If you want to dramatically improve your fantasy drafts, develop a strong end game.
Every fantasy GM is prepared for the first 8-10 rounds of a draft. The final 8-10 rounds of a draft are where the greatest difference-makers will be.
Here are 13 fantasy starters selected after the 10th round in 2020 drafts:
- Justin Herbert
- James Robinson
- Mike Davis
- Myles Gaskin
- J.D. McKissic
- Justin Jefferson
- Marvin Jones
- Nelson Agholor
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Robert Tonyan Jr
- T.J. Hockenson
- Logan Thomas
- Mike Gesicki
More than half of these players were top-12 starters at their position last year. If you drafted well with your opening and middle games — which is increasingly becoming difficult not to do in a hobby where everyone is hyperfocused on the first 10-12 rounds of a draft — landing even 1-2 of these difference-makers gave you terrific depth at a position.
If you want to build a team that isn't as reliant on chasing free agents and gives you resources for favorable trades, developing your end game is your first priority. There's a smaller margin of difference among the players in the first half of the draft. The players in this range are mostly proven producers.
In the second half of drafts, most players lack the appealing data that the average fantasy GM covets. The perceived ceiling and floor of these players either have greater variance than the known commodities or their upside and downside is a much greater unknown to them. It leads to a pervasive attitude that the second half of drafts is a crapshoot and you can sense the average GMs approach it this way.
While these players are in situations where their odds of production are lower than early-round talents, it's for this exact reason that you should be even more diligent about your end game and cultivating an edge over your competition. Before I share my list of potential end-game difference-makers for 2021, let's look at 2020's list for intel that can help you create your own end-game strategy in the future.
- Six of the players were early-round picks.
- Seven were late-round picks or UDFAs.
- Seven have been with more than one team.
- Four of the late-round picks flashed high-end athletic and/or football skills during past preseasons.
- Four were rookies.
- Only one had past elite production, a substantial injury history, and a long enough career depress their value: Marvin Jones.
These commonalities provide a good foundation of what to look for what late-round players.
- Most of them will be younger than 29 and lack extensive experience as an NFL starter.
- You'll want to target players who were either early-round picks that haven't emerged and fantasy GMs have lost patience — especially second-and third-year players with elite athletic ability at late-developing positions like tight end or quarterback.
- If the player is a late-round pick or UDFA, he has shown that he can make difficult plays during the preseason or has earned a routine contributing role during the season with a previous team.
- It's common that these late-round picks/UDFAs were considered early-round prospects at one point during their college careers due to strong production and/or top athletic ability — Mike Davis and Logan Thomas are two examples.
- The rookies earned extensive playing time during the preseason and impressed the organization with their play despite the analysts having low expectations due to perceptions about scheme fit.
These guidelines should give you a decent start with identifying suitable end-game prospects. Of course, the best way to develop a strong end game is to study football or make selections based on recommendations of people who study the game and its players.
Here are my 12 end-game prospects to potentially transform your team into a juggernaut in 2021.
Marvin Jones
As we see above, Jones doesn't fit the guidelines above but when he's healthy, he's a productive player. Jones is an excellent route runner who can play all three positions for a team and do so at a high level. He's quick and fast enough to deliver as a deep threat and his techniques are strong enough to make him a reliable intermediate route runner.
Jones is also one of the better contested-catch options in the game. There's not much he can't do, but because he has ranked outside the top 36 options on an annual basis for half of his eight-year career, Jones isn't as well-regarded as he should be among fantasy GMs. Readers look at his stats and see a 31-year-old receiver on his third team with only one 1,000-yard campaign and 11 games missed out of the past 48.
They don't see that he's had four seasons with at least 60 catches and 9 touchdowns.
Jones has been the best receiver in Jaguars' training camp and he'll likely have the best connection with rookie Trevor Lawrence because of his route running, versatility, and vast NFL experience. Jacksonville's defense will remain among the worst in the NFL this year, which should create a lot of garbage-time targets for Jones.
Even if Jones doesn't repeat his top-15 fantasy campaign from 2020, his skills and scheme fit make him a strong candidate to once again outplay his 12th-round ADP.
Tua Tagovailoa
Miami's starter fits the guidelines like a glove. He's a first-round pick who flashed top-end skils last year in limited playing time but because of rookie growing pains that COVID-19 protocols exacerbated, the hobby is split on Tagovailoa's potential to emerge as a strong producer.
Tagovailoa is leaving boards as early as the 10th round and as late as the 14th with an ADP at the turn of the rounds 12/13. Last year, Tagovailoa had four starts with at least two total touchdowns and three games with at least 295 yards passing despite missing key contributors Myles Gaskin, Preston Williams, and Isaiah Ford for at least four of those contests. DeVante Parker also essentially missed three games.
With Parker and Jaylen Waddle in the fold as well as the potential for Will Fuller to finally stay healthy (one can hope, I guess), Miami has the makings of one of the most explosive receiving corps in the NFL.
It's these details that people gloss over when they write off second-year players with elite potential who didn't show it during their first year. T.J. Hockenson, who was never known for dropping the ball or getting hurt, dealt with drops and injuries as a rookie and this led to a 13th-round ADP last year.
