One of the best things about Footballguys is the sheer number of analysts we have on staff. With so many different and well-formed opinions to sift through, our subscribers can always get a 360-degree view of player analysis, strategies, rankings, reactions to breaking news, and everything else that goes along with winning at fantasy football.
Each summer, our staff articles on Undervalued and Overvalued players are among the most heavily viewed on the site. But what should you do when the competing opinions of our analysts inevitably land a player on both lists?
Ideally, you want to take in all the information you can and come to a decision on your own after considering all sides of the argument. You may even do some statistical research to break the tie. Unfortunately, not everyone has the time to dig deeper.
The goal of this article is to help both types of fantasy gamers. If you can’t get enough player analysis, there is plenty here for you. And if you want someone to break the tie on the players our staff disagrees on, you should read on as well.
Are the following players overvalued or undervalued? Let’s decide once and for all.
*The ADPs shown below are from Fantasy Football Calculator’s PPR data. It may not be the most accurate due to the inclusion of mock drafts, but their graphs make it easy to visualize how ADP values have changed since our Overvalued/Undervalued articles published in June.
Deshaun Watson
ADP
Watson’s ADP has remained steady over the last month. He is routinely drafted at QB6.
The Verdict
Watson is a moderate VALUE. Since entering the NFL in 2017, he has ranked first, fifth, and fifth in quarterback fantasy points per game, respectively. The obvious knock on him this year is the loss of Hall of Fame level wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins.
While Hopkins’ absence is less than ideal, it’s not as though the Texans are devoid of wide receiver talent. Will Fuller has maximized the value of his targets since entering the league. Brandin Cooks has played on four teams since 2016, making his production at each stop all the more impressive. Randall Cobb will somehow only be 30-years-old when the season starts and is coming off a bounce-back year in which he averaged a career-high 15.1 yards per reception. And should any of that injury-prone trio fail to make it through the season, Houston has depth on the perimeter (Kenny Stills) and in the slot (Keke Coutee), as well as out of the backfield (David Johnson and Duke Johnson Jr).
Any discussion on Watson’s fantasy value is incomplete without mentioning his rushing ability. Over the last three seasons, Watson ranks third amongst quarterbacks in total rushing fantasy points despite missing nine games as a rookie. In the same timeframe, Watson is one of 10 qualifying quarterbacks to generate at least 20% of his fantasy points via rushing production. Watson leads that cohort in total passing fantasy points by a chasmic 25% margin over the next closest player (Cam Newton). His rushing numbers are what we want in fantasy -- delicious gravy on an already satisfying cut of meat.
It would also be reasonable to expect more pass attempts for Watson in 2020. The Texans went 10-6 despite an average scoring margin of -1.3 last season. Natural regression should mean more negative scripts for Houston this season on its own. Factor in the loss of Hopkins’ all-world talent and we should see Watson forced to throw more than the 33 times per game we saw in 2019.
Raheem Mostert
ADP
Mostert’s ADP has crashed this month with the news he requested a trade from the 49ers. It’s worth reconsidering his fantasy value entirely from the time our Undervalued/Overvalued articles were published.
The Verdict
Mostert is still a TRAP. When he was going in the fourth round of PPR drafts, he was 100% untouchable. As a sixth-round commodity, drafting him is now defensible, but the opportunity cost remains a bit too steep. My take from last month’s Overvalued Running Backs article:
Don't chase Mostert's hot second half. He's got more juice in his legs than most career back-of-the-roster journeymen but if you draft him expecting a repeat of last year's unsustainable touchdown rate, you'll be disappointed.
Mostert scored on 6.6% of his total touches in 2019 (second behind Aaron Jones' 6.7%), which was exactly double the league average. The run-heavy 49ers will once again provide fertile ground for running back fantasy production, but last year's playoffs showed Kyle Shanahan will look to ride the hot hand from week to week.
In games where Tevin Coleman gets most of the work, Mostert, who never exceeded two targets in a game after getting his shot in Week 12, will not be bailed out by involvement in the passing game. Save him for Best Ball leagues where you won’t need to guess correctly on when his big games will come.
A trade was always an unlikely scenario, and it appears fences are already being mended. Mostert remains a source of ~13 carries per game on one of the league’s premier rushing teams, but he is still in a timeshare, doesn’t catch passes, and is a longshot to maintain last year’s efficiency. At least 10 other players typically drafted in the middle of Rounds 5 and 6 are more likely to help you compete for a championship, including running backs like Damien Williams, Cam Akers, and Kareem Hunt.
