Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid, and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterbacks
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Cam Newton – Newton paces the fallers with a 13-spot drop to QB45 following his release from New England. While he is still young enough to play for three to five years (the key dynasty window), his poor play in 2020 and losing out to a rookie this year make it hard to envision another high-upside starting opportunity in Newton's future. His best hope is signing with a Super Bowl contender as the No. 2 and getting an opportunity through injury. But that's a lottery ticket scenario.
Deshaun Watson - Watson drops out of the top 10 to QB14, in part because the likelihood of missing 2021 in its entirety has increased. He's still young enough and has elite skills to bounce back into the Top 10 if his legal situation resolves amicably. But, for now, if you can move him for a top-10 price tag, it's worth considering.
Jameis Winston – Winston moves back into the top 30 (QB27) after winning the Saints starting job over Taysom Hill and then throwing five touchdowns in his debut this past weekend. While we can't extrapolate his future from one start, he had total command of Sean Payton's offense despite Michael Thomas and TreQuan Smith being out with injuries. If Winston can minimize turnovers (zero in Week 1), he may finally live up to his status as a former No. 1 overall draft pick.
Hicks
Teddy Bridgewater - Many names will be discussed after week one; Teddy Bridgewater isn’t likely to be one of them. That would be a mistake. He may not be a guy you start regularly, but he provides an excellent depth option and plays mistake-free football well. He is a great second quarterback in dynasty leagues and should provide consistent top 12-20 numbers every week. After beating out Drew Lock and looking real good on opening day, he moves way up in rankings. Even with Jerry Jeudy out for a while, that receiving group he has does most of the work for him.
Matt Ryan - Philadelphia was expected to do poorly this year. Atlanta made them look like a playoff team. Inexperienced coaching, no running game, Julio Jones has gone, and a defense that looks poor. Good luck Matt Ryan. Why the team extended his contract instead of going with a rookie to go with the new coaching staff still doesn’t make sense. It will be interesting to see how quickly they can pull something together, but for now, Ryan has to be cast aside for better options.
Sam Darnold - Darnold looked good to open his time with the Panthers. Darnold still made mistakes, and it was only against the Jets, but his experience in New York is in the rearview. Darnold and that excellent group of wide receivers are going to push to be fantasy starters this year. Then Darnold should get better and more confident. Oh, he has Christian McCaffrey at his disposal as well. Moves into my top 12.
Hindery
Jalen Hurts - Single games matter most for quarterbacks who have the smallest sample sizes of starts and the widest ranges of possible outcomes. Hurts is a perfect example of both. We know that this is a make-or-break season for Hurts, who needs to prove he is a starting-caliber NFL quarterback before the 2022 draft. After one week, odds have increased that he actually does so. If he can hold onto a starting job, Hurts is a weekly QB1 for fantasy due to his rushing ability. After a big Week 1, he is now my QB12.
Carson Wentz - There are some valid reasons why Wentz looked bad. He missed basically all of training camp and does not have great weapons to throw to. At some point, we can’t have any more excuses for Wentz, however. He needs to prove he is a franchise quarterback sooner than later. The early returns were uninspiring. Wentz drops a couple of spots to QB26, behind Derek Carr and Sam Darnold.
Running Back
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Raheem Mostert - Time to get pennies on the dollar. Mostert cannot stay on the field, and the depth chart in San Francisco is talented and crowded. Mostert allegedly will be back down the stretch, but for how long and in what capacity? At age 29, it is hard to see any value in keeping Mostert. Maybe a good sales pitch can get you something back, but otherwise, he drops way down in rankings.
Damien Harris - With the trade of Sony Michel to the Rams, it appeared obvious that Damien Harris would be a back worth watching in 2021. His role was even bigger than expected, with 23 carries, 100 yards, and even a couple of receptions. A fumble was disappointing, but he appears the only back on this roster capable and trusted to exceed 10 carries in any given week. With some touchdowns, he moves into elite territory. His situation could be volatile, but with a rookie quarterback and a lack of talent at wide receiver, Harris is a big mover after week one.
