Welcome to Week 3 of the 2020 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid and oddball panel of fantasy pundits discuss and debate targets in the wake of Week 2's devastation on top draft picks, preemptive players who could eventually serve as unheralded replacements, (non-IDP) non-fantasy players and their impact on fantasy commodities, and when our staff is prone to overreactions as fantasy general managers.
- Week 2's Fantasy Devastation
- Matt Waldman's Replacements
- Non-Fantasy Players of Impact
- Fantasy Confessions: When Do You Overreact?
Let's roll...
Week 2's Fantasy Devastation
Matt Waldman: It was an awful week for injuries with fantasy impact in the NFL. Give me two players you believe have the best opportunity to deliver fantasy starter value for as long as the starter he's replacing remains out.
Daniel Simpkins: Mike Davis is the player I’m advocating that fantasy players spend the most waiver dollars on this week. He’s no Christian McCaffrey, but Davis is also not a bum. He’s very competent between the tackles and catches the ball well for a back his size. Unlike a lot of situations, there’s not much competition for shouldering the load in Carolina, which is another reason I like Davis the best of any plug-and-play running back that has been available this season so far.
Jerick McKinnon has gone from overrated to underrated in the span of a couple of seasons based on injuries and lack of production due to missed time. He’s not someone I would want as my NFL starter, but he’s a fine replacement-level running back, one that can produce in San Francisco’s high-volume rushing attack and passing game that currently lacks its dynamic receivers due to injury.
Jason Wood: Jerick McKinnon. Kyle Shanahan is a master of the run game. Let's not forget Raheem Mostert was an end-of-the-roster journeyman until late last season. Jerick McKinnon has a better resume and physical profile when he signed in San Francisco, but a season-ending injury derailed his chance at stardom. But he's back, healthy, and is now in line for another shot at the lead role. While healthy, he could be better than Mostert in the same role.
Tre'Quan Smith. Smith was a forgotten man in drafts because of Emmanuel Sanders' signing. Yet, in the first week without Michael Thomas, it was Smith who shined while Sanders was a non-factor. It's only one game so it's possible the game script leaned more toward Smith's vertical prowess and subsequent weeks will favor Sanders, but we cannot forget how much scouts loved Smith's potential fit in Sean Payton's system two years ago when they used a third rounder on him.
Jeff Pasquino: Well, waiver wire pickups are a combination of opportunity and talent. With Christian McCaffrey out for 4-6 weeks, Mike Davis has to be at or near the top of everyone's add list. He may not be the most explosive player, but he has a clear path to 15-20 touches a game, which is a solid RB2 valuation with upside in PPR leagues.
With honorable mentions to wide receivers in Green Bay and Indianapolis, the second choice has to also be a tailback. With Saquan Barkley done for the year, the leader of the Giants backfield will also be a worthwhile addition. Dion Lewis and Wayne Gallman are lackluster choices, but Devonta Freeman just signed with New York on Tuesday, so he jumps to the "1A" spot, even ahead of Davis, on the list. Freeman has been a lead back before and his opportunity lasts for 14 more games, unlike Davis who will go back to backup duties once McCaffrey returns to action in about a month.
Andy Hicks: Mike Davis is the easy answer here. Carolina had a bare cupboard behind Christian McCaffrey and the only player with any fantasy credentials is Mike Davis. He is best defined as a third-down back, but showed in a six-week stint with Seattle in 2018 that he could handle the role on a short-term basis. 75 carries for 342 yards and three rushing touchdowns, as well as 19 receptions for 104 yards and one touchdown. Of course, Chicago signed him as a free agent in 2019, took one look at him in game action and cut him shortly after. He should be a on the cusp of RB2/RB3 fantasy value right now.
Waldman: Chicago is a good reverse barometer for judgment with personnel right now.
