Slate Overview
Before diving into specific plays, let’s start our analysis with a big picture view of the slate because the key to having success in Week 17 DFS is really understanding the motivation levels of each team and which players are most likely to benefit from any changes in motivation.
Let’s start with the teams whose starters we should be able to play with a relatively high level of confidence because their playoff hopes hinge on getting a victory:
Tennessee
Baltimore
Cleveland
Indianapolis
Miami
Chicago
LA Rams
Arizona
Dallas
NY Giants
There is little reason for any of the above teams to rest anyone in a close game because their seasons could be over with a loss.We also have some teams who are have spots locked up but should be motivated due to seeding:
Green Bay (win locks up a bye)
Tampa Bay (win locks up a first-round matchup against the NFC East champion, which is worth fighting for)
New Orleans (can get a bye if Green Bay loses and Seattle wins)
The above 13 teams are probably the safest if you are looking to pay up for star veteran players.
There are also a number of teams with nothing to play for with solid team totals who we can feel pretty good about targeting. While guys might be more likely to sit if they suffer minor injuries, there is no reason for healthy guys to rest. The following two games have some shootout potential:
Minnesota (30.5) at Detroit (23.5)
Las Vegas (26.8) at Denver (24.3)
With these motivations in mind, let’s dive into our breakdown.
Guiding DFS Tournament Principles
There are three keys to winnings large-field tournaments on FanDuel. First, we need to identify the “good chalk” — the popular plays who we want to build our lineups around. Second, we need to identify the less-popular plays who still have similar upside to the most popular players at their position. Lastly, we need to decide which young breakout candidates to target.
Every week, we will talk about these principles and identify the top targets in each category. These players will be listed below by category along with their projected popularity and then broken down in more depth in the position-by-position breakdowns in the following section.
1. Good Chalk
Alexander Mattison (25%) Will step into the Dalvin Cook role and should get a lot of touches against a bad Lions defense.
Latavius Murray (25%) Murray has smashed whenever Alvin Kamara has been sidelined. Expect him to be chalk by Sunday but play him anyway.
Derrick Henry (25%) There are enough value options (like Murray and Mattison) to fit in Henry without having to take wild risks. We want him in our lineups against a Houston defense he destroyed for over 270 yards earlier this season.
2. Building unique lineups without sacrificing floor
Vikings passing game Mattison is listed as good chalk but there is also a good chance that the Vikings do most of their damage through the air. Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, and Irv Smith are strong plays who are not going to be as popular as they should be.
3. Getting ahead of the pack with young, high-upside players
More than any other week, Week 17 is one to focus in on high upside young players looking to end their season on a high note. Here are a handful worth focusing in on for tournaments:
Gabriel Davis (9%)
D’Andre Swift (15%)
Noah Fant (7%)
Josh Reynolds (8%)
Van Jefferson (1%)
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota ($7,100 — 6%)
Cousins looks like a fantastic relatively low-owned play at a bargain basement price. The popularity of Alexander Mattison may help keep more people off of Cousins than we might otherwise expect given how strong a spot he is in. The Vikings have a huge 30.5-point team total even with Dalvin Cook sidelined and the matchup could not get much better. Tom Brady threw for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns against this reeling Lions defense last week… in one half. His backup, Blaine Gabbert, kept pouring it on late and the two Tampa quarterbacks combined for 491 yards and 6 touchdowns. Cousins himself is coming off of a strong showing against a very good New Orleans defense (291 yards and 3 touchdowns) and has a very high point-per-dollar floor in this matchup. He probably has more upside than the general public is crediting him with as well. Adding to his attractiveness as a GPP play is that we know who the vast majority of the targets are going to: Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Cousins-Jefferson and Cousins-Thielen stacks are looking like great GPP options this Sunday.
