Top 10: Week 15

Matt Waldman's Top 10: Week 15 Matt Waldman Published 12/12/2022

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

Why not both?

Whoever said it's better to be lucky than good did not understand the value of the process. Being good generates luck.

The goal of this feature is to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, but the fundamental mission is to get the process right. It's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls. Without a sustainable process, success is ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that has made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what SMU's Director of Recruiting Alex Brown has told me based on his weekly visits with scouts during his tenure in Dallas as well as his stints at Rice and Houston.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, that's available Monday nights during the season, is also a good source of information to begin your week as a fantasy GM. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often toward players who flash elite athletic ability, and I err more toward players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 14 Cliff's Notes

This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list and after your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents who have the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.

Let's turn this mother out...

1. J.K. Dobbins Is REALLY Back

Dobbins appeared confident with his decisions and capable of making solid cuts after his initial return earlier in the season from an ACL tear. He told the media that he was looking forward to getting back to doing what was expected of him, "rushing for 100 yards," and helping the Ravens win ballgames.

Soon after, Dobbins' leg didn't feel quite right. He had a cleanup procedure and didn't return until this weekend. During his time off, Dobbins told the local media that he had an eye-opening education about his readiness, and it taught him a lot about being patient with his body.

Reports were notably positive about Dobbins' performance in practice this week and judging from his 15-carry, 120-yard, 1-TD output against the Steelers, Dobbins is REALLY back. The initial burst, quickness in and out of cuts, the low pads, and the leg drive as a finisher were all there. You could also argue that Dobbins displayed more confidence with attempting highly difficult changes of direction that wasn't there earlier in the year.

The only thing missing from Dobbins' game was the top-end speed he showed pre-injury. I didn't feel like arguing with the follower who commented on Dobbins' never being truly fast. By next season, he'll see soon enough how explosive Dobbins truly is. Although quarterback is a grave concern for the Ravens for the next 1-2 weeks if Tyler Huntley's concussion keeps him off the field, the Browns and Falcons defenses are still beatable with a strong ground game.

Suddenly, that's exactly what the Ravens have with Dobbins and Gus Edwards returning to form.

Fantasy Advice: Dobbins has a legitimate chance to deliver fantasy RB1 value for the rest of the year. Considering that the Ravens pushed around the Steelers without Kevin Zeitler, that's encouraging for the next 2-3 weeks, especially if Zeitler is ready next week. It's doubtful that opposing defenses will play heavier personnel with Anthony Brown in the game and that means we'll still see Dobbins earn gap blocking that generates excellent runways into the second and third levels of the defense.

If Dobbins gets his conditioning back in the next week or two, we could see more of that breakaway ability that we got a glimpse of against Pittsburgh.

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2. Monster in The Making

George Pickens is a quarterback away. This isn't earth-shattering news. Still, it's sometimes comforting to provide additional confirmation.

That confirmation arrived for me when studying Pickens' positioning of his body and hands at the catch point of two targets on Sunday.

His athletic ability, hand-eye coordination, and acrobatic skills always allowed Pickens to flash greatness. His technique sometimes held him back from the more mundane plays that weren't easy, but not "wow moments." The best receivers make these plays of "mundane difficulty" look easier than they are. These two catches fit that description.

The only things missing from Pickens ascending to the tier of a weekly fantasy starter: More experience against top NFL corners and building a rapport with a capable starting quarterback.

Is Kenny Pickett that quarterback? Not today. And, if the Steelers' offensive line doesn't provide better protection, Pickett has a tendency to fold against pressure he didn't expect. If the Steelers can solidify the line, Pickett will have a fighting chance to become a Kirk Cousins-like starter who can support top talent.

Fantasy Advice: There's no doubt Pickens is a hold or a buy if you play in dynasty formats. In re-draft leagues, his value will be higher because of the fantasy analysis bordering on magical realism suggesting that "a full offseason will make Pickens better," but without explaining what specifically will get better and why.

There's a legitimate chance that Pickens arrives in even better shape and improves his route running through daily practice of techniques that help him get in and out of breaks faster. He could arrive strong, more explosive in the short area, running sharper breaks, improving his releases against press coverage, and learning more ways to manipulate coverage. Pickens' comfort with the offense and opposing defensive looks may grow and his film study could speed up his recognition of specific pre-snap or early post-snap looks that lead to productive adjustments and bigger plays.

There's also a legitimate chance that Pickens does all of these things but the Steelers' offensive line doesn't give Pickett enough time in the pocket to facilitate significant development and it ultimately limits Pickens.

Keep tabs on how the Steelers approach its line during the offseason. This will be the biggest difference in whether Pickens takes off in 2023 or he teases us for another year.

