Sunday Showdown Week 3

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The San Francisco 49ers are heading to Denver to take on the Broncos as 1.5-point favorites. The game total is set at 44. Sunday night sets up well for multiple game environments whether it be a low-scoring grind or a high-scoring shootout. The field is most likely to lean into a slow-paced ground game for both teams, so we will focus on working in the passing offenses. Jimmy Garoppolo is taking over for Trey Lance after he suffered a gruesome ankle injury. Garoppolo’s favorite target in George Kittle is simultaneously making his triumphant return. With the 49ers' injured backfield they have a realistic chance to lean on the passing game for once as they rank 31^st in passing rate. On the other hand, the Broncos may be ironically shifting to a more run-heavy approach over “letting Russ cook”. Both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon are projected to see at least 10 carries.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Trey Lance – Ankle – Season-ending IR

Elijah Mitchell – MCL – Short-term IR

Tyrion Davis-Price – Ankle – Out

Jerry Jeudy – Ribs/Shoulder – Limited Friday

K.J. Hamler – Knee/Hip – Full Friday

Tyrie Cleveland – Hamstring – Did not participate Friday

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Deebo Samuel
2. Jeff Wilson
3. Javonte Williams
4. George Kittle
5. Jimmy Garoppolo

49ERS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Jimmy Garoppolo $9,000 – Captain or Flex

In 2021 under Jimmy Garoppolo the 49ers ranked 29^th in passing rate. Both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle finished in the top-40 in receptions while Samuel finished 5^th in yards. Garoppolo is expected to pass at a modest rate and heavily target two of the league's most efficient pass catchers in Kittle and Samuel. This season Kyle Shanahan has kept Brandon Aiyuk out of the doghouse and given him a near 100% snap share. This muddies the receiving corps for an offense that we project to pass just 29 times, but it is good news for Garoppolo. Even on limited attempts, Garoppolo is a strong option in an offense we’re going to look to stack heavily.

RUNNING BACK

Jeff Wilson Jr. $8,000 – Captain or Flex

Jeff Wilson Jr. is the last man standing for the 49ers backfield. Even as the lead option he managed to play on just 49% of the snaps. Shanahan will get at least two backs involved no matter who his options are, especially while factoring in Samuel. Wilson had 20 touches for 104 total yards. This week’s running back room is even thinner as Tyrion Davis-Price is out. San Francisco signed Marlon Mack this week but expect undrafted free-agent Jordan Mason to carry the bulk of the backup duties. Wilson Jr. is expected to be the primary ball carrier with close to 15 touches on half the snaps. He is priced well and expected to be one of the more rostered players, while we have Kittle and Aiyuk projected similarly with lower salaries and roster percentages.

RECEIVER

Deebo Samuel $11,400 – Captain or Flex

Deebo Samuel is going to be the most rostered player on the slate. With so many injuries in the backfield look to Samuel to handle more than his average total carries. So far this season Samuel has carried the ball 12 times. We have him projected for 5 carries but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that closer to 10. He has the slate’s highest projection by just .2 points over Russell Wilson, but he is $800 more expensive. Samuel has one of the highest ceilings in the league and is a strong play on any slate, but for leverage’s sake, he can be faded in lineups that include Kittle and Aiyuk.

Brandon Aiyuk $7,000 – Flex

While Samuel moves around between designed runs and traditional receiver play it is Brandon Aiyuk handling nearly 100% of the wide receiver snaps. Aiyuk saw eight targets in week two with Garoppolo. Last year was limited due to whatever grudge Shanahan held against him, but in 2020 Aiyuk had a promising rookie campaign with Garoppolo. Expect them to pick up where they left off in week three. Aiyuk is priced just under Wilson and Kittle so he should carry one of the lower roster percentages on the slate with one of the higher ceilings.

George Kittle $7,400 – Captain or Flex

George Kittle is making his regular season debut after working back slowly from a groin injury. Shanahan told reporters that Kittle is “good to go” with no restrictions. Last season Kittle missed games five through seven. When he returned to action, he stepped right back into his full-time role. I tend to trust Shanahan on this one rare occasion and am fine projecting Kittle for a snap share over 70%. Kittle is priced cheaper than he will be the rest of the season because of the potential he would be limited. He is a great play regardless of roster percentage.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Jordan Mason $1,000 – Flex

Jordan Mason is an undrafted rookie who should see the same 39% snap share that Tyrion Davis-Price saw last week. He is an Alfred Morris clone who Shanahan may see the potential for in the future. Tyrion Davis-Price managed 14 carries last week as Wilson’s backup so there isn’t much reason to believe Mason can’t approach similar usage. Marlon Mack is unlikely to play much on his first week with the team, but I make no promises given the way Shanahan has deployed his back. He will be popular, but Mason carries a strong workload for his price.

