Top 10: Week 14

Matt Waldman's Top 10: Week 14 Matt Waldman Published 12/06/2022

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

Why not both?

Whoever said it's better to be lucky than good did not understand the value of the process. Being good generates luck.

The goal of this feature is to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, but the fundamental mission is to get the process right. It's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls. Without a sustainable process, success is ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that has made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what SMU's Director of Recruiting Alex Brown has told me based on his weekly visits with scouts during his tenure in Dallas as well as his stints at Rice and Houston.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, that's available Monday nights during the season, is also a good source of information to begin your week as a fantasy GM. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often toward players who flash elite athletic ability, and I err more toward players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

Straight, No Chaser: Week 13 Cliff's Notes

This week, I'll be examining a lot of players who should be on your Waiver Wire Rolodex. Are you young enough to wonder what a Rolodex is? It's the precursor to your smartphone's contact list and after your fantasy drafts, it's wise to build a preliminary list of free agents who have the talent, depth chart spot, and/or offensive scheme to deliver fantasy value for your rosters if and when an opportunity arises.

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points. I always provide bullet points for those lacking the time to see the tape examples and expanded commentary.

Let's turn this mother out...

1. JaMarr Chase Demonstrates What We Should Seek From A Fantasy WR1

What makes a wide receiver a potential fantasy WR1? JaMarr Chase's game is a good template for the characteristics that lead to WR1 production.

While speed, quickness, vertical leaping, and agility are all valuable, they are baseline requirements to make the NFL. Starters often have more of these athletic components than backups and WR1s often have more of them than contributors with WR4-WR5 value on fantasy rosters.

Even so, athletic ability is rarely the separation between a fantasy WR3 and a fantasy WR1. What about college production? While statistical data is a layer of information that can be helpful a significant reliance on it is like using diet pills to lose weight. It may do the job short term, but it's not going to sustain you long-term.

Techniques and concepts do a better job of defining that line between a low-end starter (WR3-WR4) and a WR1-WR2 in fantasy football. How a player tracks and catches the football separates consistent producers from boom-bust options.

Don't get me wrong, boom-bust options have value in fantasy football but they rarely attain fantasy WR1 value. Players who know how to position their hands based on the trajectory of the ball and use their fingertips to catch targets have the capacity to exceed the WR3 threshold (see No.2 on Marquez Valdes-Scantling below for more on this threshold).

Even WR1s experience lapses with catching technique, but they are occasional lapses or slight imperfections in contrast to significant flaws and frequent lapses.

The other separator between WR1/WR2s and WR3s is route running. The top receivers often run the greatest variety of routes. They often get moved around the formation and play more than one offensive role (split end, flanker, and/or slot). They also know the techniques to manipulate man and zone coverages.

The best of the WR1/WR2s can manipulate and dominate man-to-man defenders on intermediate routes within the range of 14-28 yards downfield from the quarterback's release point. This range isn't exact or official, I use 14-yard increments to divide up the distance ranges of throws for the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (to learn more about the RSP, read No.3 below).

This intermediate range is often the first read in a progression and the amount of time and space required to break open also requires a richness of details to manipulate or counter a defender one-on-one. This range also requires receivers to not only possess the athletic ability to separate but also demand that athletic ability is refined into techniques that make the receiver's movements efficient and productive.

Chase is a masterful route runner. You may think Chase is pushing off in the video below, but as I explain in the audio, these are legal maneuvers that any receiver can work into their game if they choose.

WR3s tend to run a limited route tree and their success with intermediate-range routes against man coverage isn't as high. What you'll find on film is that most receivers who will never transcend fantasy WR3 value lack the richness of technical details in their routes compared to WR2s and WR1s.

The final component I'll mention today (there are more, but these three are simple guidelines) is winning after the catch. There are many receivers who are skilled after the catch, but they have difficulties or limitations with the first two guidelines. If a receiver meets the first to guidelines and can earn YAC, you have a WR1 candidate.

