Favorite Games
- Cowboys at Chargers - Over/Under 54.5
- Titans at Seahawks - Over/Under 53.5
- 49ers at Eagles - Over/Under 49
- Vikings at Cardinals - Over/Under 51
- Saints at Panthers - Over/Under 44
Favorite Additional Spots
- Buccaneers at home against the Falcons - Implied Team Total 31.5
- Browns at home against the Texans - Implied Team Total 30.5
- Broncos on the road against the Jaguars - Implied Team Total 25.5
- Steelers at home against the Raiders - Implied Team Total 27
- Patriots on the road against the Jets - Implied Team Total 24.25
- Bengals on the road against the Bears - Implied Team Total 21.5
- Rams on the road against the Colts - Implied Team Total 25.75
- Bills on the road against the Dolphins - Implied Team Total 25.75
CASH GAMES
Quarterbacks
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
| 1 | Dak Prescott | at Chargers | $6,800 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | vs. Cowboys | $6,700 |
| 3 | Kyler Murray | vs. Vikings | $8,200 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | at Colts | $6,400 |
| 5 | Teddy Bridgewater | at Jaguars | $5,400 |
Cowboys at Chargers has the highest Over/Under on the main slate and for good reason as both offenses offer exciting upside in a likely shootout. Our DFS decisions should start on a macro level and the first big-picture decision should be how we're going to handle this game. Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert both appear here in the Cash Game section but by no means does that mean they're not good GPP plays as well. Just understand this will be the most popular game from an ownership percentage so those tournament lineups will require some creativity. Prescott picked up right where he left off prior to injury in 2020, throwing for 403 yards and three touchdowns on opening night against a tough Buccaneers defense and he offers similar upside in this one. Herbert similarly impressed in Week 1, throwing for 337 yards and a touchdown against Washington's stout defense, and now he gets to play at home against an already vulnerable Cowboys defense that will be without their star defensive end, Demarcus Lawrence.
Kyler Murray was my preseason pick to finish as the overall QB1 this year due to his immense dual-threat upside. So far so good after he threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns and added another 20 yards and a touchdown on the ground. In his first game at home this year, the Cardinals will face a Vikings team that Joe Burrow found success against last week throwing for 261 yards and two touchdowns on only 27 attempts. And the Vikings defense is banged up as well: Anthony Barr and Everson Griffen have both been ruled out and Eric Kendricks is Questionable.
I contributed this headline to an offseason contributor's article titled "Value Plays: Quarterbacks": At the end of the year, Matthew Stafford joining the Rams will be one of, if not, the most important storyline of the 2021 season. Stafford being paired with Sean McVay looks great through one week after Stafford threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns against the Bears on Sunday Night Football. Stafford now gets to play in the dome in Indianapolis against a Colts defense that just gave up four touchdown passes to Russell Wilson on only 23 attempts.
Teddy Bridgewater is an exciting salary saver this week against a putrid Jaguars defense that just gave up 291 passing yards and two touchdowns to Tyrod Taylor in Week 1. Bridgewater threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday and provides competency to the Quarterback position in Denver, which offers a solid supporting cast of receiving weapons.
Running Backs
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
| 1 | Alvin Kamara | at Panthers | $8,800 |
| 2 | Nick Chubb | vs. Texans | $7,800 |
| 3 | Najee Harris | vs. Raiders | $6,300 |
| 4 | Joe Mixon | at Bears | $7,000 |
| 5 | Ezekiel Elliott | at Chargers | $6,200 |
| 6 | Elijah Mitchell | at Eagles | $5,000 |
Alvin Kamara's 24 opportunities (carries + targets) ranked tied for the seventh most in Week 1 and his 19.6 opportunities per game average ranked tenth best in the league in 2020. With Michael Thomas and TreQuan Smith hurt and Latavius Murray no longer on the team, Kamara put up 91 total yards and a touchdown in a game that wasn't even competitive against the Packers. Now he gets to play in what projects to be a closer game against a Panthers defense that ranked 24th in overall DVOA and 20th in run DVOA a season ago. Kamara is the clear-cut top option in a Sean Payton-led offense. He's a lock for our cash game lineups and a great tournament play as well.
