Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Favorites went 6-8 against the spread in Week 7 as the pattern of underdogs showing pluck continued. There were several exploitable lines last week, in fact, which led to a personal record of 8-6. Week 8 has its share of fascinating numbers to dive in to, so let’s take a look.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) ATLANTA at CAROLINA (-3) (Over/Under 49)
The Falcons continue to find new and more crushing ways to lose games, with the last-second Lions victory carrying with it almost a sense of inevitability despite the odds. These teams played just three weeks ago, with the Panthers pulling out a road win, though that was Atlanta without Julio Jones. Carolina’s cornerbacks have been inconsistent this season, and with nothing to lose at 1-6 the Falcons should fancy that match-up.
Teddy Bridgewater may have something to say about that, however. The offense has been humming under the stewardship of the former Vikings and Saints quarterback, his connection with Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore bearing fruit every week. The Panthers, notably, are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games and have kept games close. On a short week, the home team usually gets the edge, but the -3 creates a bit of hesitation in what is a clash of very even teams from a talent perspective.
Pick: Atlanta
PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE (-3.5) (Over/Under 46.5)
The highlight of the early window games sees the undefeated Steelers take on the well-rested Ravens in a game that could decide who wins the AFC North. Pittsburgh have been dominant defensively this season, with the offense doing enough to build a lead and allow the likes of T.J. Watt and others to hunt. Pittsburgh’s defense should like its chances of causing some havoc in the backfield for the complex Baltimore rushing attack, and to tattoo Lamar Jackson with a few hits. The Steelers have covered four games in a row, and five out of six overall. There will be the revenge factor, too, as the Ravens swept the Steelers in 2019.
The fascinating part of the line is not only that Baltimore are favorites, but that extra half-point on their side. What Vegas is saying is that on a neutral field, Baltimore would still be slight favorites. Certainly, one could make the case that Baltimore has the tools in its arsenal to give Pittsburgh problems, but given the Steelers’ recent track record, it is hard to go against them. Take that half-point if you can still get it.
Pick: Pittsburgh
LA RAMS (-3.5) at MIAMI (Over/Under 49)
The Rams flipped the script on the Bears on Monday night, showcasing the might of their defense when many of the pundits coming in were showering praise on Chicago’s. At 5-2, the path is there for Los Angeles to put a run together and, if not win the NFC West outright, at least secure a playoff spot. The Rams are 12-9 (57.1%) against the spread as the road favorite under Sean McVay and have not been too put out by coast to coast trips. The short week is a mark against them, however.
Making the Rams’ task more difficult is the fact that Tua Tagovailoa will be making his first start for the Dolphins. This works both ways, of course, as the rookie’s inexperience could play right into the Rams’ hands. There is no professional tape on the top-10 pick, so it will be fascinating to see how the Rams choose to play him. On the Miami side, the body language of offensive players will be telling after the benching of Ryan Fitzpatrick. The +3.5 is too tempting to turn down here, even with the uncertainty at quarterback.
Pick: Miami
NY JETS at KANSAS CITY (-19.5) (Over/Under 48.5)
In what could be the season’s largest spread, the Chiefs are favored by 19.5 points against the lowly Jets – and you can’t really blame Vegas for that. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 in their last four against the spread versus losing teams. Moreover, they are 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 home games. In simple terms, you cannot go wrong betting Andy Reid’s team, though the line may be drawn at this large of a number.
Interestingly, money has started to come in on the Jets, with the opening line set at 21 points. Perhaps these bettors are overrating the bump the team will get from having Sam Darnold start a second consecutive game? Or perhaps it is simply that since the beginning of the 2003 season, favorites of 20 or more points are just 1-3 against the spread. There is comfort in the numbers, of course, but also in the chasm talent-wise between these teams. I trust the Chiefs, who put up 43 points in a snowstorm, to deliver on Sunday.
Pick: Kansas City
MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY (-6.5) (Over/Under 54.5)
A bye week will have done nothing to allay the fears surrounding the circling of the drain that has summed up the Vikings’ season. The trading away of Yannick Ngakoue shows clarity on one hand from the Minnesota brass, but their franchise quarterback Kirk Cousins may be on thin ice by his own admission. A trip to Green Bay will do little to assuage the concerns of those in purple. The Vikings summoned up a valiant effort in Seattle a couple of weeks ago. It would take a similar effort to stay with the Packers in Lambeau.
Interestingly, the Packers have fared well under Matt LaFleur as home favorites, going an impressive 8-3 ATS (72.7%) since the beginning of last season. Even if Aaron Jones misses another game, it is clear Green Bay has enough in their locker – both in the backfield and among the receiving corps – to create problems for Minnesota’s inconsistent defense. Which Vikings team will show up could determine the outcome, but the smart money is on the Pack – especially before it gets to -7.