Chase is known for his YAC prowess in the open field, but another telling part about his game—and the games of other WR1s—is that coaches and quarterbacks scheme plays to them in short-yardage situations because they believe the receiver is one of, if not the, best player on the field who can create enough to make the play.

Fantasy Advice: We know Chase is a WR1 for the foreseeable future in fantasy football. What is worth knowing is that sound pass-catching techniques, intermediate route-running versus man-to-man coverage, and YAC skills on "must-have" plays are three guidelines that often separate future WR1s from WR2s, WR3s, and flex options.

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2. Marquez Valdes-Scantling And the Fantasy WR3 Barrier

I won't draft players like Valdes-Scantling or Gabriel Davis inside of the 12th round of PPR formats. They may wind up on my team as late-round options, trade throw-ins, or waiver-wire bargains, but as a general rule, these wide receivers aren't worth valuing beyond a low-end fantasy WR3.

If you've done the math, you may wonder why I didn't state the guideline's limits to the 8th or 9th round in formats that start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 1-2 Flexes. The answer is rooted in the upside of a player and positional demand.

In the first 12 rounds of a draft with the lineup allotment mentioned above, I'm considering 2 QBs, 4-5 RBs, 2 WRs, and a TE. That's 9-10 of 12 rounds right there. So yes, there are at least 2-3 more spots for wide receivers with this guideline and that includes a WR3, WR4, and possibly a WR5.

That being the case, why not consider Valdes-Scantling or Davis as a WR4-WR5? If I can get them as a WR4-WR5 after the 12th round, sure. When drafting inside the 12th round, I'm giving preference to receivers who also have WR1-WR2 potential. While Davis is technically on the cusp of WR2 value right now, his point totals are a clear tier below the WR2s and there are a lot of WR3s grouped tightly with Davis.

More important than Davis' overall point totals is how he and Valdes-Scantling earn points on the field. It's becoming clearer to me that their technical limitations and flaws place a governor on their games — a likely barrier to long-term PPR fantasy WR2 entry.

Davis and Valdes-Scantling are an adventure every time they earn a target. I've shown enough of Davis' lapses this year. Both have elite quarterbacks in offenses that manufacture big-play targets for them. The problem is they lack the prowess to attack the football in a technically-sound manner to optimize their chances.

The last point I state with Valdes-Scantling I make in the final Tweet is not sarcasm. When you think about what a receiver has to do to make up for their difficulty with tracking or initially catching the football, it's impressive that Valdes-Scantling can recover well enough to have a starting job with two NFL offenses featuring future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks.

Still, it doesn't make these tall, fast athletes top-notch wide receivers for fantasy football. Low-range starters? Sure. How about as mid-range starters in a great offense having a tremendous year? Sometimes, but not enough to bet on it.

Fantasy Advice: If a receiver doesn't use the correct overhand technique with their hands close together to catch targets with their fingertips and do so without clapping into the ball, it's a simple guideline to cap their value at a fantasy WR3 role.

I had to face this reality in a league this week. I'm 10-3 and just beat the 11-2 team two weeks ago, thanks to a historical effort from Josh Jacobs. Otherwise, this 11-2 team has only lost 4 games with its all-play record and its bench nearly outscores my starting lineups' season-long output. I was legitimately Buster Douglas to his Mike Tyson in Week 13.

My team has Justin Jefferson, but the other starter is a weekly choice between Jerry Jeudy, Devin Duvernay, and Valdes-Scantling. Don't bash my receivers until you understand that this is a Dynasty league where players only have four years of eligibility to be on any roster. Once they enter year five (there is a fifth-year red-shirt exception), they are no longer eligible to play in the league.

If I face the Tyson-like team in the playoffs, I know it will be better to have consistent players with big-week upside than inconsistent options with the occasional big game. So I gave up a second route pick for what's essentially D.K. Metcalf as a playoff rental because he'll no longer be roster eligible at year's end.

