The Top 10 from Week 2

Matt Waldman's The Top 10 from Week 2 Matt Waldman Published 09/12/2022

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

Why not both?

Whoever said it's better to be lucky than good did not understand the value of the process. Being good generates luck.

The goal of this feature is to you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, but the fundamental mission is to get the process right. It's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls. Without a sustainable process, success is ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that has made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what SMU's Director of Recruiting Alex Brown has told me based on his weekly visits with scouts during his tenure in Dallas as well as his stints at Rice and Houston.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, that's available Monday nights during the season, is also a good source of information to begin your week as a fantasy GM. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 1'S CLIFF'S NOTES

This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list and after your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents who have the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.

Let's roll...

1. Saquon Barkley Is Back

I wasn't buying into Barkley this summer. Last year, Barkley was a hesitant runner in the open field who tried too hard to make opponents miss than use his size, strength, and burst.

You didn't need hindsight to conclude that Barkey's burst wasn't all the way back to pre-injury form and the subconscious doubts about the rehabbed knee led to overthinking and compensatory injuries. It was reasonable to assume, Barkley would acclimate to his overhauled knee in 2022.

Where hindsight would have come in handy were the parts where Barkley would not only regain his elite acceleration and short-area quickness, but the Giants would also feature him in a gap-heavy blocking scheme that maximizes his talents while minimizing his shortcomings as a decision-maker. We knew Brian Daboll used gap blocking in Buffalo, but the scheme hasn't been widespread in the NFL due to the athletic demands of the pro game.

At least until the past 18-24 months.

As the league's defenses countered spread offenses and RPOs with smaller and lighter box defenders, it appears this has made gap blocking more viable. It's more difficult for smaller linebackers and defensive ends to hold up at the point of attack, and it appeared most of the league was incorporating heavier doses of Power, Counter, and Toss — all run plays with pulling guards and/or lead blockers marshaling the strength of their resources to one gap or rushing lane.

Gap blocking asks the runner to do less manipulation of defenders into blockers and requires them to attack earlier. Athletic runners with size perform particularly well as gap runners, especially runners who are prone to poor decisions as zone runners because they try to out-athlete the competition.

The approach to Gap and Zone blocking for running backs are completely opposite ways of thinking.

Barkley starred in a gap-heavy scheme at Penn State and struggled as a decision maker when forced to consider alternative gaps. It didn't mean Barkley was a complete bust as a zone runner, but his performances were less consistent—even when accounting for a weak offensive line.

Just like the media underestimated a weak Texans defense that helped Clyde Edwards-Helaire look better than he was during his rookie debut a few years ago, there's a legitimate chance that the Titans' defense will prove generous to running backs all year. Even so, there are some ascending talents along the Giants' offensive line, and playing to the wheelhouse of one of their two best skill players — whose burst is back — is logical and productive.

Note how many of these plays had a pulling lineman or a draw-like element of immediate open space.

Fantasy Advice: Barkley is confident, quick, and attacking defenders when necessary. His first true test might not come until Week 6 against the Ravens. In fact, the best units he faces won't happen until the Giants face Washington (twice) and Philadelphia in Weeks 13-15. If I were drafting today, Barkley would easily be a top-10 pick in fantasy leagues, likely top-five if you aren't the least bit skeptical of the Titans as Barkley's Week 1 opposition.

He could be the league-winning piece for a team that got him as a relative bargain this summer. You'll probably have to give up way too much to get Barkley at this point. It means you'll need to build a strong all-around team or hope you also have a league-winning talent on your squad, like the alpha receiver in Minnesota.

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2. GABRIEL DAVIS IS A SCHEME PLAY; STEFON DIGGS AND JUSTIN JEFFERSON ARE MATCHUP PLAYS

I spent the summer defining the difference between Scheme Players and Match-Up Players because it should have helped you determine where summer buzz could exceed the limits of realism. Scheme Players are more dependent on the offense to marshal its forces to maximize their skills.

Davis is a great example of not only a Scheme Player but also one who can approach Match-Up Player production ceilings at various points of the year because of the strength of his offensive game plan and personnel. Davis' Week 1 performance against the Rams is a clear illustration of a player who didn't have to defeat tight man-to-man coverage to earn his production.