Pick: Green Bay
INDIANAPOLIS (-3) at DETROIT (Over/Under 50)
The AFC South has quickly become a two-tier division: The Titans and Colts in the plush front-row seats, while the Jaguars and Texans languish on the rain-soaked bleachers. It is a two-horse race, but the Colts have yet to truly get into their stride. A trip to the inconsistent Lions shouldn’t concern their coaching staff too much but laying three points on the road is perhaps a bit too much respect.
Teams tend to come back down to earth after producing a fantastic finish in the prior week. Detroit’s nerve-jangling last-gasp win in Atlanta got them back to 3-3, but this team is notoriously up and down with their level of play. If this game turns into a back and forth affair, the arm of Matthew Stafford would be preferable to that of Philip Rivers. Lions coach Matt Patricia would go a long way to securing his medium-term future with the team by pulling this one out. Creating a game plan to stop Rivers’ dink and dunk style isn’t the daunting part, necessarily. Rather, it is the match-up of the Lions offense against the Colts defense. The home team gets the slight edge in a matchup that, on paper, is dead even. If you fancy the total, the Lions are 8-1 to the over in their last nine at Ford Field.
Pick: Detroit
LAS VEGAS at CLEVELAND (-2.5) (Over/Under 54)
The Raiders put up a good fight but were unable to match the physicality of the Bucs on Sunday. Few teams will be able to, frankly. At 3-3, Las Vegas is staring up at the Chiefs, who they defeated in Arrowhead just a couple of weeks ago, but they have work to do to get into the AFC playoffs. A road victory over the Browns would be a good first step. Given the fragility of the Cleveland defense, Jon Gruden will like his chances of getting Josh Jacobs going and taking some shots downfield to the likes of Henry Ruggs and Nelson Agholor.
The Browns could provide a bit of punch, too, though. The high total – 54 – reflects a trend that both teams have stuck to this season, with the visitors 5-0-1 to the over this season and the home team 5-2 to the over. Cleveland should not fear the Raiders defense, of course, a unit that has given up points in bunches. With no defensive crutch to lean on, going with the over rather than the side in this game might be the right call. In a close game, however, the smart play is to grab the points and roll the dice with the Raiders.
Pick: Las Vegas
TENNESSEE (-5.5) at CINCINNATI (Over/Under 54.5)
The Titans narrowly suffered their first defeat of the season at the hands of Pittsburgh, a loss they can be forgiven for considering how poorly they started. A Stephen Gostkowski field goal through the uprights could have changed their fortunes. Another AFC North opponent awaits this week in the form of the plucky Bengals, who lost in heart-breaking fashion to Cleveland last week. Interestingly, the Bengals have only lost once against the spread this season, going 5-1-1 overall.
As for the Titans, they should be confident of securing a road victory and reaffirming their status among the AFC’s elite teams. Ryan Tannehill is 14-5 straight up as their starter and has hardly put a foot wrong. Against a lackluster pass rush this week, he will be able to find more rhythm. The total is on the high end (54.5), but Tannehill is 14-4-1 to the over in his starts. Joe Burrow is not shy of chucking it either, creating the possibility of a back and forth affair. The 5.5 seems a bit rich given Cincinnati’s stubbornness against the spread.
Pick: Cincinnati
NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (-3.5) (Over/Under 44)
Betting against Bill Belichick when his team is the underdog has not been a good strategy. Since 2010, the Patriots are 14-4 ATS in that situation, but times have changed. The certainties of the past are no longer ironclad as they once were; the Patriots’ shield of invincibility has seemingly been shattered. And yet, against the Bills, Belichick has lost only three of the last 33 meetings. The trick will be getting Cam Newton, a streaky passer at the best of times, into a groove – enough to take the pressure off the defense, at the very least.
Buffalo got by last week against the Jets, but barely. Style points do not ultimately matter in the NFL, wins do, but to say Sean McDermott’s team has cooled off would be an understatement. In the context of this division, this victory for Buffalo would bury the Patriots, placing them 4.5 games back. With that expectation, however, comes pressure. Josh Allen has produced moments of magic this season, but Belichick will have something cooked up for the notoriously risky quarterback. The under has gone 7-4 in the last 11 meetings of these teams and looks like a decent bet, even at 44.
Pick: New England
LA CHARGERS (-3) at DENVER (Over/Under 45)
Not much went right for the Broncos in snow-covered Mile High on Sunday, least of all Drew Lock’s passing, which was lacking crispness and accuracy, while receivers seemed not to be on his wavelength. That is inevitable for a young, growing quarterback and his skill players, but it will need to improve for Denver to have a chance. This is a bottom of division battle, but both teams can claim to be better than their 2-4 records. Realistically, though, the loser here faces an uphill battle to even reach the postseason as a wildcard.
Justin Herbert exploded in the box score on Sunday as many predicted, laying waste to the Jaguars defense and hooking up with a variety of receivers. The young man has poise, toughness – and a great haircut to boot. The Chargers defense should be able to harry Lock enough to put the clamps on the Denver offense. If Herbert can keep up his end of the bargain, there will be only one winner. Laying the points with an inconsistent team on the road seems ill-advised, but in Justin we trust.
