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Sunday MORNING UPDATE:
Sunday Morning Update #1 9:30 AM EST
Big update this morning
There's been an interesting shift over the last 24 hours or so that leads to indicate that several people are higher on Teddy Bridgewater than I originally was going up against this New England defense. His prop number has increased almost 15 yards since about 3PM yesterday afternoon, and his projections across the board continue to go up leading me to believe he will surpass Jared Goff as the most popular cash game play this week. Originally Bridgewater was mostly just glossed over simply based on the matchup of Brady and Goff, but Bridgewater provides a nice salary relief even off of those already cheap players. You aren't getting the upside that you would otherwise get from Goff and Brady, but what you get at nearly minimum price is a player with a respectable floor in a good offense in a must-win game.
What this lineup essentially is doing is putting a heavy dependency on Travis Kelce outscoring Evan Engram as you're giving up the upside of Garrett Wilson downgrading him to a player such as Allen Lazard.
Note: This lineup is taking a chance that Christian Watson will be less than 100%. It seems as even if he is active, he will be less than 100% and likely be limited. Lazard is a fine play with Watson as he is still on the field for 90%+ snaps in a positive matchup against the Vikings. If Watson misses this game, he is a top value play on this slate.
Primary Cash LIneup
- QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIA, $6,100
- RB Ken Walker, SEA, $6,700
- RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, $6,700
- WR Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,200
- WR Allen Lazard, GB, $6,200
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA $6,000
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,300
- Flex RB Brian Robinson Jr, WAS, $6,900
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,900
SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.
- Detroit (vs Chi) – 29.25 points
- Kansas City (vs DEN) – 28.75 points
- San Francisco (at LV) – 25.75 points
- Green Bay (vs MIN) – 25.25 points
Week 16 Recap
Week 16 was a tough one, which we sort of knew going into it as the strategy section was labeled as “bad cash week”. It was all around a bit of a mess and one that I feared throughout the week. So much of a mess as accidentally putting Terry McLaurin in the Primary Cash Lineup only to pull him out and correct it by putting JuJu Smith-Schuster into the lineup. The lineup would have cashed had it received the extra 11.1 FanDuel points from McLaurin.
Total points scored- 115.2 points
- QB Gardner Minshew, PHI, $6,100- 24.7
- RB Christian McCaffrey, SF, $9,400- 12.8
- RB Derrick Henry, TEN, $9,800- 17.6
- WR, Richie James, NYG, $5,200- 13.0
- WR Marquise Goodwin, SEA, $5,800- 0
- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC, $7,300- 4.2
TE TJ Hockenson, MIN, $6,000- 29.4 - Flex RB Isiah Pacheco, KC, $6,700- 9.5
- TD Carolina, $3,500- 4.0
What went right:
- TJ Hockenson was one of the bright spots for the primary cash lineup this past week as he had a breakout 13 reception 109 yards and 2 touchdowns. At 42% rostered he was a critical component to being competitive this week.
- Gardner Minshew was the right play at quarterback this week, as he put up 24.7 points at just $6,100. He was 67% rostered however, which really didn’t gain much of an advantage on the field.
What went wrong:
- Choosing Christian McCaffrey over Justin Jefferson was the killer. McCaffrey had just 58 yards, and while he scored a touchdown to take a player who is $9,400 you really need 100+ yards and at least one touchdown. Meanwhile Jefferson ended up with 25.3 points.
- Marquise Goodwin was injured throughout the game and ended the game with zero points.
- The Panthers defense disappointed with just 4 points this past week. They played well for 2.5 quarters, and then the Lions added some late garbage time points that ended up hurting the Panthers who lost Jaycee Horn during the game.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Colt McCoy will miss this week with a concussion. The Cardinals are going to start David Blough who has not made a start since 2019. Blough was hit or miss in his four games as a starter, but
- Teddy Bridgewater will start for the Dolphins this week as Tua Tagovailoa will miss this week with a concussion. Bridgewater is just $6,100 which makes him intriguing in a must win game for the Dolphins this week.