Scheme Players can be good starters but rarely do they become elite weekly producers in fantasy football. That said, Josh Allen is so good at working through pressure and making throws that most quarterbacks lack the power to deliver, it gives Davis an edge over other scheme players and more weeks of high-ceiling potential.

As opponents scout the Bills, they will become savvier to the schemed plays that get Davis easy points. The Bills will likely counter, but you still won't see opposing defenses sticking their best cover corner on Davis in pivotal game scenarios.

At the same time, a Match-Up Player also earns his share of schemed plays.

If the coaching staff is good, they can create a lot of schemed mismatches for their top match-up player. Many of Justin Jefferson's receptions came on plays where the offense found ways to align him against personnel with no business covering him — such as OLB Preston Smith — or presented either/or binds for opposing coverage based on alignments, routes, or other schematic wrinkles.

Of course, if you play Jefferson, man-to-man, he'll beat anyone in front of him because he's an elite athlete and technician at his position.

Fantasy Advice: This is why you don't draft Gabriel Davis so highly that you count on him to serve as a top-12 or top-15 fantasy asset at his position unless you're going so heavy at receiver that you've also taken match-up talents earlier. Otherwise, you're at risk of relying too much on players whose big weeks aren't enough to compensate for small weeks.

Davis is a great option as your third or fourth receiver, but if you're being offered Davis in exchange for a receiver who started slow but has the skills and quarterback to win man-to-man against the opponents' top cover corner, don't get suckered.

The Diggs and Jefferson videos against man-to-man coverage provide the techniques and athletic ability that we see from most match-up plays.

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3. Aaron Rodgers' Rookie Blues: By Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson

Remember Rodgers telling the media that Romeo Doubs made a "Wow Play" on a daily basis during the first two weeks of camp? Do you also remember when Rodgers told the media during the final weeks of training camp that if the young players didn't stop making mistakes they wouldn't see a lot of playing time?

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"Mistakes" in quarterback parlance are not running the correct route for the coverage.

Sammy Watkins is a veteran who has played in several offenses, more than occasionally at a high level. Even Watkins' acclimation to the way Rodgers sees coverage is a learning curve.

When you're a rookie, that learning curve often leads to the receiver overthinking phases of play that they performed with little problem in college. Watson had enough drops in the college game to worry some fans and draftniks. After spending most of his rookie training camp rehabbing a surgery, it's no shock that Watson will be overthinking simple tasks while his head is swimming with details.

Especially when the opposing cornerback isn't a kid from Northern Iowa, but generational talent Patrick Peterson. The fact Watson whipped Peterson on his first target is a testament to his potential. If only he could seal the deal . . .

Fantasy Advice: It's possible that Doubs and/or Watson emerge as more reliable options for Rodgers this year. After all, the Terminator was the Governor of California. For your fantasy team's sake, consider that Green Bay rotated receivers in and out of the lineup at a rate that indicates the offense is figuring out who Rodgers can rely on.

Add to the mix that Davante Adams is no longer ballasting this receiving corps, both starting tackles missed the game, and Robert Tonyan Jr is still regaining his form after rehabbing an ACL tear, and I'm having difficulty comparing the Packers' slow start in 2021 with what's happening this year.

I wasn't in love with Rodgers as a draft-day option this summer. When Allen Lazard returns and Tonyan and/or Watkins get more comfortable, Rodgers has a chance to return to his starter form in fantasy. However, Lazard is a good scheme player and not a match-up play. If they can't find another match-up play, this offense may disappoint relative to their collective draft-day values.

If you drafted Doubs and/or Watson, I'd sell high at the first opportunity. Lazard is a hold. Rodgers is a sell-high if the outlook of the offensive line's health becomes a long-term issue.

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4. Put Some Respect on Cordarrelle Patterson's Name

Gap plays will be one of the underlying themes of the 2022 NFL season. Gap blocking schemes also changed Patterson's career from that of a Pro-Bowl return specialist and highly scheme-dependent wide receiver into a dynamic NFL starting running back at an age most running backs are deemed expendable.

