Sleepers are my joint. It's a by-product of studying tape in as much depth as I do. But the term "Sleeper" isn't just the unknown or lesser-known name. There are mid-range sleepers — the player whose potential value should be far higher than the current perception.
Peyton Manning's second year with the Broncos was a perfect example. I'm betting on Tom Brady making a run at this record-breaking season this year, and if you've been reading this column regularly, I've been touting this pick and stacking of Buccaneers receivers as much as I can.
I'll be doing more of that here, but I'll also be sharing my picks of players you can pick ahead of the curve of the label-givers.
As I told readers before the 2019 season in that rendition of this piece, "Mahomes is more mature than most portray him...If you want a great fantasy season, you can't write off stacking the Chiefs' offense because it's too risky...Believe in greatness before the label-givers do their job. They're always the last to recognize it.
This was also true of my recommendations of Lamar Jackson, Nick Chubb, A.J. Brown, and Justin Jefferson before each broke out — against the grain of the consensus thought in terms of talent, scheme fit, and upside.
As I said, sleepers are my joint. We all have our share of misses, but there's a reason I'm still writing these columns after all these years, selling draft publications, and doing podcasts — and it's not my sparkling personality.
Most of the players on this list will be drafted, but some will be on the waiver wire for the first 3-5 weeks of the season due to injury or a reserve role on the depth chart. As a proponent of making preseason waiver lists of players to monitor, the more you know about players before they earn an opportunity to emerge, the more time you can devote to creating a worthwhile plan to acquire them when they earn that shot.
Here's my list of sleepers for the 2021 All-Gut Check Fantasy Team: A squad of underrated and lesser-known options who may have your competition laughing now but congratulating you later. I'll have some obvious ones, but everyone and their dog is writing about players like A.J. Dillon, an excellent player who could deliver this year's Larry Johnson to Aaron Jones' Priest Holmes if injuries strike.
If you can get the likes of Dillon and players mentioned at the likes of BigSite.com, I'm not stopping you. I'd rather focus on sleepers based on failings of the herd mentality rather than depth chart obstacles.
Tom Brady
YES! Tom Brady is slept on. He's underrated. I find it unbelievable.
We're in mid-August, and Tom Brady is still barely drafted among the top-10 quarterbacks in 2021 fantasy leagues. He has the best receiving corps in the league, a quality tight end, a new (and better) James White-level scatback, and last year he threw 40 touchdowns on a bum knee, with limited knowledge of the offense and several pivotal teammates playing through difficult injuries.
If this were Justin Hebert, fantasy drafters would be taking Herbert as a top-three option. But the herd mentality of fantasy football thinks Brady and his cohorts are too old to count on as top producers. Brady is a steal at his current value. His baseline is 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns, but most see it as his ceiling.
This is his floor!
Tampa Bay will incorporate more pre-snap shifts and quick post-snap adjustments now that Brady and his teammates had the time to develop the necessary rapport for these details. These on-field adjustments that were largely missing will result in not only big-play mismatches but also quick chain-moving plays that put the offense in optimal down-and-distance situations. The Buccaneers were in a lot more long down-and-distance situations that limited the range of the playbook than what you'll see this year.
Expect higher red-zone efficiencies, fewer third downs, more big plays, and more time on the field. This should translate to gains in yardage, completion percentage, and touchdowns.
If drafted together, Tom Brady and his receivers may not just help win your league but also dominate it. Brady's ceiling this year is NFL records, and if you follow this column regularly, you don't see me claiming this, ever.
Trey Sermon
I've been touting Trey Sermons's talents for over a year. And as one of the few draft analysts that had him atop my running-back list this year, I was ecstatic to see him land in San Francisco. The 49ers have one of the best run games in the league, thanks to the offensive line that executes a diverse number of plays at a high level.
San Francisco also runs plays that are difficult for opposing coaches and players to diagnose, leading to big plays. I know of a prominent national beat writer with a strong X-and-Os background who was intentionally led astray by Kyle Jusczyck about the design of a running play so opponents wouldn't pick up on what they were actually doing.