The Browns have a true identity with trustworthy head coach Kevin Stefanski and one of the best offensive lines in football. They can run the ball at will and it helps that Nick Chubb is arguably the best pure runner in the game. Do not, I repeat do not, let the awful Jacksonville Jaguars franchise getting trounced by Houston distract you from the fact the Texans defense already ranked 30th in overall DVOA and 29th in run DVOA in 2020 before becoming even worse in the offseason with losses such as J.J. Watt. Chubb's overall volume is more capped than other studs at the position but his situation and talent make up for it. And you arguably can't find a better matchup than this one. Chubb is an incredible play in all formats.
Najee Harris didn't produce last week but he did play on 100% of the offensive snaps and received 19 opportunities. Snaps and opportunities are about as predictive as it gets for fantasy points, especially at the Running Back position. Harris was an organizational first-round pick in an attempt to become a more balanced offense so we can logically predict Harris' volume not only isn't going anywhere but is likely to increase in more favorable matchups as well. Enter a home matchup against a Raiders defense that ranked 28th in overall DVOA and 28th in run DVOA a season ago. Looking ahead and toward the bigger picture, this might be the last time Harris costs less than $7,000 all season. Take advantage!
Speaking of Running Back salaries jumping from the low $6,000s to the $7,000 range, this just happened for Joe Mixon after his talent collided with bankable volume. I wrote this in last week's article: With Giovani Bernard now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer, Joe Mixon has 25+ touch upside on Sunday. He ranked fourth in the entire league in opportunities per game (24.17) last season and that was with Bernard on the team. It appears I undersold Mixon drastically. He saw 33 opportunities and 33 touches on Sunday and both of these marks led the league. The Bengals are now road favorites and Mixon gets a Bears defense that just allowed 87 total yards and a touchdown to Darrell Henderson in Week 1.
It's strange to see Ezekiel Elliott priced at only $6,200 but it makes sense after Dallas' incredibly smart plan to avoid Tampa Bay's strong run defense resulted in only 13 Week 1 opportunities for Elliott. But let's zoom out a bit here and remember Elliott ranked seventh in the league in opportunities per game (21.21) a season ago. The smart bet here is to trust the bigger picture data set we have on Elliott as a workhorse and to project a significant workload increase in Week 2 against a Chargers defense that ranked 20th in overall DVOA and 26th in run DVOA last year.
You're taking on risk playing any Kyle Shanahan Running Back and player. Let's be upfront about that because that is not the ideal formula for a cash game Running Back. Yet Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are on Injured Reserve and Trey Sermon was a healthy inactive in Week 1. The odds of getting at least a committee Shanahan Running Back are high here and Elijah Mitchell only costs $5,000 after rushing 19 times for 104 yards and a touchdown a week ago. Mitchell is an athletic Mostert clone and gets to play in an intriguing fantasy game against the Eagles. If you need a Running Back in this price range to finalize your cash game lineup, the process makes sense.
Wide Receivers
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
| 1 | Tyler Lockett | vs. Titans | $7,200 |
| 2 | Antonio Brown | vs. Falcons | $6,000 |
| 3 | Amari Cooper | at Chargers | $6,800 |
| 4 | CeeDee Lamb | at Chargers | $6,400 |
| 5 | Keenan Allen | vs. Cowboys | $7,000 |
| 6 | JaMarr Chase | at Bears | $5,000 |
| 7 | Deebo Samuel | at Eagles | $6,700 |
| 8 | Emmanuel Sanders | at Dolphins | $4,000 |
| 9 | Tim Patrick | at Jaguars | $4,600 |
Tyler Lockett just put up 100 yards and two touchdowns on only five targets last week. His blowup performance will increase his ownership percentage in Week 2 but that doesn't necessarily mean he's only a cash game play. Remember, both Lockett and DK Metcalf played in all 16 games last season. Lockett saw more targets (132), more receptions (100), and the same amount of touchdowns (10) when compared to Metcalf. Lockett is an elite talent paired with a first-ballot Hall of Fame Quarterback playing at home in one of the best fantasy games of the week against a Titans defense that will be without Amani Hooker and that already ranked 29th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA a season ago.
Antonio Brown's 121 receiving yards were the fifth most in Week 1 and he saw a decent amount of targets (7). Brown looks like the Hall of Fame talent we loved over the past decade and gets to play at home against a Falcons defense that ranked 19th in pass DVOA in 2020 and that just gave up 264 yards and three touchdowns to Jalen Hurts in Week 1.