As explained last year in the early weeks of this feature, Atlanta followed Bill Belichick's lead and featured Patterson on I-formation Toss — a play that, when executed well, comes as close as possible to mimicking a kick or punt return. Patterson thrived on perimeter runs or toss plays with a downhill track between the tackles with a pulling guard and fullback leading the way.

One of the best open-field runners I have ever scouted, Patterson is becoming a more accomplished running back, not just an awesome athlete playing the position. And he is an awesome athlete. As linebacker-turned-commentator Jonathan Vilma notes, Patterson is likely closer to 230-240 pounds than his listed weight of 220.

I'd love to see Patterson side-by-side with Derrick Henry. Although Patterson is smaller, I bet most people wouldn't tell the difference if both were in a Titans' uniform with a face shield, long sleeves, and gloves. Especially when they attack the hole.

Patterson is also becoming a better cutback runner. It helps that Atlanta's line is affording him a lot of space, but it's still progress.

Fantasy Advice: Patterson is not too old to play the position. He was a special athlete at Tennessee who couldn't learn the intricacies of route adjustments many NFL offenses required of him. to thrive at receiver. He's found his home position with little wear and tear to his body during the journey to get there.

Patterson may only have another year or two, at best, as a starter, but his time is (still) now. Damien Williams suffered a rib injury in the first quarter of the Saints game and hopes not to miss additional time. Even so, he may have started the Saints' game, but he's in the Mike Davis role. Rookie Tyler Allgeier was the fourth-string back in this contest and was inactive. Instead, Atlanta opted for Avery Williams, a cornerback with the Falcons last year.

Atlanta did a lot to beat the Saints this weekend, including running it down New Orleans' throats with Patterson. If they didn't soften up their defensive approach late in the game, Atlanta would be 1-0. Their offensive line is a good gap unit.

Don't write off Patterson as a legitimate fantasy starter once again.

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5. It Took a While, but Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston Figured It Out

Atlanta played a lot of press-man early in the game and got pressure on Winston at the top of his dropbacks throughout the first half. This helped the Falcons build a lead that it held for most of the game. It was a good game plan for Dean Pees, Atlanta's veteran defensive coordinator.

At least until he softened his coverages. At that point, Winston picked Atlanta apart en route to a come-from-behind victory. This will be one of the narratives about the game. While there's truth to the story, Thomas's emergence against A.J. Terrell likely forced Pees' hand to employ zone coverage.

Thomas, who was supposed to be on a snap count this week, looked out of sync as a route runner and it was clear that Winston's had limited time with the veteran.

Winston also threw a target behind Thomas in the first half. At this point, I was anticipating the fantasy community proclaiming Thomas washed up. Then, the pair began to click.

Thomas' emergency also opened the field for a big play to Jarvis Landry. Last year, the Saints started hot against the Packers without a corps of quality starting receivers. Winston threw five touchdowns in that game. The offense fizzled as the season unfolded.

This year, the Saints started cold with three starting-caliber receivers and heated up as the game progressed.

I think they are just warming up.

Fantasy Advice: Thomas beat A.J. Terrell twice — an ascending man-to-man talent in this league. The offensive line is a lingering concern but not enough to sell high on Thomas. He's going to deliver top-12 production at this position.

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6. Unsettled: A History Lesson with the Chiefs' Backfield

Clyde Edwards-Helaire scored twice. The Chiefs gave Isiah Pacheco closeout touches in a blowout of the Cardinals.

This isn't really a committee, it's Edwards-Helaire's gig.

Not so fast.

Those who don't know their history are doomed to repeat it, right?

Here's a little Chiefs' history. When Andy Reid lacks an elite running back, he uses a platoon. He doesn't care about draft capital when using platoons. Correll Buckhalter. Charcandrick West. Spencer Ware. Darrel Williams. Knile Davis. LeSean McCoy (Chiefs version). Jerick McKinnon. Damien Williams. Pacheco.

Reid mixes and matches to see how these players perform. When one begins to stand out from the rest, he incrementally increases their volume. If they falter, he reverts to the platoon. If they continue to rise to the occasion, their workload increases until they become the lead back. Ware can attest.