The play disguises the actual blocking scheme, so it looks like one style of run blocking when it's actually another. If the defense knew what the play design was, it would significantly change how the unit would play it. You can only tell the difference with one key block inside, and it's a small detail that is hard to discern.
This is something former RSP writer, J Moyer, knew because of his decade-plus work as a running game football coach and deep study of this specific type of blocking that not all coaches have experience with. It was also verified by former NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz and Smart Football's Chris Brown, which countered what Jusczyck told the writer.
Misleading writers to keep a play viable isn't uncommon for players to do with the media. However, the real point of this story is that there are many details with the 49ers' ground game and Kyle Shanahan's offensive scheme that make a rookie's acclimation difficult. Sermon has proven a quick study, according to running backs coach Bobby Turner.
“He’s absorbing it all. I’m waiting for preseason, for the games, but right now, his head is not spinning. He’s comfortable. He’s a sharp young man. He’s what we thought. It may be different on Saturday when we get in those preseason games, just because of the extra pressure, but it’s not like he hasn’t been in big-time games (at Oklahoma and Ohio State) before.”
Sermon performed competently during his first preseason game and continues to split first-team reps with Raheem Mostert. According to Niners Nation, Sermon has earned the most first-team reps of any back on the roster other than Mostert, and he's showing off his contact balance and hands.
Niners Nation sees Sermon as the Devonta Freeman to Mostert's Tevin Coleman. This projection of roles makes a lot of sense this year and moving forward when Mostert's contract expires and speedster Elijah Mitchell has a year to acclimate to the system. If this projection of roles becomes reality, fantasy managers are drafting the complement, Mostert,10-15 spots ahead of the lead back, Sermon.
However, you're going to hear that Sermon will be the 1B to Mostert's 1A. This may appear due to experience, but Mostert is at his best with toss and gap plays, whereas Sermon excels inside and as a zone runner. Don't be surprised if Mostert is the Coleman 1B who gets high-impact touches, but the chain-moving back is Sermon.
Considering that the backs between picks 75-105 are mostly veterans in a timeshare where the roles haven't been fully determined or a talented rookie is biting their heels, Sermon is the most appealing option on the board. I liken Sermon's style of play to a LeVeon Bell's peak years. If the Freeman/Coleman dynamic comes true, Sermon could easily be a top-10 fantasy back this year if Mostert gets hurt and still a strong candidate for top-15 production if the Freeman/Coleman dynamic comes true.
Giovani Bernard
Seeking a late-round value with RB1 upside in PPR leagues that isn't getting drafted among the first 50 backs in fantasy leagues? Look no further than Bernard. I provide the Buccaneers coverage for our excellent training camp reports, and it's becoming apparent to the media that the Buccaneers are thrilled with their offseason addition of Bernard.
Bernard is one of the best scatbacks in the NFL because of his smart inside running, stellar pass protection, and excellent routes and hand. The Bengals wanted to be a big-back team, and their effort to optimize Bernard's talents within its scheme were infrequent, at best. Based on Jon Ledyard's excellent work at The Pewter Report, the Buccaneers are on a correction course during the final frame of Benard's career.
According to Ledyard, the only player who has caught more touchdowns in practice than Antonio Brown has been Bernard. And Bernard is the back with the most red-zone reps on the team because of his versatility as a runner and his ability to run routes from the backfield and as a detached receiver. As camp unfolds, the Buccaneers are splitting Bernard away from the backfield with increasing frequency.
Most fantasy players don't consider the value of route running and pre-snap adjustments. The current standard for evaluating running backs in PPR is receptions — volume and a display of athletic ability doing so. It often leads to analysis where there's considerable excitement over backs who display skill for contested catches on vertical routes.