Elijah Mitchell - Mitchell will be a popular target in all types of leagues. Of course, he is a massive riser in rankings, but caution needs to be exercised. We have numerous examples of multiple backs having great games under Kyle Shanahan at various stages in a season. With Trey Sermon expected in the fold, JaMychal Hasty being used last year, Mitchell could disappoint. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are also expected back later in the year. If you can grab Mitchell, do so, but do not spend all your capital to do so.
David Johnson - Another veteran back struggling to make an impact is David Johnson. Propped up by a touchdown, it is a false promise on his likely usage in 2021. He could have been cut with significant cap savings, but the team restructured his contract indicating a significant role. Mark Ingram and Philip Lindsay saw otherwise. The Houston Texans aren’t going to push 40 carries every week, but when Johnson can only get three of them, it’s time to plummet his stock.
Hindery
Joe Mixon - Mixon got off to a great start (150 total yards and a touchdown). More importantly, we saw some positive signs about how the rest of his season might go. Rookie Chris Evans did not play a single snap. Evans was the only stumbling block in Mixon’s path to playing nearly all of the passing-down snaps. Plus, in a bigger-picture sense, we saw flashes that the Bengals offense might already be pretty good, with plenty of room to grow. Mixon just turned 25-years old, and both the short and longer-term outlooks are positive.
Trey Sermon - We have seen over the years that draft capital does not mean much to Kyle Shanahan. He will happily roll with undrafted or late-round guys over the higher picks, so we should take the threat of Elijah Mitchell seriously. It is way too early to panic and sell Sermon for cheap, but we can’t ignore that he was a healthy scratch in Week 1. The competition for playing time between Mitchell, Sermon, and JaMychal Hasty is just getting started. There is still a bunch of upside here given the potency of this offense but more uncertainty about which back will ultimately benefit.
Zach Moss - As with Sermon, Moss was a healthy scratch in Week 1. That has to readjust our expectations for him. Given how pass-heavy Buffalo is and how much Josh Allen runs around the goal line, there is questionable upside for any of the backs in this offense. With Moss apparently falling to third on the depth chart, he has multiple hurdles to overcome to approach fantasy relevancy.
Darrell Henderson - My assumption coming into the season was that Henderson would be the 1A to Sony Michel’s 1B in a committee for the Rams. Instead, Henderson barely left the field and handled over 90% of the backfield touches. In an offense as productive as the Rams should be, that gives him serious short-term upside. This backfield could be his longer-term, as well, given the uncertain future of Cam Akers. Henderson moves up to RB21.
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Cam Akers – Akers takes an unfortunate drop to RB58 after suffering an Achilles tear. While Akers is young enough to have a long career post-recovery, history has not been kind to Achilles injuries, particularly workhorse tailbacks. There's no way a dynasty roster can reliably value Akers as an asset now, and if you can get 30 cents on the dollar, do it and never look back.
J.K. Dobbins – Dobbins drops from RB8 to RB21 after his season-ending ACL tear. ACL tears have much higher recovery rates than Achilles injuries, so the door remains open for Dobbins to be a multi-year fantasy starter. That said, he was already in a committee on a run-heavy team, and if the Ravens find viable alternatives in his absence, he could be forced to wait for his second contract on a new team. The odds of delivering top-10 returns in that situation are poor.
TySon Williams – Williams vaults from outside the Top 100 to RB45, with the potential to keep moving higher depending on how he handles the Ravens starting opportunity. Williams was arguably Baltimore's No. 4 tailback just a few weeks ago, but injuries to J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill completely reshaped the narrative. The coaches expressed confidence in Williams' ability to handle the No. 1 role, but they also signed Latavius Murray, LeVeon Bell, and Devonta Freeman as alternatives. If Williams flourishes in the next few weeks, he could be this year's James Robinson.
