them. In that case, you would probably want to draft the higher-ranked player a full round earlier than the lower-ranked player. Similarly, there may be a large group of players with very similar projections that are bunched together on a ranking sheet. It may seem that a player ranked 10th is much more valuable than a player ranked 15th, but if only a few projected points separate them then they are roughly equivalent in value. Rather than force yourself to pick one, it may be best to focus on another position and then come back to this position in the next round since you’re likely to get a player of nearly identical value.

Grouping players into distinct tiers or buckets provides additional context that allows a drafter to make more informed decisions. The projections we offer at Footballguys also help a lot in this regard, but those are still static projections that may not fully indicate the range of likely outcomes for a player. For example, two players may be projected with similar numbers but one may have significantly more upside and/or a higher floor than the other. Those types of risk vs reward decisions are inherent in any fantasy draft. While drafting the safe players will typically help you build a solid team, you often need to take some chances and hit on some players who significantly exceed their preseason expectations to win.
Rankings are typically helpful in ordering players within the same position group, but tiers can help you figure out which position to take as you move through a draft. If you see a large group of linebackers that are all capable of putting up top-12 numbers but only one defensive lineman likely to put up elite numbers, it’s wise to grab the lineman and assume a quality linebacker will last until your next pick. This helps maximize the value of your pick and is a strategy that all strong fantasy players use to some extent.

How to Use the Tiers

1. These tiers are based on expected performance for the 2023 season in a balanced scoring system. While dynasty owners always need to consider long-term outcomes to some extent, the upcoming season is most critical for player value. I’ll highlight some dynasty stash options in a separate tier that you can focus on if you are less concerned about this year and want to focus on building for the future.

2. Positional classifications can differ depending on what your league-hosting website uses. For consistency, I will rely on the official Footballguys player classifications. For the most part, these should match up well with the major sources that exist online, but there could be differences. Assigning edge rushers to linebacker or defensive end (or edge rusher) is the main area that causes issues here, as the classification can have a huge impact on fantasy value.

3. Will add an asterisk (*) for any players that have added value in big-play scoring systems. There is a lot of scoring variability that exists among IDP leagues, so if your league places added value on big plays (i.e., sacks, interceptions, forced fumbles, etc.), this information should help you identify some key targets in each tier.

Safeties Tier 1: The Elite

• Derwin James Jr., LAC *
• Jalen Pitre, HOU *

While safeties are plentiful and, therefore, not nearly as valuable as linebackers and defensive linemen, these are the players who clearly stand out from the rest at the position. They should all post strong tackle numbers while adding in plenty of big plays to make them nearly as productive as the 2nd tier of linebackers. Given the depth that exists at defensive back, most will wait until the middle or late portions of the draft to fill out these roster spots. If you do take a safety early, however, these are the players you’ll want to target. Derwin James is an immense talent and has been an elite producer in 3 of 4 seasons, with the exception coming in 2019 due to injury. Jalen Pitre is coming off an incredible rookie season (99 solos, 48 assists, 5 INTs) and should remain among the best at his position, even with some expected regression.

Safeties Tier 2: Strong #1 Options

• Jeremy Chinn, CAR
• Minkah Fitzpatrick, PIT*
• Budda Baker, ARI
• Antoine Winfield Jr TB
• Kevin Byard, TEN*
• Jaquan Brisker, CHI
• Kyle Hamilton, BAL
• Justin Simmons, DEN *
• Jordan Poyer, BUF*
• Kyle Dugger, NE
• Isaiah Simmons, ARI

If you miss out on the elite safeties, you will find a larger group of options who are all likely to finish among the top-12 at their position. These players have a slightly lower floor but plenty of upside and can be relied on as every-week starters. All should push to finish with 70+ solo tackles and post enough big plays to offer several high-scoring weeks throughout the season. Jeremy Chinn could sneak into the elite tier with more big plays, while Minkah Fitzpatrick is known for big plays and needs more tackles to reach his ceiling. Budda Baker bounced back last year and will now have to compete with Isaiah Simmons in the Cardinals secondary, which should see plenty of opportunities each week. Kyle Hamilton and Jaquan Brisker are young players on the rise, while Jordan Poyer, Justin Simmons, and Kevin Byard are reliable veterans that have a long history of production.