While impressive, the most important part of the receiving game for a running back in an offense that Tom Brady runs is the player's ability to see the same things Brady sees pre-snap and make the correct adjustment. This requires an assignment-sound player with his role who can adjust on the fly without overthinking and making unforced errors that come from remembering (conscious recall) rather than knowing (knowing something to the level of breathing, walking, etc.).
Ronald Jones II and Leonard Fournette have struggled as receivers. Neither is experienced with the NFL passing game on Brady's level of complexity, and they don't adjust at the higher speed of "knowing" their role. The Bengals may have neglected Bernard's potential, but Bernard still demonstrated advanced route adjustments and pass protection skills.
Bernard is James White with better skill between the tackles, and it's why he's earning extensive time in the red zone during Buccaneers camp. Tampa Bay wants to throw multiple looks at defenses, and Bernard can handle these adjustments at a higher level than Fournette and Jones.
Bernard's style of running also suits the Buccaneers' scheme, which employs a lot of Duo. A man-blocking scheme with a pair of double teams inside, Duo works well with backs who can manipulate creases with efficient footwork, stop-start movement, and deep presses into the line of scrimmage. This play generates smaller creases, and Bernard's patience, footwork, and low center of gravity make him the best fit here as well.
Fournette's best plays are gap-style runs where he works downhill towards on crease behind a pulling guard and hits that hole hard with the full force of his size and acceleration without much cutting. Jones has the acceleration and tackling-breaking prowess for gap plays and the footwork and developing patience for zone plays that should work well enough for Duo. However, Bernard is still the more refined option, even if not on Jones' level as a tackle-breaker.
Ledyard and I did a 30-minute podcast on Bernard's 2021 prospects this week if you want to learn more. Ledyard believes Jones and Bernard will likely form a 1-2 punch with Fournette possibly the odd-man-out.
Even if the Buccaneers turn into a dreaded committee, let's remember that New England was this type of three-headed backfield monster with Brady in the past, and James White and Dion Lewis were productive fantasy options:
- 2015: No.26 PPR RB - White
- 2017: No.15 PPR RB - Lewis
- 2018: No. 7 PPR RB - White
- 2019: No.19 PPR RB - White
Although Brady was the 13th-ranked and 12th-ranked fantasy passer in 2019 and 2018, he was the No.2 QB in 2017 and 2015. While Brady will have to throw downfield to be a record-setting producer, there's still potential for Bernard to vastly out-perform his current fantasy value in this offense. And if the Buccaneers suffer a rash of injuries or the aging Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski suddenly fall off the cliff, Bernard becomes a bigger factor in the offense.
It makes Bernard a cheap and effective late-round hedge for your stack of your Buccaneers options in the early-to-middle rounds.
Alex Collins
Chris Carson is the rock-solid starter, and Rashaad Penny is in the best shape of his NFL career. Still, Alex Collins should be on your preseason waiver-wire list heading into the 2021 campaign because he's making a strong push for the backup role ahead of Penny. Collins delivered top-15 fantasy production in 2017 as the Ravens' starter after the Seahawks cut him from its roster. Injury, a dip in production, and suspension led to his downfall as the lead back.
Seattle remembered its mistake of letting Collins go and added the runner to the roster during the 2020 season. Only 26, Collins is young enough to carry the load if called upon, and he has excellent footwork and patience, which is essential for effective running in a zone scheme. Penny is the best athlete of the backs on the Seahawks' depth chart but was a gap runner at San Diego State and often looked lost in Seattle's zone game during his first two seasons with the club.
Seattle wants to run wide zone like the Rams, and it means it needs a back who will get his fair share of meaningful touches. Collins is a smart inside runner with tackle-breaking skills and a competent check-down option. If he earns the backup role before your late-August and September drafts, he's worth a late stash in 20-round formats. If he's the No.3 option, keep him high on your waiver list because I doubt Penny will sew up the role to the extent that Collins doesn't see the field and get a shot to overtake Penny during the regular season.