Edwards-Helaire scored on two schemed plays: a shovel pass and a flat route where the Chiefs motioned Edwards-Helaire behind the formation and force the covering defender to run past multiple route runners to reach the runner. Edwards was essentially present and caught the ball. Any back on any roster with decent hands scores on these two plays.

While I thought the comparisons drawn between Edwards-Helaire and Brian Westbrook were a false equivalency, I also believe Edwards-Helaire is good enough to be a productive fantasy option as a receiver and early-down runner. I also know that Andy Reid values backs who can handle all facets of the receiving game.

This is why Ware and Kareem Hunt were going to be a platoon before Ware suffered a season-ending injury. At that point, Reid adjusted and dealt with Hunt's limitations as a rookie pass protector. Otherwise, Hunt would have remained in a platoon, as talented as he is as a runner. After all, Ware was a good pass protector and among the best in the league in yards after contact and yards after the catch the year before Hunt's arrival.

Edwards-Helaire is still not a strong pass protector. McKinnon, on the other hand, can catch and block.

He's also a more explosive runner who would fit well with gap blocking, which seems to be the early trend for offenses to leverage their size against smaller defenders. Edwards-Helaire is a better fit as a zone runner because of his patience, footwork, and lack of top-tier explosion.

Let's also not forget Pacheco. It's true that he had close-out reps during a blowout. It's also true that the Chiefs entrusted him with the role. He also earned first-half touches in this platoon. Given Reid's history, we shouldn't discount the potential for Pacheco to emerge as a bigger piece of the backfield puzzle. He was a gap runner at Rutgers and, as I noted during the final preseason game, the Chiefs made the shift to more gap runner in what appeared to be an attempt to accommodate Pacheco's strengths.

Fantasy Advice: I don't know who will win the lion's share of volume in the Chiefs' backfield. Edwards-Helaire is the incumbent. McKinnon has athletic ability and versatility. Pacheco might have the most upside. I do know that calling this a false committee situation and proclaiming Edwards-Helaire the winner is premature.

I'd hold my shares of whomever I acquired—at least another 3-5 weeks. The safest play might be McKinnon. If you have a luxury spot, Pacheco is intriguing. Edwards-Helaire has the most value to lose but also has the most value of the three at present. Regardless of the winner, fantasy RB2-RB3 value is probably the reality.

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7. Enjoy Greg Dortch, But Look Forward to Rondale Moore (And May Apply to Richie James-Kadarius Toney)

Dortch was a heralded big-play slot receiver and return specialist at Wake Forest. More athlete than a technician, Dortch has worked his way into a contributing role in the NFL. He led Cardinals receivers this weekend in receptions and yards, showing off enough details to his game as a route runner against zone coverage and pass catcher that one can understand how Andy Isabella is not a factor.

As happy as I am for Dortch to have his moment, I can't help but think of Dortch's role than his skills. Kliff Kingsbury told the media that he was at fault for Moore's limited role as a rookie and vowed to change it. Based on Week 1, Dortch was in the Moore Role and it looked promising for fantasy GMs.

To some extent, this also applies to Toney, who, surprisingly, didn't start and only saw two touches the entire game. Richie James, a longtime favorite of mine, led the Giants' wide receivers in targets and demonstrated reliability. However, it only takes one play to see that Toney is arguably the most talented offensive player on the roster after Barkley.

Fantasy Advice: Dortch and James are deep-roster additions or desperation starters if your roster has suffered multiple injuries or indignities this early. If you have Moore and Toney, you have to hold onto them. Moore is easier to hold onto because health is (and may always be the issue) with his body-builder legs.

Toney is problematic. Maturity has always been a streaky thing about him, and it's easy to imagine that he did something that earned Daboll's ire. However, Daboll told the New York Post that "Toney lacked enough practice time this summer to prove he belongs on the field ahead of his teammates."

"Kadarius has done a good job of learning our stuff," Daboll said. "I have no concerns about him knowing our information. With our receiver position, it's a competitive situation. It will be evaluated on a week-to-week basis. Relative to inactives or play time, everybody has to earn their role. One week it might be a whole game, one week it might be less."

It sounds to me like Daboll is establishing a culture that has been missing in New York and pushing his most talented players to lead the way with effort.

