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I can’t count the number of screenshots I’ve seen of teams with players on bye *and* players that are injured. I can only imagine how rosters will look come playoff time. But, while you might be maneuvering through injuries, we’ve got benches to manage and decisions to make moving forward. There were quite a few box score disappointments in Week 6 and, to help, I’ve reviewed a few of the lessons learned from last week and my takeaways from each.

Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill, Titans

Week 6 Results: (Projected) 20.7, (Actual) 13.9

Over the past two seasons, Ryan Tannehill and Kirk Cousins have held similar fantasy profiles but Tannehill has been the better option. Both operate teams with low passing volume. Each has elite talents in their respective backfields. They even have top-rated talents as their primary receivers. But Tannehill’s been more consistent as a fantasy producer. He’s even shown a higher ceiling. At least until this season. Arthur Smith’s departure mixed in with injuries has dropped Tannehill to QB19 through a third of the season. I took a closer look at some of the underlying issues as there’s still a chance he can turn things around.

Advice Moving Forward:

Tannehill’s fantasy production is tied to the health of his offense. The efficiency is there but he’s a matchup-based starter at best until we see (at least) A.J. Brown at full strength.

The process wasn’t wrong in drafting Tannehill to start the season. As always, we work with the information we had at the time. Todd Downing was at least a part of the offensive staff (tight ends coach) with Arthur Smith that propelled the Titans’ offense into fantasy relevance. The team also added Julio Jones and Josh Reynolds while drafting an offensive lineman in the second round. All indications were that the status quo would be maintained. Downing just missed some of the nuances that made Tannehill comfortable in such a low-volume offense.

For the two seasons with Smith as offensive coordinator, Tannehill was second in EPA per play. He was also third in completion percentage over expected (CPOE). His efficiency made up for the Titans being bottom-7 in neutral passing both seasons. And part of the efficiency came from their use of play-action.

The effects of play-action cannot be understated. Especially when you have a monster like Derrick Henry to threaten linebackers and an accurate quarterback like Tannehill to execute the throw. The combination was so deadly, Tennessee used it on 33.7% of their plays over two years (league-high). It was good enough for Smith, but apparently, Downing didn’t catch the nuance.

An increase in play-action results in an increase in efficiency from Tannehill. Problem solved! But obviously, Tannehill’s fantasy totals haven’t matched. While the play-calling has evolved, Tannehill’s receiving corps has changed each week. Like in Week 4, when their play-action rate took a step back, Tannehill was relying on Josh Reynolds and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as his top receivers. Julio Jones hasn’t finished a full game since Week 2.

The offensive philosophy for Tennessee appears to be on the right track. But Tannehill needs his primary receivers back healthy. The next two weeks (KC and IND) are set up to be positive matchups for the passing game. If A.J. Brown is over his food poisoning, we can look to Tannehill as a solid option on a matchup basis moving forward.

Running Back: Nyheim Hines, Colts

Week 6 Results: (Projected) 10.1, (Actual) 3.2

The middle to late rounds of our drafts were filled with targets slated as "depth pieces". Players we could rely on once the bye weeks hit or if a bad matchup would push us off our typical starters. Nyheim Hines was a popular depth piece that held matchup-based appeal. He had been used in multiple roles last season with three multi-touchdowns games. But he’s found the paint just once this year. His snaps were cut to 23% in their blowout win over Houston. With bye weeks upon us, managers are left wondering if Hines will have the same utility as expected. After looking at his usage, I don’t think so.

Advice Moving Forward:

Hines is a non-essential hold through the bye weeks. Unless the Colts finally trade Marlon Mack, Hines’ week-to-week opportunity is difficult to project.

Let’s be honest. We weren’t drafting Hines to be a starter. He also didn’t necessarily fit the archetype most ZeroRB drafters look for in the late rounds. If something were to happen to Jonathan Taylor, he wouldn’t vault into the RB1 ranks like an A.J. Dillon or Darrel Williams. Hines is a role player. A pass-catching, third-down back with weekly standalone value. At least, that was the idea.

We drafted Hines for the role he had in 2020. Same scheme, same coaching staff, but different quarterback. And, in that scheme, Hines was the “James White” for the Colts. He garnered 41.2% of the third-down and two-minute touches between himself, Taylor, and Jordan Wilkins. We assumed the role would be there in 2021 and Marlon Mack wouldn’t be a factor. So far, Mack’s proven us wrong.

Give credit where it’s due. Mack’s return from an Achilles’ injury is remarkable. But his (and the Colts’) mutual agreement to seek a trade partner has torpedoed Hines’ critical role. And the timing of Mack’s bump in workload couldn’t be more obvious. Reports surfaced after Week 3 when the veteran back earned no touches after surprising everyone in Week 2. Since then, his usage on third downs and in the two-minute drill has increased each week. So, while the team showcases Mack, Hines continues to see less work.

Rumors about a deal with Kansas City have surfaced but nothing is imminent as of this writing. Regardless, until Mack’s departure, Hines can’t be confidently relied on for fantasy production. Bye weeks and injuries may force him into your lineups, but waiver wire adds should be your priority at this point.

Wide Receiver: Allen Robinson, Bears

Week 6 Results: (Projected) 11.6, (Actual) 9.3

Allen Robinson was considered to be “QB-proof” after spending years with Blake Bortles and Mitchell Trubisky. Justin Fields becoming the starter was lauded as Robinson’s best chance at having a functional quarterback under center. That sentiment has had a rough takeoff. Darnell Mooney has stolen the spotlight while Robinson (and almost every other pass-catcher) has had to live off the scraps of a small passing pie. However, last week gave me some hope for Robinson’s future as things may be changing for the better in Chicago.

Advice Moving Forward:

Robinson should be considered a low-end WR2 with limited upside. Folks rostering him should at least hold him for now as his peripherals showed improvement.

Let’s just forget Week 3 for the Bears offense ever happened. Since then, their neutral passing rate has increased each week (29.4% to 56.7%) while their yards per drive have fluctuated based on matchup. All to be expected for a rookie quarterback shackled by his coaching staff. But Fields’ battle with Matt Nagy (and himself as he adjusts to the NFL) has wreaked havoc on the passing game. Specifically, Allen Robinson’s usage.

Robinson’s yet to catch clear 75 yards in a game or catch a touchdown from Fields. His highest rank in PPR formats has been WR47. All the while, Darnell Mooney has been in the Top 24 twice. The sentiment might be to drop the wide receiver typically drafted in the third round, but there is some hope for the veteran receiver.

Robinson’s situation has clearly changed. He’s not the only viable option on his team. But the question shouldn’t be “Will Robinson supplant Mooney?”. It should be “Can the two receivers co-exist in the same offense with Robinson as the 1A?”. If you squint, and just look at Week 6, the answer to the second question is yes.

As I previously mentioned, Fields' neutral passing rate saw a dramatic increase last week against Green Bay. More volume led to more targets. And while the targets were the same for both receivers, Robinson saw nearly half of the team’s air yards. He did this while also earning five targets from the slot. In a game where Chicago was forced into a pass-heavy script, the intent (and air yards give us some sense of intent) was to get the ball to Robinson.

But it’s just one week which is why I’ve denoted him as a hold. Week 7 is the true test. Every team that’s faced Tampa Bay’s defense has gone well over their expected pass rate. We can already see another pass-heavy script for Chicago. If the usage holds, we’ve got a trend. A trend that can boost our expectations as their short-term schedule isn’t too scary (SF, PIT, BAL, and DET).