While most of you have long seen Valdes-Scantling as a WR3, at best, Davis is a recent option who earned "future WR1" hype and got value as a mid-range WR2 in many formats. The guideline I mentioned above should give you healthy limits that show you where your choices veer into the high-risk territory.

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3. The Rookie Scouting Portfolio Pre-Draft/Post-Draft Guide

Everything I share in this column and other fantasy work is either a product of my work with the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP) or it informs the work I do with it. If you're new to my work and have seen my reference the RSP or you've thought about getting the RSP but never have, I run an annual early-bird pre-order discount in December. This year, it runs through Thursday, December 22nd.

The RSP is a pre-draft/post-draft analysis of at least 150 rookies at the fantasy positions of QB, RB, WR, and TE entering its 18th year of publication. I publish the pre-draft every April 1 and the post-draft no later than a week after the NFL Draft.

You can pre-order here. You'll create a login and a password, and I'll email you when the pre-draft and post-draft are ready for download from the site.

The RSP is written with both a fantasy football and real football perspective. If you weren't aware, the RSP is one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL personnel staff (scouts/management) according to my source, SMU's Director of Recruiting, Alex Brown, who meets weekly with evaluators as the essential duties of his job at SMU as well as past gigs at Rice and Houston.

I've also done some low-level consulting in football with my scouting, recently with a known quarterback coach whose clients include NFL players.

I'm sharing this because the RSP is a detailed and unique evaluation process that often leads to a departure from the consensus draft media analysis.

RSP subscribers have reaped the benefits over the years, most recently by exploiting the values of high-profile players who weren't rated as highly by others (links are to sample RSP scouting reports):

On the flip side, the departure from the consensus also leads to cautioning my readers of players who may be widely and highly regarded but lack the foundational skills to deliver to expectation:

And of course, there are also plenty of examples of players who are annually drafted late, if at all, who show the skills to contribute, if not emerge as starters that the RSP identifies early. This helps re-draft and dynasty GMs identify value from the free agent pool as well as leverage favorable trades. Isiah Pacheco, Aaron Jones, and Zonovan Knight are good examples from recent seasons.

The RSP is available for $19.95 through December 22nd and $21.95 after that. You get the pre-draft, post-draft, and email newsletter updates throughout the year.

A portion of sales proceeds (over $55,000 since 2012) has been going to Darkness to Light — an organization devoted to training individuals and communities on how to prevent and properly address sexual abuse.

You can go here for details on what you get with the purchase — it's a lot and it's valuable for fantasy GMs.

You can go here to see what others think about the RSP, or ask around, most are pleasantly shocked, and most become annual subscribers. I'm sure you'll find folks who will remember my misses and like anyone in this industry, I have them and will continue to have them.

I will also continue to improve. That's always been an embedded feature of my process by design. It's a transparent process that's in the publication. Here's a sample of some of my evaluation methods.

Fantasy Advice: If you enjoy and value what I do here, on my podcast, TikTok, my site, my YouTube channel, and Twitter, the RSP is the best content I put out. If you prefer to wait until the pre-order discount is over — many tell me they do — I appreciate that as well.

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4. QB Anthony Richardson Declares for the 2023 NFL Draft

Anthony Richardson is a polarizing prospect in the NFL Draft community. I do my best not to spend much time listening to what others have to say at this point of the year, but from what little I’ve gathered, the draft public loves his arm, big frame, running ability, and upper-body mechanics.

They’re scared of his decision-making and footwork. They see moments of impulsive decision-making and wonder aloud about Richardson’s readiness to lead an NFL offense in 2023. They fear if Richardson doesn’t earn a quarterback-friendly head coach, the NFL could grind him up and spit him out by 2025.

Most early-round quarterbacks need a staff that will work with their strengths and minimizes demands that play into the passer’s weaknesses. The contrast in coaching styles and offensive planning of Mike McDaniel and Brian Flores illustrates the differences in Tua Tagovailoa’s production.

You could see the promise in Tagovailoa’s game during his initial NFL starts despite the hand-wringing from fans and film analysts who panned the first-round prospect. They lacked perspective.