I'm betting that Toney gets the message.

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8. Ezekiel Elliott And the Cowboys OL Looked Ready to Roll, but the Passing Game Is the Brake

The Cowboys line isn't what it once was, and injuries to Tyron Smith and Connor McGovern haven't helped. The unit still managed to create nice creases for Elliott against a tough Buccaneers' run defense.

Fantasy Advice: The issue for fantasy GMs isn't Elliott's play or even the offensive line. It's whether there's enough firepower in the passing game for opposing defenses to stack the box and are Cooper Rush to throw to Noah Brown, Dennis Houston, Dallas Schultz, and CeeDee Lamb. Odds are high that the answer is "no," even if Rush has shown some skill as a backup-caliber passer.

If you drafted Elliott, you're hoping that you can hold him and maintain a competitive roster for the next 5-6 weeks. At this point, Dallas will have enough weapons to take the pressure off the ground game. Between then and now? Cincinnati (Week 2) and Philadelphia (Week 6) could easily force Dallas out of run-heavy scripts. The Giants, Commanders, and the leaky offensive line of the Rams could keep the Cowboys' offense in games and make Elliott a viable matchup play as a second or third back in your lineup.

Even so, it's a boom-bust prospect because backup quarterbacks are prone to 3-4 big mistakes that can take their teams out of games.

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9. Allen Robinson Was the Victim of Familiarity, but More Horrors May Await Him

The most common question I saw on social media on Thursday night was about Robinson's lack of production and the possibility that he's washed up. The answer is rooted in real football.

The Rams told the media that the reason for Robinson's nearly non-existent performance was the type of zone coverage the Bills played. This is true, but a lot of students of the game take this comment too literally and then question if Matthew Stafford is reading the coverage correctly.

This is the equivalent of people who learn the rules of grammar, read a celebrated author, and attempt to edit their use of slang.

Whether it's a scheme in relation to football, grammar in relation to fiction, or music theory related to improvisation, rules are guidelines.

Stafford's decision to lean on Cooper Kupp is rooted in his experience veering away from the guidelines in a way that's common for many NFL quarterbacks.

You can reconcile the explanation from Honest NFL, a former college quarterback and NFL scout, with every snap from the Coach's Tape:

When you combine the quick pressure that the Bills generated with only four defenders with the coverage, and Stafford's familiarity with Kupp, it's logical that Robinson was left wanting for targets.

Fantasy Advice: Don't overthink Robinson's lack of production. He's still a skilled starter who performed well in training camp. It is worth considering that the Rams' offensive line is a legitimate hindrance to the fantasy value of all the Rams' options with the exception of Kupp. Andrew Whitworth was an anchor at left tackle, and the team sorely misses him.

At the same time, the Bills have an excellent defense. A more realistic worst-case expectation is that he performs as a match-up fantasy starter against the Falcons, Cardinals, Panthers, Bengals, Seahawks, and Raiders. A mid-line outcome is Stafford and Robinson gaining more rapport as the season unfolds. Last year, Stafford was slow to include Robert Woods. By the time Woods tore his ACL, he turned it around and was a borderline fantasy WR1.

Hold onto Robinson, but monitor the progress of this offensive line, because if Stafford lacks time for intermediate and deep routes, Robinson's fantasy prospects won't improve enough to rely on him.

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10. Fresh Fish

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Gary Noteboom

Andrew Whitworth's retirement led to Noteboom facing Von Miller in Week 1. Miller got the better of Noteboom early and the tackle lost all confidence.

Here's the rest of the list.

  • Atlanta's defense clamped down on the Saints' receivers early and its line generated consistent pressure on Jameis Winston. DC Dean Pees let up with soft coverage and the Saints came roaring back.
  • Marcus Mariota didn't help matters with a fumbled snap lost to the Saints with less than a minute left while still holding a 26-24 lead on third and short.
  • Matt Ryan felt sympathy pains for his old team, fumbling four times in the game, including multiple snaps.
  • The Patriots' offensive line blew two blitz assignments and they were the biggest difference in the game.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may all your bold calls come true.

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Photos provided by Imagn Images
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