Thursday Showdown Week 5

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Indianapolis Colts are heading to Denver to take on the Broncos as 3.5-point underdogs. The game total is set at 43. Given the lack of offensive production for both teams thus far, this game feels unlikely to go over. It doesn’t help that both the Colts and the Broncos are going without their star running backs in Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams. Both teams are bottom half in pass rate over expectation with both quarterbacks struggling on the rare occasions when they do pass. We will be expecting a low-scoring defensive battle, but so will everyone else. To be unique we will have to identify which side of the ball will find success through the air.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Javonte Williams – ACL – Season-ending IR
• Melvin Gordon – Neck – Limited
• Russell Wilson – Shoulder – Limited
• Tyrie Cleveland – Hamstring – Limited
• Jonathan Taylor – Ankle – DNP

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Courtland Sutton
2. Russell Wilson
3. Nyheim Hines
4. Melvin Gordon
5. Michael Pittman

COLTS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Matt Ryan $9,600 – Flex

Matt Ryan has struggled to find rapport with any receiving option outside of Michael Pittman, and even then, the production has been mediocre. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of the last two games, but they came at the hands of Jelani Woods and Mo Alie-Cox. It is difficult to put a finger on exactly who Ryan will produce with which makes him tough to stack in small field tournaments. In large field contests, it is a bit easier to embrace variance and stack Ryan with one of his lesser rostered options. He has hit the 300-yard-bonus twice in four weeks, both in comeback attempts like what he should be in Thursday night. There is better option at Captain, but Ryan should be a staple in the flex paired with one of his pass catchers.

RUNNING BACK

Nyheim Hines $6,800 – Captain or Flex

With Taylor inactive, Hines will get a reasonable boost in workload, but he is unlikely to become a workhorse. Hines can be expected to handle over half of the rushing attempts and all of the pass-catching work which would result in 15 touch upside. Hines is a strong play albeit at a high roster percentage.

Deon Jackson $1,600 – Flex

Deon Jackson is the next man up should Taylor miss this game. He won’t be expected to handle a sizeable workload, but even five touches would be a win at his price tag. He will be an extremely popular punt, but he’s chalk worth playing due to his projected rushing share.

RECEIVER

Michael Pittman $10,600 - Captain or Flex

Michael Pittman missed week two and still leads the team in receptions and yards. The Colts have been able to find no consistent option outside of Pittman, which has resulted in his 28 targets on the year. In week three he was targeted just three times, as Ryan found a way to spread the ball around. Seven receivers caught multiple passes in week four but only Alie-Cox caught more than four. I am choosing to approach the situation with Pittman playing a role more similar to the likes of Stefon Diggs. His target share will be in the high 20s more often than not. Pittman’s roster percentage could be low due to his box-score production, and he has a high probability of being this game’s top scorer.

Alec Pierce $5,400 – Flex

Alec Pierce has been emerging as Ryan’s second option at receiver, but his target share remains low. He has seven receptions on the year with four coming in week three. He has failed to overtake Parris Campbell in two wide receiver sets and he is ceding snaps to Ashton Dulin. At some point this season Pierce will shrink both of their snap shares. Pierce is a strong upside play at a price that should allow him to go overlooked.

Parris Campbell $3,600 – Flex

Parris Campbell is still playing ahead of Alec Pierce, but his target share has been mediocre. His role will continue to shrink with the potential to see fewer snaps than Pierce this week. He is priced nearly $2,000 less than Pierce which makes him a value, but he will be the higher rostered of the two. Campbell is fine salary relief to pair with Ryan in the flex but Pierce is the preferred option if he can be afforded.

Ashton Dulin $4,600 – Flex

Ashton Dulin had a strong first couple of weeks while the Colt’s dealt with injuries at receiver but has been largely quiet since. He falls in an interesting price range between Campbell and Pierce where he is worth embracing the volatility he brings with a snaps share ranging from 15%-45%. Dulin can be considered as a pivot off the more popular Colts receivers.