Bryan Edwards
The 2020 wide receiver draft class was the best I've scouted in 16 years. Edwards was a player somewhat lost among the top names in the group — the Raiders also drafted Henry Ruggs ahead of Edwards. However, Edwards could easily become the more productive player of the two long-term.
Edwards has the tackling-breaking and open-field skills of a young Terrell Owens, the contested-catch upside of A.J. Green, and as a route runner, he reminds Derek Carr a lot of a young Davante Adams when they played together at Fresno State. When we miss on sleepers, we often find that we're a year early to the party.
Edwards earned that Adams comparison from Carr last year and promptly got hurt before he could build on that praise during the season. This summer, Edwards is not only generating the Adams comparison but also the Owens comp from Gruden. This isn't new to you if you've been reading my recent touting of Edwards.
What is new is Gruden telling the media that the offense has evolved to feature its outside receivers more than they have in the recent past. It's a good sign that the Raiders trust Edwards and Ruggs enough to make them a larger potential priority in the offense's 2021 game plan.
Considering that Ruggs is the likely split end and field stretcher, look for Edwards to earn the most targets behind Darren Waller in the offense's pecking order. The West Coast Offense brand that Gruden runs is also known for working through its flanker, so Edwards is a great sleeper as the 74th receiver taken in the average fantasy draft at the end of most drafts with at least 20 rounds.
The most knowledgeable leagues are taking him between the 14th and 16th rounds. Considering that he's beginning to generate buzz, drafting him inside of the 15th round is a smart choice given his ability, starter status, upside, and the fact that at pick 174 in most leagues, you'll be deciding between Edwards, Jalen Reagor, and Nelson Agholor. Easy choice for me. Or, you can see if he falls past the 15th after you've had a shot at this year's Gut Check late-round faves, Emmanuel Sanders and Rondale Moore.
A.J. Green
I wrote about Moore (and Edwards) here last week. Still, you can see from the preseason games that Moore will earn a lot of manufactured touches in this offense in addition to gaining mismatches thanks to DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, and Christian Kirk. Speaking of Kirk, it appears he's locked into the slot role — the role that seems to be the best fit for Moore in this offense.
I still think Moore has excellent late-round upside for fantasy managers this year because the Cardinals could have a nasty four-receiver offense with Moore as the manufactured-touch player. It leaves us with Green, who, by all fantasy analyst's accounts, is dead to them. They will tell you he didn't look like the same player last year, and they attribute it to a loss in athletic ability.
I don't trust most fantasy analysts' eyes when it comes to these assessments. I trust those of Hopkins, wide receiver coach Shawn Jefferson, and Kliff Kingsbury. They all believe he's the same player capable of ruling fantasy lineups.
So much so, Hopkins told Green in March that when they're on the field, if Green wants to switch sides and routes with Hopkins at any time, that's fine with Hopkins and something Kingsbury has signed off on.
Green is the No.2 in this offense — and offense that generated nearly 4,000 passing yards for Kyler Murray despite Chrisitan Kirk missing two games last year and lacking any other legitimate high-end starter in the receiving game to complement Hopkins. Green has the label of a contested-catch rebounder in fantasy circles who is past his prime when in fact, he's also a terrific route runner who will face a lot of single coverage thanks to the presence of three other receivers who will command too much from opposing defenses to roll over to Green's side.
The Footballguys staff projects Green to earn low-end, fantasy WR4 value at best, and that's only counting Sigmund Bloom's 64-catch, 702-yard tally — an optimistic outlook relative to his peers on staff. I have Green at 73 catches, 913 yards, and 5 scores, which places him closer to fantasy WR3 value. It's far more reasonable to expect Green to earn 1,000 yards and 7-8 scores in this offense than people believe.
I'll take Green over Russell Gage, Cole Beasley, Agholor, Smith, Cobb, and Reagor — and they are all getting drafted before him. None of those options have Green's skill, surrounding talent, and upside.
Sammy Watkins
Nobody in fantasy trusts Watkins. They see him like a Will Fuller type who is always hurt. There has been some truth to this notion. The reasons appear different.