Keenan Allen
ADP
Allen has been drafted in the middle of Round 5 more or less since the offseason began.
The Verdict
Allen might be the most dangerous value TRAP in all of fantasy football. Based solely on his 2018 and 2019 stat lines, Allen is worthy of a pick inside the position’s top-10, yet he’s routinely available after 20 wide receivers have come off the board.
While Allen seems like a safe bet to pay off his depressed ADP, fifth-round picks who merely meet expectations are not championship difference-makers. His ceiling is capped well below the WR6 finish he posted last year for several reasons.
Allen will go from Philip Rivers -- the only quarterback he’s ever known as a pro and a possible Hall of Famer -- to some combination of Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert under center. If the COVID-shortened off-season leads to the veteran Taylor starting for most of the year, it may not be a death knell for Allen’s fantasy value, but it’s certainly not great news. During Taylor’s three-year stint as a starter in Buffalo, their offenses ranked 31st, 32nd, and 31st in team pass attempts, respectively.
The continued presence of head coach Anthony Lynn in LA leaves little doubt the Chargers plan to win by taking the air out of the ball. He oversaw Taylor as an assistant head coach and offensive coordinator in two of those run-heavy Bills’ seasons. LA’s offseason moves paint an even clearer picture. The gun-slinging Rivers is out, the offensive line was re-tooled with veterans Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga, and they added sneaky-good running back Joshua Kelley out of UCLA. If Lynn has his way, the Chargers will lean on their star-studded defense to keep them in games while mostly playing keep-away on offense.
With the offensive pie in LA set to shrink, Allen may have trouble exceeding 120 targets. The Taylor/Lynn offenses in Buffalo favored passes to tight ends (Charles Clay) and running backs (LeSean McCoy), while Robert Woods took a back seat. Austin Ekeler and Hunter Henry represent above-average target competition, and Allen -- never much of a touchdown-maker -- also has to compete with Mike Williams in the red zone.
Tyler Higbee
ADP
Recent Twitter chatter may have been the reason Higbee’s ADP dropped a few slots since its late-June peak.
The Verdict
Higbee reeks of a TRAP, though unlike Mostert and Allen this year, he admittedly possesses the upside to help win your league. Unfortunately for Higbee and his supporters, the cons far outweigh the pros.
Working against Higbee:
-
Small sample size - Higbee was lightning in a bottle after Week 10 last season. What about the first 58 games of his career?
-
Late breakout - Higbee broke out in his fourth season. Our Adam Harstad recently did a feature on fifth-year breakout tight end, Darren Waller, where we learned the history of late-breakout tight ends doesn’t inspire much confidence moving forward.
-
Sub-athleticism - There is nothing in Higbee’s profile to suggest he’s capable of sustaining yards-after-the-catch numbers typically reserved for the top athletes at the position.
-
Scary game-splits
welcome to the most terrifying game splits in the history of fantasy tight ends:
— the podfather (@Fantasy_Mansion) June 30, 2020
higbee 10 games w/ everett:
4.4 targets per game
7.3 fantasy points per game
higbee 4 games w/o everett:
11.3 targets per game
22.0 fantasy points per game pic.twitter.com/ED4Koe7Pdc
- Unusual depth at tight end - Drafting Higbee ahead of Rob Gronkowski, whose upside is rivaled by only Travis Kelce and George Kittle at the position, seems like a shaky plan. But when you consider the bumper crop of potential tight end breakouts currently available in the late rounds, it’s clear the best move at tight end is to either grab Kelce or Kittle early or wait until the later rounds to address the position.
In Higbee’s favor:
-
He’s done it before - Higbee decided fantasy championships last season. Yes, it was only a five-game stretch, but he scored 107.2 PPR fantasy points from Weeks 13-17, which led the No.2 tight end (Kelce) by a 20% margin.
-
LA’s shift to 12-personnel - The Rams played in 11-personnel (one tight end, one running back, three receivers) almost 80% of the time during the first ten weeks of last season. From Weeks 11 to 17, that number dropped to 58% in favor of more two-tight-end sets. The team’s offseason moves -- jettisoning Brandin Cooks and drafting Brycen Hopkins in Round 4 -- suggest 12 personnel formations are here to stay. Higbee’s snaps are probably locked in, but continued efficiency is no guarantee now that he has to share with Gerald Everett, who was a superior prospect enjoying his best season before getting hurt.