Safeties Tier 3: Solid #2

• Talanoa Hufanga, SF*
• Harrison Smith, MIN*
• Grant Delpit, CLE
• Rayshawn Jenkins, JAX
• C.J. Gardner-Johnson, DET*
• Eddie Jackson, CHI*
• Kamren Curl, WAS
• Jalen Thompson, ARI
• Donovan Wilson, DAL*

The depth of the position quickly becomes apparent as you move into this tier, as there isn’t much separation among these players in terms of their expected production. Nearly every member of this group is a capable run-stopper who should post reliable numbers each week and give you a solid baseline of production. Due to some of their limitations in coverage, however, they may lack the playmaking upside of those in the upper tiers. While some free safeties who don’t play up in the box very often can make their way into this group, they typically need to offset low tackle numbers with high interceptions. Talanoa Hufanga enjoyed a breakout season last year and will remain a big-play threat given the strong surrounding talent in San Francisco. Harrison Smith is 34 years old but continues to play at a high level while Talanoa Hufanga, Grant Delpit, and Kamren Curl are all 10 years younger and, therefore, more valuable in dynasty and keeper leagues. Donovan Wilson has proven to be a very effective blitzer, while C.J. Gardner-Johnson hauled in 6 interceptions in 11 games and will try to make an impact on his third team in the past three years.

Safeties Tier 4: Top Backups

• Vonn Bell, CAR
• Jevon Holland, MIA
• Xavier McKinney, NYG
• Adrian Amos, NYJ
• Jessie Bates III, ATL
• Jordan Fuller, LAR
• Ryan Neal, TB
• Tyrann Mathieu, NO
• Darrick Forrest, WAS
• Julian Love, SEA
• Richie Grant, ATL
• Jamal Adams, SEA*
• Jayron Kearse, DAL
• Marcus Williams, BAL*
• Rodney Thomas II, IND
• Justin Reid, KC
• Brandon Jones, MIA
• Marcus Maye, NO
• Marcus Epps, LV

With the assumption that most leagues start two safeties, you should aim to get at least two and preferably three players from the first three tiers. If you miss out, however, there’s no need to panic as you can still build solid depth with players from this group. These players will be more matchup-dependent and carry more risk but will likely provide starter production for much of the year. Some potential targets here who may have added upside are Jessie Bates and Marcus Epps, who are moving from strong teams to several defenses that may struggle to get off the field. Jevon Holland and Darrick Forest are a pair of young safeties to look at closely as well since there may be some additional development coming for them. If you are looking for a safer option, consider some reliable veterans like Vonn Bell or Adrian Amos, who all find themselves on new teams this year. Jamal Adams has been an elite safety in the past and may return if he can stay healthy after playing just 1 game a year ago.

Safeties Tier 5: Dynasty Stashes

• Kerby Joseph, DET
• Brian Branch, DET
• Sydney Brown, PHI
• Jordan Battle, CIN
• Dax Hill, CIN
• Bryan Cook, KC
• Antonio Johnson, JAX
• Lewis Cine, MIN

We saw Jalen Pitre quickly rise to the top of the position as a rookie last year, but most safeties need some time to develop. This group includes a few players from last year’s draft class, as well as some rookies, who may be ready to emerge. The safety position is crowded in Detroit, so Brian Branch may need to start out as a nickel corner, while Kerby Joseph could face some competition from newcomer C.J. Gardner-Johnson. The Bengals and Eagles lost both starting safeties from a year ago, so there should be plenty of opportunities available for Jordan Battle, Dax Hill, and Sydney Brown.