Whether you like the bold approach of multiple shots at late-round quarterbacks or you're seeking a backup with the upside to match or outplay your early or mid-round starter, Tagovailoa has the burgeoning skills and surrounding talent to be at the top of your list.
Trey Lance
My No.2 quarterback in the 2021 Rookie Scouting Portfolio, Lance has been a prominent name on my radar since June of 2020. Although Jimmy Garoppolo is slated to begin the season as the starter, Kyle Shanahan is creating packages for Lance and is even considering a rotation with the two players.
At least that's what Shanahan is telling reporters. You shouldn't believe this arrangement will last more than 4-6 weeks. If Garoppolo plays to his potential, Lance will earn some packages like Taysom Hill, Kordell Stewart, and Steve McNair when they were rookies. However, Lance is playing so well in camp and Garoppolo is a better practice player than a gamer, you should anticipate a mid-season switch.
Garoppolo has never been a good player under pressure. Although he gets rid of the ball fast, he rushes his process and it leads to inaccurate decisions and poor ball placement. He's overcome some of the glaring issues that would have prevented him from starting in the league, but it's a problem that still holds him back from becoming a top-flight NFL passer and game manager.
I am betting the Patriots saw it and we know the 49ers saw it multiple times during the past two seasons, including the end of the Super Bowl against the Chiefs.
Lance is an accurate vertical passer with big-play rushing skills. If he earns the starting role by midseason, fantasy GMs should expect QB1 production due to the combination of his Lance's arm and legs. Don't be surprised if he earns low-end QB1 production with modest passing yardage bolstered by rushing yards and scores.
Justin Fields
Much like Lance, Fields should generate big plays with his vertical passing and big-play rushing that bolster his fantasy production once he takes over for Andy Dalton. The coaching staff has already told the media that Fields is progressing faster than expected and he's making a move that could lead to him becoming the Bears' starter faster than they expected.
Whether you think that's the case, or it's the Bears smartly setting lower expectations to the media to account for the potential of the rookie acclimating slowly, Fields has performed well enough that he should be starting before Halloween. This is a talented quarterback class and I would not be afraid to invest in it when making re-draft selections after the 10th round. One if not all of Lance, Fields, and Mac Jones (see below) have the skills to deliver stretch-run fantasy QB1 performances.
Adam Trautman
Tight ends typically need 2-3 years to become productive NFL receivers. Trautman is worth the investment because the Saints have a young and mostly unproven receiving corps and the tight end position has been a highly targeted role for the offense. Although beat reporters will tell you that Trautman is unproven as a receiver because they lean so hard on the 15-catch, 171-yard, 1-score stat line from 2020, those who study the film will tell you that Trautman's route running, blocking, and athletic skills were all impressive for a rookie.
Trautman acclimated fast to the league for a rookie tight end from a small school and the Saints let Jared Cook walk as a result. Nick Vannett is there for depth and provides blocking expertise in two-tight end sets. Trautman will be the primary receiver on the depth chart.
Tight ends make good safety blankets for quarterbacks and Jameis Winston threw 27 touchdowns to tight ends between 2017-2019 — the fourth-most in the league during that span. Buccaneers tight ends also had the sixth-most fantasy points for the position during those three seasons. New Orleans was 10th in the league in touchdowns thrown to tight ends.
And if Taysom Hill earns the start, his track record is smaller but still encouraging when considering the scheme. He only has four career passing touchdowns, but half of them went to Cook.
If you're seeking the next emerging talent, Trautman is a name to know early.
Rashaad Penny
I was not a huge fan of the Seahawks picking Penny as early as they did, especially when he was a gap runner trying to acclimate to Seattle's running scheme that employed a lot of zone blocking. Even so, Penny's athletic talent and creativity had moments where it shined despite lacking great efficiency as a decision-maker. And it was that lack of decision-making acumen as a zone runner that kept him as a change of pace to Chris Carson early in his career.
Just as Penny began to show some development in this area, he suffered an ACL tear and then complications with his recovery. Fantasy GMs and writers were largely ignorant of how vital of a factor Penny's lack of scheme experience would be at the beginning of his career. You could see it based on past ADP. In 2018 and 2019, Penny had eighth-round ADPs — that's the point of the draft where fantasy GMs take shots on players they believe will eventually be a starter but don't have the job yet.
Penny's current ADP is the 14th round, although he's leaving draft boards as high as the 12th round. This range is where his ADP should have been all along. Except now, he's a more experienced zone runner, he's in peak shape, and he's having as good of a camp that the Seahawks have seen from him. This makes him an excellent late-round handcuff to Chris Carson. You're not expecting Penny to deliver for you, but you're selecting a talented contingency plan with elite upside at a position with a ton of turnover due to injury.
Nelson Agholor
Nothing scares off fantasy players and writers from receivers more than dropped passes — even when industry receiver expert Matt Harmon would encourage you not to overreact to this data point. Agholor's drops are a thing of recent legend. It cost the former first-round pick a second contract in Philadelphia where he functioned largely as a slot receiver.