Pick: Los Angeles
SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE (-3) (Over/Under 54)
The NFC West always produces memorable divisional games, with these two franchises playing some of the best over the past decade. The 49ers come into this game with a lot of momentum, having trounced the Patriots in Foxborough. No matter who is plugged in at the skill positions, Kyle Shanahan can get the best out of them. The Seattle defense has been giving up points for fun this season, so the gears of Shanahan’s mind are surely turning to take advantage.
The Niners are 9-2 ATS as the visitor dating back to last year and have covered their last seven as an underdog. The trends, therefore, are very much against the Seahawks. Russell Wilson had his worst game of the season last week in Arizona, and even they were a few plays away from pulling out a victory. The defensive frailties of Pete Carroll’s team invite close games, so it is hard to look past the safe approach here by taking the points in a game the 49ers could win outright.
Pick: San Francisco
NEW ORLEANS (-4) at CHICAGO (Over/Under 47)
The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last nine as the visiting team, which explains why Vegas has made them a four-point favorite against a comparable team – at least in terms of record. The narrative of Drew Brees outdoors will surely come into play this week, and it will be interesting to see how he fares against a solid Bears front seven. Alvin Kamara continues to be the centerpiece for everything Sean Payton’s team does, but Chuck Pagano might just have the horses defensively to slow him down.
The Bears are playing with fire if they continue to rely on this uninspiring brand of offensive football. Too much pressure is being put on the defense to carry the load, a formula this franchise has adhered to many times in the past. Nick Foles could have a hot streak here and there, but it is hard to predict when and where that may occur. This might be a game where the Bears come back down to earth a little bit more from their lofty 5-2 perch.
Pick: New Orleans
(Sunday Night) DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA (No line)
With no line on this game in most sportsbooks due to the uncertainty over Andy Dalton’s condition, there isn’t much to say except this: avoid this game at all costs. Neither team has been trustworthy on a consistent basis and the Cowboys players have all but started a coup against their recently installed head coach Mike McCarthy.
If you must pick a side, the Eagles have a slight edge, but it all depends on the number. The DraftKings sportsbook has the Eagles as -7.5, which might be a little too rich even considering how utterly terrible the Cowboys defense is. With so much uncertainty, this is a pass.
Pick: Philadelphia
(Monday Night) TAMPA BAY (-10.5) at NY GIANTS (Over/Under 47)
Somehow, the Giants are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games – and with the line as high as it is in this game, they could repeat the feat. The Bucs bandwagon is gaining some serious steam and with good reason. Tom Brady may be without Chris Godwin this week, but it does not seem to matter. Next man up is not necessarily a bad thing for this juggernaut. And they may just be getting into their stride. Defensively, they should be able to dominate Daniel Jones and the Giants offensive line.
All of which is to say that this could be a coming-out party of sorts for the Bucs, an announcement to the NFL world that they are a legitimate Super Bowl team. Unfortunately for the Giants, this feels like a lamb-to-the-slaughter type of contest. Even with the 10.5-point line, it is hard to see past the visitors.
Pick: Tampa Bay
BEST BETS
Once again this year this article will give out not only the Best Bets but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 Star scale. The more stars, the bigger the emphasis on that side of the game.
The best bets went 3-1 and the picks of the week went 4-1 to round off a successful Week 7 for this column. With lines getting more efficient as the weeks go by, however, this is not the time to rest on our laurels. This week, we will focus our bets around the following lines:
- 1 GREEN BAY (-6.5) vs. MINNESOTA
- 2 PITTSBURGH (+3.5) at BALTIMORE
- 3 ATLANTA (+3) at CAROLINA
- 4 SAN FRANCISCO (+3) at SEATTLE
With these likes in mind, here are the Week 8 selections:
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (1.76-1 ODDS)
- SAN FRANCISCO (+9)
- ATLANTA (+9)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- DOUBLE DOG (2.28-1 ODDS):
- ATLANTA (+3)
- PITTSBURGH (+3.5)
- 2-TEAM UNDER DOUBLE (2.61-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND/BUFFALO – UNDER 43
- LOS ANGELES/DENVER– UNDER 45
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 3-TEAM MEGA MONEY LINE (4.12-1 ODDS)
- GREEN BAY – FOR THE WIN
- NEW ORLEANS – FOR THE WIN
- PITTSBURGH – FOR THE WIN
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, San Francisco, New Orleans
RESULTS
Last Week / Season
- LAST WEEK: 8-6
- SEASON OVERALL: 58-45-2 (56.7%)
- BEST BETS: 15-12-1, last week 3-1 (56.3%)
- PICK OF THE WEEK: 19-16-1, last week 4-1 (54.9%)
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to larkin@footballguys.com
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