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The Top 10: Week 5

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 5
By Matt Waldman, October 12, 2020

The Top 10: Week 5
Photo: USA Today Sports

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

A good example is the recent James Conner-Benny Snell analysis. The pervading thought after last Monday night was that Snell outplayed James Conner. While Snell earned more playing time, played well, and out-produced Conner, the film didn't support the conclusion that Conner played poorly as much as his offensive line got off to a slow start and he suffered a minor ankle injury that concerned the team.

Snell may earn another opportunity to take the job from Conner as the season progresses but against the Broncos and Texans defenses, Conner did enough to keep his role as the feature back and the non-film narratives did not come to fruition. Based on the process of studying what makes a running back productive, Conner did nothing to lose his role to Snell.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy). Still, this work may help you make wiser decisions that will help your team in the long run.

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 5'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. Chase Claypool's four-touchdown performance was a testament to his burgeoning skill and more so, the Steelers scheme.
  2. Travis Fulgham had a career-day against Pittsburgh, but it was the Eagles' lapse of scheme consideration on both sides of the ball that was the difference in the game.
  3. Joe Burrow was hit 16 times by the Ravens and fantasy players should be concerned about his play declining, if not missing time.
  4. In contrast to Burrow, Lamar Jackson's line had fewer mental errors despite the Bengals front earning pressure and it reduced the potential for fatal errors.
  5. Henry Ruggs is healthy and serving notice that his 2020 NFL Draft class or receivers hasn't finished popping on the screen. Ruggs is a legitimate fantasy option.
  6. Raheem Mostert is healthy enough to count on.
  7. Jimmy Garoppolo might not be healthy enough to count on, although I think it would be an excuse for what's already ingrained throwing behavior.
  8. Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham are propping up Baker Mayfield almost as much as the Browns offensive line.
  9. Alexander Mattison and Mike Boone are capable of fantasy production. Mattison will get the consistent shots whereas Boone is a Fantasy Points Microwave.
  10. This week's Fresh Fish:
    1. Philip Rivers: His arm is weak and his decisions have been declining for the past 2-3 seasons.
    2. Jim Schwartz: Philadelphia's defensive coordinator let a linebacker cover a wide receiver who already scored three touchdowns in a pivotal moment of the game.
    3. Atlanta's linebackers and secondary: Healthy but still bad against the pass.
    4. Bengals offensive line.
    5. Daniel Jones; The Cowboys defense made Baker Mayfield productive and Jones couldn't exploit them.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Chase Claypool Is Good; the Steelers' Scheme Is Better

Claypool's four-touchdown performance against the Eagles made a lot of fantasy players happy and it will surely raise expectations in the community that he's a reliable option. Thanks to the Steelers' offensive staff, Claypool sustaining production throughout the season should be a reality.

Pittsburgh fed Claypool a varied diet of quick-hitters against off-coverage, aligned him inside and behind bunched receivers, and used him as a perimeter runner. Credit the rookie for knowing his assignments and executing them—it's an important and underrated first step for a first-year player with this diverse of a role. At the same time, you'll also notice opportunities for further kill refinement embedded within his execution of each play that could lead to down weeks against a higher level of competition.

Claypool dominated the Steelers' offense with a combined touches and targets total of 14 when he hasn't seen more than 4 all season. Could it become a trend? If it does, Claypool will finish the year as a fantasy WR1.

However, Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are too accomplished to see a drastic decline in workload every week. The nature of the play calls suggests the Steelers counted heavily on Claypool as part of the game plan and possibly due to Smith-Schuster's lingering injuries and Johnson leaving the contest with a back injury (he's day-to-day).

The green zone touchdown on the wide receiver throw-out split James Conner and a tight end outside as part of the bunch set and that's a future tip-off for the defense. The end arounds will be scouted as well. Claypool will continue to have strong weeks, but don't expect him to become the de facto primary option.

2. Travis Fulgham Is Useful; Especially When the Eagles Figure Out How

While not as promising an athlete as Claypool, Fulgham figures into the Eagles plans as at least a temporary primary option due to the team's rash of injuries.

Fulgham was one of the featured Add-Now/Use options in Week 5's The Replacements feature. By the way, six of the eight players touted during the first five weeks have come through. With positive tests increasing, it's worth checking this feature out late in the week when waiver wires can be barren.

One of the reasons I recommended him was his usage. Although the overall production was small, the Eagles' decison to align Fulgham in sets that would earn him one-on-one opportunities in Week 4 portended a bigger role in Week 5.

Fulgham earned 13 targets, 10 catches, 152 yards, and a touchdown as an occasional matchup draw against single coverage but mostly as a big slot who could win two-way-go's against slot defenders who aren't as physical as perimeter players.

