Sunday Showdown Week 13

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Indianapolis Colts are heading to Dallas to take on the Cowboys as 10.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 44. The Cowboys are passing at one of the lowest rates in the league, and that is not likely to change as 10.5-point home favorites. It feels good to finally write up Tony Pollard ahead of Ezekiel Elliott, but they are both plenty viable this week. The Colts have been balanced over the past three weeks with Jonathan Taylor getting 20 touches per game while Matt Ryan still averages over 30 pass attempts. Game script doesn’t seem to matter. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeff Saturday had a sticky note stashed away that says “Make sure Taylor gets 20 touches”. We’re paying up for Taylor even as a heavy underdog on the road and stacking the Cowboys.

INJURY ROUND-UP

For the first time this season, we are not expected to miss any players from this game.

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. Jonathan Taylor
2. Dak Prescott
3. CeeDee Lamb
4. Michael Pittman
5. Tony Pollard

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Matt Ryan $9,200 – Flex

Matt Ryan passes at least 30 times a game, but his target distribution has been getting less predictable. The Colts’ pass catchers provide the best opportunity to get unique. We’ve got a small sample size and the Colts have yet to get blown out under Saturday so it would not be outside the realm of possibility for the Colts to pass at an above-average rate. I’m not looking to Ryan at Captain, but he’s a great flex play with one of his receivers in lineups containing four Cowboys.

RUNNING BACK

Jonathan Taylor $10,000 – Captain or Flex

Jonathan Taylor is seemingly locked into at least 20 carries and multiple targets in the new system. He’s failed to crack over 100 yards from scrimmage over the last two weeks which has resulted in his egregious price tag. We’re getting the best back in the NFL averaging over 20 touches at just $10,000, so we’ll take it.

Receiver

Michael Pittman $9,600 – Flex

Michael Pittman was targeted 11 times last week resulting in 7 receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown. He is the only Colts receiver we’re able to comfortably project, and we’re paying for that. Pittman is a strong play paired with Ryan, but if choosing only one I prefer to go with the less popular Colts’ receivers for the roster percentage discounts.

Parris Campbell $5,200 – Flex

Just when Parris Campbell felt like the same play as Pittman, he gets just three targets. He still played over 88% of the snaps and was given a considerable price discount. Campbell is in a good position to bounce back at a cheaper salary and lower roster percentage than last week.

Jelani Woods $4,200 – Flex

Jelani Woods took over as the top tight end even after an ugly drop on a crucial third down. He came right back with a strong 4^th down reception on a similar route. From then on, he caught eight passes and nearly hit the 100-yard-bonus. He is $1,600 cheaper than Dalton Shultz in a similar role.

Alec Pierce $3,800 – Flex

Alec Pierce was my favorite receiver on the last Colts’ slate just in time to catch zero of two targets. He’s demonstrated a respectable ceiling and will come at a low roster percentage. He’s far too cheap for a receiver playing over 70% of the snaps with the talent he has demonstrated.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some paths to success at low ownership.

Kylen Granson $2,800 – Flex

Jelani Woods seems to have taken over as the top option at tight end but Kylen Granson still played 38% of the snaps and was targeted twice.

Ashton Dulin $200 – Flex

Ashton Dulin was one of Ryan’s favorite secondary options to start the season before Dulin was injured and Ryan was benched. They both returned the same week but have yet to rekindle their relationship. Dulin played 34% of the snaps last week which is far more than we could ask for a minimum-salary player.

DALLAS OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Dak Prescott $10,200 – Captain or Flex

Dak Prescott has failed to have one of his signature performances since returning from injury in week seven. He’s thrown for over 200 yards in each game with multiple touchdowns in all but one. It is highly unlikely he doesn’t land in the optimal lineup. The only question is whether he can be the optimal Captain. He would likely need to hit the 300-yard-bonus with multiple passing touchdowns. If playing Prescott at Captain, pair him with at least two receivers and omit at least one of the Dallas's backs.

RUNNING BACK

Tony Pollard $8,200 – Captain or Flex

Over the past three weeks, Tony Pollard has out-touched Ezekiel Elliott in every game, but he is still playing fewer snaps. Both backs are going to receive roughly 15 carries but Pollard has the ability to ceiling to receiver six targets. Pollard has done more with his opportunities, but he will also carry the higher roster percentage of the two.

Ezekiel Elliott $7,800 – Flex

Ezekiel Elliott has not been as exciting to watch as Pollard, but he’s playing more snaps and is still getting nearly 16 opportunities per game. He will come at a roster discount and a price discount. Even with Elliot receiving less passing game work, he makes up for it by getting the first crack at goal-line work.

RECEIVER

CeeDee Lamb $10,800 – Captain or Flex

All of the starting running backs in this game will be popular options, and rightfully so, but that should leave CeeDee Lamb slightly overlooked. His opportunities have been unpredictable, but he’s received at least 10 targets in half of his games played. If Prescott ends up as Captain the lineup will likely include Lamb and vice versa.

Michael Gallup $6,400 – Flex

Michael Gallup has an illness, but he is expected to start against the Colts. His snaps have dipped a bit recently and the sickness may not help his cause. He was targeted eight times last week for five receptions and 63 yards. Gallup makes the player pool but his snaps have already dipped and his illness gives us an excuse to look deeper down the Dallas depth chart for stacking options.

Dalton Schultz $5,800 – Flex

Dalton Schultz has missed a couple of games and has not been quite up to par at times, but he’s averaging nearly six targets per game over the last five games. He’s also playing the majority of the snaps on a team that uses four tight ends. Schultz is the preferred option outside of Lamb for Prescott stacks.

Noah Brown $4,800 – Flex

If Gallup is limited in any way, it is Noah Brown who stands to benefit the most but he’s a bit too expensive given his current usage. Brown played just 45% of the snaps last week. No receiver played increased snaps, rather the Cowboys increased their two tight end usage with Jake Ferguson. Brown could be a unique stacking option with Prescott if last week’s usage was just a result of specific game plan.

UNDER THE RADAR

This section features players who do not project well but have at least some path to success at low ownership.

Jake Ferguson $2,200 – Flex

Dalton Schultz’s usage was safe even with Jake Ferguson playing one of his highest snap shares of the season. It is unclear whether the Cowboys intend to continue their two tight end usage or not but it is far easier to buy into Ferguson at $2,200 than to take the chance on Brown at $4,800.

Kicker and DST

In general, all kickers and DST are viable on any given slate. I tend to avoid either position when they are projected to carry a high roster percentage. In the past, I have avoided kickers in tournament play due to their low ceilings, but this season they’ve been appearing in a significant number of winning lineups as touchdowns have been down. I’ve taken to attempting to be overweight on whichever kicker is projected for the lower roster percentage. I will not roster either position as Captain at any point. It will hit at times, and it will be frustrating, but it’s not predictable enough to soundly advise.

There are enough reasonably priced options on the Colts to warrant playing at least two of their options, but if going with five Cowboys, it’s worth strongly considering their defense. Underdog kickers have been underutilized all season, but with the team total so low for the Colts, I expect Chase McLaughlin to be a bit too popular.