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3. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio Pre-Draft/Post-Draft Guide

I'm keeping this from last week. Everything I share in this column and other fantasy work is either a product of my work with the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP), or it informs the work I do with it. If you're new to my work and have seen my reference the RSP, or you've thought about getting the RSP but never have, I run an annual early-bird pre-order discount in December. This year, it runs through Thursday, December 22nd.

The RSP is a pre-draft/post-draft analysis of at least 150 rookies at the fantasy positions of QB, RB, WR, and TE entering its 18th year of publication. I publish the pre-draft every April 1 and the post-draft no later than a week after the NFL Draft.

You can pre-order here. You'll create a login and a password, and I'll email you when the pre-draft and post-draft are ready for download from the site.

The RSP is written with both a fantasy football and real football perspective. If you weren't aware, the RSP is one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL personnel staff (scouts/management), according to my source, SMU's Director of Recruiting, Alex Brown, who meets weekly with evaluators as the essential duties of his job at SMU as well as past gigs at Rice and Houston.

I've also done some low-level consulting in football with my scouting, recently with a known quarterback coach whose clients include NFL players.

I'm sharing this because the RSP is a detailed and unique evaluation process that often leads to a departure from the consensus draft media analysis.

RSP subscribers have reaped the benefits over the years, most recently by exploiting the values of high-profile players who weren't rated as highly by others (links are to sample RSP scouting reports):

On the flip side, the departure from the consensus also leads to cautioning my readers of players who may be widely and highly regarded but lack the foundational skills to deliver to expectation:

And of course, there are also plenty of examples of players who are annually drafted late, if at all, who show the skills to contribute, if not emerge as starters that the RSP identifies early. This helps re-draft and dynasty GMs identify value from the free agent pool as well as leverage favorable trades. Isiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones, and Zonovan Knight are good examples from recent seasons.

The RSP is available for $19.95 through December 22nd and $21.95 after that. You get the pre-draft, post-draft, and email newsletter updates throughout the year.

A portion of sales proceeds (over $55,000 since 2012) has been going to Darkness to Light — an organization devoted to training individuals and communities on how to prevent and properly address sexual abuse.

You can go here for details on what you get with the purchase — it's a lot, and it's valuable for fantasy GMs.

You can go here to see what others think about the RSP or ask around, most are pleasantly shocked, and most become annual subscribers. I'm sure you'll find folks who will remember my misses and like anyone in this industry, I have them and will continue to have them.

I will also continue to improve. That's always been an embedded feature of my process by design. It's a transparent process that's in the publication. Here's a sample of some of my evaluation methods.

Fantasy Advice: If you enjoy and value what I do here, on my podcast, TikTok, my site, my YouTube channel, and Twitter, the RSP is the best content I put out. If you prefer to wait until the pre-order discount is over — many tell me they do — I appreciate that as well.

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4. QB Bryce Young Under The Microscope

The 2021 Heisman Trophy Winner is considered one of the top prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft class if he declares; Young was a five-star prospect out of California's Mater Dei High School, the same program that was associated with quarterbacks Todd Marinovich, Matt Barkley, Colt Brennan, and J.T. Daniels. Young lacks prototypical size, but he possesses enough physical tools as a thrower and playmaker to earn draft capital not usually associated with passers who don't fit the height and weight of the Robo-Quarterback mold.

I watched Young's high school film a few years ago. One of the qualities of Young's game that struck me was his efficiency of movement in the pocket despite having the dynamic mobility to buy time. Usually, a quarterback with dynamic movement skills overuses it early on in their career and sometimes never refines their movements, which can place a hard ceiling on their development.

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Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
Analysis QB RB TE WR Baltimore Ravens Detroit Lions Kansas City Chiefs Pittsburgh Steelers Tennessee Titans Matt Barkley Daniel Bellinger A.J. Brown Anthony Brown Treylon Burks Nick Chubb Dalvin Cook Kirk Cousins J.K. Dobbins Clyde Edwards-Helaire Gus Edwards Pat Freiermuth Dallas Goedert Jared Goff Tyler Higbee Austin Hooper Tyler Huntley Lamar Jackson Justin Jefferson Aaron Jones Travis Kelce Zonovan Knight Cooper Kupp Drew Lock Patrick Mahomes II Baker Mayfield Jerick McKinnon Chigoziem Okonkwo Chris Olave Isiah Pacheco George Pickens Kenny Pickett Geno Smith Matthew Stafford Mitch Trubisky Jameson Williams Russell Wilson Zach Wilson Robert Woods Brock Wright
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