From a statistical perspective, the Eagles knew how to get production from Fulgham. However, the staff lost its mental edge at game's end when it failed to take what Fulgham had done successfully during the first 55 minutes and apply it to the final 5. To compound the problem, the Eagles staff failed to apply what it learned about Chase Claypool to its coverage of the receiver at game's end.

Fulgham used his size well, took advantage of the coverage mismatches and gaps that the Steelers gave him, and his execution was consistent. There's still a significant portion of the season to determine if he becomes the NFC East's next Miles Austin, but he's worth adding to your rosters to find out.

3. Joe Burrow And the Bengals Line Were Carrion for an Unkindness of Ravens

This summer, I suggested that Tua Tagovailoa was in a more enviable position for fantasy players when considering a stretch-run of fantasy production in 2020. The basis of the argument was the lack of veteran leadership at quarterback in Cincinnati and most importantly, the Bengals fielding a bad offensive line.

As good as Burrow is, any quarterback can go from genius to fool with a steady stream of pressure.

Burrow took 16 hits during the Ravens game—14 of them in 2.5 quarters. The Bengals let pressure arrive from every angle, leading to strip sacks, impossible down-and-distance challenges, and punishment that, if it continues, could undermine Burrow's skill to manage a pocket with poise.

Fortunately for Burrow, he maintained his poise all but once (as seen above) during a rough outing. Still, this pressure could have a long-term detriment to his career if it begins happening weekly. As shown above, one of the biggest issues with the Bengals line is mental. Much of the pressure is interior pressure that arrives due to a busted assignment or poor communication and rapport among the linemen and backs.

This is fixable. The faster, the better because Cincinnati has invested too much to ruin a promising quarterback.

4. Lamar Jackson Had a Sub-Par Game But His Offensive Line Saved Him

The Ravens weren't the only team on the field earning pressure with routine success. Carl Lawson and company stopped several Ravens drives in this game. If rookie linebacker Logan Wilson had hands (he'd be a tight end), he'd would have finished the game with a pair of interceptions as a result of the Cincinnati's pressure.

Still, the Ravens won handily and despite the pressure Baltimore's offensive line didn't blow assignments to allow it into the pocket. As a result, Lamar Jackson knew where the pressure would arrive and had the ability to execute a plan in ways Burrow had no shot.

When a quarterback knows that a specific rusher will be his responsibility it makes the pressure far more manageable. When the Bengals figure this out for Burrow, they'll be competitive more often.

5. Henry Ruggs Is Serving Notice That He's a Fantasy Contributor

Ruggs is no Tyreek Hill, but Santana Moss is a worthwhile aspirational comparison for the Raiders' rookie. Although Moss' career stats may not have the consistent highs that most expect from Hill at this point, ability-wise they aren't as far away as it would seem to some.

Ruggs returned from injury on Sunday and put on a show as a vertical weapon. The fact he won the ball in convincing fashion with his first target put the league on notice that he's more than a Ted Ginn Jr, Jr. type where he can only be counted on to catch the targets he can run under in stride.

With Nelson Agoholor and Darren Waller performing admirably in the passing game, including occasiona vertical targets, Ruggs will be harder for opponents to take away without paying dearly. .

6. Raheem Mostert Is Healthy Enough to Count on

Mostert broke off a pair of explosive runs early in the Dolphins game before the contest became a complete blowout. However, both runs benefitted from blocking that allowed Mostert to go untouched for significant parts of play and there wasn't anything sophisticated about Mostert's part with setting up the creases.

This run is a better indication of Mostert's health status and readiness to mix it up as the team's starter.

As long as the defense can find its way back to good production to maintain favorable game scripts for his offensive line to open holes, Mostert should deliver steady fantasy production as no worse than a low-end RB2 even if quarterback play remains a problem. See below.

7. Jimmy Garoppolo's Health Is An Excuse for His Long-Standing Pocket Yips

Garoppolo threw two first-half interceptions after making his return from an ankle injury that he sustained earlier in the month. Garoppolo failed to set his feet on both throws and neither pass arrived anywhere close to the target, prompting Kyle Shanahan to bench Garoppolo at halftime.

It's possible that Garoppolo and the team will attribute the inaccuracies to the injury and Garoppolo lacking confidence in his healed body. I won't be buying it.

Garoppolo has had a longstanding habit of overcompensating his throwing mechanics to avoid contact from pressure. At Eastern Illinois, Garoppolo would often turtle from the "perceived threat of pressure." Another way of saying this: Garoppolo would duck and cover or rush his release while catching the blur of a jersey 3-5 steps away from the point where most quarterbacks would react.

Garoppolo rarely has the duck-and-cover overreactions that he did in college. However, he has made it a habit not to follow-through in a traditional manner as a thrower and it can hamper his accuracy more often than it should.

