IDP Upgrades and Downgrades: Week 3

This article immediately highlights defensive players whose production was significantly better or worse than normally expected for the prior week of games. Note there is sometimes limited information available when this article is written, but I will try to give everyone an early look at players who are moving up or down in value among IDP circles. When warranted, I'll also call out some players under No Change to explain why the stat lines may be misleading. It isn’t easy to give waiver advice for IDPs since there is such a wide variety of lineups and scoring systems, but hopefully, the information provided can help inform your waiver, trade, and upcoming lineup decisions. I'm also going to try and group edge rushers together with the understanding that classification as a defensive end or linebacker will depend on your league setup/host. If you have any questions about specific players or situations, please email me or reach out via Twitter.

Email: rudnicki@footballguys.com
Twitter: @a_rudnicki

UPGRADES

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN/EDGE RUSHERS

DT DaRon Payne, WAS (2 solos, 2 asst, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 2 QH on 87% of snaps)
Payne is often overshadowed in Washington by players like Chase Young and Jonathan Allen but he’s now posted sacks in consecutive games. While he’s not known as a pass-rusher, he’s off to a good start and played a remarkable 87% of snaps this week after only reaching that level twice in 2021.

DT Shy Tuttle, NO (2 solos, 7 asst, .5 sack, 1 QH, 1 PD on 61% of snaps)
Tuttle stood out this week as he led the Saints in tackles with 9 stops while also combining with David Onyemata on the team’s only sack of Tom Brady. He also had pass breakup at the line of scrimmage. This is probably not a performance that can be replicated for a 29-year old who has been a part-time player the past few years though.

DL DreMont Jones, DEN (4 solos, 2 asst, 2 sacks, 1 TFL, 1 QH, 1 FF on 84% of snaps)
Jones has shown some flashes in the past of being a viable fantasy option but typically hasn’t been able to sustain the elevated production. He’s averaged nearly 90% of the defensive snaps this year so far though and had a strong game this week with 6 tackles and 2 sacks with a forced fumble.

DE Aidan Hutchinson, DET (5 solos, 1 asst, 3 sacks, 2 TFL, 3 QH on 81% of snaps)
Hutchinson showed why he was a high draft pick with a breakout performance this week. He didn’t have the elite athletic profile of Travon Walker but is a more polished player who was expected to make a contribution right away. He’s averaging 86% of the snaps through two weeks and may already be considered a top-12 defensive end.

DE Brian Burns, CAR (4 solos, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 4 QH on 77% of snaps)
Burns has been productive and averaged 8 sacks/year over his first three seasons but it has often felt like there was still some untapped potential, particularly with his work against the run. He’s seeing a similar workload to last season but is going to be relied upon more heavily now that Haason Reddick is in Philadelphia. Through two games, Burns has 12 combined tackles and a pair of sacks and has some intriguing breakout potential at just 24 years of age.

DE Rasheem Green, HOU (3 solos, 2 asst, 1.5 sacks, 1 TFL, 2 QH on 54% of snaps)
Green made his Texans debut this week after sitting out the opener with an injury. He saw a similar workload to Jerry Hughes and Jonathan Greenard, suggesting that it will be difficult to predict which of them to rely on in any given week.

EDGE Trevis Gipson, CHI (2 solos, 2 asst, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 3 QH on 34% of snaps)
Gipson posted seven sacks a year ago and seemed headed for a bigger role following the trade of Khalil Mack this offseason. He’s only averaged 36% of the snaps through two games though, so this type of production is likely not sustainable.

EDGE Boye Mafe, SEA (4 solos, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QH on 30% of snaps)
The rookie second-round pick is seeing a limited workload to start out and has been limited in practice by a shoulder injury. He came up with four solos and the team’s only sack in the game, however, and figures to take on a bigger role over time given the lack of talent this team has on the edge.

EDGE Adetokunbo Ogundeji, ATL (2 solos, 4 asst, 1 sack on 46% of snaps)
Lorenzo Carter is serving as the veteran edge rusher in Atlanta this year but he has been underwhelming thus far while playing more than 80% of the defensive snaps. There could be an opportunity for young players like Ogundeji or rookie Arnold Ebiketi (4 tackles on 52% of snaps) to emerge here.