Kenneth Gainwell – Gainwell vaults from RB50 to RB31 after an impressive Week 1 debut. The rookie had a good preseason, but most still expected Boston Scott to back up Miles Sanders. Yet, Gainwell was Sanders' clear backup and, more encouragingly, was the lead back in the Eagles' two-minute drill offense. If he can make enough plays in this role, it's entirely possible he could work into a full committee with Sanders in 2022, and possibly a lead role if the team opts to move on from Sanders when his rookie contract expires.
Antonio Gibson – Gibson creeps into the Top 12 (RB11) as his evolution from collegiate gadget player to high-leverage complementary player in 2020 to full-time workhorse in 2021 continues apace. Gibson carried the ball 20 times in Week 1 and ran well, including decisive pushes up the middle. If he can remain durable, few running backs have his upside when you remember how Ron Rivera and Scott Turner are willing to give a talented running back a shockingly high snap count.
Wide Receiver
Hindery
DeVonta Smith - Every highly-drafted rookie wide receiver has some bust risk, simply because we haven’t seen them do it at the NFL level. A big Week 1 (6-71-1) from Smith is instant evidence that Smith is unlikely to fall into that category. John Ross did not have a single six-catch game in his first two NFL seasons, for example. Smith also benefits from the increased confidence in Jalen Hurts. Smith is now my WR14. After seeing his potential in Week 1, I would have to be blown away by an offer to consider trading him at this point.
Tyler Lockett - All of the positives we had heard about the Seahawks' new offense under Shane Waldron were on full display in Week 1, and Lockett was a prime beneficiary, racking up 100 yards and two touchdowns. He also benefits from everyone finally flipping the switch from offseason mode to regular-season mode. With the real games starting, our rosters don’t have to look the prettiest. We just need to win our fantasy matchups. Week 1 was a solid reminder that few wide receivers will be more impactful than Lockett, who moves up to my WR23.
Odell Beckham - I hate to knock a guy down due simply to injury, but Beckham being out in Week 1 was a real surprise. His recovery from last season’s knee injury has not gone as smoothly as expected, and the durability concerns ratchet up. We haven’t had a full, healthy season from Beckham since 2016. It is hard to pencil him in as a starter in your lineup, and with his 29th birthday coming up in a couple of months, the window for Beckham to return to his elite early-career form will not be open forever. He falls to WR44 for me.
Tyreek Hill - There was not much room to move up for Hill, but he is now comfortably my WR1 ahead of Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and the rest. Hill ended the 2020 regular season on a tear and picked up right where he left off in Week 1 with a monster 11-197-1 effort. If I were in a startup draft today (non-Superflex), Hill would be a target for me in the Top 5 overall.
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TreQuan Smith - It's almost time to give up on TreQuan Smith after the mercurial speedster started the year on Injured Reserve. Smith has missed multiple golden opportunities to cement a role as one of New Orleans' key playmakers, and with a new quarterback in place, Smith has a tiny window to vault back into relevance.
Brandon Aiyuk - Aiyuk will probably be fine, but he gets knocked down half a tier after being relegated to backup duties in Week 1. His demotion was concerning enough, but Deebo Samuel's explosive opening game also calls into question whether Aiyuk will ever emerge as the 49ers' clear-cut No. 1 receiver.
Corey Davis – Davis has been moving up the ranks for several updates and finds himself solidly in the Top 50 (WR49) now after an impressive debut with the Jets. Davis is the most talented receiver on the team, and Zach Wilson clearly trusts the heady veteran. As long as Davis stays healthy, he can push another 10-15 spots higher in the coming months.
Van Jefferson - Jefferson (WR56) jumps up more than 10 spots after playing well in the season opener and emerging as the Rams clear No. 3. If either Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods get hurt, Jefferson could be a 100+ target breakout in a dynamic offense. And even if Kupp and Woods stay healthy in 2021, we can't rule out a roster shuffling that prioritizes Jefferson as a full-time starter in 2022.
Hicks
Michael Gallup - Gallup was poised to showcase his wares to potential free-agent suitors for 2022. An early injury stands to cost him significant money. He was an excellent dynasty buy low, and his price may drop even further. If you have depth and can afford to hide a player or two, get Gallup. Missing a significant chunk of 2021 hurts his rankings now, as most need active players, but he is a future fantasy starter on a new team.