Cornerbacks Tier 1: The Elite

• L'Jarius Sneed, KC *
• Marlon Humphrey, BAL
• Kenny Moore II, IND

Cornerback is an extremely deep position, and there tends to be a lot of variability from year to year as their value depends heavily on interceptions that are difficult to predict. This makes it more important to target players who put up more consistent tackle numbers since that added reliability allows you to start them just about every week without looking at matchups. If your league combines cornerbacks and safeties together, the top corners are still probably no higher than Tier 3, so you’ll probably want to load up on safeties first.

L'Jarius Sneed is always around the ball and sees plenty of action as teams try to keep up with the Chiefs offense. Kenny Moore took a step back last year but remains a strong all-around option. Marlon Humphrey saw a dropoff in his tackle numbers, but those are offset by a spike in big plays.

Cornerbacks Tier 2: Strong Starters

• Taron Johnson, BUF
• Nate Hobbs, LV
• Rasul Douglas, GB*
• Desmond King II, HOU
• Roger McCreary, TEN
• Carlton Davis III, TB
• Sauce Gardner, NYJ*
• Kyler Gordon, CHI
• Tariq Woolen, SEA*
• D.J. Reed, NYJ
• Tyson Campbell, JAX
• Trevon Diggs, DAL*

This group makes up the bulk of the remaining players who should be considered safe to start every week without worrying too much about the matchups. There aren’t many true shutdown corners on this list, so nearly all of them should see enough targets to make a consistent fantasy impact. They are certainly good enough to hold onto their starting jobs but not quite good enough that quarterbacks will avoid throwing in their direction. It also helps if they are aggressive and active in run support, which can boost their tackle numbers. In tackle-heavy scoring systems, Taron Johnson should get a clear boost as he almost never leaves the field and tends to rack up big production playing out of the slot. In big-play leagues, some key targets here would include Tariq Woolen, Rasul Douglas, Sauce Gardner, and Trevon Diggs.

Cornerbacks Tier 3: Top Backups

• Jonathan Jones, NE
• Charvarius Ward, SF
• Byron Murphy Jr. MIN
• Jaycee Horn, CAR
• Marcus Peters, LV*
• Asante Samuel Jr, LAC
• Cam Taylor-Britt, CIN
• Marshon Lattimore, NO
• Adoree Jackson, NYG
• Paulson Adebo, NO
• J.C. Jackson, LAC*
• Patrick Surtain Jr., DEN
• A.J. Terrell, ATL
• James Bradberry, PHI
• TreDavious White, BUF
• Donte Jackson, CAR
• Denzel Ward, CLE
• Marco Wilson, ARI

These players stand out slightly among the large group of backup cornerbacks, but the reality is they aren’t a whole lot different than the players who will be available on the waiver wire throughout the season. Many astute fantasy owners are comfortable picking up waiver wire options to start each week based on the most favorable matchups. Consider these players as matchup-dependent with an above-average chance to emerge as every-week starters.

Cornerbacks Tier 4: Dynasty Stashes

• Devon Witherspoon, SEA
• Marcus Jones, NE
• Christian Gonzalez, NE
• Joey Porter Jr, CAR
• Derek Stingley Jr, HOU
• Kaiir Elam, BUF
• Deonte Banks, NYG
• Emmanuel Forbes, WAS

There are always a large number of cornerbacks drafted, given how important the position is in today’s NFL. The problem is it can be difficult to predict which of these players will be given an early opportunity to start. Draft capital is one of the best predictors, however, so you should feel confident that most high picks will get a chance to play right away. When that happens, we typically expect a trial-by-fire scenario with opposing quarterbacks targeting them early and often until they prove themselves. When the player was drafted highly, they will also tend to get a much longer leash from their coaches which can help them sustain the production even longer. Therefore, all of these players are worth targeting for backup or taxi squad roles.