As we can piece together after his 2020 season with the Raiders where he averaged a gaudy 18.7 yards per catch, Agholor is a far more versatile option when he has a quarterback who can hit the broad side of a barn beyond 35 yards. Now in New England, a location best known as the place where veteran receivers go to die, Agholor's 2020 season as a WR2 seems like a distant memory.
This may be the case for the first 4-6 games with Cam Netwon shot-putting the ball to Agholor with a throwing shoulder held together with duct tape. This will be a different story when Mac Jones takes the field.
Jones is an aggressive downfield quarterback who is also skilled and throwing his receivers open. With Agholor still going in the back half of drafts, fantasy GMs have little confidence that he can repeat last year's starter production. Bill Belichick has praised Agholor's attention to detail and versatility. It makes him a strong candidate to lead this team in receiving yardage at an excellent price.
At this range of the draft, taking a player with proven production—even if it was just two years out of six—and a high draft pedigree who is in a position to contribute as a starter is the right kind of end-game target.
Emmanuel Sanders
Sanders' recent foot injury that kept him from practicing, age, and disappointing 2020 campaign in New Orleans makes him radioactive for many fantasy GMs. But I've detailed why Sanders offers fantasy WR2 upside in this Buffalo offense as a superior option to John Brown. Read it and you'll be prepared to act.
Rondale Moore
Moore will be working between two excellent route runners in DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green, which should garner him some fantastic mismatches against safeties, nickel corners, and linebackers. By the way, if I made this list longer, Green would have been on it as well because he's having a good camp and I rarely trust fantasy writers when they begin assessing the gained/lost athletic ability and the Red Zone channel is their main resource for this analysis.
While Green has a great career to lean on, Moore is the younger and safer option to consider at this late stage of drafts. He's difficult for defenders to jam, he's special in the open field, and he's in an offense that should create a lot of room for Moore to roam. My two favorite rookie receivers to draft this year are Waddle and Moore. Moore is the better bargain of the two.
Mac Jones
Jones is outplaying Cam Newton in training camp. He's a Peyton Manning-style of a passer with the brains, toughness, and pocket presence of a future starter and that future is arriving soon. Veterans are praising Jones' management of the game and reliability, which are two vital factors for successful quarterback play.
Although the Patriots' receiving corps lacks outstanding weapons, Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, and James White are competent enough to support 4,000 yards from a rookie passer who understands how to distribute the ball and balance aggressive and smart play.
"I think he can be special," starting offensive tackle Trent Brown said of Jones, via WEEI.com. "There's a lot going on for him right now – this is a different ballgame, and with Bill's defense, there's a lot of moving parts out there. He's just got to settle down and I think he'll be all right...To be so young, I think he makes some throws that not a lot of young guys can make," Brown said. "I think it's all about settling down and knowing you can still play the game. It's still football. Yeah, it's a different level, but it's still football. I think that goes for any rookie."
There was a point in my assessment of these quarterbacks where I had Jones-Lance-Lawrence at the top of my board in this order. Jones has the upside to be the closest thing we've seen to Peyton Manning since he left the league. There's a big gap between potential and reality, but if you take shots on late-round passers, Jones is a great combination of talent, value, and upside.
Bryan Edwards
Edwards was the talk of Raiders rookies during 2020 training camp, earning comparisons to Derek Carr's former teammate Davante Adams. The rookie performed well enough to earn a role in the starting rotation but an injury derailed his season early. This summer, Edwards is ahead of John Brown on the depth chart and not only earning the Adams comps from Carr but also a Terrell Owens comp from Jon Gruden and Randy Moss mentions from teammates.
Yeah, that's all laying it on thick, but Edwards has played well and he has the ball skills, strength, speed, and size of a future elite option. Because Edwards was a tier lower than the top names in 2020's vaunted receiver class and he didn't emerge as a rookie, he's largely forgotten — despite being on track to earn a starting role.
Edwards has the potential to earn top-15 production at his position this year. I'd rather invest in Edwards than Henry Ruggs based on current talent-to-value.
Hayden Hurst
In 2020, the tight end position had weak production in the bottom half of its top-10 producers relative to other fantasy seasons, but Hurst qualified as the No.9 option last year essentially tied with Rob Gronkowski. This year, most are writing him off because of the arrival of Kyle Pitts. This could be a huge mistake.
Arthur Smith likes using two tight ends. Pitts is more of a detached receiver than he is an in-line tight end at this point of his career. With Julio Jones now in Tennessee, expect Pitts to play a lot as a detached receiver in 11 personnel sets and Hurst to be the in-line tight end. It wouldn't shock me at all if Hurts posts similar production to 2020 because of the way Atlanta will deploy its personnel.
Most are either sleeping on this thought or haven't even considered it because they simply look at the depth chart and think Hurts is now the No.2 tight end and No.2 tight ends have no fantasy value. It would be better if they look at Hurst as the TE1 and Pitts as the team's WR2. That's the most likely reality in terms of personnel use.
Hurst will likely be available as a free agent in many drafts, but getting him in the final round is a great value if you aren't sold on your first option or missed out on early options you liked.