Richardson, like all early-round quarterback prospects, has flaws. Some of those flaws are overstated, and it has led the public to question Richardson’s readiness. While I have more to watch, the simple answer to his readiness is yes.

I’m going to do multiple RSP Film Rooms on Richardson’s game this year. After studying him against Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee, it’s clear that Richardson has the baseline tools of a strong pocket manager and a cunning field general.

Yes, Richardson has made impulsive-untimely mistakes. Certainly, there can be added weight to certain mistakes, but we tend to overrate the value, penalizing prospects too harshly.

Part of the problem is that evaluators can be guilty of watching these moments more as fans and adding a narrative to the flaw based on the setting of the mistake. The list of quarterbacks labeled clutch players and choke artists at various points of their careers is too long to mention.

From what I’ve seen of Richardson, he’s skilled at manipulating defenders both in and outside the pocket. He also processes many complex scenarios efficiently and hasn’t earned enough praise for doing so.

This week’s RSP Film Room profiles 20 minutes of plays highlighting Richardson’s pocket and field marshall skills — the two facets of quarterbacking that are the most difficult to teach once players reach this level of play.

Fantasy Advice: If we’re going to learn from Josh Allen, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, or even go as far back as Steve McNair, we must recognize the skills that quarterbacks must have in strong supply before joining the NFL that serve as a foundation for additional growth at the position. It’s not just about the coach or system.

Yes, the system can be a huge factor, but if the quarterback processes defenses at a solid game speed and has legitimate pocket management skills, his growth potential will be more resilient to the environment around him. It’s not a guarantee, but it is an additional layer of value.

Richardson has that layer to his game. If I'm going to take a shot on a quarterback who some label as a potential high-round projection, I like Richardson a lot more than I ever liked Mayfield, Wilson, Lock, Mitchell Trubsiky, or Desmond Ridder.

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5. Brock Purdy: Can He Remain the Substitute Teacher?

The short answer? Yes. The detailed answer? It depends on who John Lynch can find and if Kyle Shanahan agrees.

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Purdy, a UDFA from the 2022 class, is the type of talent I thought could work himself into playing time in 2-3 years. Although I heard concerns about him anticipating phantom pressure and lacking strong pocket skills, I disagreed with that assessment. Based on the games I studied closely, PUrdy showed timely reactions to pressure and a good movement plan.

He's a skilled on-script player who can win from the pocket, often delivering pinpoint passes into tight zones.

As is the case with most backups, Purdy doesn't thrive off-script at a high level. Force him to create or lean on velocity to make up for a late read and that's where his flaws show up on film. Purdy has always been guilty of that early-career, Kirk Cousins-like behavior of trying to write checks his body can't cash.

You'll also see criticism about him missing an open man like the one below, but even veterans miss open receivers. Give Purdy enough playing time to see whether this becomes a persistent issue before criticizing him heavily for it.

Purdy performed well as an off-the-bench starter. He displayed good placement in tight zones, made plays under pressure, and executed schemed plays effectively. He's a competent, on-script backup if this continues. He must limit his impulsive tendencies when forced to go off-script. This was part of his scouting report at Iowa State.

Lynch may decide to acquire a veteran free-agent quarterback with starter experience for the playoff-bound 49ers. It's a common tactic from the NFL GM playbook. If he does, bet on Lynch acquiring a free agent with experience with at least a variant of Shanahan's offensive scheme.

The most obvious option is Baker Mayfield, who operated Kevin Stefanski's offense last year in Cleveland. Stefanski's offense is a variant of the Gary Kubiak offense that is closely related to Shanahan's scheme. The downside of Mayfield is his immaturity as a leader, his accuracy and field vision, and his lack of pocket ownership.

If they can afford Mayfield as a backup and only roll with him if he's earned multiple weeks of time on the bench to acclimate to the system or as a last resort, I can see the potential value. However, I think San Francisco would be better suited to letting things play out with Purdy, whose tape shows that he's comfortable with the offense even if the acclimation to game speed and off-script decisions had shaky moments, which is to be expected.

