Thursday Showdown Week 15

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The San Francisco 49ers are heading to Seattle to take on the Seahawks as 3.5-point favorites. The game total is set at 43.5. The Seahawks have dipped slightly since their incredibly hot start to the season, but they’re still sixth in the league in points scored. They’re taking on the number one defense in the league and an offense that just dropped 35 points on the Buccaneers. The total is indicative of multiple key injuries, but if both Ken Walker and Brock Purdy are active and healthy, this game could easily hit the over. Most of the field builds around a hard-nosed, low-scoring NFC West matchup, so heavily stacking both passing games could be a worthy pivot.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Brock Purdy – Ribs – Limited
• Christian McCaffrey – Knee – Limited
• Deebo Samuel – Ankle – Out
• Ken Walker – Ankle – Full Participant
• DeeJay Dallas – Ankle – Did Not Participate

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Christian McCaffrey
2. DK Metcalf
3. Geno Smith
4. Ken Walker
5. Brandon Aiyuk

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Brock Purdy $9,600 – Flex

Brock Purdy logged two limited practices and is expected to be a game-time decision. We’ve seen enough NFL action from Josh Johnson for me to feel comfortable keeping him in the player pool if he starts, but he won’t be in Captain consideration for small-field tournaments. If Purdy is active, expect him to be highly efficient. We’ve seen two very different games from him in terms of passing, but both resulted in two touchdowns and roughly 200 yards. Another efficient game with two touchdowns will be plenty for Purdy to find his way into optimal lineups.

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey $11,400 – Captain or Flex

Christian McCaffrey’s recent performances have been deja vu. The offense has been run entirely through him with questions at quarterback. He’s been over 100 scrimmage yards each of the past two weeks and scored in each game. With Deebo Samuel inactive, expect McCaffrey to receive an even healthier dosage of the offense. McCaffrey will carry the highest roster percentage of the slate.

Jordan Mason $4,400 – Flex

Jordan Mason was rumored to have greater involvement in Week 14, and technically he did. His snaps increased from 18% to 30%, and his carries jumped from 8 to 11. At $4,400, Mason is more of a contrarian pivot off the defenses and kickers in his price range rather than a quality standalone option.

RECEIVER

Brandon Aiyuk $8,800 – Captain or Flex

In a two-game sample size with Brock Purdy under center, Brandon Aiyuk has been targeted nine and three times. His three targets last week make more sense with the added context that Purdy attempted 16 fewer passes. With Samuel out of the lineup, Aiyuk should get enough work to have a chance at the optimal Captain spot.

George Kittle $8,000 – Flex

George Kittle has had a rough season in terms of fantasy production, and even with Samuel inactive, his price remains relatively high. He has not received more than six targets in a game since week seven. He’s produced less than 40 yards in all but one of those contests. He’s expensive due to name value, but he's unlikely to pay off his $8,000 salary.

Jauan Jennings $3,600 – Flex

Jauan Jennings steps into the second wide receiver role with Samuel inactive. He will play roughly 70% of the snaps. The last time Samuel was out, Jennings was also missing time, so there is not much historical context to add. His salary is enticing for a near every down receiver who we expect to see roughly four targets.

Ray-Ray McCloud $1,200 – Flex

Ray-Ray McCloud also takes a step up on the depth chart and should play roughly 40% of the snaps. McCloud can easily pay off this price with one catch, and we expect him to see multiple targets.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Kyle Juszczyk $3,000 – Flex

Kyle Juszczyk has been targeted at least twice over the past three games, but he would need a touchdown to pay off $3,000.

Danny Gray $200 – Flex

Danny Gray played 21% of the snaps last week, and we could see him eat into some of both Jennings and McCloud’s work this week. We’ve also got the scout team narrative with Gray and Purdy. Gray is my favorite punt play in large field tournaments.

SEATTLE OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Geno Smith $10,600 – Captain or Flex

Geno Smith has hit the 300-yard-bonus four times this season and seems to have a shot at it every week. Even against the best defense in the league, I’m expecting Smith to find success through the air. Smith has only attempted less than 30 passes in three games this season, and he still threw multiple touchdowns in each outing. Smith has one of the league’s safest floors, and if the field is worried about the 49er's defense, I’ll be happy to stack the Seahawks' passing attack.

RUNNING BACK

Ken Walker $7,600 – Captain or Flex

Typically, full participation on Tuesday results in a player being active on Thursday. This is the case for Ken Walker. He’s a risky option as he plays through injury in a tough matchup, but at a lower roster percentage, I will have exposure to Walker, even at Captain.

Travis Homer $7,000 – Flex

Travis Homer struggled mightily in his lone start with Walker sidelined. He had a healthy snap share at 91% and was given 12 opportunities. If Walker's status takes a turn, Homer still deserves consideration as the Seahawks' primary ball carrier.

RECEIVER

Tyler Lockett $10,200 – Flex

DraftKings put the ball in our court by pricing Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf identically. Lockett draws the tougher matchup and is likely to be rostered at a higher rate, which are the only reasons Metcalf made it into Captain consideration over him. Both receivers are strong flex plays, especially paired with Smith at Captain.

DK Metcalf $10,000 – Captain or Flex

DK Metcalf is averaging 10.5 targets over the last four games and is playing nearly every snap. He has a slightly easier path to success than Lockett and should come at a lower roster percentage.

Marquise Goodwin $6,400 – Flex

Marquise Goodwin handled his second-highest snap share of the season last week (76%) and was targeted six times. His price is elevated due to his big game, so he’d have to at least match his reception total to make value.

Noah Fant $4,400 – Flex

Noah Fant is tough to project weekly, which should make him a reasonable contrarian option. His snap share has remained consistently over 50%, but his involvement is extremely volatile. Fant fits well as a third receiving option to pair with Lockett, Metcalf, and Smith, but Mason is the preferred option at this price.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Will Dissly $2,400 – Flex

Will Dissly has been far easier to project. He’s caught at least two passes in every game this season but hasn’t scored since Week 4 and has not produced more than 45 receiving yards. His ceiling is virtually non-existent unless he catches a touchdown, but his floor is as safe as it gets for this price point.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here:

Both kickers and defenses will be popular plays, given the nature of this matchup in the past. The Seahawks are the preferred option if choosing a defense based on salary and roster percentage. As always, be sure to strongly consider adding the defense to any lineup that includes five players from the same team.