Hicks: While Jack Doyle is out with injury, my other choice will be Mo Alie-Cox as the guy to target. His value this season is all upside. The Colts have prepared him well over several seasons for a significant role. Even if Doyle comes back, I prefer Alie-Cox as the fantasy prospect here. Doyle is a marginal prospect at his best, but that hasn’t been for years. Philip Rivers loves his tight ends and Alie-Cox should be a borderline starter, if not more for the rest of the season. I’m annoyed I didn’t target him harder after week one.
Drew Davenport: Watching the Panthers on Sunday two things stood out as being pretty clear indicators going forward: Carolina is going to be behind a lot, and they trust Mike Davis to catch passes out of the backfield. He grabbed an astounding 8 passes in the short time that Christian McCaffrey was out. That value in PPR leagues is hard to come by off of the wire. After seeing that the Panthers moved McCaffrey to IR it wouldn't be surprising for Davis to lose some early down work in a committee, but at least for the next 3-4 weeks he should be a good floor play for his receiving work alone.
This is cheating a little bit as Jarwin was hurt in Week 1, but I'm using it here because I was surprised at the love Dallas showed for Schultz during their Week 2 game. I had heard going into the game that he was more of a blocker and wouldn't get much passing game work, but watching the Cowboys go to him over and over says he's likely to be an important part of the passing game going forward.
You don't stumble into 10 targets unless the team feels you can contribute. Obviously, the game script helped his final numbers, and he isn't going to have 23.8 PPR points every week, but he's very capable in a good offense and should have value all season long. The role we hoped to see from Blake Jarwin now shifts to Schultz and if Jason Witten can turn in a borderline Top-12 season it's easy to see Schultz finishing the year in the top 10 at the position..
Chad Parsons: Davis has been one of my favorite stash players over the past 2-3 weeks, on deeper redraft rosters and especially in dynasty. Davis has a three-down skill set and was largely ignored as an injury-away option due to Christian McCaffrey rarely leaving the field. The injury occurred in Week 2 and now Davis is a plug-and-play RB2 with RB1 weekly upside. I doubt Reggie Bonnafon saps much upside from Davis with this stint as the new Carolina starter in Christian McCaffrey's absence.
My second choice is also Schultz. Taking over for Blake Jarwin as the starting tight end in Dallas, Schultz will be the ignored weapon by opposing defenses considering Dallas' other skill-position targets. Schultz is a streaming special for the rest of the season at a fantasy tight end position with plenty of turnover in who is a weekly starter, on your bench for now, or cut-worthy through two weeks. Bet on the big-time offense and Schultz has that in spades.
Waldman: Couldn't agree more on David and Schultz. I also studied Mo Alie-Cox's tape from the Vikings game on Tuesday. Cox earned some big plays thanks to some coverage mix-ups with the Vikings linebackers, but he also was the beneficiary of creative play designs. His rebounder mentality, skill after the catch, and the creative play designs are constants that will make in a fantasy value.
Jordan McNamara: I think Mike Davis is a good option to fill in for Christian McCaffrey and should be on the RB2 radar. Davis is a prototypically sized back with two-way ability, which should present a Davis an opportunity for at least 15 touches per game while McCaffrey is out.
Jordan Reed is also a good option while George Kittle is out. He has a long injury history but has been good in his career when healthy. He showed well in week two, so I'm optimistic rolling him out in any game he is healthy where Kittle misses, and I think he has room to be a fantasy viable option in the 49ers offense when Kittle returns.
Waldman: Well you heard them, Mike Davis, David Schultz, Jordan Reed, Mo Alie-Cox, Jerick McKinnon, and Tre-Quan Smith.
Matt Waldman's Replacements
Waldman: Fortunately, COVID-19 hasn't been a direct health issue for the NFL. Still, it didn't take a scientist to realize that the precautions taken as a result of COVID could have an indirect impact on injury rates.
Talk to former NFL players and they'll tell you that they prefer to have a certain amount of collisions prior to the season so their bodies can acclimate to the contact. How much that amount is, is still an unknown when it comes to striking a balance between helpful and generating diminishing returns.
Last week was an awful one on the injury front. In anticipation of the direct or indirect consequences of having an NFL season during a pandemic, I suggested I write a feature that broaches the names of 3-5 players per week because of positive COVID tests or unanticipated injury downgrades late in the week.
