Thursday Showdown Week 3

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest owned player.

Game Theory

The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Cleveland to take on the Browns as 5-point favorites. The game total is set at a lowly 38.5. Neither team has a starting caliber quarterback under center, so the total is not surprising. This game environment typically results in higher-than-average roster percentages for the running backs and defenses. We will have a leg up on the field if we can identify a couple of pass catchers or even a quarterback who can outperform their median projection. Mitchell Trubisky is on bench alert with the Kenny Pickett chants raining in, which should keep his roster percentage low. I do not believe Pickett will see a start in year one, especially not in Week 3, so that would not be amongst my concerns on this slate. Jacoby Brissett started to get in a groove in Week 2, but the Jets' defense is far inferior to the Steelers'.

Injury Round-Up

• Harrison Bryant – Thumb/Thigh - Questionable

Captain Consideration

1. Nick Chubb
2. Diontae Johnson
3. Amari Cooper
4. Kareem Hunt
5. Najee Harris

Steelers Offense

Quarterback

Mitchell Trubisky $8,600 – Flex

Mitchell Trubisky has had a poor start to his Steelers career, but he is priced well. Through two games, he has two touchdowns and one interception. His attempts are reasonable given his price, but his completion percentage is not ideal. With such a low total, even the worst quarterbacks can find their way into the optimal lineup with only one touchdown. Trubisky is not in play at Captain but fits well in the flex with Diontae Johnson at Captain and no other Steelers receivers.

Running Back

Najee Harris $9,800 – Captain or Flex

In Najee Harris’ rookie season, he handled over 90% of the running back snaps. In his first two weeks, he’s handled 59% and 71%, respectively. He has been dealing with a Lisfranc injury all off-season and has clearly been playing at less than 100%. Harris has handled 32 touches in the first two games despite playing injured. Harris is one of the best plays of the slate on volume alone and could see an even larger snap share if his foot is genuinely healing.

Receiver

Diontae Johnson $9,200 - Captain or Flex

Diontae Johnson has been targeted 22 times through two games. The quality of opportunity just isn’t there with Trubisky, resulting in a catch rate of around 60%. Johnson has also failed to reach over 60 yards. With a lack of meaningful counting stats, Johnson may go overlooked relative to his opportunity. He is great leverage over Harris.

Chase Claypool $6,200 – Flex

Chase Claypool leads Steelers receivers in snap share at 92% on the season. He has been targeted six times resulting in four catches in each game. His average depth of target has been abysmal as he’s been utilized predominantly in the quick game. His price stands out as a unique option, but he is not getting the type of opportunity we look to for upside. If Claypool’s projected roster percentage is somewhere in the twenties, he’s worth having some exposure to.

George Pickens $4,800 – Flex

After taking the fantasy football community by storm, this preseason George Pickens has been quiet to start the year. He has been a huge difference maker by real NFL standards, but we care about opportunity and fantasy production. Pickens has been targeted three times in each game, resulting in two catches for 26 yards. If he were cheaper, he would be a unique contrarian play, but at $4,800, he’s simply too expensive for anything other than large-field tournaments.

Pat Freiermuth $7,000 – Flex

Pat Freiermuth has proven to be Trubisky’s most trusted target on crucial downs. He is second behind only Johnson in targets and receptions. At $7,000, Freiermuth seems expensive relative to most tight ends, but he is matching Johnson’s opportunities at $2,200 less. Freiermuth is a strong pairing option with Trubisky in lineups containing four Browns.

Under the Radar

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Jaylen Warren $3,200 – Flex

Jaylen Warren has taken every running back snap that Harris has missed thus far. For Harris’ upside, we would like to be optimistic and assume the increased snaps in Week 2 are indicative of improved health. For Warren’s upside, it’s better to be pessimistic and assume Harris still isn’t healthy. Harris’ snap share is entirely dependent on how his injury progresses throughout the week. The worse Harris feels, the more opportunities Warren will receive.

Browns Offense

Quarterback

Jacoby Brissett $8,800 – Flex

Jacoby Brissett is the only quarterback worth pairing with multiple pass-catchers. He has already demonstrated a strong connection with Donovan Peoples-Jones, and finally realized he should be targeting Amari Cooper. Brissett projects similar to Chubb but will likely see a far lower roster percentage. He makes sense with both Browns running backs, one Browns running back, or as leverage over the Browns running backs.

Running Back

Nick Chubb $12,000 – Captain or Flex

Despite playing just over 50% of the snaps, Nick Chubb is the top overall running back in fantasy through two games. In Week 1, he scored no touchdowns but managed 143 total yards. In game two, his yardage was down, but he scored three touchdowns. His median projection is similar to Brissett’s and Johnson's, but his ceiling is much higher. Chubb is the most expensive player by at least $1,200 and projects similarly to numerous other plays. If his roster percentage is in the 30% range, he is worth being overweight on. If he is being rostered in the 40% range, he is an easy avoid.

Kareem Hunt $7,600 – Captain or Flex

Kareem Hunt is handling the other half of the Browns’ backfield and performing quite well in his own right. Hunt is the tenth overall running back on modest usage. He hasn’t seen a tremendous amount of opportunity, but he’s been efficient. He is expected to handle around fifteen touches for the third game in a row and is $2,400 less than Chubb. If Chubb’s projected roster percentage gets out of hand, Hunt is an excellent pivot for a similar opportunity and increased savings.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are one of the rare cases in which you should play both high-priced running backs from the same team, even as Captains.

Receiver

Amari Cooper $9,400 - Captain or Flex

Amari Cooper was targeted ten times in Week 2 after seeing just six targets in Week 1. He should hover around ten for the rest of the season. Just as Johnson pairs well with Trusbisky, Cooper pairs well with Brissett. Playing Cooper at Captain and Brissett in the flex allows you to comfortably play multiple Cleveland pass catchers.

Donovan Peoples-Jones $5,400 – Flex

Donovan Peoples-Jones was targeted an astonishing eleven times in Week 1. He followed that up with just one target in Week 2, although he almost pulled off an incredible touchdown grab. His Week 3 range of outcomes is wide, which should keep his roster percentage low. His snaps and route participation were still positive last week. We don’t have many great options in the $5,000 range so Peoples-Jones should be a quality option with a low roster percentage for Browns stacks.

David Njoku $5,200 – Flex

David Njoku is leading the tight ends in snaps, but he is second in targets behind Harrison Bryant. Njoku and Peoples-Jones are essentially the same play, but Peoples-Jones has demonstrated a higher upside thus far. Both are fine options for Browns stacks. If choosing only one, Peoples-Jones gets the nod over Njoku, given his red zone opportunity and lofty Week 1 target share.

Harrison Bryant $4,600 – Flex

Harrison Bryant has not participated in practice to this point in the week. We will update his injury news as it is reported. He has played on less than 50% of snaps but leads the tight ends with 8 targets. If active, Bryant would be a strong option for large field tournaments.

Under the Radar

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

David Bell $1,400 – Flex

David Bell has seen only one target to start his rookie campaign, but his snap share puts him at wide receiver three on the depth chart. The Browns are running a ton of two tight end sets and two running back sets, resulting in just 30% of snaps for their third wide receiver. In Week 1, Bell split duties with Anthony Schwartz, but in Week 2, Bell overtook the role. Bell was a high draft pick and figures to get going throughout the season.