Cutting Through the Noise, Week 14

Each week in Cutting Through the Noise, we will take an objective look at one of the most polarizing players in Dynasty Fantasy Football as decided by the Footballguys Dynasty Discord. We will use the Footballguys consensus rankings to gauge where the player is currently valued.

J.K. Dobbins

RB33 and Overall No. 94

J.K. Dobbins has been put through the dynasty value blender over the past two seasons. Should we be trading for him today?

In 2017 J.K. Dobbins joined a long list of great Ohio State running backs that most recently included Ezekiel Elliot. On day one, Dobbins was considered the co-starter with Mike Weber, and his role expanded from there. He was able to rush 194 times for 1403 yards as a true freshman in the Big Ten. He added more attempts, touchdowns, receptions, and receiving yards in year two but his rushing yards dipped. Year three is where he made his money.

Dobbins rushed 301 times for 2003 yards. He scored more touchdowns (23) in 2019 than he had the previous two seasons combined (20) as the co-starter. He also added 23 receptions for 247 yards. He finished in the top 3 for the Doak Walker Running back of the year award, in addition to Jonathan Taylor and Chubba Hubbard. He also managed to receive the sixth most Heisman votes. Dobbins entered the Draft with just one major knock: the fact that he was sharing a draft class with some incredible talent at his position.

The 2020 Draft included the aforementioned Taylor and Hubbard, but it also included DAndre Swift, Cam Akers, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, A.J. Dillon, and Antonio Gibson. All of them have had at least some semblance of success since entering the league. Dobbins was drafted 55th overall by the Baltimore Ravens. He was the fifth running back selected.

In year one, he started just 1-of-15 games played but still managed to produce 805 rushing yards on 134 carries. He added 18 receptions for 120 yards as the backup to Mark Ingram. Just like his second year at Ohio State, Dobbins took over in year two. Unfortunately, his promising young career took a turn for the worst when he suffered an ACL tear in week four.

He returned in 2022 for just four games before experiencing yet another setback. His knee repair didn’t go exactly as planned, which resulted in the need for yet another surgery. He may be back by the end of the season, especially if the Ravens make a playoff run, but his level of production at any point going forward is unknown.

The Good

In J.K. Dobbins’ limited NFL action, he’s looked every bit the part of an incredibly talented prospect who should carve out a productive role in the NFL. As a rookie, Dobbins was fourth in yards after contact per attempt amongst backs with at least 100 carries. He rushed for the second-most yards amongst rookie backs despite having the 7^th most carries of the group. He even added a bit of value in the passing game, although the Ravens aren’t known for passing to their running backs.

Dobbins missed the first three weeks of 2022, but in games three through six, he was back to averaging a respectable 1.8 yards after contact. When considering his two relatively healthy games, four and five, that jumps to 2.1 yards after contact. Over those two games, he was just starting to ramp up his workload, averaging nearly 50% of the snaps. He carried the ball 21 times for 85 yards and a touchdown. He also caught four passes for 22 yards and another touchdown. It is not likely we saw the best from Dobbins before reinjury, but they are valuable games to consider when considering whether to trade for him.

The Bad

This segment is better suited for Footballguys’ Dr. Jene Bramel, but I’ll throw my lab coat on for the sake of the article. After all, the only real knock we have for Dobbins (which is a huge one) is his health.

In college, Dobbins was injury free. He played three straight seasons of 14 games and didn’t miss one. Beyond that, it appears he broke his foot in his senior year of high school, but that would’ve been irrelevant to his 2021 ACL tear. For technicality’s sake, he did sustain a high ankle sprain in his 2019 bowl game, but it led to no missed time, as it was his final game. The important point is that aside from suffering an unfortunately common ACL tear, Dobbins has not been “injury prone.”

Dobbins tore only his ACL and sustained no MCL or PCL damage. From that perspective, his recovery should’ve been routine and ended as just a blip on his NFL resume. After Dobbins was limited in his week six action, John Harbaugh claimed Dobbins’ surgically repaired knee “tightened up.” According to a Week 8 article by Dr. Jene Bramel, “Dobbins chose to have scar tissue from his reconstructive surgery addressed last week after continued stiffness limited him in Week 6.” The original timetable called for a potential Week 12 return. We are now into Week 14, and Dobbins has been looking good in practice but is not yet scheduled to return.

If Dobbins was healthy, he would likely find himself as the third most valuable back from the talented 2020 class, behind Taylor and Swift. The reason for his ranking just barely inside the top 100 has everything to do with the uncertainty surrounding his knee injury.

Conclusion

We play in a fantasy football format that spans years and sometimes decades (if we’re lucky), yet we constantly allow ourselves as a community to become prisoners of the moment. Every week we see dramatic shifts in ranking based on the performance of the previous game, even though we are attached to these players over the entirety of their careers should they remain on our rosters. In the case of J.K. Dobbins and many others like him, we would be doing ourselves a favor to take an objective step back.

Injuries are an unfortunate part of the game we love, and they are especially worrisome at running back. Labeling someone “injury prone” for a lacerated kidney is a bit out of control, but a reoccurring knee injury for the league’s most physically punished position is a fair concern. While the 2022 setback may seem like a damning turn of events for Dobbins’ career, it looks relatively routine. The surgeon tried to keep Dobbin’s meniscus intact, and it didn’t work. They cleaned up the scar tissue, and Dobbins is expected to make a full recovery.

To that end, his current ranking may be a bit of an overreaction. After all, we have seen countless successful running back careers following a clean ACL tear. He won’t be 24 until December 17 and will only have had 169 NFL carries worth of wear.

Targeting J.K. Dobbins in trades in the coming weeks would be a risk worth taking. His value has reached a point where his upside outweighs his injury concerns. Especially since the downside seems far less likely than his ranking suggests. Javonte Williams is a reasonable trade target, but if I wanted to go after that archetype in the off-season, I would much prefer to trade less for Dobbins, who is a year ahead of Williams in his recovery.