There are three categories of recommendation:
1. Start Now - Players worth adding to your roster immediately who could offer starter value if in need.
2. Preemptive Pickup - Players who have potential contributor value to your roster who are worth adding if you have the luxury/need, but they're at least 1-2 weeks away from an opportunity or production that will put them on the waiver wire radar.
3. Monitor - Players with the right combination of talent and scheme fit who are not a part of the team's starting rotation or active roster who could deliver value if injuries/positive tests create an unexpected hole in the depth chart.
The Replacements is the name of the article and its current list of recommendations of already playable options have included James Robinson, Quintez Cephus, Jordan Reed, Mike Thomas.
Check out the link above and you'll get a complete list of the players mentioned. What I want you to do is select one of your own for each category that's not in my article.
Wood: Start Now: Robby Anderson, Carolina. Many leagues picked up Anderson after his Week 1 explosion, but he's still available in a surprising number of leagues and that's ridiculous. We flagged him as a sleeper in the preseason because of his history with Matt Rhule (a self-professed father figure) and how his downfield ability was a missing piece in Carolina. The only question was whether Teddy Bridgewater would throw downfield enough. Two games in and we've got our answer as Anderson is fourth in the NFL with 223 receiving yards. He's on pace for 120 receptions, 1,784 yards and 8 touchdowns..
Preemptive Pickup: Blake Bortles, Denver. The Broncos lost Drew Lock and while his timeline isn't season-ending, it's entirely possible he has a setback or re-injures himself upon return. The Broncos added Bortles this week initially as Jeff Driskel's backup, but remember -- Jeff Driskel isn't the kind of quarterback who should have a backup, he should BE a backup. Driskel was awful in camp, and should turn back into a pumpkin quickly. If Lock isn't ready by then, Bortles has two top-10 fantasy seasons under his belt and could have the kind of free-wheeling, devil-may-care attitude in this new lease on life to be fantasy relevant in Superflex leagues.
Monitor: Travis Homer, Seattle. Do a quick Google search for "Pete Carroll and Travis Homer" and you'll see pull quotes that make Homer sound like he's on the cusp of league MVP. Now Carroll is known for hyperbolic praise, but what's clear is he's as confident in Homer being a fit for the Seahawks run-friendly offense as Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde. Homer needs the injury bug to hit to have an opportunity, but as we've seen through two weeks, this could be a historic year for injuries..
Pasquino: Last week I jumped on Myles Gaskin as I thought he could be the guy in Miami. As much as I don't like to grab players from weaker teams, having a guy getting touches is valuable at the RB position. He's a "Start Now."
Washington's backfield is a mess, but J.D. McKissic actually looked relatively decent last week against a very good Arizona defense. The scatback had eight carries for 53 yards (6.6 YPC) and the longest run of the day of 13 yards. Not stellar, but the fact that he was active and in the mix behind Antonio Gibson—who aside from a touchdown did not do much at all (55 yards on 13 carries)—makes McKissic a reasonable preemptive pickup in deeper leagues.
Sticking with the running back theme, there are now depth chart issues across the board for San Francisco after a plethora of injuries last week against the Jets. While Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman were the top backs, they both were injured and are unlikely to suit up this week against the other New York team. Many will pivot to adding Jerick McKinnon, but Jeff Wilson Jr. is a very sneaky player to watch.
Hicks: Start Now...With the spate of injuries this week we have many potential starters available on waiver wires. Last week we saw Benny Snell, Scott Miller and maybe even Will Fuller fail after great first weeks. Situations can fluctuate wildly as unexpected starters develop, fail and get injured themselves. As was already answered in the previous question, my safest players to start now would be Mike Davis and Mo Alie-Cox. Others like Jerick McKinnon, Myles Gaskin, Josh Adams and Devonta Freeman are either not good enough or need some time.