This issue hurt Garoppolo's production on Sunday and the examples above were the milder examples. It's possible Kyle Shanahan his growing concerned. In contrast to Garoppolo's yips, Dolphins Ryan Fitzpatrick has been beat up more times than the 49ers quarterback has ever experienced and Fitzpatrick tries to step into throws where pressure is bearing down.

I would not be surprised if the 49ers aren't the most disappointing team in the NFL by season's end. There are a lot of good units on this team and an excellent offensive mind as its head coach. However, San Francisco let its most complete receiver walk this winter and has a quarterback who is threatening to prove that he's a lot more style than substance.

8. Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Are Propping up Baker Mayfield

Baker Mayfied's progress report from a few weeks ago noted that the Browns' offense was making his life easier, but his overall improvement remains to be seen and there haven't been enough tests. So far, it's becoming clear that the offense is creating great opportunities for wide receivers Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr. but it asks a lot of them in return because Mayfield isn't timely or accurate in specific situations that could cost this team against tough competition later in the year.

Even the play positive attributed to Mayfield was a snap where Mayfield misses the easier choice.

Browns fans, including the one writing this article, are happy to see the team 4-1, and Mayfield hasn't cost the squad a shot at victory since the Ravens game. However, if the expectation for a franchise quarterback is playoff victories, Mayfield got away with errors against the Colts in October that won't be as likely against contenders in January.

Don't expect too many 300-yard games from Mayfield this year and puts a ceiling on Landry and Beckham's outputs with the exception of an occasional deep target or run. Cleveland's offense is dynamic, but it's fantasy options in the passing game isn't.

9. Alexander Mattison Is the Convection Oven; Mike Boone Is the Microwave

Jene Bramel lists Dalvin Cook as Day-to-Day with a left groin strain. However, the potential range of severity with the injury that will require additional evaluation could lead to two weeks of rehab, opening the door for Alexander Mattison and Mike Boone.

Mattison has a far more traditional style of running than Cook. He's bigger, pushes through linebackers and safeties, and his game is more about burst than top speed. It doesn't take long for him to start cooking, but he's more reliant on a workload of touches to get into a rythm.

Boone is a lot like a microwave who can heat up fast. Built low to the ground and possessing notable burst, Boone spends most of his time on special teams and isn't as versatile or as cerebral of a runner as Mattison but often makes the most of his touches.

Think of Boone as a back who could deliver fantasy RB1 highs on 4-6 touches, but his production baseline and floor is much lower than Mattison who should earn most of the touches. Mattison will have explosive runs but he's more of a grind-it-out option who can create elegant solutions to problems.

10. Fresh Fish: Week 5

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd loving nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: Philip Rivers

Rivers has helped guide the Colts to a 3-2 record but the team is playing small-ball and it wanted Rivers to jump-start an explosive passing game. Many will cite the injuries to receivers Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell, but T.Y. Hilton isn't struggling solely due to age.

As was the case with Rivers in Los Angeles, he no longer throws the ball with the same strength and velocity he once had. He's also making questionable decisions under pressure that cost him multiple games with the Chargers.

Rivers' mind and leadership for the game is still strong but his ability to execute is failing fast and a big reason this offense has contracted in style.

On to the rest of the Fresh Fish...

  1. Falcons defense: Even a healthier unit gave up nearly 300 yards of passing in one half of play. Head Coach Dann Quinn has been fired as a result.
  2. Jim Schwartz: The Eagles' defensive coordinator watched Chase Claypool earn three touchdowns in 55 minutes of play but didn't put a corner on the rookie late in the contest, giving up game-sealing touchdown No.4.
  3. The Bengals offensive line: 16 hits on its aspiring franchise quarterback is a danger to the career the player's career if this repeats itself multiple times during the year.
  4. Daniel Jones: I tried to imagine the possibility that the Cowboys defense was bad enough to wait to sell Jones high after this game. Despite the Giants scoring 34 points, Jones didn't score a touchdown, he took two sacks, and lost a fumble that set up a touchdown. Mayfield scored two touchdowns against the Cowboys last week...Mayfield!

Thanks again for all of your feedback with this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
Tags Analysis Odell Beckham Jr Mike Boone Joe Burrow Parris Campbell Chase Claypool James Conner Dalvin Cook Ryan Fitzpatrick Travis Fulgham Jimmy Garoppolo Tyreek Hill T.Y. Hilton Kareem Hunt Lamar Jackson Diontae Johnson Daniel Jones Jarvis Landry Carl Lawson Allen Lazard Patrick Mahomes II Alexander Mattison Baker Mayfield Raheem Mostert Bobby Okereke Michael Pittman Jr Patrick Queen Henry Ruggs III Matt Ryan Darius Slay JuJu Smith-Schuster Benny Snell Jr. Tua Tagovailoa Darren Waller Logan Wilson

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