Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 Stars, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
It proved to be a wild Week 14, with several games tilting the opposite way to how many would have expected. The Giants’ loss to the Cardinals stands out as a cautionary tale. Entering the week, the G-Men had been showered with praise by everyone who mattered in the media; on Sunday, the air was taken out of that balloon in an instant. It is tempting to get drawn in by narratives, but sometimes the Vegas line – in this case, Arizona by 2.5 on the road – should have been a warning sign. The men in the desert don’t always get it right, but they have a sixth sense for these things. A personal record of 6-10 means there is some work to do, but this column still has an overall ATS winning percentage of 54% this season.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) LA CHARGERS at LAS VEGAS (-3.5) (Over/Under 53)
The Chargers finally got over the hump, thanks in part to some well-timed Atlanta turnovers in the dying embers of a game that meant nothing. But for an under-pressure Anthony Lynn, it was a much-needed breath of fresh air and perhaps a life raft as questions continue to mount over his in-game management. Justin Herbert may have cooled off in recent weeks, but his eyes should light up in his film preparation ahead of Thursday night’s clash with a Raiders defense that just witnessed its coordinator get fired.
The Raiders are not dead yet, but the path is difficult at 7-6 and the momentum has stalled for Jon Gruden’s once upwardly mobile unit. Defensive frailties have played a major part in the slide, so the 3.5-point line seems a little suspect. The high total is a fair representation of what could be an old-fashioned shootout between Herbert and Derek Carr. In such games, the prudent choice is often to take that extra half-point and see how it all plays out. There is always the chance Las Vegas gets the fabled ‘fired coach bump’ on defense, but that is hard to count on.
Pick: Los Angeles
(Saturday) BUFFALO (-6.5) at DENVER (Over/Under 50)
The Broncos have gone 8-5 ATS this season as the underdog, so this is a spot that Vic Fangio’s team is more than comfortable in. Since the Bills’ comprehensive second-half undressing of the Steelers, in fact, the line has jumped a point in the visitors’ favor and all signs point to yet another Josh Allen clinic on Saturday. The carrot for the Bills at this point is a chance at the number two seed, but the new playoff system means there will be no bye week for that team. Still, Sean McDermott is not likely to allow his team’s focus to slip.
Drew Lock’s performance against Carolina should buoy the hopes of Denver fans, but Carolina’s secondary was hopelessly overmatched at times. The receiving corps at Lock’s disposal, however, rivals that of Buffalo on its best day and there could be opportunities for the young passer to exploit downfield. There is just enough feistiness in Denver’s front seven to give Allen trouble, so the lean here goes to the Broncos at home.
Pick: Denver
(Saturday) CAROLINA at GREEN BAY (-8.5) (Over/Under 51.5)
The second Saturday clash sees the stuttering Panthers take on the NFC’s current number one seed Packers in what should be a suitably frigid Lambeau Field. The Saints’ stumble last week, combined with a Green Bay victory, vaulted Matt LaFleur’s team into the top seed. With Aaron Rodgers playing at an MVP level, there is little reason to believe they will cede that territory in the final weeks, especially not against a Carolina outfit that cannot seem to pull out close games.
The problem for Matt Rhule’s team this week, of course, is that it may not even be all that close. Carolina has covered 70% of the time as the underdog this season, even taking the Chiefs all the way to the wire, but that was a different team. With Christian McCaffrey likely to miss another game, the onus will be on a cold Teddy Bridgewater to summon up something special. That is not a game script the Panthers want.
Pick: Green Bay
SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) at DALLAS (Over/Under 45)
According to the New York Times’ playoff model, the Cowboys have a 1% shot at making it to the dance. It has been a forgettable season for Jerry Jones’ team, though embattled first-year head coach Mike McCarthy has been assured of his position heading into 2021 despite appeals for him to be ousted from some sections of the fanbase. The Cowboys took care of business last week against Cincinnati, but the scoreline was flattering. The 49ers may not be world-beaters, but their offense can provide a bit more punch to trouble the home team.
Kyle Shanahan’s team is not out of the hunt yet, owing to the rather crowded field in the race for the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs. Nick Mullens continues to be a serviceable option, but turnovers still plague his game and undo many of the good plays he makes. The 49ers may keep it simple in this game, asking Mullens to hand the ball off and relying on a ball-control strategy to wear out a Cowboys defense that has been routinely flummoxed this season. In what is something of a toss-up game, the 49ers look like the right side.