Preemptive Pickup...Jeff mentioned him, but I do like Jeff Wilson to be even better than Jeff expects and believe he will be the reliable runner in the 49ers offense. He was beaten out a couple of years back for significant touches by Raheem Mostert, but did well when given opportunities. I’m not a 100 percent convinced the team just want to throw Jerick McKinnon out there for a big workload after an almost 1,000-day absence.
Maybe McKinnon gets a bigger chunk of the passes directed at running backs, but with the Giants on the schedule this week I would count on a lot of running from Wilson. Benny Snell and David Montgomery looked pretty good against this unit and I don’t think Wilson is that far below their standards. With Tevin Coleman likely to be out longer than Mostert this is a great opportunity to grab Wilson while others grab the bigger names this week.
Monitor...Zach Pascal is someone who should not be underestimated. He played well last year registering over 600 yards and five touchdowns. With Parris Campbell expected out for significant time, Michael Pittman still learning and T.Y. Hilton on the downside of 30 and struggling to build a rapport with Philip Rivers, Pascal is going to be a nice receiver to have as depth with potential WR2/WR3 upside.
I would also be looking seriously at Jameis Winston. Drew Brees looks old. There were hints of it last year as well and while the Saints are never going to bench him, I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses time with an injury if the Saints start losing or keep playing like they did against Las Vegas. If we remember Peyton Manning's final season, he missed several games before coming back and being gifted a Superbowl. Winston is a lot better option than Brock Osweiler.
Waldman: Andy gets a hat tip for mentioning this Brees-Winston dynamic in before Week 1. I'm will have to dive deeper into Brees' performances.
Davenport: Start Now...Drew Sample. If you've watched Joe Burrow's first two starts one thing stands out from the quarterback play that is different from Andy Dalton: Burrow is being very liberal with how he spreads the ball around. He's also concentrating on making high percentage short throws to keep the ball moving and according to the NFL's Next Gen Stats Burrow is near the bottom of the league in Completed Air Yards. All of this is good for Sample. After coming in to relieve the injured C.J. Uzomah he had 7 catches in a positive game script. The Bengals defense is poor, and Burrow is completing short passes - this lines up nicely for Sample the rest of the way..
Preemptive Pickup...Damiere Byrd. Byrd threw up a zero in Week 1 so people may be slow to come around to what he can do, but in Week 2 he recorded 6 receptions for 72 yards on 9 targets. The thing about Byrd is that not many are aware he is leading the team in wide receiver snap share with 88% and 86% of the team's snaps through two weeks. If he has another nice game this week it will be too late to get him cheaply, so he's worth an add based on the playing time alone to see if he continues to develop a solid PPR floor.
Monitor...Chase Claypool. The rookie's talent was on display on Sunday as he took a long catch to the house for a big play for Pittsburgh. He is definitely buried on the depth chart for the moment with the Steelers' top three guys getting the majority of the snaps. But Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster have already been mainstays on the injury report, and that means only James Washington stands between Claypool and a sizeable role on what looks like an offense that has come back to pre-2019 form somewhat. Claypool doesn't have a big role yet, but that could change quickly.
Parsons: Drew Sample is a "Start Now." The Bengals are one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL and Joe Burrow is off to a solid start. Sample is the unquestioned starter with C.J. Uzomah out for the season and Sample is a streaming option for fantasy teams with positional question marks going forward.
Jeff Wilson is a preemptive pickup. With the host of 49ers injuries at running back, Jerick McKInnon and Jeff Wilson are the low-hanging fruit of healthy backs left on the depth chart. McKinnon has sparsely played through two weeks and missed two seasons before 2020 with an injury. Wilson had moments last season and is the hedge against McKInnon, who has never been a full-time starter in the NFL (remember Matt Asiata?). McKinnon is the bright-lights name in fantasy this week, but Wilson is the hedge and the savvy pickup for a fraction of the cost and name cache.
Darwin Thompson is my option to monitor.
Waldman: My man, my man...