Mo Alie-Cox $4,800 – Flex

Mo Allie-Cox is leading the tight-ends in snaps but not by much. Allie-Cox had the two touchdown performance last week but Kylen Granson has played on nearly 50% of the snaps and is matching Alie-Cox in most statistical categories. Given the price disparity, Granson is the better value with similar opportunity. Alie-Cox is in play simply because the field is likely to drop down to Granson for the salary savings.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Kylen Granson $3,200 – Flex

Kylen Granson is a better value than either Jelani Woods or Alie-Cox. His price should increase his roster percentage but with Parris Campbell in the same range, it shouldn’t get out of hand. Granson is the preferred option over Campbell and is one of the best plays on the Colts’ offense if his roster percentage can stay in check.

Phillip Lindsay $400 – Flex

Phillip Lindsay was elevated to the active roster with the announcement that Taylor would be out. Despite some speculation that Lindsay will handle all early down work, it is Jackson who is ahead on the depth chart. Both backs are fine punts, but Jackson gets a slight lean based on time in offense.

BRONCOS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Russell Wilson $10,400 – Captain or Flex

Russell Wilson has been completing an alarmingly low number of passes over the last three weeks. He’s failed to reach 240 yards passing since he erupted for 340 in week one. With Javonte Williams out for the season, Wilson is losing his second receiving option. Courtland Sutton will be targeted at an even higher rate, but Wilson is going to be forced to figure out this passing game. He has added multiple points through rushing which helps with his floor, but Wilson’s involvement in the optimal lineup will depend on efficiency. In a low game total, he doesn’t need to go full Mr.Unlimited. Wilson should reach the Captain spot if he manages two touchdowns and 20 rushing yards on this slate. It will be important to identify who those touchdowns will go to as there may be an overall lack of fantasy production otherwise.

RUNNING BACK

Melvin Gordon $8,800 – Captain or Flex

Melvin Gordon had a rough week 4 resulting in a sideline confrontation but he now finds himself as the Broncos' lead rusher. His snap percentage last week was not indicative of what could be expected moving forward, even if Javonte Williams was not lost to injury. Gordon will regain a snap share of around 60% while splitting carries with Mike Boone. DraftKings did a good job pricing Gordon up with Williams’ injury speculation. His price will keep his roster percentage in check, making him a strong Captain option with plenty of opportunity to produce in the running and receiving game.

Mike Boone $6,200 – Flex

Mike Boone was already getting touches in the offense as the third back. He now steps into Melvin Gordon’s role with perhaps slightly less upside. Latavius Murray was added this week, but expect Boone to get the first crack at the expanded role. Boone is a bit expensive for his projected role but he makes a strong pivot off both Gordon and the Broncos' passing game.

RECEIVER

Courtland Sutton $9,400 - Captain or Flex

Courtland Sutton has more than double the receptions and yards as the next best option in Courtland Sutton. With Williams down, it is assumed that Gordon will take on a larger role in the passing game, but Sutton may earn an even larger market share as Wilson looks to get the passing game going. His price tag at $9,400 is plenty palatable as the highest projected player on the slate. Sutton is the slate’s strongest play regardless of roster percentage.

Jerry Jeudy $7,800 – Flex

Jerry Jeudy is firmly ahead of every other receiving option aside from Sutton. The decision point here lies between him and Gordon. We have them both projected similarly. It will be too expensive to play them both with Sutton and Wilson. Juedy offers $1,000 in savings and sees more valuable targets than Gordon even if they match target shares. If Wilson is Captain, lean Jeudy. If Sutton is Captain, lean Gordon.

K.J. Hamler $4,400 – Flex

K.J. Hamler flashed the Tyler Lockett-like deep ball role we were promised all off-season. He was awarded with a significant salary, putting him around the same range as the kickers and defenses. He also has all off the low-priced Colts to compete with. In this price range, I’d rather be looking at the cheaper Colts receivers than Hamler.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Eric Saubert $1,200 – Flex

Eric Saubert played 77% of the snaps to Albert Okwuegbunam’s 2% last week. The Broncos have struggled to figure out their tight end rotation, but Saubert is playing often enough to be a viable flex option at cost; especially as a pivot off the very popular Deon Jackson.