Fantasy Advice: If you play in a Super Flex format, Purdy is in a similar QB2 tier as Mike White. I'd roll the dice on him ahead of a preemptive play for Mayfield.

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6. Jordan Mason Is Worth A Roster Spot

A well-built runner with enough top speed to beat safeties and hold off some cornerbacks in the open field, Mason has the size and strength to run through reaches and wraps. He’s also one of the better backs in the draft at making defenders miss. He layers moves together very well for a back with a downhill mentality, although at Georgia Tech, he could get too caught up in making one extra move at the expense of building up momentum and trucking the defender with his size. While I thought it was a long shot, I labeled Mason in the 2022 RSP as a candidate capable of a better pro career than a college career.

While Mason isn't usurping Christian McCaffrey anytime soon, it's always worth knowing about Shanahan running backs on their depth chart — Mike or Kyle — due to the system, the linemen, and the injuries to the depth chart.

There are two plays from Sunday's game that show fantasy GMs enough about Mason to add him to the back end of a roster when there's room. The first is the simplest reason: The 49ers open canyons with their offensive line.

The second: Mason shows skills to set up interior defenders into blockers on wide zone runs. This means Mason has the decision-making and footwork to help his teammates create creases as opposed to simply finding those that are already there.

Fantasy Advice: Mason is a mid-range flex-play who could deliver starter points as long as Purdy limits mistakes. If I inserted Garoppolo into Purdy's place, that statement would have begun with Mason as a high-end flex-play.

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7. Christian Watson Is On A Path to Becoming A Fantasy WR1

Let's take a stroll down memory lane, shall we? It's mid-September, and the Packers' defense is giving up a season's worth of Sammy Watkins' production to Justin Jefferson. On the other side of the ball, rookie Christian Watson has a story that I said he'll be telling forever.

@mattwaldmanrsp #ChristianWatson ♬ original sound - Matt Waldman

Here's why I said he'll be telling it forever: Because it was never a doubt in my mind that he'd be good enough to share this moment as a teachable moment about having humility early in your career on a big stage. As we've seen in recent weeks, this play above where he whoops Patrick Peterson is more memorable for his athletic skills than his lapse with technique at the catch point.

Watson was my WR6 in this year's rich class of wide receiver talents, earning a grade of 82.9, a rotational starter who can execute at a starter level in an offensive role that plays to his strengths and continue developing from there. That's a strong grade for a prospect.

After I wrote the RSP, I heard Watson earned comparisons to Valdes-Scantling. I had Romeo Doubs earning that comparison. The player Watson reminded me of if he reached his ceiling was Javon Walker. The mid-range comp was Martavis Bryant, and the comp if the bottom fell out...Stephen Hill.

Here's my elevator pitch on Watson and the fantasy advice that I still believe stands today. You can see the complete scouting report here.

The Elevator Pitch for Watson: The upside player worth taking earlier than his small-school billing in this receiver class is Watson. Tall, agile, fast, and bursting with developing skills, Watson may have dominated the lesser competition but the plays he made are rooted in athletic ability and positional skills that will translate.

Part of that acclimation will be adding weight to his frame, which Watson’s body can support. Expect Watson to be much closer to 220-225 pounds by 2024 and potentially more explosive than he already is. He has special teams experience with kick returns both as a return man and a blocker.

Although part of a small-school program, his experience as a route runner in pro-style offense gives him a sound technical foundation to build on. Releases, setups, and breaks will all need to improve but the understanding of how to create favorable leverage and earn separation is a part of his game. Combined with his elite size and length, Watson has the foundation to become a skilled route runner.

The area Watson needs to address first is his hands’ technique at the catch point. While capable of difficult catches that require athletic adjustments, high-level tracking, and/or contact with a defender to win the ball, Watson has lapses with attacking targets that lead to unforced errors. Because the proper technique isn’t foreign to him with any type of target, these issues are more lapses in detail than a problem that will require Watson to re-work his approach to pass-catching.