Parsons: Darrel Williams was injured in Week 2 and Darwin Thompson would be the injury-away option in one of the best NFL offenses if Clyde Edwards-Helaire were to miss time. This works in both directions if Williams is available in your respective fantasy league, or Thompson, both should be rostered going forward as they have league-changing upside with an expanded opportunity.
McNamara: Myles Gaskin is the lead back in Miami, which is one of the more surprising stories so far in fantasy football. He's essentially relegated Jordan Howard and Matt Breida to the bench. With a snap share above 60 percent, Gaskin presents an option with plenty of opportunities as a spot start or flex consideration. Start now.
Reggie Bonnafon projects to be the backup to Mike Davis in Carolina and moves into a one injury away role. If Davis gets injured while McCaffrey is injured, Bonnafon projects for a spot start. He's a preemptive pickup.
I'm monitoring Thompson right now. Darrel Williams left week two with an ankle injury so Thompson has potential as a one injury way running back in Kansas City behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire if Williams misses time.
Waldman: I'll state that if it were my team, I'd be making Thompson the preemptive pickup and monitoring Bonnafon.
Simpkins: Start Now: Mo Alie-Cox recently vaulted from my watch list to a must-add player in my Waivers of the Future column. Like Sigmund Bloom, the athletic, basketball-convert types excite me when they get their NFL shot. Both Jack Doyle and Trey Burton look like they’ll be out another game and even when they return, I’m not sure this genie will go back in the bottle. He led the team in both receptions and yardage against the Vikings. While I’m not sure that trend will continue, I do anticipate Mo Alie-Cox is going to have weeks going forward where he’ll finish within the top ten at the position. That’s all you can ask for because it’s a wasteland trying to find a viable tight end on the fantasy waiver wire in leagues of 20+ bench spots..
Preemptive Pickup: I’m going to go a little deeper with this one for our folks who are playing in 40+ roster spot leagues. Add Adam Humphries if you have room to do so. After being injured for most of the year, he came on strong for the Titans in the playoff race and appears to have picked up where he left off last year. He and Tannehill have developed a great rapport, one I could see growing if A.J. Brown continues to deal with a knee issue and Corey Davis’ tight hamstring flares up again, as it did already this season. It’s not a high volume pass offense, but it doesn’t have to be if he’s suddenly thrust into a primary workload because of injuries.
Monitor: The running back roster is very thin in Houston and David Johnson hasn’t exactly been the picture of health and stability over the last few years. We need to keep an eye on C.J. Procise, who has just been promoted from the practice squad to the active roster. Procise himself has struggled to stay healthy, but when he has been healthy, he has been a productive runner and pass-catcher.
Non-Fantasy Players of Impact
Waldman: Give me 1-2 players whose unexpected performance (good or bad) or injury will continue to help or hurt his team and explain why it has a significant impact on a specific fantasy player or players on that team.
Pasquino: The New Orleans Saints struggled greatly in coverage against Darren Waller on defense last week, most notably Malcolm Jenkins. The Raiders had several drives of more than 10 plays on Monday Night Football, keeping their offense on the sideline. If the Saints' defense cannot step back up, they will struggle to win the NFC South in a competitive division with strong offenses and good tight ends in Tampa Bay and Atlanta.
The biggest non-fantasy impact has to be the losses on defense for the 49ers. Devastating injuries to Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas added to the woes for San Francisco, who find themselves at 1-1 in the NFC West but appear now to have the toughest road in the division to get back to the playoffs.
Wood: How about a tandem at the same position? J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus have been terrible for Houston, and yet both -- when on the field -- are supposed to be key pieces to a defense that must keep opposing offenses in check so DeShaun Watson can have positive game scripts. Both Watt and Mercilus have played the majority of the snaps, yet rank below average against the run, in coverage, and in quarterback pressures..
Hicks: This is such a complicated and nuanced question to answer briefly. It probably is best left to those who watch all 22 players over multiple viewings on the field at any one time rather than someone like me who tends to focus on the actions of the offensive skill players in the limited number of games I can watch in full. I have a hard enough time focusing on six or seven players in any given game. Sometimes it is best to listen to others and Footballguys has many guys who provide great deep analysis..