- Mike White will once again start for the Jets at quarterback as he returns from a rib injury. The issue for White is that he is priced up at $7k and the matchup is just a mediocre one against the Seahawks this week. However, this should greatly help the wide receivers in New York such as Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore.
- Antonio Gibson will miss this week with a foot injury. This should solidify the backfield to be led by Brian Robinson Jr this week. Robinson has 20 or more touches in two of his last three games and should be a strong cash game play.
- Lamar Jackson will miss this week with a knee injury and Tyler Huntley will once again start for the Ravens. Huntley has struggled passing filling in for Jackson and is not a cash game play this week.
Cash Game Strategy- Week 17- Uncertainty With Motivation
Motivation is going to be the X factor this week that is going to make this a tricky week as we head into the final weeks of the season. This is where we all have to play part time psychologist to try to project who might be motivated, and what coaches may do at the end of this season.
Moderate Concern:
- Christian McCaffrey is a difficult one to project. On one hand, he’s the clear cut best running back on this slate, but we saw last week where the 49ers just don’t need to give him the 20+ touches that make him so value when he is one of the best fantasy players in football. The 49ers are mostly locked in at the 3 seed unless Minnesota were to collapse, so it seems unlikely that McCaffrey will get the full compliment of touches this week as the team will need a fresh McCaffrey in order to compete in the playoffs.
- Travis Etienne is a concern this week, as while Doug Pederson is saying all the right things, he’s rested players before in meaningless games. The Jaguars have a “win and get in” game next week against the Titans, so while Etienne is not going to be rested, he’s probably not going to see a full compliment of snaps either.
Teams to Target Against
- This Arizona Cardinals team seems to be a team that is just a lost cause. They’re on to their fourth starting quarterback this season, D’Andre Hopkins is not going to play this week, and Kliff Kingsbury is all but fired. Arizona allowed 215 yards to opposing running backs last week, which should bode well for the Arizona rushing attack.
- Denver is a tricky one as whenever a coach gets fired, it really can go one of two ways as the team can rally amongst each other, or they can just shut it down and coast through the rest of the season. Denver was thoroughly embarrassed last week giving up 51 points to a bad Los Angeles Rams team.
- Cleveland is an interesting one as there are rumblings that Myles Garrett isn’t happy with the coaching staff and was benched to start the game last week, there are rumors of significant changes coming in the offseason, and Greg Newsome has come out and spoken about defensive coordinator Joe Woods. This is a team that needs a complete leadership overhaul after a tumultuous season and if they were to struggle after being eliminated from the playoffs it would likely not be surprising
Player Chart
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Quarterback
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| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Tom Brady | 17.3 | $7,000 | Tom Brady has averaged 307 yards passing per game at home and is taking on a Panthers defense that just allowed 355 yards and 3 touchdowns to Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. The Panthers lost their best corner in Jaycee Horn which should open up opportunities for both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. If you're looking for a quarterback to throw for 300+ yards, Brady could very easily top this mark in a must-win game for the Buccaneers. Brady threw for 290 yards in their first matchup earlier this season. This is entirely a gut feeling that based off of Brady's home average, with the Panthers not having Jaycee Horn, and trusting the Buccaneers in a playoff situation based on Brady's history that he will have a big game this week. |
| 2 | Jared Goff | 17.4 | $7,400 | FanDuel has had strong pricing all season, but this week they simply dropped the ball on a few players this week. Goff has thrown for 330 yards or more in three of his last four games and this week is taking on a Bears defense that has allowed 24 or more FanDuel points in three of their last four games. The one case against Goff is that the Bears have struggled mightily at stopping the run and now have lost their best linebacker in Jack Sanborn. This could very easily turn into a run-heavy approach for Detroit if the Bears are unable to put together a strong offense to force the Lions to throw. However, based on the price, Goff could be 50%+ rostered and going with the field and trying to win at other places is not a bad strategy. |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes II | 23.9 | $9,000 | It's difficult to know where the Broncos are currently at this season, as