I'll let you read between the lines of Jene Bramel's statement that the only healthy season Fuller has had earned him a suspension for a positive PED test. The story is different for Watkins, who worked with the Chiefs' staff in recent years to recalibrate his body and running stride to hopefully cut down on nagging injuries.
However, another difference between Fuller and Watkins is Fuller's recent production when healthy when Watkins' numbers have been spottier when he's on the field. Context tells the story better. Fuller was one of the top two options in the passing game. The Chiefs used Watkins far more often as the third, fourth, or fifth option in its scheme. When Watkins earned primary looks against top defenders — think the opener in Jacksonville two years ago after Tyreek Hill got hurt against Jalen Ramsey— Watkins delivered.
Watkins has become a much better student of the game since he was in Buffalo with Greg Roman. Back then, he was also a heavy drinker. He ended that bad habit before coming to Kansas City, but he didn't get to showcase the full extent of his talents as a Chief because of his role.
He should be one of the top two receivers in Baltimore, at least to begin the year, and he and rookie Rashad Bateman are the most well-rounded talents on the depth chart. At Watkins' price point, I'd take a chance even if others see him as radioactive.
Denzel Mims
We're writing off Mims way too early. After questions about his route running and fit with the offense, we've learned that Mims lost 20 pounds due to a severe bout of food poisoning. Suppose Mims had been in a car accident, lost 20 pounds due to recoverable injuries, and it was made public, we'd still have the perception of him as a future starter.
Instead, our collective ignorance of the context behind Mims' performance has fueled inaccurate speculation into his talents. Based on his film at Baylor and last year in New York, Mims as the goods.
Corey Davis is competent, maybe even good, but has never met the lofty expectations set for him. Elijah Moore gets a ton of love and is an exciting prospect, but I see a faster Jarvis Landry more than a slower Steve Smith, Jr. Small distinction for some but not for me. We know what Jamison Crowder is, and Keelan Cole has flashed big-time play, but he's far from a guarantee either.
Mims has strung together some strong practices recently, and he's earning more first- and second-team reps now that he is fully recovered. It showed up in the first preseason game as well. While I much prefer Edwards and Green, Mims should be considered your last pick in drafts or near the top of your list for the waiver wire heading into the regular season.
Adam Trautman
I've written about him a few times this year. The quick summary: Big, quick, savvy route runner for his age, and a chance to be the next dynamic athlete at the position not named Kyle Pitts.
Hayden Hurst
Also oft-mentioned this summer, Hurst will effectively be the No.1 TE if you consider Kyle Pitts the No.2 WR in the Atlanta offense. I'm not counting on Russell Gage or Olamide Zaccheaus to deliver as the third-most productive option in the Falcons' pecking order, much less the No.2 receiver role. Look for a lot of two-TE sets with Pitts in a two-point stance detached from the formation and Hurst also running routes.
Jared Cook
The Chargers are using an offense that will look a lot like the Saints' scheme. Cook came from the Saints scheme, where he was a TE1 during both seasons despite missing three contests during that span. Cook has been a top-six fantasy option at his position for two of his past three seasons. Tre' McKitty and the unproven Donald Parham are not threatening Cook's role. And, Justin Herbert is raving about Cook's athletic ability and pass-catching.
Unless you think rookie Josh Palmer, Tyron Johnson, and Jalen Guyton are superior options right now, it's amazing that Cook is the 18th tight end drafted in fantasy leagues this summer in an offense with Herbert under center. How you don't wait until the 11th-12th round and "reach" for Cook is beyond my comprehension.
I'd even consider Cook as a TE1 and take my chances with the waiver wire if he doesn't work out. After all, if you draft strong depth at other positions earlier on, you'll have the resources to acquire a productive player at this position.
There you go, a mix of unproven youth, written-off "olds," and a few forgotten gems. Good luck.
If you take Brady and stack Bucs, you won't need it.