Links to similar discussions on other positions:
The notion of who to target in an auction draft takes on a much different meaning than it does in a serpentine format. For traditional drafts, you are locked into a certain pool of players based on where you are picking, and that pool shrinks in a fashion that greatly limits your options. But in an auction, you can do so much more with the targets you enter a draft with. Your strategy for when you nominate your targets, how you can massage your budget to acquire the players you want, and the unpredictable run on positions all make it possible to grab a larger share of your targets than you can in a traditional draft.
When talking about auction targets, it is natural to think of them as being low-cost options. But that is not necessarily the case. Targets are going to be lower-cost options than the players around them in the fantasy rankings. So targets can be high, moderate, or low-priced players. But they become targets because you can hopefully acquire them cheaper than similar players in the same tier. The way you make your roster a championship roster is to pay the market price for the guys you want, but then get deals on strong, productive players that the rest of the room is fading. It is a tall task, but that’s why you’re here.
The quarterback and tight end positions are similar in an auction room in that most leagues only require one of them to be in a starting lineup. In that regard, these two positions are much easier to navigate for true bargain hunting. You can often wait and be one of the last ones to get a starter at these positions and see prices truly bottom out when others don’t want to draft a backup or don’t want to pay for a starter quality player when they already have one on their team. Nevertheless, there are some targets that 2021 auction drafters should have on their radar at all price levels because of the combination of their price and upside.
Quarterbacks
Elite Targets
Dak Prescott – The Top 5 quarterbacks this year – Patrick Mahomes II, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Prescott – are in a tier by themselves and are widely considered to be the elite options in this year’s drafts. Of those five, only Prescott has much of a chance to deliver value in the way of his auction price. Through his first four games before the injury in 2020, he had already compiled 12 touchdowns (3 rushing), and had thrown for over 450 yards in three of the four contests. Put bluntly, the pace at which he was scoring fantasy points was astounding and his upside reaches the top of the position. His offensive line should be much better this year and he has one of the top wide receiver corps in the entire NFL. The key to Prescott is making sure to nominate him before the top tier of five quarterbacks is drying up. Ideally, you should nominate him with 2-3 of the Top 5 still on the board, and hope you get a small break on the price.
Middle Tier Targets
Jalen Hurts – There are enough fantasy managers who think highly of Hurts that it may be hard to get a big discount. But that’s okay because he still has plenty of room to deliver value even at his current auction price. On average, he’s being drafted as a low-end QB1, but with a price that is entirely reasonable given his upside. Last year the conversation around Josh Allen was somewhat similar as it is around Hurts: accuracy issues, a new weapon, and rushing upside. No, Jalen Hurts isn’t Josh Allen, but he did rush for 272 yards in only four full games (68 per game) while scoring four rushing touchdowns. Hurts is still a risky pick, however, as there are Deshaun Watson rumors swirling, a new coaching staff, and he's only started a handful of NFL games. But that's keeping his price low so you should try to score a deal on him and then back him up with a solid floor play.
Ryan Tannehill – His auction price rose slightly after the Julio Jones trade, but Tannehill remains perennially undervalued. The Titans lost their offensive coordinator Art Smith to the Falcons, so some caution is warranted, but have you ever seen a quarterback account for 40 touchdowns and then barely crack the Top 12 in drafts at the position the following year? The disdain for Tannehill’s chances is odd but consistent. His auction price will be higher than the bargain-basement shoppers want to pay but lower than the top 7-8 quarterbacks. He is the perfect quarterback for you to be targeting in every auction you are in this summer.
Tom Brady - This is a tough one because there might be somebody in your draft who is high on Brady. If that's the case don't overpay or it ruins the point. But there is growing evidence that he can be had for low QB1 prices in auctions and he has the potential to deliver well beyond that. Unlike some other targets, it is wise to let people fill up their rosters with their starting QBs and try avoid having Brady be nominated for as long as possible. Either way, pay attention to the price on Brady as he's likely to be cheaper than the QBs being drafted around him. Last year Brady was banged up with a knee injury, was learning a new offense, and was adjusting to new receivers (including Antonio Brown coming in late in the year). Last season's 40 touchdowns through the air is achievable once again, and the upside is there for a monster season for Brady. See if you can land Brady for a discount.
