Thursday Showdown Week 12

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The New England Patriots are heading to Minnesota to take on the Vikings as 2.5-point underdogs. The game total is set at 42.5. The Patriots tend to keep games under the Vegas total, and sometimes by a wide margin. This game shouldn’t be any different. Both teams had horrendous offensive outings in week 11 but the Vikings are still passing at the league’s sixth-highest rate. The Patriots are passing at the league’s 12th-lowest rate, and we can expect both Rhomandre Stevenson and Damien Harris to be heavily involved. The spread is tight but if either team is going to find offensive success, I expect it to be the Vikings.

INJURY ROUND-UP

• Devante Parker – Knee – Limited

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Dalvin Cook
3. Rhamondre Stevenson
4. Kirk Cousins

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Mac Jones $9,000 – Flex

Mac Jones is averaging over 30 attempts in his last three games and has a fantastic completion percentage. He has not been scoring highly in fantasy because he isn’t throwing touchdowns, and he’s getting sacked at a high rate. Expect both of these issues to continue against the Vikings.

RUNNING BACK

Rhamondre Stevenson $9,600 – Captain or Flex

Rhamondre Stevenson was on a fantasy tear before Damien Harris started slowly creeping his way back into a sizeable workload. Last week Stevenson handled 21 touches to Harris’ 10. Stevenson is an excellent play at cost due to his red zone usage and his receiving upside.

Damien Harris $6,800 – Flex

Damien Harris may have lost his starting job while he was injured but he is still an active member of the offense. He managed to parlay his 10 touches into just under 100 yards from scrimmage. In what may be a low-scoring game, I don’t mind pairing Stevenson with Harris.

RECEIVER

Jakobi Meyers $8,200 - Flex

Jakobi Meyers has maintained one of the league’s highest target shares throughout the season, but it has not translated into exciting fantasy output. Over the past two games, he’s been targeted 12 times, managing 10 receptions for just 94 yards. He’s a bit too expensive, but if you’re stacking Jones, you’ll want to add Meyers.

DeVante Parker $5,200 – Flex

Devante Parker has not been productive since week three. He’s battled both injury and bad quarterback play. He’s questionable for this game but if he suits up there isn’t much to be excited about. He’s an expensive dart throw to include in large field tournaments.

Nelson Agholor $3,400 – Flex

Nelson Agholor only makes the player pool if Parker is inactive. Otherwise, look to the punt options for cheaper darts.

Jonnu Smith $3,200 – Flex

Jonnu Smith has been targeted either 3 or 4 times in most games this season. He’s still playing fewer snaps than Hunter Henry, but he’s surprisingly a larger part of the passing offense. He’s more expensive than we’d like, but since Henry is the same price, we’ll lean Smith.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low roster percentages.

Kendrick Bourne $2,200 – Flex

Kendrick Bourne is playing roughly 40% of the snaps and should see that increase if Parker is inactive. We can expect him to be targeted more often than Agholor for a sizeable discount.

Tyquan Thornton $1,800 – Flex

Tyquan Thornton’s snaps have varied. He was up to 87% involvement before crashing back down to just 27% last week. There have been no reports as to why his involvement dropped. I like taking a shot on Thornton at this salary knowing the Patriots have a way of toying with what we think we know in terms of playing time.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Kirk Cousins $10,200 – Captain or Flex

The entire Vikings offense had a down week against the tough Dallas defense in week 11. They don’t get much of a break for week 12. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Vikings held under their team total, but I still expect most of the offensive production to come from them. In low-scoring games, it is very important to hit on the touchdown scorers. I like playing Cousins at Captain and trying to hit on a couple of his receivers in the flex.

RUNNING BACK

Dalvin Cook $10,000 – Captain or Flex

Dalvin Cooks's rushing usage has been consistent all season which is not something we were confident about coming into the year. His passing game work has been a bit less predictable. Before last week he had three consecutive games over five targets. He’s viable from a raw projections standpoint but stands out if he hits his receiving ceiling.

RECEIVER

Justin Jefferson $11,600 – Captain or Flex

Justin Jefferson has the highest ceiling in the NFL, and his price reflects that. Unfortunately, the field is sharper than in recent years so his roster percentage will not be affected by his down week. He’s going to have the highest roster percentage, but he’s worth playing regardless.

T.J. Hockenson $7,200 – Flex

T.J. Hockenson has at least nine targets in every game since joining the Vikings. Despite his large target share, he’s been inconsequential from a fantasy standpoint. He’s a viable stacking option with Cousins but should carry a higher roster percentage than Adam Thielen.

Adam Thielen $7,000 – Flex

Adam Thielen has taken a bit of a back seat to Hockenson since his arrival. Last week he was targeted just three times, but before that, he was averaging seven targets per game on the year. Theilen is just as viable of a play as Hockenson but will come at a discount in terms of roster percentage.

K.J. Osborn $4,600 – Flex

KJ Osborn’s usage has been a roller coaster. He was targeted 11 times in Week 10 against Buffalo but had not come close to that opportunity at any other time of the year. He’s a strong tournament play as he’s seeing over 70% of the snaps and is priced close to the kickers and defenses, resulting in him going overlooked.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership. Here is where the pre-season DFS column comes in. We have a plethora of players in the punt range who have decent shots to fall into the winning lineup. Here are just a few.

Johnny Mundt $600 – Flex

Johnny Mundt is all but guaranteed at least one target and has a ceiling of three. At just $600, that’s all we can ask for.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

If I have any specific notes on either position, I will add them here:

Both defenses are fine plays, but the Patriots are likely the highest rostered. The best option is to pair whatever team you’ve stacked heavily with their defense; especially if you’re playing five players from the same team.