Waldman: Honest answer.
Davenport: I'm going with the Texans' offensive line here, and specifically Tytus Howard. I'm not a film grinder and Houston has opened the year with two (soon to be three) tough defensive matchups, but the offensive line was supposed to be somewhat strong for this Houston team and they look absolutely overmatched against any reasonable pass rush. This is a big area of concern for the whole Texans offense, but even more for the downfield passing attack. Things lighten up after this week, but it's not an encouraging sign for this offense..
Waldman: I'm going with Browns left tackle Jedrick Wills, Jr. While Daniel Jeremiah is doing victory laps over Mekhi Becton, Wills is off to an excellent start in Cleveland. He's solidifying the Browns ground game and giving Baker Mayfield time to throw the ball. While Mayfield isn't exactly maximizing his opportunities from the pocket at this point, whether it's Mayfield or Case Keenum, expect the Browns passing game to improve as the season progresses thanks to Wills' stellar technique and athletic ability.
Jamaal Adams is killing it in Seattle. Although Julian Edelman rang him up for some big plays on the way to a 187-yard week, the Patriots went against tendency with Edelman as a route runner. Still, Adams, run defense and blitzing are impactful. And when he's allowed to play single high and roam sideline to sideline as a pass defender, he's awesome. Adams' work generates big plays that are taking opposing offenses off the field and giving the Seahawks more opportunities on offense.
Mike Hilton of the Pittsburgh Steelers is adding a blitz element as a cornerback that's difficult to prepare for in the midst of the Steelers' love for varying blitzes. Because the Steelers have a strong secondary, the defense does a strong job of covering for Hilton when he's sent to the quarterback. This is helping Pittsburgh's offense stay with its game plan for the same reasons Adams is helping Seattle's offense.
The Chiefs' addition of Kelechi Osemele at guard has been a bolster to an offensive line that lost starter Laurent Duvernay-Tardif during the offseason. Osemele is a combative player with a mauler's mentality in the run game. He has acclimated quickly to the Chiefs offense reduced the potential for penalties that a line lacking cohesion usually has. The Chiefs offense looks as good as ever and Osemele's quick transition has been a big part of it.
Simpkins: Center Brandon Linder has been exceptional on the Jaguars line and is a big reason James Robinson has been successful when rushing from the interior. Linder got hurt in the Titans game and I’m worried that Robinson won’t be as effective if Linder remains out.
Chris Hubbard filled in for an injured Jack Conklin and was able to hold his own against the Bengals. We finally saw Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt take off behind pulling linemen with the Browns this offseason. I have optimism that when Conklin is back, we’ll continue to see this line that is designed to road grade opponents combine with the skills of Chubb and Hunt to produce 1,000 rushing seasons for both runners.
Fantasy Confession: When Do You Overreact?
Matt Waldman: What type of thing that you see during the game causes you to overreact about a player good or bad?
Hicks: I’m looking more at a players personality and how they react with adversity. Lack of effort in particular gets me all riled up. Poor body language is another warning sign. Of course, we sometimes fail to give these guys some humanity. We don’t know what they are struggling with off the field or what injuries they have to overcome sometimes to get on the field, but as a rule I am looking for red flags.
Antonio Brown was a classic example a few years back. I don’t even remember the exact trigger, but he was the number one fantasy receiver and likely to be for the foreseeable future. His off field antics that flared up on the field occasionally bothered me. I traded him in the staff dynasty league two years before his eventual meltdown, but I was not surprised in the least.
The downside of this approach is that I have players that may just have had a bad day way down in my evaluations and as was demonstrated by Antonio Brown, I missed two years of high-end fantasy production.
Davenport: I think the "wow" plays are my weakness. A guy like Auden Tate is a perfect example. When the ball gets in his catch radius, he often makes a spectacular plays and brings in passes some guys wouldn't. But there is a reason he's been a healthy scratch this year and although I don't totally understand that, there is definitely a problem with conflating talent and big plays with consistent production on an NFL level. It's wise to enjoy the big plays but not get too caught up in what they mean for production going forward.