Bargain Shopping
Kirk Cousins – It seems like Cousins has been a quarterback target for auction drafters since the beginning of time. But here he is again. He threw for what might be the quietest 35 touchdowns in recent memory, and though his wide receivers are both going off the board as Top 20 options, his price still lags in the mid-QB2 range. What is even better for auction drafters is that if you want to grab him as your QB1 he is only a few dollars ($5 Average Auction Value [AAV] right now) and has thrown for 30+ touchdowns in two of the last three seasons. That kind of value is hard to come by. He can be paired with a riskier option loaded with upside (see below) for the perfect auction quarterback combination.
Baker Mayfield – The Browns showed over the second half of the season what they could do after becoming more familiar with their new offense. After going through an unfortunate stretch of nasty winds and weather mid-season, Mayfield finished the year on fire with his strongest six-game fantasy stretch of the entire year. He isn’t super exciting as a fantasy prospect, but he should provide a rock-solid floor if you look for someone more volatile to capture some upside. The best part is that he should be available to you for $1-$3 in most auctions. Pairing him with Hurts, or one of the exciting rookies is a solid auction quarterback strategy.
Sam Darnold – The post-Adam Gase bump is, at least anecdotally, quite an interesting theory. Darnold goes to a team where he will have the best situation of his entire career. The coaching staff is offensively gifted, the Panthers offensive line is better, the scheme is more creative, and the skill position weapons are a massive improvement. Is there a chance Darnold simply isn’t going to develop into a good quarterback? Sure. But you can get him for $1 to see if he can have a post-Gase, Tannehill-like renaissance in Carolina.
Trey Lance/Justin Fields – Some auction drafters will be excited about the two rookies this year. If one of them is in your draft room, then shrug and move on. Paying too much for these guys who don’t have a starting job yet isn’t a sharp move. But if you can grab either one of them as your backup to a more stable starter, that’s how you should target them. While nobody knows when they’ll eventually hit the field, when they do, both guys are talented enough to be on the QB1 radar (Top 12) each week that they start. Those who rostered Justin Herbert last year, or Kyler Murray the year before, know that fantasy success from rookie quarterbacks is possible in the right situation. Neither Fields nor Lance will cost much in most auctions and could deliver a big boost to your roster. Keep in mind that it may cost more than the minimum $1-$2 to grab them as the hype is starting to build for both of them. But if you can get them for $5 or less it is a bet worth making.
The goal of quarterback bargain shopping in an auction is that you should be pushing the money saved at quarterback towards other top options at other positions. The best strategy would be to try and grab one of the Middle Tier targets first, but if they don’t go cheaply enough, play the waiting game for one of the floor guys like Cousins or Mayfield and pair them with them one of the exciting rookies. Chasing the Elite options is fine, but quarterback really should be the spot where you try to bank savings by getting top-12 production and talent on the cheap.
Tight Ends
The tight end landscape in 2021 is not markedly different than the way it looked before last season. Mark Andrews has dropped out of contention for the top tier as the targets didn’t materialize for him despite the Ravens getting rid of Hayden Hurst. Darren Waller has moved up with a second straight monster season for the Raiders and has passed George Kittle for the TE2 spot. But the general approach hasn’t changed. The play at tight end in an auction looks a little different than the one at quarterback because after the top three guys are off the board it doesn’t look like the middle tier holds enough value to demand that you spend too much for one of them. Instead, if you don’t grab one of Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, or George Kittle, wait until other drafters feel like they have what they want at the position and take one or two of the myriad of players who are capable of producing for your fantasy squad.
Keep in mind that in an auction the quarterback and tight end positions are treated differently than the running back and wide receiver spots. Allowing drafters to fill their starting spots, and even some teams to grab backups, is the way to see the market crater in time for you to get a couple of bargain-basement deals on guys who likely wouldn’t go that cheap when people still needed the spot filled. Additionally, plenty of leagues don’t require backups at these positions, so fantasy teams taking just one of each leaves a deep pool of players to choose from. Here are some tight ends that can finish off your auction squad with strength.
Elite Targets
T.J. Hockenson – Hockenson’s promising rookie season turned into a strong PPR TE5 finish in his sophomore campaign. There are plenty of reasons not to like Hockenson, and that’s understandable. He averaged barely 45 receiving yards per game in 2020, gets a downgrade at quarterback, and now finds himself on what may be a bad offense. But on the other hand, new quarterback Jared Goff is more prone to throw the ball short, the Lions don’t have many high-end receiving options, and their defense is likely to force Detroit into a lot of shoot-outs. Hockenson isn’t getting the love you’d expect a third-year tight end to get after a Top 5 fantasy season last year, but you can take advantage of that by trying to nab him at a reasonable price for what could be a 120+ target season.