EDGE Preston Smith, GB (4 solos, 3 asst, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 3 QH on 90% of snaps)
Smith is a known player whose fantasy value is typically stable from year to year but he warrants a mention this week. Coming with seven tackles and two sacks in a game where the Bears offense only generated 37 tackle opportunities and 11 pass attempts is rather impressive.

LINEBACKERS

LB Devin White, TB (7 solos, 4 asst, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QH, 1 PD, 1 FF on 100% of snaps)
White has been an elite fantasy option for most of his brief career and it looks like that trend will continue in 2022. Through two games, he’s already been credited with 19 combined tackles and 3 sacks and is a strong contender to finish as the top scoring IDP overall.

LB Frankie Luvu, CAR (10 solos, 4 TFL, 1 PD on 96% of snaps)
Shaq Thompson remains a solid contributor but his fantasy production has always been rather underwhelming. Luvu has been mostly a reserve throughout his career to this point, but he’s clearly being given a huge role in Carolina now. He was on the field for 96% of the snaps this week and already has 15 solo stops while the more experienced Damien Wilson and Cory Littleton combined for just 15 snaps.

LB Divine Deablo, LV (6 solos, 9 asst on 100% of snaps)
Denzel Perryman sat out this week with an ankle injury, which left Deablo and Jayon Brown to handle the bulk of the linebacker work once again. Deablo is a former safety who now has 22 combined tackles through 2 weeks and Brown isn’t far behind with 17 tackles on 111 combined snaps.

LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, CLE (8 solos, 1 asst, 2 TFL, 1 FF on 77% of snaps)
Although his playing time declined slightly this week, Owusu-Koramoah is clearly the main linebacker with value in Cleveland. He was highly regarded coming out of Notre Dame last year and should emerge as a focal point of the Browns defense after a quiet but promising rookie season.

LB Myles Jack, PIT (5 solos, 8 asst on 87% of snaps)
The former Jaguars linebacker has brought in this offseason to provide some stability in the middle of the Steelers defense. Devin Bush has not lived up to expectations and has played less than 50% of snaps the past two games while Jack has been close to a full-time player.

LB Nicholas Morrow, CHI (7 solos, 4 asst, 1 TFL on 100% of snaps)
Morrow has played every snap this year alongside Roquan Smith and looks like he could wind up as one of the best IDP values this year. This team is expected to struggle on both sides of the ball and the biggest issue they had this week was missed tackles, which tend to keep the defense on the field and inflate their overall numbers.

LB Leighton Vander Esch, DAL (4 solos, 3 asst, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 QH, 1 PD on 90% of snaps)
Vander Esch has struggled with injuries since a great rookie season in 2018 but is off to a great start with 16 tackles and a sack through the first two weeks. Consider him a quality No. 2 linebacker as long as he remains healthy.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

CB Derek Stingley, HOU (8 solos, 2 PD on 94% of snaps)
While the Texans are trying to rebuild their roster, Stingley is one of the main building blocks. The third overall draft pick struggled more this week than last but that often leads to better fantasy numbers for cornerbacks. He will be tested by opposing quarterbacks and should remain a reliable fantasy option as a result.

CB Michael Jackson, SEA (5 solos, 1 asst on 96% of snaps)
Jackson is a journeyman player and first-time starter who had four solo stops a week ago and added 6 more tackles this week. Although he may not offer much upside, he has played almost every snap for Seattle and appears to have a reasonably high floor.

S Marcus Williams, BAL (7 solos, 3 asst, 2 INT, 2 PD on 100% of snaps)
Williams was brought in to try and help prevent big plays in the secondary, but he has been surprisingly productive through two games with 22 tackles and 3 interceptions. The Ravens collapsed against the Dolphins and gave up 6 passing touchdowns in the second half, which suggests that Williams should continue to see plenty of activity going forward.

S Julian Love, NYG (8 solos, 1 sack, 2 TFL, 1 QH on 100% of snaps)
The Giants defense only faced 39 tackle opportunities in this game, so Love was quite efficient in the game. He also came up with a big sack and had two tackles for loss, which is a reassuring stat to see from a safety. The Giants may have the weakest group of linebackers in the league, which should continue to funnel more plays to their safeties and make Love an excellent fantasy option.

