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It seems like we’ve learned more from each team after Week 4, but not enough to make any strong stances. The game plan for Justin Fields was a bit better last week but he still only had 17 attempts. Buffalo is 3-1 albeit their red-zone efficiency has dipped. Cincinnati’s passing more. Russell Wilson is passing less. We’re just getting pieces each week. Snapshots of how a team wants to approach their opponent. We’re only a month in but here are my lessons learned after Week 4.

Quarterback: Sam Darnold, Panthers

Week 4 Results: (Projected) 19.7, (Actual) 33.5

To be honest, I don’t think we really know how to value Darnold over the offseason. For the most part, it was a collective shrug by the fantasy community. On one hand, you had his three-year track record of being one of the most inefficient and inaccurate quarterbacks in the league. But, on the flipside, you had the "Joe Brady effect". Darnold would be getting D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson to pass to instead of Jamison Crowder and…Robby Anderson.

But, whether you think it’s because of his schedule, the upgraded personnel, or a combination of just those two things, Darnold’s having a career year. Three straight games over 300 passing yards isn't something you’ll find elsewhere on his PFR page. Regardless, fantasy managers should at least look at him as a bench stash as the bye weeks are nearly upon us.

Advice Moving Forward:

We can’t expect Darnold to hold the lead on rushing touchdowns, but he’s a top-16 option with top-6 upside if the matchup is right.

Darnold just notched a career-high in fantasy points. However, it’s fair to question what’s sustainable about his performance so far through the season. The rushing touchdowns are low-hanging fruit so his passing production takes center stage. He’s eclipsed 300 yards in three straight games. Thrown for multiple touchdowns in half of his starts. Weeks 1-3 highlighted the progress he’s made in his new surroundings. Week 4 showed he’s still got a ways to go.

Darnold throwing multiple interceptions in-game isn’t new but, to visualize my thoughts, I had to find the right game. A game with a similar flow against a similar defense where Darnold was pressed into throwing. Week 17 of last season fit the bill. Darnold faced pressure on 29.7% of his dropbacks against New England (34.8% on Sunday) with the game within one score at the half. An errant throw that turned into an interception led to the opposing team scoring pinning Darnold into a passing script. Afterward, it went from bad to worse.

Forcing throws that his arm talent can’t match has been a constant problem for Darnold. Off-target, into double or triple coverage, or a combination of the two has been the common descriptor when the ball starts to go the other way. But it only tends to happen when he’s asked to create out of structure. Or the game rides on his shoulders. A trait we can’t ask him to fix in just a month but we can at least note some improvement in his play.

Clean-pocket efficiency metrics are a simple way to gauge how quarterbacks perform in perfect conditions. For Darnold, he was negatively impacting the team even from a clean pocket. The throws were primarily short or the volume simply wasn’t there. The Jets' highest neutral passing rate was 21st throughout his entire tenure. Over 26.0% of his passes were at or behind the line of scrimmage. Clearly, the scheme and personnel upgrades have benefited him but Darnold himself has made strides forward as a passer.

Darnold’s neutral passing rate is 14th in the league. His short-term schedule (PHI, MIN, NYG, and ATL) at least suggests he won’t be in games similar to what the Panthers faced in Week 4. He’s throwing short and intermediate throws more than the previous year and Carolina employs play action at a higher rate. The concepts favor the passer and Darnold is fitting in well even without Christina McCaffrey. With more reps and less pressure, he’ll continue to shine.

Running Back: Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons

Week 4 Results: (Projected) 13.8, (Actual) 34.6

Cordarrelle Patterson is the most productive fantasy player on the Atlanta Falcons roster. A thirty-year-old kick returner/wide receiver turned running back on his fifth team is their fantasy MVP through four weeks.

Sure. Why not?

With nothing else working for Atlanta, a player we’ve known to be explosive in the past still has the juice to get past defenses. But the offense is clearly still in flux. Plus, Mike Davis still leads the backfield. Patterson’s point totals will certainly keep him on our radars but there’s some risk in going all-in on him as your weekly RB2.

Advice Moving Forward:

Hold or sell Cordarrelle Patterson. If another team is in a dire spot and could use the upside, flip Patterson for a stronger asset as the Falcons figure out his usage.