Pick: San Francisco
SEATTLE (-6) at WASHINGTON (Over/Under 44.5)
According to Jene Bramel, the calf injury for Alex Smith makes him questionable at best for Week 15, meaning that Ron Rivera will have to rely on Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. The line moved three points in Seattle’s favor based on that news, and it is hard to blame the Vegas experts on that front. Haskins has been poor for the Football Team and Rivera will likely ask a lot of his defense – once again – to keep the offensive game plan safe for the error-prone passer.
But playing complementary football of this kind with Russell Wilson on the other side is difficult to sustain. A victory in Washington would rubberstamp a playoff spot for the Seahawks, so Pete Carroll’s men will be highly motivated. There have been some signs of life from Seattle’s defense over recent weeks, so the script could very well be flipped in this game if Haskins is forced to drop back time and again. The match-up of Wilson against the red-hot Washington defense is the key battle. The Football Team has gone 3-1 ATS as the home underdog this season, but the Haskins factor is too much to ignore.
Pick: Seattle
CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (-3) (Over/Under 46)
The Bears made short work of a putrid Texans defense last week, a unit that can even make Mitchell Trubisky look like a confident and poised passer. Matt Nagy’s team would need to win out to have a realistic chance at making the postseason, but anything is possible in this wild Covid-19 season. The original line on this game was Minnesota by six points, so it seems Vegas has reacted to the Bears’ win – or perhaps to the Vikings’ disappointing loss to the Bucs.
Minnesota’s path to the postseason looks like a daunting one, with the visit to New Orleans in Week 16 the major sticking point. The woes of Dan Bailey in Tampa Bay last week cost many bettors a cover, with points left on the field. Kirk Cousins and the offense performed better than many would have expected against a stubborn Bucs defense, so the Bears should not be of too much concern. If Dalvin Cook gets into gear, this -3 line move will look silly in retrospect.
Pick: Minnesota
NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI (-2.5) (Over/Under 41.5)
Even with additional time to prepare, it is difficult to foresee a comeback from the Patriots after a lackluster display against the Rams last Thursday. Cam Newton remains an ineffective passer, and if teams can build a lead against the 2020 Patriots the game is essentially over. The fun storyline of this clash is the mentor versus mentee battle between Bill Belichick and Brian Flores, with the latter needing a win here to keep his team’s playoff hopes alive.
The performance against Kansas City will give the Dolphins a lot of encouragement, but encouragement does not equate to winning ball games – and that is exactly what Miami needs to do down the stretch. According to the New York Times’ playoff model, the Dolphins have a 48% chance of making the postseason, but they face tough outings against the Raiders and Bills after this one. Tua Tagovailoa continues to show development, despite his receiving corps being depleted due to injury. The lack of faith in New England means there is only one way to go, especially before the number goes to -3.
Pick: Miami
JACKSONVILLE at BALTIMORE (-13) (Over/Under 46)
The Jaguars will go back to the Gardner Minshew well in Baltimore this week, presumably to finish out the season with a flourish and not the whimper that Mike Glennon has provided in recent weeks. Granted, Glennon has not been a terrible option, but Minshew provides a spark that the veteran passer simply cannot. The Jacksonville defense will have to be on its toes to defend the various looks that the Baltimore ground game will throw at them.
Baltimore’s dramatic victory on Monday night in Cleveland has them firmly in the playoff race once again, with their chances at approximately 76% according to the New York Times’ playoff model. The fourth quarter was like something from an epic story, with Lamar Jackson returning for the crucial moments to deliver a dagger, and Justin Tucker providing the coup de gras. There will likely be fewer high-octane moments when Jacksonville comes to town, however, so expect to see Trace McSorley by the fourth quarter.
Pick: Baltimore
TAMPA BAY (-6) at ATLANTA (Over/Under 51)
Incredibly, the line for this game opened at Bucs by -1.5, only for money to come pouring in on the visitors to the point that they are now six-point favorites. If history is any indicator, points should be plentiful in this NFC South tilt; the over has hit in the last four meetings, and in seven of the last eight. As such, the total of 51 looks a little light and could be the best angle of attack. Speaking of angles of attack, the Bucs took it to the Vikings on Sunday and, with the help of a few missed kicks, managed to get the expected victory to put them in prime position for the playoffs. The trip to Atlanta represents yet another opportunity to build positive momentum and, crucially, to Tom Brady more in sync with his receiving corps.