Mark Andrews – Fantasy managers wanted Andrews to make a big leap after Hayden Hurst left last year. But the Ravens did the same thing in 2020 that they did in 2019. They split time with their tight ends and while Andrews did see a small increase in snaps, his per-game target number was almost the same. At this point, it is safe to say he is what we know him to be, and his role isn’t likely to change much. He won’t get a massive target number or be a threat for 80 catches, but he’ll be efficient and can hit double-digit touchdowns. Those expecting a big jump for Andrews last year are still feeling the residual disappointment and his draft price is showing it. Take advantage of that general attitude and see if there is a discount on Andrews in your auction.
Middle Tier Targets
Noah Fant – The second-year tight end was impressive last year, posting a 62/673 line despite scoring only three touchdowns. What is more impressive is that he left two games early and played a third without a quarterback. If you subtract those three games, Fant checked in as the PPR TE6 in points per game. Regardless of who wins the quarterback competition in Denver, things are at least as good as they were last year for the Broncos offense, and possibly better. Fant is still being drafted as a Top 10 tight end, but given his production last year, that seems to be his floor. Target him to see if you can get a reasonable price for a guy with Top 5 potential.
Tyler Higbee – Higbee lands on the target list for the second year in a row. With the departure of Gerald Everett, Higbee’s chances to produce are unquestionably better. Whether that translates into fantasy success or not is up for debate. The good thing for auction drafters is that his current AAV of $5 has dipped recently and is a small price to pay to see if an increase in opportunities is coming. If new quarterback Matthew Stafford increases the offensive potency for the Rams then Higbee is someone you should think strongly about drafting. He is cheap enough that you can easily back him up with someone else to mitigate some of the bust risk.
Bargain Shopping
Evan Engram – There seems to be a huge overcorrection to Engram’s value heading into 2021. How many tight ends can post over 60 catches and 600 yards find themselves being pushed down into TE2 range? The return of Saquon Barkley and the signing of Kenny Golladay will be competition for targets, but an offense that had just 11 passing touchdowns last year needs the benefit of those pieces to become more of a threat to score. Engram’s one measly receiving touchdown last year is part of the fantasy community’s negative view of him. Had he caught his career average of three touchdowns, he would have been the TE8 last year. He will cost $3 or less in most auctions and is a perfect late-round target that few people are interested in.
Cole Kmet - While Jimmy Graham is still in the picture and may vulture some red zone work, Kmet was already the starter in Chicago by the end of last season. His snap share spiked from a high of 47% in Week 9, to 70% in Week 10, and then it never fell below 78% the rest of the season. Over that same finishing stretch he also out-targeted Graham 36-21. This job is Kmet's and with a brighter quarterback situation, and Graham being a year older, the youngster has a real chance to make his move this year. His price is $1 or $2 in just about every draft and he's an excellent target at that price.
Zach Ertz - The Eagles haven't dealt Ertz yet, but even so he's being undervalued. He's being treated as though he's ancient, but he's just 30 years old, and if he sticks around in Philly he will play plenty and have more value than people are giving him credit for. But if he's traded, the possibilities can make him even more valuable. Late in an auction the best bets to make are those that have potential well beyond their price, and those that will define themselves early in the season. Ertz is both. He's not elite anymore, or close to it, but he's only $1 in auctions and that means he should be on your list of backups to target late in your draft.
Gerald Everett – Everett also makes this list for the second year in a row, but this time due to a move from Jared Goff to Russell Wilson. Over Wilson’s career, fantasy managers have watched him make some below-average tight ends into fantasy producers. Now Rams passing game coordinator Shane Waldron takes over the Seattle offense and it isn’t a coincidence that Everett finds himself in a Seahawks uniform. He’s a $1 player, dripping with upside, catching passes from Russell Wilson. Give Everett a shot at the end of your auctions.
Auction targets require you to be able to read the room, and the whole fantasy community, to figure out how to find value as you move through the draft. The main goal, however, is to remember that you win your leagues by getting deals on some of these targets while paying market value for the truly top-tier, sought-after players. If you pair both of those together, that is how you end up pushing your auction draft results over the top and making a run at a championship.