with the firing of Nathaniel Hackett, this is a team that could rebound or they could continue the poor effort from last week. The Broncos were thoroughly embarassed on Christmas Day allowing 51 points to the LA Rams who prior to that game were another team that was struggling offensively. Patrick Mahomes II is coming off of his worst statistical performance of the season throwing for just 224 yards. Mahomes should be in an opportunity to bounceback this week and have another performance similar to what we saw just three weeks ago in which he torched this Broncos defense throwing for 352 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mahomes has also asserted himself in the red zone as of late as he has rushing touchdowns in three of his last four games. |
| 4 | Justin Fields | 20.3 | $8,400 | Justin Fields is an intriguing player this week, as the offensive coordinator has come out and said they will not change anything heading into these last two games as they are looking to continue to develop and grow as a team heading into this offseason and get an opportunity to play against two very good teams in Detroit and Minnesota. There was some concern heading into this game that Fields would dial back the rushing as he had just 11 yards rushing last week against the Bills, but that appears to be a one off performance based on the coaching staffs comments. Fields has a revenge narrative coming into this game, as he threw a critical interception that was returned for a touchdown to his former college teammate Jeff Okudah, who Fields is almost certainly hearing about that heading into this game. Look for the Bears to come out and play competitive against a Lions defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and a team that Fields ran for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns earlier this year. |
| Running Back | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Ken Walker | 13.7 | $6,700 | Walker's price doesn't make a lot of sense this week. At just $6,700, he's a running back who is coming off of a 26 carry performance last week against the Chiefs, and has been a top 12 running back this season since Week 6 when he took over the starting role in Seattle. Pete Carroll came out and said that he should have fresh legs for this game despite having the 26 carries last game. The only thing holding Walker back this week is the matchup as the Jets do boast a top-10 run defense and have allowed just four running backs to top 15 FanDuel points this week. Walker has also caught 6 passes over his last two games only adding to his value after some early season concerns on his ability to catch the ball. |
| 2 | Brian Robinson Jr | 13.1 | $6,900 | Brian Robinson Jr is an intriguing case this week with Antonio Gibson as he's a player who already has seen his volume stabilize as he's had 20 carries in two of his last three games with the only game he failed to do so one in which the Commanders fell behind early and the game script got away from them forcing a pass heavy approach. The Commanders are favored this week against a Cleveland team that has nothing to play for after last weeks loss at home to New Orleans and this has been a team that has struggled all season against the run as their linebacker play is some of the worst in the NFL and has only gotten worse due to the Browns being without their top four linebackers due to injuries throughout the season. |
| 3 | Travis Etienne | 15.6 | $7,700 | Travis Etienne would be the clearcut top running back on this slate if we knew for certain that Jacksonville was not going to rest starters. While Doug Pederson has come out and stated that he will "Never, ever, ever, ever rest starters. You play to win every game. The only way I rest players is if they’re hurt and can’t go" but just two seasons ago Doug Pederson tanked in 2020 when he was with the Eagles that allowed them to get the draft pick that selected Devonta Smith. What he also doesn't touch on here is that if his team gets up earlier, does he pull starters early in this game. Etienne is in a fantastic matchup this week against Houston who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and the price is fair at $7,700, but the slight doubt does cause a bit of worry as you're scrolling over to click his name. |
| 4 | Tyler Allgeier | 11.4 | $6,700 | At $6,700, Allgeier is a volume running back who has seen an average of 20 touches over the last two weeks. Allgeier has performed admirably rushing for 139 yards and a touchdown against New Orleans and 74 yards. This week, the Falcons get the Cardinals who are averaging allowing 214.5 yards to opposing running backs over the last two weeks as this is a team that can't wait to get to the offseason. Expect the Falcons to continue to see what they have in Allgeier over the next two weeks which should help them determine their 2023 plans. |