Atlanta’s season continues to slowly circle the drain despite the best efforts of Raheem Morris to rally the troops in the post-Dan Quinn era. Could these be the final games in the career of Matt Ryan as a Falcon, or is the talk of a franchise reset going a little bit too far? There are many questions surrounding the future direction of the team. With Julio Jones likely to miss out again, the offense takes a hit, but Ryan is more than capable of duking it out with Brady in an arms race. The six points look too tempting to turn down, though the ‘over’ is the preferred angle.
Pick: Atlanta
DETROIT at TENNESSEE (-10.5) (Over/Under 51.5)
The line move from -8.5 to -10.5 would lead us to believe that the Lions will be without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford for this game, putting Chase Daniel at the controls of the attack. Daniel showed well in his limited snaps last week and can at least harness the talents of his receivers to keep this game competitive. After all, there is little reason to fear the Titans defense, a unit that has made a habit of surrendering points for fun this season.
Tennessee’s chances to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times’ playoff model, stand at 94%. In other words, it is all about seeding at this point. In the final analysis, the difference between Tennessee taking the division title and a wild card berth is not that significant in terms of potential opponents. Derrick Henry is currently at 1,532 yards, meaning he would need 156 yards per game for the final three to hit the 2,000 mark, a personal milestone that the Titans may try to furnish him with. Tennessee should get the job done here, but 10.5 is a little steep, even against Detroit.
Pick: Detroit
HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS (-7) (Over/Under 52.5)
The Colts have only covered one of their last four games at Lucas Oil Stadium; however, they have won and covered in each of the last five meetings with this week’s opponent Houston. Advantage, Indianapolis. Frank Reich’s team really got into a groove offensively last week against a Swiss cheese Raiders defense, and they will expect to keep up the momentum against Houston, arguably a defense of lesser quality. The clash between these teams a couple of weeks ago came down to a final play, a shocking fumble close to the goal line that saved the Colts' skin.
Deshaun Watson showed his typical grit in the loss to Chicago last week, but the defense put him into a hole that he simply could not climb out of. The athletic passer is likely to find more joy indoors on an artificial surface, though, so expect him to give the Colts defense all it can handle. With Jonathan Taylor likely to dice up the Texans on the ground, though, it will be a bridge too far for Watson. The seven-point line gives some pause, but the Colts are clearly the superior team – and they will show it.
Pick: Indianapolis
PHILADELPHIA at ARIZONA (-6.5) (Over/Under 48)
The Eagles have never won back-to-back games against the spread this season, an indication of their inconsistency. After a rousing victory over the Saints last week, the Eagles’ path is simple: win out and hope that your division rivals lose, culminating in a division title at 7-8-1. Jalen Hurts injected some much-needed continuity into the offense last week, extending drives with his legs and creating a bit of magic here and there. Miles Sanders should get plenty of work, as Doug Pederson looks to ease Hurts into the game in his first road start. Philadelphia’s defense is more than capable of corralling Kyler Murray, though, and the 6.5-point spread looks a little generous to the Cardinals.
As things stand, the Cardinals have about a 50% chance of making the postseason. Kliff Kingsbury’s team can take nothing for granted, considering the skid they had been on entering last week’s game in New Jersey. Something of an enigma defensively, a performance like last week’s would go a long way to securing a victory. Flustering Hurts from the outset could lead to mistakes from the rookie passer and would lay the groundwork for Murray to go to work. The under appeals in this game as Philadelphia have gone under 6-1 in their last seven, while Arizona has gone 8-4-1 to the under this season.
Pick: Philadelphia
NY JETS at LA RAMS (-17) (Over/Under 44)
The Rams have gone 9-4 to the under in 2020 but relying on that trend might be a little risky this time with the Jets coming to town. Though Adam Gase’s team has covered in four of the last seven games, they remain winless overall and will provide little resistance for Sean McVay’s well-rested team. Indeed, the victory over the Patriots was so comprehensive that Jared Goff needed to do little in the second half as Cam Akers took over proceedings. The rookie back showed off his blend of skills last time out and should have similar opportunities to hammer at the Jets’ front seven.