Cowboys at Chargers has the highest Over/Under on the main slate and for good reason as both offenses offer exciting upside in a likely shootout. Our DFS decisions should start on a macro level and the first big-picture decision should be how we're going to handle this game. Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Keenan Allen are all great plays in both cash and tournament lineups. Cooper led the league in targets (17) and Lamb tied for the second-most targets (15) in Week 1 as both posted great fantasy games. Both their projectable floor and upside should be increased a bit due to injuries on offense (Michael Gallup) and defense (Demarcus Lawrence). And Keenan Allen is that dude. Allen posted nine catches on 12 targets for 100 yards last Sunday and now he gets to play at home against a Cowboys defense that ranked 23rd in overall DVOA and 21st in pass DVOA a year ago.
JaMarr Chase was one of the best Wide Receiver prospects to be drafted in the first round over the past decade and he reminded us in Week 1 just how silly some narratives such as small preseason sample sizes and drops concerns can be. Chase put up five catches on only seven targets for 101 receiving yards and a touchdown in a game where Joe Burrow only attempted 27 passes. $5,000 is an incredible value for Chase against a Bears defense that just got shredded by Matthew Stafford a week ago.
With the 49ers' Running Back injuries and Brandon Aiyuk possibly still somewhat relegated to Kyle Shanahan's doghouse in Week 2, look for Deebo Samuel to keep his positive momentum going after catching nine of 12 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown last week. This is a fun fantasy game as well as a decent matchup for Samuel against an Eagles defense that ranked 15th in overall DVOA and 24th in pass DVOA in 2020.
Emmanuel Sanders played on 79 of 85 snaps in Week 1, which was actually more than Stefon Diggs, and he also saw eight targets. Sanders is a full-time player in one of the most pass-happy and successful offenses in the league and he can be rostered for only $4,000. Like last week, the matchup here for Buffalo isn't extremely favorable but my preferred cash game strategy is to lock in expensive studs at Running Back with guaranteed workloads and fill in the Wide Receiver position with affordable volume and bankable playing time. Sanders fits this philosophy perfectly.
Tim Patrick played on 46 off 66 snaps in Week 1 and that was with Jerry Jeudy in the lineup for 31 snaps. Jeudy is now on Injured Reserve and Patrick is the Broncos Wide Receiver that projects to gain the most value. Patrick is a reliable player who caught all four of his targets in Week 1 for 39 yards and a touchdown. Next up is the incompetent Jaguars defense that just made Tyrod Taylor look like a Hall of Famer last week after already being a terrible unit in 2020, ranking 31st in overall DVOA and 31st in pass DVOA.
Tight Ends
| Rank | Play | Opponent | Salary |
| 1 | Darren Waller | at Steelers | $7,600 |
| 2 | Kyle Pitts | at Buccaneers | $5,200 |
| 3 | Cole Kmet | vs. Bengals | $3,700 |
| 4 | James OShaughnessy | vs. Broncos | $2,700 |
Darren Waller saw 145 targets in 2020 and followed that up with 10 catches on 19 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Ravens. Waller's matchup against the Steelers this week isn't ideal but his volume at the Tight End position is as reliable as they come. John Gruden loves him and Derek Carr's Quarterback play-style meshes with Waller's game perfectly.
Kyle Pitts didn't put up a great stat line in Week 1 but he did play on 49 of 71 snaps and see eight targets. Those are exciting peripheral numbers that point to great games in Pitts' near future. The Falcons are current 12 point home dogs against Tampa Bay, which means there should be plenty of targets coming Pitts' way on Sunday.
Cole Kmet was one of my favorite players to draft all offseason as I loaded up in best ball and the thesis behind that aggressive offseason approach correlates with his favorable Week 2 projection. Kmet is an athletic 6’6” 262-pound beast that was just drafted in the second round last year and his usage breakout already happened as a rookie. Starting in Week 10, Kmet outsnapped Jimmy Graham in each of the final seven games. So it should've been no surprise to anyone when Kmet played on 51 of 69 snaps and saw seven targets in Week 1 of the 2021 season. He's only $3,700 this week and I doubt he'll be an obvious affordable starting Tight End for much longer, especially since he draws a favorable matchup this week against a Bengals defense that ranked 27th in overall DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA in 2020.
James OShaughnessy only costs $2,700 after playing on 59 of 73 snaps and seeing eight targets in Week 1. That's an incredible value for a cash game Tight End. I know it's only been one week but after a brutal loss to the Texans of all teams, this seems like a very easy s
