Photo: USA Today Sports

With three games complete for dynasty teams the sample size is growing enough to establish whether contending or building type dynasty trades are optimal over the next couple of weeks. Here are ideal players and dynasty trade strategies heading into Week 4:

PRIMARY BACKUP RUNNING BACK ADD-ON

A strategy to apply to any dynasty trade is adding on a lower level primary backup running back to an essentially complete deal. The 'one-injury-away' running back is the highest leverage player asset outside of quarterbacks and tight ends in leagues which start two. Seek out the low-level backups who have no (or little) stand-alone impact or value but would be the unquestioned starter with an injury in front of them. Also, the key is adding a player the other GM will not quibble with as a part of the trade. Here are a few examples:

• Darrel Williams
• Jeff Wilson
• Jordan Wilkins
• Giovani Bernard
• Brian Hill
• Devontae Booker

ROOKIE PICK ADD-ON

A parallel strategy to adding on a primary backup running back to an existing deal is shifting to rookie picks. There is a myriad of ways to include picks in a near-final trade including:

• Straight rookie pick request: Adding a future third or fourth-round pick to the deal
• Rookie pick round upgrade: Including your fourth-round pick for their third (or third to second upgrade)
• Upgrade within the round: If there is clarity on where in the round the picks project, move up from later to earlier
• Upgrade with a future year: Move a fourth in Y+1 for a third in Y+2 as an example

THE REDIRECT

When a dynasty trade is received there are multiple potential paths to venture down with a counter offer. A GM can be selling a particular asset, buying a particular asset, or targeting a specific position as general examples. Even if a GM does not like the specific offer sent, counter-offers including the same buying or selling asset are using the information to create acceptable deals. So if an example offer sent is Running Back X for Running Back Y and a future pick there are three typical counter-offer ideas:

• First, send an offer for Running Back X including Running Back Y, but a lesser pick or different asset included.
• Second, send an offer for Running Back X without using Running Back Y.
• Third, send an offer giving Running Back Y but without Running Back X.

Regardless of which of the above you choose, this alerts the other GM on the difference in cost of the assets and promotes the continuation of negotiation. A straight declination halts a potential trade without any information on what your buy-sell lines are for assets and players.

RUNNING BACKS

James Robinson

Robinson has been one of the most traded players on myfantasyleague.com each of the past two weeks. Robinson has risen from the (relative) ether from being a late-round rookie draft pick (at best) in May to now being worth a future Round 1 pick, or more, in the trade market. His lack of pedigree provides little margin for error with any downturn in production this season or allegiance beyond this season, especially if there is a new coaching staff in the offseason.

Non-contending teams have an easy decision as Robinson's current year production is immaterial to their 2021-and-beyond focus. However, Robinson as a trade decision is a little more cloudy for a contending team. Robinson could be an auto-start player on said team or valuable to their bye week gauntlet navigation. However, know if holding beyond this week specifically, Robinson is coming off of a massive fantasy performance in Week 3 and there is a decent chance this is the high-water mark for his trade value.

As a UDFA, there has not been an RB1 season finish as a rookie in at least the past 25 years. Betting on Robinson to achieve this is betting on an outlier of an outlier subset type outcome. Key questions to ask yourself if Robinson is on your roster:

• If Robinson is out for the year starting next week, will you wish you sold?
• If Robinson is integral to my 2020 result, am I really a strong contender?
• Do I have running backs returning soon from injury, or with upside possibilities not currently being realized?

Ideal trade constructions based on recent executed deals involving Robinson:

• Robinson for 21 1st (possibly even a 2nd or 3rd added to return)
• Robinson, Leonard Fournette for David Johnson, 21 1st
• Robinson as an ancillary piece to upgrade to a true cornerstone player (think top-25 type overall dynasty asset)

Todd Gurley

Gurley has been leaking value for a while now. However, the 2020 iteration is concerning with his usage. Gurley is a touchdown-dependent back as his receiving usage, like the end of his Rams' time, has devolved to the point where his weekly ceiling has to include multiple touchdowns. Gurley from a true impact (aWORP, Adjusted Wins Over Replacement Player) perspective, is unlikely to have any say over a dynasty team being successful or not in 2020. Gurley still has an exit value, however, through recent dynasty trading to shift to higher upside and/or more insulated assets:

• Gurley for Will Fuller
• Gurley for 21 1st
• Gurley, Curtis Samuel, Sammy Watkins for Jerry Jeudy
• Gurley for Henry Ruggs

Joe Mixon

Saquon Barkley

Barkley is the prototypical target for teams looking ahead to 2021 or a strong roster that can absorb the short-term loss of the (likely) healthy and producing assets given for Barkley. On the flip side, a team with contending aspirations in 2020, selling Barkley shifts future production (with no chance of 2020 production) to include the current year. My general observation of the Barkley trade market has been too many trades of Barkley did not include a cornerstone player in return. As a buyer, target giving 2-3 aggregate assets for Barkley without giving a cornerstone (think top-15 type) player. To address the other side of the trading market, as a potential seller of Barkley, be careful not to sell for mere pieces. Barkley is one of the pinnacle players in all of dynasty. The last taste in our collective mouths was a clunky start to 2020 with a horrible Giants team around him. Situations change quickly and Barkley was on a historic career start with rare physical traits and pedigree.

Example Buys

• Barkley for Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz
• Barkley for Derrick Henry
• Barkley, Mecole Hardman, 21 2nd for Aaron Jones, Keenan Allen, 22 1st (Superflex)
• Barkley for Justin Herbert, 21 1st (2QB)

Example Sells

• Barkley for Alvin Kamara
• Barkley, 21 2nd for Ezekiel Elliott
• Barkley, Jameis Winston for Josh Jacobs
• Barkley, 21 1st for Ezekiel Elliott, Jarvis Landry, Hunter Henry

Follow @ChadParsonsNFL