Waldman: Great answer, Drew.
McNamara: Players who have bad situational awareness (i.e. Atlanta's onside kick coverage team) are a group I am biased against. This may not have a fantasy impact, but seeing players make bad decisions on down and distance or in clock management leaves me critical of their preparation and work habits.
Parsons: Poorly thrown deep passes irk me when watching every play of every game on a weekly basis. If fantasy GMs knew all the missed big games from wide receivers and quarterbacks due to a missed long connection, they would be far more frustrated than the current general climate on Mondays and Tuesdays. The two routes and missed connections that bother me the most are first, when quarterbacks (and the wide receiver running the sideline route) give no room to the outside for the receiver to make a play and get their feet down. The sideline is the enemy and some quarterbacks throw the ball basically into the white with no chance for a completion despite separation by the receiver.
The second one is a man coverage wide receiver with the defensive back in the trail position on a deep post. Quarterbacks miss this route often by throwing the ball vertically up the field instead of—in my view—leading the receiver across the field. The receiver would be able to run under the ball, still away from the defender, and with possible yards after the catch. All of these aspects are eliminated when the quarterback commonly leads the receiver up the field, causing them to slow, it becomes a contested situation, or the pass is over the receiver entirely.
Pasquino: The biggest things I look for might be considered both good and bad. I am hunting for players that lose production in a given game due to a penalty or a bad choice by the quarterback. Was a wide receiver open and the quarterback did not see him? Was there a big pass play or touchdown called back? That player could easily have bigger days ahead. Conversely, if I see a quarterback that is unwilling to throw deep or challenge a defense, I worry greatly about the production of the receivers on that offense. A passer with "happy feet" rarely supports big games for his supporting cast.
Waldman: And these answers hurts your fantasy games, how?
Wood: I'd like to think we're all fairly disciplined and what sets us apart is not overreacting to things that would trap a more casual fan. But one thing that comes to mind is getting furious with quarterbacks who seemingly miss wide-open receivers. If you've ever played or coached, you know that what a quarterback sees on the field is vastly different than what we see at home from an overhead view, so many times a play that looks wide open and you cannot believe wasn't made, was actually a very tough if not impossible read for the signal caller. And coincidentally, there can be windows, particularly on timing routes, that a quarterback absolutely should be making and yet we wouldn't notice the errors in execution from our overhead vantage at home.
Waldman: That's more of an answer that I was seeking, Wood. Perhaps I didn't phrase this clearly enough, or there was some artful dodging of the question.
I overreact to one-dimensional players or players with glaring weaknesses. If the player has one strong skill and several weaknesses, I have to make a concerted effort to honor their strengths, even if they are singular, and the potential fit with the offense.
Examples include:
- Running backs with great speed but lack refined decision-making beyond draw plays and gap plays.
- Athletic receivers who can't run a lot of routes (if you read the RSP, you can see I didn't overreact negatively about this with D.K. Metcalf).
Simpkins: Hi, my name is Daniel...
(Hi Daniel).
Waldman: Haha! Hi, Daniel...
Simpkins: I have a problem with conflating production with talent. I’ve improved in this area over the years, but I still find myself watching games and saying some variant of, “He looked good” when a player has a big statistical day and “He was terrible” when a player fails to produce.
It’s only when I go back and watch games more critically that I see that great block that sprung the running back for a 30-yard touchdown scamper or notice that while a player failed to light the stat sheet aflame, it was because his line wasn’t winning the trench battle and he was actually turning what should have been a three-yard loss into a one-yard gain.
I know most don’t have the time or the patience to do it, but even just rewinding the play a few times and watching it at a slower speed can give you so much more context and information than the snap judgments we often make based on the box score. Judging by some of the conversations I’ve overheard in public places and even in our own fantasy analyst circles, it’s safe to say I’m not the only one who needs to be in this support group.
Waldman: Daniel, you earn your chip for shedding your football genius.
