Thursday Showdown Week 13

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Buffalo Bills are heading to New England to take on the Patriots as 4-point favorites. The game total is set at 43.5. Josh Allen and the Bills enter this week passing at the league’s second-highest rate, just behind the Chiefs. Mac Jones and the Patriots are fresh off a nearly 400-yard passing performance. If trends continue, this game will soar past the over. Unfortunately, no one predicted that sort of performance from New England and no one is predicting it this week. Damien Harris is likely going to miss this game, but the Patriots are still going to rush at a rate just over the league average. Even though the salaries are much higher, we’ll be looking for unique ways to fit four Bills into our lineups.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Damien Harris – Thigh – Did not participate
• Jakobi Meyers – Shoulder – Limited

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Rhamondre Stevenson
2. Josh Allen
3. Stefon Diggs
4. Devin Singletary

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen $12,200 – Captain or Flex

Josh Allen has had a couple of down games in recent weeks that paired with his salary could affect this roster percentage. Last week he only completed 57% of his passes and he still managed 253 yards and two touchdowns. Even when it looked like he’d be having a floor game, he came in clutch with 78 yards rushing. Typically, we’re used to seeing him at a roster percentage close to 90%. I’m expecting this week to be slightly lower. Regardless of roster percentage, I’m going to be building most of my lineups around Allen, knowing much of the field will be gravitating toward Rhamondre Stevenson for much cheaper.

RUNNING BACK

Devin Singletary $7,000 – Captain or Flex

Devin Singletary has played over 70% of the snaps for six consecutive weeks. He’s had over 13 attempts in five of the last six. He also had multiple targets in each game outside of last week. He’s being utilized as a premier rusher but is not priced as such. Singletary is one of the best values on the slate and is versatile in that it can be used to leverage Stevenson, Allen, both, or neither.

James Cook $3,600 – Flex

James Cook has not seen an increase in snaps since the departure of Zack Moss. He handled 11 carries two weeks ago and seemed to be taking a step forward but returned with just two carries last week. He has some receiving upside and is fairly priced.

RECEIVER

Stefon Diggs $11,600 – Captain or Flex

Diggs has 100 yards or a touchdown in 8 of 12 games played. With so many lineups being built around Stevenson it’s even more enticing than normal to stack Allen and Diggs. Playing all three in the same lineup can be challenging so Diggs and Allen stacks may surprisingly lead to more unique builds if they exclude Stevenson.

Gabe Davis $8,000 – Flex

If you played Showdown contests last year you remember the constant battle to catch the Marquez Valdes-Scantling week. Gabe Davis has become expensive Valdes-Scantling. He has near 200-yard upside with no rhyme or reason as to why he gets there. Over the past three weeks, he’s been more viable with at least four catches in each game. He’s too expensive for his usage because his ceiling is factored into his salary. He’s worth pairing with Diggs in lineups with Allen at Captain.

Isaiah McKenzie $6,800 – Flex

Isaiah McKenzie came out of the left field last week turning ten targets into six catches for 96 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, it earned him a hefty price hike. He’s worth considering in Allen stacks but Jakobi Meyers is the preferred option at just $400 more.

Dawson Knox $6,200 – Flex

Dawson Knox was finally ramping up his target share going into last week before receiving just two targets. He’s in the same price range as McKenzie and should post a much lower roster percentage. Knox should help keep the total roster percentage down in otherwise chalky Bills stacks.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Khalil Shakir $200 - Flex

Khalil Shakir has been targeted multiple times in six of nine games. Last week he managed his second-highest snap share of the season with 44%. There were no injuries to point to as to why we saw season-higher involvement from either McKenzie or Shakir. If that trend continues Shakir is far too cheap.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Mac Jones $9,400 – Flex

Mac Jones is going to be difficult to project this week. Typically, we’ve seen lower than-warranted roster percentages from underdog quarterbacks in the $9,000 range, so I’ve targeted them. In Jones’ case, he just threw for nearly 400 yards last week and looked proficient while doing it. Stevenson adds wrinkle as he is priced just $1,000 better than Jones but projects far better. My hunch is that we will see an extremely popular pairing of Jones with Stevenson as the field elects not to heavily stack the Bills. I have Jones just outside Captain consideration because I feel this week is the best chance we’ve got to get unique Allen stacks.

RUNNING BACK

Rhamondre Stevenson $10,400 – Captain or Flex

Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to see prime Christian McCaffrey usage at $2,000 less than that should cost. Without Damien Harris, Stevenson will be in most lineups. He’s worth locking in and making it a five-player slate (or four-player depending on Allen’s roster percentage). If fading Stevenson, be sure to intentionally leverage him. That can be accomplished either by playing one of the Patriots' backup running backs or by pairing Mac Jones with one of his receivers in Bills stacks.

RECEIVER

Jakobi Meyers $7,200 - Flex

The only thing keeping Jakobi Meyers out of Captain consideration is his concerning shoulder injury. In last week’s offensive eruption Meyers played just 29% of the snaps and handled just four targets. This would be a great week to use Meyers as leverage, but he’s challenging to rely on. The hope is that his injury leads to a low roster percentage which would put him in a great spot for usage in large field tournaments.

DeVante Parker $5,600 – Flex

Devante Parker stepped up his snap share with Meyers missing action. He played over 80% of the snaps for the first time since week 7. He caught just four passes but turned them into a respectable 80 yards. Parker is an affordable option in a price range that may go overlooked and has upside if Meyers misses action.

Nelson Agholor $4,800 – Flex

Nelson Agholor had the best game of the bunch with six catches for 65 yards and a touchdown. His touchdown reception came with Meyers still active. I dubbed him an expensive dart throw last week, and he hit the bullseye, but it came with a price hike. At $4,800 he’s still viable as all the Patriots receivers are likely to come with low roster percentages.

Hunter Henry $4,600 – Flex

Hunter Henry finally paid off the week Jonnu Smith was supposed to take over. He caught three passes for 63 yards and a touchdown (although we all know he scored twice). He would’ve been my favorite play to pair with Jones in Bills-heavy lineups, but he will likely be the most popular. I will pay up for Parker to get a lower roster percentage than either Henry or Agholor.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Kendrick Bourne $2,200 – Flex

Kendrick Bourne played nearly 70% of the snaps and was targeted four times. He’s seen similar usage with and without Meyers in the lineup. He’s too cheap for his involvement and could go overlooked with Tyquan Thornton and Shakir cheaper.

Tyquan Thornton $400 – Flex

Tyquan Thornton is a viable punt given his 36% snap share, even without earning a target last week.

Jonnu Smith $1,400 – Flex

Jonnu Smith played a season-low 29% of the snaps last week and earned zero targets. Fortunately, he was given a nearly $2,000 discount. If he gets back to his normal snap share he will be well worth his salary.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here:

Both defenses are viable and should come at low roster percentages with the field expecting this one to go over. If going with a Bills onslaught (Five Bills and one Patriot) then strongly consider the Bills’ defense. Both kickers have been known to carry high roster percentages. They’re plenty viable but I will be looking to play some of the receivers in their price range this week.