Jauan Jennings $4,600 – Flex

Jauan Jennings is being relegated to the fourth receiver in Kittle’s return. He is priced so high because of his snap climbing snap share but his opportunity has not matched. After six targets in week one, he saw just two with Garoppolo in week two. He is too expensive to be worth playing outside of being a contrarian in large field tournaments.

BRONCOS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Russell Wilson $10,800 - Flex

Russell Wilson’s omission from the captain pool feels strange, but it has less to do with him and more to do with roster construction. If we play Wilson at Captain, we will be forced to roster multiple Broncos receivers over the preferred 49ers passing options. Across the board, no Denver option is a better value play than their San Francisco counterpart. We’re all in on the 49ers which takes Wilson out of captain consideration.

RUNNING BACK

Javonte Williams $10,000 – Captain or Flex

Javonte Williams finally handled the workload the fantasy football community has been begging for since he was drafted. In week two Williams handled 65% of the running back snaps. He had 15 carries and 4 targets. Williams is one of the most efficient backs in the league so 19 opportunities are more than enough for him to make the optimal lineup, regardless of price.

Melvin Gordon $6,200 – Flex

The last time the Broncos were on a Showdown slate I mentioned we would have a conversation between Williams and Melvin Gordon when DraftKings bumps up his price. That conversation has come sooner rather than later as Gordon is in the $6,000 range and appears to have taken more of a back seat to Williams. Gordon remains a fine pivot off Williams given he still managed 10 opportunities on his 39% snap share, but the gap is closing. Williams and Gordon can be played together as the lone Broncos in a 49ers stack to create leverage off the Denver passing game.

RECEIVER

Courtland Sutton $9,400 - Flex

Courtland Sutton has been touted as Wilson’s favorite receiver all offseason and it is seeming to come to fruition. He has played over 90% of snaps each week and has 18 targets on the season. He managed 122 yards against the Texans last week. The problem with the Broncos' passing offense hasn’t been its ability to move the ball, rather its ability to score. Wilson has thrown for just two touchdowns this season, both of which have gone to reserve players. We have Sutton projected the same as Williams, but if you’re playing one Bronco as a run back to a 49ers stack you’re better off avoiding the Denver passing offense than playing a major key to Wilson’s success.

Sutton is a strong play with one of the better floor and ceiling projections of the slate, but if you’re stacking the 49ers, Williams is the preferred Broncos option.

Jerry Jeudy $8,200 – Flex

Jerry Jeudy has been a limited practice participant throughout the week after taking a hard fall on an attempted catch. He is being projected to play, but his price is a touch high regardless of health. We would’ve liked to see him priced within the same range as Aiyuk and Kittle to make this more of a conversation. Given the 49ers are the preferred stacking option and they have multiple pass catchers projecting better at a lower salary, Jeudy is mostly a situational option to include if stacking Wilson.

K.J. Hamler $5,000 – Flex

K.J. Hamler admitted he wasn’t healthy in week one then proved as much by sitting out in week two. It appears he is going to make a go at week three, but we are not projecting a full workload. There is a strong possibility that Hamler is limited as he works back from injury. Even in large field tournaments, he doesn’t make the player pool.

Albert Okwuegbunam $5,200 – Flex

Albert Okwuegbunam has been largely disappointing after Nathaniel Hackett all but said he would be disappointing all offseason. I did not buy into the narrative that Okwuegbunam needed to play deep into preseason games because he needed the reps. After two weeks I may be singing a different tune. He had five catches on six targets in week one, with one drop. In week two he was targeted twice for no receptions. He played on 53% of the snaps while Eric Saubert caught Wilson’s lone touchdown.

Okwuegbunam feels like a trap. We want to buy in on the talent we believe him to have but the team has been completely transparent about his limited role in the offense. His range of outcomes includes completely flipping snap shares with Saubert in week three. We have Okwuegbunam projected for just 6.9 points so he is not a priority to roster.

UNDER THE RADAR –

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Kendall Hinton $1,200 – Flex

If K.J. Hamler is limited and Tyrie Cleveland is out, then Kendall Hinton would be the primary benefactor. He played on 76% of the snaps in week 3. He would be a quality one-off in 49ers onslaughts.

Eric Saubert $3,200 – Flex

Eric Saubert is too expensive to get excited about his increasing opportunity. He can continue to eat into Okwuegbunam’s snaps, but he should be cheaper. DraftKings may have been a touch early on projecting Saubert’s usage and we’d be better off finding the salary to get to the kickers and defenses in this price range.