| 5 | Miles Sanders | 14.6 | $6,800 | Sanders is a player who is underpriced this week compared to his recent production. At $6,800 you're getting a player who is coming off of a 21 carry week last week. The problem with Sanders has been consistency with volume as he has yo-yo'd a bit with 21 carries, 11, 17, 10, 21 over the last five games. There's really not a rhyme or reason from a game script perspective on when this can occur as he's had some of his biggest volume games in a loss, a close win, and a blowout win. The only thing that could be drawn from his game logs is that when he is having success they play the hot hand rather than a game script and keep going back to him. This is a bit of a cash game nightmare to be honest, as we ideally want predictability when selecting players. The Saints run defense has been susceptible as of late allowing 188 yards to Atlanta and 127 yards to Cleveland over the last two weeks. |
| Wide Receiver | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Tyler Lockett | 11 | $6,000 | This is just a bad salary by FanDuel. To get a player like Tyler Lockett at $6k. Prior to getting injured, Lockett had 60 yards and/or a touchdown in 7 straight games. The matchup is a difficult one, but Lockett should be around 7k instead of the 6k price he's listed at. Even if Lockett wasn't on your radar, he's someone you need to look strongly at this week. The only concern here is that Lockett is dealing with a broken bone in his hand which he had surgery for. This is a scenario where all the reports are that he has looked perfectly normal in practice this week, so unless that is not true he should be a great play. |
| 2 | Justin Jefferson | 17.8 | $9,200 | With the lack of top options this week, Justin Jefferson stands alone as the top wide receiver this week. Jefferson has 11 or more receptions in each of his last three games and has scored a touchdown in six of his last eight games. To get a player who has the upside as Jefferson who has already shredded the Packers this season as he had 9 receptions for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns. While corner Jaire Alexander called this game a fluke this week, this is the second time over the last three games against the Packers that Jefferson has over 165 yards and 2 touchdowns in a game as Jefferson had 169/2 last season. |
| 3 | Garrett Wilson | 12.6 | $7,300 | With Mike White back starting in New York, Garrett Wilson needs to be strongly considered this week. With White at quarterback, Wilson has 75 yards or more while scoring two touchdowns. The matchup is a difficult one as he Seahawks have been great against opposing wide receivers as of late. Mostly led by Tariq Woolen's tremendous rookie season, the Seahawks have not allowed an opposing receiver to top 50 yards since Week 12, and have not allowed a 100 yard receiver since Week 1. |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 14.6 | $8,200 | St. Brown is going to be popular this week going up against the Bears as he makes for a perfect stacking partner for Jared Goff. The issue with St. Brown is the price. At $8,200, he is a player who has not topped 76 yards in each of his last three games despite Jared Goff topping 300 yards in two of those three games. St. Brown has scored a touchdown and topped 100-yards in four total games with three of those overlapping. At $8,200, he just does not have the safety that one would hope for at a high roster percentage. This is going to be one of the critical decisions you're going to need to make whether you're comfortable fading St. Brown or just going with the crowd and trying to differentiate elsewhere. My recommendation is to fade St. Brown as the $1,100 to move up to a Jefferson is not all that punitive this week. |
| 5 | Allen Lazard | 10.7 | $6,200 | With Christian Watson looking like he is going to miss this week. Allen Lazard is going to be looked to for the Packers to compete in this game. Lazard has had a disappointing season, but has topped 60 yards in two of his last three games, and is facing a defense that allowed Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins, and Darius Slayton to all top 75 yards last week. This is one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, and Lazard should be able to take advantage of this. If Watson does play, Lazard is not playable on this slate. |
| 6 | Chris Godwin | 12.4 | $7,600 | Godwin is an intriguing play this week and one of the top plays in the mid 7k range. Getting exposure to this game in some fashion is something that could be a good idea based on this being a playoff type game with both teams battling for the division title. The Panthers will be without their top corner in Jaycee Horn, and we saw last week the impact that had when he went down as the Lions threw for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns against this Panthers defense. Tom Brady is averaging 307 yards passing at home, and Godwin has been his top target this season. Godwin has also alleviated some of the touchdown concerns that plagued him earlier this season as he has a touchdown in three of his last six games. |