Anthony Schwartz - It’s agonizing watching a player you rate highly after the draft, go to a perfect situation for long-term development and then read too much into negative training camp reports. Schwartz was a player I had in my top 60 and a development spot on my roster. He now moves back into that territory after a severe August decline in standings. Schwartz looks ready to be a significant and versatile player in 2021 and, with development, a fantasy starter in a year or two. Grab him if you have the room.
Calvin Ridley - Following the trade of Julio Jones, it was assumed that Calvin Ridley would vault into the super-elite wide receiving group. I already had a cautious approach for many reasons, but Atlanta may take a while to get their season in the right direction. Ridley has relied on touchdowns for fantasy success in his career to date. It’s hard to see him approaching double digits in 2021. He drops until Atlanta gets their act together.
K.J. Osborn - The position of third wide receiver in Minnesota was assumed to be in the hands of many uninspiring guys. K.J. Osborn took that job after the opening game of the 2021 season. He will vault over 100 spots in rankings and may move even further if we see consistency. Minnesota looks to be a side that will struggle, making passing yardage a certainty. A fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft, his ascension was unheralded, but keep a watch on him and, if you have deep rosters, grab him.
Tight End
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Juwan Johnson - Everyone targeted Adam Trautman as a potential breakout months ago, but the young tight end had an exceedingly quiet preseason while teammate Juwan Johnson's drum beats were ever-present. Johnson was a red zone darling in Week 1 and may have been the sleeper we all should've focused on in drafts this summer.
Irv Smith - Smith's breakout was here. We all could see it. Kyle Rudolph was gone, and Smith was having an exemplary preseason and training camp. But he got hurt in late August, and that could be enough to permanently alter his trajectory, particularly if Tyler Conklin puts together a solid year. Smith has the athleticism, aggressiveness, and pedigree to be a star, so we can't drop him too far, but he's at least a tier (or two) lower.
Rob Gronkowski – Gronkowski is on the wrong side of 30 and doesn’t have many seasons left, but the tight end position is exceedingly thin. Gronkowski remains a top-12 asset even if his window closes sooner than other players in his tier. We saw in Week 1 that Gronkowski remains capable of week-winning performances.
Hicks
Rob Gronkowski - Not so fast. Rob Gronkowski is far from finished. He is as strong as ever, and as long as Tom Brady is around, he will be fantasy useful. The long term is harder to predict for both guys, well into the veteran stages of their careers. The phrase “a bird in the hand....” comes to mind when evaluating Gronkowski against young promising Tight Ends. Back to borderline starter status for him.
David Njoku - The career of David Njoku has disappointed since being drafted in the first round in 2017. It was noted his attitude had changed this offseason, coincidentally as he asked for a contract extension. Wisely the Browns are making him earn it. He looked explosive and switched on in early season action and gets a rise with the promise of career resurrection.
Hindery
George Kittle - Nobody else separated from the pack in terms of points per game. In the early going, it looks like Gronkowski is one of six-to-eight guys at the position who has the potential to be fantasy difference makers and separate from the pack of low-end TE1 options. He moves up to TE11.
Juwan Johnson - After a two-touchdown performance in Week 1, Johnson is a Top 20 dynasty tight end on my board. There is a real lack of upside once you get past the top ten or so at the position and Johnson’s upside stands out. He is a converted wide receiver, and the situation could not possibly be any better. The Saints are absolutely starved for weapons in the passing game, and Johnson looks like a guy who is at the right place at the right time to take advantage of that opportunity.
Rob Gronkowski - 2020 was a strange year at the tight end position. Only three tight ends really “mattered” in terms of gaining an edge on your fantasy competition, Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle. Nobody else separated from the pack in terms of points per game. In the early going, it looks like Gronkowski is one of six-to-eight guys at the position who has the potential to be fantasy difference-makers and separate from the pack of low-end TE1 options. He moves up to TE11.
If you would like to review our most recent Dynasty rankings, here is a link.