S Darrick Forrest, WAS (8 solos, 2 asst on 100% of snaps)
Forrest has now put together two impressive games in a row and warrants an upgrade. There is a chance he could see a reduction in his role soon though as Kamren Curl missed the first two games with a thumb injury and may be close to returning. It seems more likely that Washington coaches will find a way to use both of them, possibly relying more on 3-safety looks that also include Bobby McCain.

S Jaquan Brisker, CHI (7 solos, 3 asst on 100% of snaps)
The Bears defense faced 38 rush attempts and 60 tackle opportunities in this game as the Packers took control with their running game. They struggled with missed tackles, which could lead to a productive rookie season for Brisker who is seeing regular time in the box while Eddie Jackson handles the deep secondary.

S Andre Cisco, JAX (4 solos, 2 asst, 1 INT, 1 PD on 100% of snaps)
The Jaguars had a surprisingly easy win over the Colts this week and their second-year safety wound up leading them in tackles while also adding an interception. With the way the year has started off, the Jaguars may wind up being the best team in this division and an improved pass rush will help players like Cisco make more plays.

DOWNGRADES

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN/EDGE RUSHERS

DT Javon Kinlaw, SF (1 solo, 1 QH on 43% of snaps)
Kinlaw is a talented player and potential breakout candidate this year after he spent most of last year on IR. He is off to a rough start, however, and has just 1 solo tackle through two games and also saw just 43% of the snaps this week after playing 67% a week ago.

DL Leonard Williams, NYG (1 solo, 1 asst on 59% of snaps)
Williams is one of the top interior defensive linemen in the league, but he left the game early this week with a knee injury. Fortunately, the news on Monday was good as they diagnosed it as a sprained MCL and listed him as “day-to-day”.

DL Akiem Hicks, TB (2 solos, 1 asst on 28% of snaps)
Although his best days are well behind him, Hicks can still contribute when healthy. He left the game early this week with a foot injury though, which opened up more playing time for rookie Logan Hall.

DE Jerry Hughes, HOU (1 asst on 54% of snaps)
Hughes came back to Earth this week after a huge Week 1 showing. The return of Rasheem Green led to a lower workload for him but he still played 54% of the snaps. Based on what he’s shown with the Bills in recent years, this is more like what we should expect from him going forward.

DE Marcus Davenport, NO (1 solo, 1 asst, 1 QH on 58% on snaps)
Davenport had an impressive 9-sack season last year in just 13 games and looked poised for a big year. That may still happen but he’s had a slow start with just one solo, three assists, and no sacks while playing 59% of the snaps.

EDGE Jadeveon Clowney, CLE (2 solos, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1 FR on 49% of snaps)
Clowney had a huge play with a strip-sack and fumble recovery in the game this week, but he was forced to leave early with an ankle injury. The Browns have a short week before they play Pittsburgh on Thursday and he has already been ruled out for that game.

EDGE Dominique Robinson, CHI (0 tackles on 31% of snaps)
A week after posting 7 tackles with 1.5 sacks, the rookie was a no-show against the Packers. The game script wasn’t particularly favorable to him but it’s also not surprising that a rookie edge rusher would be inconsistent from week to week.

EDGE Carlos Dunlap, KC (2 solos, 1 asst, 1 QH on 23% of snaps)
While he was productive with 3 tackles on 17 snaps, Dunlap saw a stark drop in workload from 46% in Week 1. While the smaller snap count may allow him to be more efficient, it will also prevent him from becoming a steady contributor.

EDGE Bradley Chubb, DEN (2 QH on 76% of snaps)
After a productive game in Week 1 with six tackles and two sacks, Chubb was nearly shut out this week on 48 snaps despite a favorable matchup against the Texans, who passed the ball 38 times. He has struggled to replicate his rookie season success from 2018 when he recorded 12 sacks but has missed a lot of time to injury.

EDGE Jaelan Phillips, MIA (1 solo on 76% of snaps)
While the Dolphins and their offense had a coming out party on Sunday, the defense still has some work to do. Phillips posted seven sacks over a five-game stretch last year and showed that he can get hot at any moment, but he’s been rather ineffective through two games with two tackles on 73% of snaps.