Once Watson has the ball in his hands, he’s a graceful and powerful runner with curvilinear movement to take the corner without losing speed, efficient cuts to make sudden moves away from pursuit, and the finishing power and contact balance to force gang tackles against larger opponents. Give Watson a year or two to add muscle, acclimate to the physical and conceptual climb in competition, and refine his route and release skills, and he could become the player Javon Walker briefly showed the NFL over a decade ago.

Fantasy Advice: Watson was worth a top-30 rookie selection in dynasty formats, especially for teams that have a block of early picks or an already strong contender that has the luxury to stash and wait. The closer the rookie draft to the NFL Draft, the more likely Watson’s value climbs to 15-20. Doubs is a nice complementary player, but he's more Valdes-Scantling-Davis than a primary.

Watson's hands are still an issue at times, but I think the lapses occur when he rushes his process because he knows he's going to have room to run after the catch. This kind of lapse is focus-oriented more than based on tracking and that's easier to fix. I think we're going to see Watson develop into a mid-range to high-end fantasy WR2, at worst.

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8. A.J. Brown, D.J. Chark, And Exceptions That Validate the Rule

There are times when receivers can't make receptions with the optimal position and technique. A.J. Brown was in this situation this weekend against his former team.

There was little opportunity for Brown to turn back to the ball and address it. The defensive back was too tight to Brown, and he was looking back for the ball while square with the receiver. Brown's understanding of how to work around this is a testament to knowing the limits of prescribed techniques as well as his skill as a ball tracker, which underpins everything about catching targets.

Browns' catch is the technical/conceptual exception to the rule that validates the rules of addressing targets.

D.J. Chark has also developed into a technically-improved pass catcher from his days at LSU and his rookie year at Jacksonville. This is a great example.

But what's still a part of Chark's game is his ability to win targets with bad technique or targets where good technique isn't possible. There are very few receivers I have scouted who win this way and had NFL careers as contributors. Golden Tate and Terry McLaurin are the best. Ted Ginn Jr managed as a deep threat who was drafted too early for his output. Early Doucet never earned more than 689 yards during a season but had a five-year career.

Chark has a chance to be in the Tate Tier because he has learned good techniques but can still deliver without them.

Fantasy Advice: Chark may not become a WR1 in the NFL, but from what I'm seeing, I think he still has the potential to become a strong fantasy WR2. I'd buy low on him in dynasty formats.

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9. How the Chiefs Countered the Defenses That STopped Them in 2021

I've spent a good portion of the NFL season, like many analysts, discussing the two-high shells that defenses have played to limit NFL passing games and how this began with the way opposing defenses limited the Chiefs. The specific defense was the Fangio Cover 6 with two high safeties and the ability to play quarters that could mix zone and man principles depending on offensive alignments.

The basics: The coverage prevented offenses from having the numbers advantage while also taking away the deep game. One solution I've highlighted this year is for offenses to run the ball, especially with gap plays that feature bigger offensive players against smaller defensive personnel.

The other is to regain the numbers advantage on one side of the ball. The Chiefs have looked at the college game and have tailored an alignment split to its needs. This is the 1-4 split.

If you're interested in the details, this is an excellent video breakdown of how it works and what the Chiefs do with it. Although Kansas City lost to the Bengals this weekend, Cincinnati didn't nullify this tactic. They won by getting home with two- and three-man pass rushes and forcing a Travis Kelce fumble late in the game.

Fantasy Advice: This summer, dig into off-season reading about offensive scheme changes with teams. If you read about teams borrowing from the Chiefs or splits from the college game, those teams are worth watching as offenses that could have a rebound with their passing games. It makes that worth an added layer of consideration when ranking those fantasy options.

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10. Fresh Fish

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than for our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Zay Jones

Drops. Drops. And more Drops.

Thanks for tuning in!

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Photos provided by Imagn Images
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