Passing Matchups Week 14

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Matchups

Detroit vs Minnesota

The Lions erupted in Sunday’s trouncing of Jacksonville, with Jared Goff enjoying his best day in at least two months (31 of 41, 340 yards, 2 touchdowns, no turnovers). Goff spent the day playing pitch-and-catch with wideouts Amon-Ra St. Brown (11-114-2) and D.J. Chark (5-98) against an overmatched secondary. Thankfully, their Week 14 docket doesn’t look any tougher. St. Brown has emerged as a matchup-proof slot man anyway; he’s on a four-game tear averaging 9 catches and 108 yards, with 3 touchdowns. He’s a hit in any game script, and he’ll face perhaps the Vikings’ weakest cover man Sunday (Chandon Sullivan). Chark and D’Andre Swift are tougher to project week-to-week, but they certainly enhance Goff’s appeal in what’s become a high-volume, high-scoring attack.

The Vikings simply can’t stop anyone through the air. They’ve allowed six of their last seven opponents to throw for 300+ yards, with five of them actually clearing 330. And that’s a list of passers that includes Teddy Bridgewater (329 and 2 touchdowns in a partial game), Mac Jones (382 and 2 in the game of his career), and Mike White (369 just last Sunday). This is a talented Minnesota defense, so it’s not easy to pinpoint the problems, but they’re there. The biggest culprit is the pricey, star-studded front seven, which boasts Danielle Hunter, ZaDarius Smith, and others despite sitting near the bottom of the league in pressures and sacks. That’s put undue pressure on a banged-up secondary that was already lacking in depth. Cornerback Patrick Peterson has enjoyed a strong bounce-back year and could wind up an All-Pro, but the team definitely misses rising star Cameron Dantzler on the other side. Rookie Akayleb Evans has been lackluster in his place, and fellow rookie Andrew Booth is out for the year. Safety Harrison Smith is still his ball-hawking self over the middle, but he and Peterson are desperate for help. Even so-so offenses like Detroit’s project well in most of their downfield matchups.

Las Vegas at L.A. Rams

The Raiders are hitting their stride at the right time, just like last year. They’ve won three close games in a row, with Derek Carr providing more ups than downs through the air. Carr hasn’t been flawless by any means, but over the past three weeks, he trails only Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes II in yardage. Unsurprisingly, Davante Adams has dominated this attack all year, and rightfully so. He’s drawn 32% of team targets and topped 95 yards in 8 of his 12 games as a Raider. And he’s on a particularly special run right now: over the past 5 weeks, his target share has swelled to 38%, and he’s averaged a line of 8 catches and 133 yards (oh, and 7 touchdowns). Mack Hollins and Hunter Renfrow see plenty of snaps, but they’re mere role players behind the ever-present Adams. He’s as strong a weekly play as any WR1 in fantasy, and his date with the Rams is no longer an imposing one.

The Rams’ once-proud defense has crumbled over the past month, joining the offense in one of the most disastrous post-Super Bowl years ever. A group once led by star power on every level now lacks several of its starters, while most of the survivors look like shells of their late-2021 selves. Aaron Donald has been shut down with just 5.0 sacks, the first of his nine seasons to land below 8.0. He ties linebackers Leonard Floyd and Bobby Wagner for the team lead, illustrating just how bad the team has been at pushing the pocket without blitzing. Jalen Ramsey, one of the league’s best cover men as recently as this season, has looked ordinary (or worse) as the team has fallen apart around him. He and the rest of the patchwork secondary were embarrassed last week by Seattle’s DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who combined to post 17 catches (on 20 targets), 255 yards, and 2 touchdowns. They’ve also struggled badly in recent weeks against Chris Olave (5-102-1) and the Cardinals’ duo of DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore (19-192). Their days as a tough fantasy matchup are over, at least for 2022, and they’ve likely swung right into must-start territory.