EDGE Markus Golden, ARI (2 asst, 1 QH on 75% of snaps)
The Cardinals are desperate for pass rush help after losing Chandler Jones in free agency and are relying heavily on Golden to provide pressure up front. While he saw his snap count grow from 40% last week to 75% this week, he wasn’t able to get much pressure on Derek Carr.

LINEBACKERS

LB Logan Wilson, CIN (1 solo, 2 asst on 100% of snaps)
Wilson came into the year with a chance to possibly join the ranks of the best players at his position but he will need to avoid games like this. While he played every snap in the game, he wound up tied for ninth in tackles among all Bengals defenders despite 27 rush attempts from Dallas.

LB Willie Gay Jr, KC (6 solos, 5 asst, 2 TFL, 1 QH, 2 PD on 92% of snaps)
Gay would have been an upgrade this week as he was all over the field on Thursday night and received a 92% workload despite facing a Chargers offense that threw the ball 48 times, which bodes well for his week-to-week reliability. But he was suspended four games without pay on Monday for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy.

LB Jerome Baker, MIA (1 solo, 1 asst on 100% of snaps)
Baker has been a frustratingly inconsistent player throughout his career. He has helped mask some of his underwhelming tackle numbers with his sack totals and contributions as a blitzer, but he was mostly a non-factor this week as he was credited with just two tackles on 46 tackle opportunities as the Ravens averaged 6.2 yards per carry on the ground.

LB Kyle Van Noy, LAC (1 solo, 1 asst, 1 QH, 2 PD on 46% of snaps)
Van Noy came into the year with a path towards a big role in this defense, but he has been limited to part-time work through the first two weeks. This week, we saw Drue Tranquill handle most of the work (84%) among off-ball linebackers while Kenneth Murray (47%) and Van Noy appeared to split time. Looks like he will need an injury to emerge here.

LB Fred Warner, SF (1 solo, 2 asst on 100% of snaps)
Warner is often held back by the fact his defense doesn’t face a lot of snaps each week, and we saw that again this week. He played all 49 snaps, but Seattle’s offense only generated 40 tackle opportunities with 14 rush attempts.

LB Tae Crowder, NYG (2 asst on 83% of snaps)
Crowder moved into the spotlight when the Giants surprisingly cut Blake Martinez in August. While he’s in a great situation and should see plenty of tackle opportunities, he has also shown in the past that he’s not very good and may not be able to take full advantage of them. This week, he was credited with just two assisted tackles despite playing 48 snaps.

DEFENSIVE BACKS

CB Troy Hill, LAR (1 solo on 34% of snaps)
Hill is a solid fantasy option since he figures to draw more targets from quarterbacks who want to avoid Jalen Ramsey. He was picked on last week at times in a loss to the Bills but collected eight tackles with an interception. Unfortunately, he was forced to leave the game early this week with a groin injury that may keep him out for some time. Decobie Durant replaced him in the game but also suffered an injury, leaving the Rams very thin at the position.

CB Denzel Ward, CLE (2 solos on 94% of snaps)
Ward is one of several cornerbacks who are quite good but don’t contribute much from a fantasy perspective. He’s failed to reach 40 solo tackles in each of the past three seasons and usually puts up two or three interceptions a year. Through 2 games this year, he’s also been credited with just 2 solos and 1 assist and there are likely better options available on the waiver wire each week.

CB Donte Jackson, CAR (2 solos, 1 TFL on 52% of snaps)
Jackson has not been able to replicate his rookie season success when he collected 62 solo tackles with 4 interceptions, but he’s proven to be a capable starter. He missed time last year with a groin injury and then appeared to injure his hamstring this week on a deep incompletion, leaving his status for next week in doubt.

CB Patrick Surtain, DEN (2 solos on 40% of snaps)
Surtain came into the year as a popular breakout candidate, but he’s had a slow start. He left the game early this week with a shoulder injury, but initial reports on Monday suggested that he is “day-to-day” and may not have to miss any time.

S Kyle Dugger, NE (1 solo on 32% of snaps)
Dugger is one of the few players on the Patriots defense with star potential. He started to show his potential last year and is set up well for a repeat. Unfortunately, he sat out most of the game this week with a knee injury which led to Adrian Phillips seeing a large jump in his workload from 45% last week to 86% this week.