The 17-point line is one of the largest of the season, so the advice would be not to bet this one against the spread. If you had to, go for the road team. Sam Darnold is, after all, likely playing for his future – and perhaps his new team – so he will not lay down his sword so easily. The Rams should waltz to a victory that will clinch them a playoff berth.
Pick: New York
KANSAS CITY (-3) at NEW ORLEANS (Over/Under 51.5)
The Chiefs have been stacking wins of late, but they have failed to cover in their last five games. Some of that is down to the points spread tax that Vegas assesses on them; some of it, however, may also be a little chink in the armor. There is a sense that, when required, this team can go into hyperdrive and rack up points with ease. At some point, however, recovering from deficits becomes too tough to overcome – even with Patrick Mahomes II.
The Saints may be without Drew Brees this week, but the Taysom Hill offense may be better suited to take on the Chiefs. A ball-control attack featuring Hill carrying the football often, with dashes of quick passing and Alvin Kamara, could flummox the Chiefs defense just enough to keep Mahomes off the field for extended periods. Defensively, the Saints are a match for any offense and may be the best-equipped unit yet this season to slow down the Chiefs passer. The line moved slightly from Chiefs by -3.5 to Chiefs by -3, so money is coming in on the Saints, who have everything to prove after an unexpected loss last week. The number one seed is still there to be won if they can stay hot down the stretch, and the expectation is that they can keep this close.
Pick: New Orleans
(Sunday Night) CLEVELAND (-3.5) at NY GIANTS (Over/Under 45)
Despite the blip last week, the Giants have gone 7-2-1 in their last 10 games ATS and are winners of four of their last five. All is not yet lost, in other words, for Joe Judge’s team. The toughest task will be to motivate the team with three tough games remaining on the schedule, starting this week against the Browns. Daniel Jones’ health will be a huge talking point coming into this contest, with some reports suggesting that he could be benched for Colt McCoy. One game behind Washington in the NFC East, only a victory will do for the G-Men.
It is more primetime spotlight for the Browns – and undoubtedly, they are enjoying their moment in the sun after so many years in the doldrums. This line has shifted in Cleveland’s favor, with some books listing it at -4. The prevailing feeling, therefore, is that the Giants are cooked and there is no coming back. However, this is a decent bounce-back spot for the home team and their defense could give Baker Mayfield fits if they can get into an early groove. So much depends on the health of Jones, however, so the safest play is to lay the points.
Pick: Cleveland
(Monday Night) PITTSBURGH (-12.5) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 40.5)
The Steelers are 10-0 straight up and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 regular-season meetings with the Bengals, so this is a happy hunting ground for a team that desperately needs a victory. A bye week is still a possibility but having dropped two straight games it is a remote one. As much as anything else, this game represents a chance for the AFC powerhouse to get back on track with a get-well win in front of a national audience.
Cincinnati’s season ended in Washington the second Joe Burrow was injured, so the focus must be on next season and building for the future. Zac Taylor’s men could provide some resistance in the early exchanges of this clash, but the likelihood is that Pittsburgh will rack up the points and ask Brandon Allen to produce something spectacular.
Pick: Pittsburgh
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
It proved to be a disappointing week for the Best Bets, with a 1-3 finish. With lines getting more efficient as the weeks go by, however, we must remain focused and stick to the process. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 MIAMI (-2.5) vs. NEW ENGLAND
- 2 NEW ORLEANS (+3) vs. KANSAS CITY
- 3 INDIANAPOLIS (-7) vs. HOUSTON
- 4 PHILADELPHIA (+6.5) at ARIZONA
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 15 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM, 6-PT DOUBLE (0.82-1 ODDS)
- PHILADELPHIA (+12.5)
- INDIANAPOLIS (-1)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG (7-1 ODDS):
- LA CHARGERS – FOR THE WIN
- ATLANTA – FOR THE WIN
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 4-TEAM ATS/SU SPECIAL (4-1 ODDS)
- MIAMI (-2.5)
- NEW ORLEANS (+3)
- BALTIMORE – FOR THE WIN
- GREEN BAY – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Miami, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Minnesota
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 6-10
- SEASON OVERALL: 109-94-3 (54%)
- BEST BETS: 31-24-1, last week 1-3 (56.7%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 37-33-1, last week 1-4 (53.1%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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