Tennessee vs Jacksonville

The Titans don’t boast much firepower, and they’d much rather grind the Jaguars down on Derrick Henry’s legs. But there’s overlooked potential in their air attack, given the generous matchup, Ryan Tannehill’s recent improvement, and his pair of playmaking rookies. One of the week’s most crucial injuries to watch is that of Treylon Burks, who will need to clear the concussion protocol to suit up. Burks hasn’t seen steady volume, but he’s been wildly productive with his targets. He posted 11 catches for 181 yards in Weeks 11 and 12, then turned his only Week 13 target into a 25-yard touchdown before departing. If Burks plays, he’ll likely be moved around the offense to take advantage of the Jaguars’ many secondary holes. If not, impressive tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo could lead the way. Five of his 15 catches have gone for 20+ yards, and he’s drawn 5 targets in each of the last 2 weeks.

The Jaguars defense has bits and pieces to build around, but at the moment, it’s not nearly enough. They still badly lack complementary talent in the secondary, and opponents have had no trouble taking advantage. Their last 4 opponents have averaged 296 yards a game, with three of them throwing multiple touchdowns. There’s a lot to like about the Jacksonville front seven, which has flourished with Josh Allen and No. 1 pick Travon Walker (just 5.5 combined sacks but 20 knockdowns) coming off the edges. But there’s little help behind them to slow receivers as they work their way through the soft zones. Cornerback Tyson Campbell is a rising star on one side, but the team continues to lean on retreads Darious Williams, Chris Claybrooks, and Tevaughn Campbell far too much. None are effective, as the Lions’ Amon-Ra St. Brown (11-114-2) and D.J. Chark (5-98) can attest, and they’re far from the first. Tight ends have also found big success in this matchup, with five different guys producing 9.0+ PPR points over the last five weeks. The Titans don’t boast much big-time receiving talent, but everyone gets a sizeable boost when the Jaguars are in town.

Jacksonville at Tennessee

The Jaguars keep getting encouraging play from second-year passer Trevor Lawrence, even as he’s still ironing out some issues. In fact, Lawrence is only a week removed from the best three-game stretch of his NFL life, one that saw him complete 77% of his throws and average 7.5 yards apiece (272 per game). There are still rough spots, but at least Lawrence now runs an offense with talent at the skill positions. Christian Kirk has been a godsend as a WR1, which isn’t a huge surprise, given his big-play track record in Arizona. He’s not a household name, but he should be: Kirk has commanded a solid 24% target share and topped 70 yards in 7 of his 12 games (with 7 touchdowns). And possession man Zay Jones, buried and forgotten by the rest of the league, has emerged as an occasionally dynamic slot weapon. Two weeks ago, when Lawrence posted a dazzling 29 of 37, 321-yard, 3-touchdown line against the Ravens, it was Jones (11 catches, 145 yards), not Kirk, who led the way. The forgotten man here is tight end Evan Engram; his production has been spotty, but he’s drawn 6+ targets in five of his last eight games.

The Titans' weak spot has been their pass defense all year, so their toughest chunk of schedule (Weeks 9-13) went about as expected. Dates with Patrick Mahomes II, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts netted an average stat line straight out of Madden: 31 of 48 passing for 365 yards, with 1.7 touchdowns a game. There simply isn’t enough proven talent in this unit, with no linchpin to rely on outside. The Titans’ many recent early-round swings in the secondary (Caleb Farley, Kristian Fulton, Roger McCreary, Elijah Molden) have added little on the back end for 2022. McCreary, Fulton, and Molden have at least flashed ability, though all three are wildly inconsistent, and Molden may sit again this Sunday. (As for Farley: he fell out of the rotation early this year before landing on IR.) There’s not much help behind them, either, with even standout safety Kevin Byard slogging through one of his worst NFL seasons. They’ve flailed badly over the past two weeks against A.J. Brown (8 catches, 119 yards, 2 touchdowns), DeVonta Smith (5 for 102 and 1), Tee Higgins (7 for 114 and 1). Only three teams have allowed more 20+ yard pass plays, and only three have given up more touchdowns through the air. Those are all strong fantasy indicators, even with the up-and-down Jaguars next on the docket.