| 7 | Isaiah Hodgins | 8.3 | $6,200 | Isaiah Hodgins has come out of relatively nowhere to being the top target from Daniel Jones last week. Hodgins saw 12 targets last week in the Giants loss to Minnesota, as the 6'4'' wide receiver was able to catch 8 of those passes for 89 yards and a touchdown. At $6,200 this week, Hodgins gets to face a Colts defense that has struggled against wide receivers as of late after a great start to the season. Over the last two weeks, the Colts have allowed three wide receivers to top 100 yards and one has to wonder just how motivated the Colts team is given the disappointing season that they've had. The only worry is if the Colts start to shadow Stefon Gilmore who has been their best corner on Hodgins, but they didn't do it with Justin Jefferson two weeks ago and have not done it this season, which should indicate that the Giants should be able to get Hodgins into favorable opportunities this week. |
| Tight End | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Evan Engram | 8.7 | $5,800 | Over the last three weeks, Evan Engram has topped 100 yards twice, which the only other tight end to do so is Travis Kelce. What is even more impressive is the volume that Engram has seen as he has 26 receptions over his last three weeks which leads all tight ends as the next closest is TJ Hockenson with just 22 receptions. At $5,800 to get a tight end who is leading the NFL in yards, receptions, and fantasy points by a wide margin is another misprice that you should not even think twice about. He's the lock of the week at the tight end position. |
| 2 | Travis Kelce | 16.5 | $8,300 | Since Kelce had his 3 touchdown game back in Week 11, he's been somewhat mediocre as he has scored the 6th most FanDuel points from Week 12 through Week 16. A big reason for that is he has just one touchdown during that time, but he also is averaging just 5.6 receptions per game. The volume has picked up as of late as he has 16 receptions over his last two games. Kelce has not scored a touchdown in his last four games and has just two red zone targets over the four games. The last time Kelce did not have a touchdown in 5 straight games would be back in 2019, which the team has to be aware of and will try to get him open in the red zone this week. |
| Team Defense | ||||
| Rank | Player | FBG Projection | Salary | Comment |
| 1 | Atlanta | 10.6 | $3,900 | Arizona has largely mailed this season in. They are starting their fourth quarterback this season in David Blough, DeAndre Hopkins is out, and they're a team that has lost five games in a row heading into this one. David Blough has a reputation of a bit of a gunslinger as he has thrown 7 career interceptions in five starts throughout his career while being sacked 15 times during that time. Now all of those starts were in his rookie season, so there is a certainly improvement to be made, but having limited options to throw to, should make for opportunities for the Falcons defense this week. |
| 2 | San Francisco | 10.4 | $5,000 | If you're able to find a way to pay up for San Francisco this week, they could be worth the cost as the 49ers are taking on Jarrett Stidham for the Raiders which the league's best defense should be able to feast on this matchup this week. Stidham in limited playing time throughout his career has thrown just two touchdowns to four interceptions and has just a 52% completion percentage. With the team in talent evaluation mode, they will look towards Stidham to see if he's worth keeping on the roster in the future. |
Lineups
SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 116.3)
As much as I want to go with Tom Brady at quarterback, going with Jared Goff is the smart move here this week.
- QB Jared Goff, DET, $7,400
- RB Ken Walker, SEA, $6,700
- RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, $6,700
- WR, Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,200
- WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, $7,300
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA $6,000
- TE Evan Engram, JAX, $5,800
- Flex RB Brian Robinson Jr, WAS, $6,900
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,900
SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 116.0)
A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.
- QB Tom Brady, TB, $7,200
- RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,800
- RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, $6,700
- WR, Justin Jefferson, MIN, $9,200
- WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,600
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA $6,000
- TE David Njoku, CLE $5,600
- Flex RB Brian Robinson Jr, WAS, $6,900
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,900
SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 117.5)
- QB Tom Brady, TB, $7,200
- RB Miles Sanders, PHI, $6,800
- RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, $6,700
- WR, Allen Lazard, $6,200
- WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,600
- WR Tyler Lockett, SEA $6,000
- TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,300
- Flex RB Brian Robinson Jr, WAS, $6,900
- TD Atlanta Falcons, $3,900