The team is 1-3 and last in the NFC South. Calvin Ridley is yet to crack 100 receiving yards in a game. Kyle Pitts does not appear poised to break any rookie records. By all accounts, Patterson has been the spark the team needed to get back into games. His ability to shift the defensive focus to himself has been noted in their last three games with great results in two of them. Well, great results for Patterson at least since the team still lost the game. But yet, we can’t even start projecting how much volume he should see. We’re still hoping he makes it onto the field.

Patterson’s been producing his gaudy boxscore numbers on minimal opportunity. Actually, not just minimal opportunity but reduced opportunity. After his two-touchdown performance in Week 2, his snaps bumped up. But, in Week 4, his snaps and rushing touches dropped below what he was seeing in Week 1. Think about that for a second. In a contest that was decided on the final possession, the same game Patterson scored three of the team’s four touchdowns, he played less. And it’s not like Patterson has been demonstrably worse.

Mike Davis has a 28.6% success rate on his carries (rate of positive EPA plays). Patterson has a 33.3% success rate as a rusher. The kick returner has also been used at every depth of the field in the passing game while Davis, who’s two years younger, has just been used near the line of scrimmage. Patterson has more fantasy points on the season than Matt Ryan. So, unless there’s a load management issue for the 30-year-old, we’re missing something here.

My only thought is that Arthur Smith is giving the scheme and concepts the team worked on throughout the offseason time to work. Adjusting because they’re losing may do more long-term damage than we know. Although, it’d buy Smith more time with the front office. Regardless, it’s possible getting Ridley and Pitts involved and established as the focal points is the focus. And it should be! However, if that’s the case, it’d be difficult to trust Patterson as an every-week option unless absolutely necessary.

Wide Receiver: D.J. Moore, Panthers

Week 4 Results: (Projected) 17.9, (Actual) 31.9

I’ve never written about two players from the same team in this article before, but I think they both deserved the attention. Moore’s been a polarizing player over the last two seasons. Whether it’s been quarterback play, depth of target, or even scoring touchdowns, there’s been some concern with his outlook. Robby Anderson was considered the value play. Plus, with Anderson’s old quarterback coming to Charlotte, it seemed like a lock that Moore would have another rollercoaster season. We were wrong. Through four weeks, Moore is the WR4 and, barring injury, doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. I dug into his usage and how we should value the Panthers’ primary receiver moving forward.

Advice Moving Forward:

D.J. Moore should be valued as a WR1 for the rest of the season. And, no, not just the WR1 on his team. A top-12 WR in the league.

The hype for Moore to get to this level was like when Amari Cooper came out of college. Cooper had the larger body of work from a more prominent school, but the predictors were there for Moore. Early breakout age, 80th-plus percentile athletic scores almost across the board, and a diverse route tree with the footwork to go with it. Even with Moore being injured his rookie season, he’s continually improved. But I don’t think "improved" is the right word. "Evolved" seems more apt.

As the offense has changed over the years (Cam Newton’s deteriorating arm, multiple backup quarterbacks, and a new coaching staff), so has Moore’s usage. He was pegged as the slot guy with Curtis Samuel running deep routes in 2019. Then Robby Anderson showed up and the roles flipped surprising all of us. But Moore continued to demand volume. He also capitalized on it.

Air yards by themselves is just a piece of the puzzle. We’ve seen plenty of players rack up a large amount of air yards without any production to go with them. But a drop in aDOT adds context. Those air yards can’t just be deep shots or 50/50 attempts. The reduction in slot rate also adds detail. Moore wasn’t collecting volume on high-percentage throws. But yet, his Yards per Route Run has increased since 2019. And now, given what we’ve seen over the first four weeks of the season, the results match what we had hoped for Moore all along.

Moore’s current efficiency and opportunity metrics looked so much like a top-12 wide receiver, I had to do a quick comparison.

Yes, it’s just one player. Adams is the player you’d want to be compared to, but I understand. Yes, it’s been just four weeks. However, this type of ascension isn’t fluky. If we all nod our heads at the phrase "targets are earned" then Moore’s continued stranglehold on the volume in Carolina shouldn’t be in question. He’s earned more work in the Panthers offense. More so, he’s earned a spot in the WR1 conversation in fantasy.