Kirk Cousins says next season starts on Sunday for Vikings https://t.co/bGEyBppN4z pic.twitter.com/nmvC7Mfx0M
— Pioneer Press (@PioneerPress) December 31, 2020
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore ($9,000 — 11%)
Without diving into the specific scenarios, we know that Baltimore 100% clinches a playoff spot with a win. With a loss, fivethirtyeight projects their odds of getting in would fall all the way to 39%. We are going to get a fully motivated Baltimore team playing for their lives. That matters a great deal in Week 17. Jackson has been running a lot lately. Over his last four outings, he has 332 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns (14.3 fantasy points per game with his legs). This rushing upside is what separates Jackson from the pack in terms of GPP upside. The Bengals defense has been a bit better of late but gave up 26.8 fantasy points to Deshaun Watson last week. Cincinnati has not fared well against mobile quarterbacks in recent years. In Jackson’s first three starts against the Bengals, he rushed for 336 and a pair of scores. In a week where we have a ton of running back value and few elite wide receivers worth paying up for, it is not hard to fit Jackson onto our rosters. He is a worthwhile investment given his play of late and how important this game is for the Ravens.
Lamar Jackson is 92 yards rushing away from another 1,000-yard season.
— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) January 1, 2021
His track record says Ravens' chances of clinching a wild-card berth are increased if he sets this NFL mark.
Baltimore is 12-0 when Jackson rushes for 90 or more yards in a game.
https://t.co/g51Cfh82w6
Other Quarterbacks to Consider
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Kyler Murray | LA Rams | $7,800 | 2% | Playing through pain in must-win game |
| Russell Wilson | San Francisco | $7,500 | 6% | Has been bad lately. Needs to get right before the playoffs. |
| Deshaun Watson | Tennessee | $8,700 | 12% | Looking to play spoiler against shaky Tennessee defense |
| Aaron Rodgers | Chicago | $8,500 | 7% | Threw 4 TDs against the Bears in Week 12. |
| Mitchell Trubisky | Green Bay | $7,300 | 5% | Shown a solid passing floor of late and has some rushing upside. |
Running Back
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota ($5,000 — 25%)
With Dalvin Cook out, Mattison is expected to lead the Vikings backfield in Week 17. Given that he is coming off of a concussion, we may not see Mattison dominate the touches to the same extent we would expect Cook to. However, at this price and in this matchup, we have some wiggle room. The Lions have given up 29.0 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs (most in the league) and are allowing 1.73 touchdowns per game to running backs. In a similar spot back in Week 5, Mattison handled 23 touches and racked up 136 total yards against Seattle. This is simply way too cheap for a starting running back playing for a team that is a 7-point home favorite in a game with a total in the 50s. Unless we get some reporting in the next 24 hours that the Vikings are planning to go with a true committee approach, do not overthink this and take advantage of the massive savings to fit in a Top 10 running back play at a near-minimum salary.
Latavius Murray, New Orleans ($5,500 — 20%)
It will be interesting to see exactly where the projected popularity of Murray ends up after the late-breaking news that Alvin Kamara will be out due to contracting COVID-19 is fully factored in. Even if he becomes very popular, it would be unwise to fade Murray in this spot. Alvin Kamara was priced up at $9,400 this week and Murray (with Kamara out) probably carries a pretty similar projection to what Kamara originally had. In other words, Murray is underpriced by nearly $4,000. Even with Kamara setting records last week, Murray still had 15 touches and 96 yards of his own. He should end up carrying a heavy load for the Saints this week. In fact, we saw Murray with absurd usage in the two games Kamara missed. He averaged 24.0 carries and 9.0 targets per game. While the Carolina run defense has shown some improvement after a brutal start, this is still an above average spot for Murray. In the previous matchup between these two teams, Kamara and Murray combined for 204 total yards.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee ($10,200 —22%)
This week sets up well for a stars and scrubs approach (at least in terms of pricing) at the running back position. Some extreme values like Mattison and Murray give you the wiggle room to pay up for an elite RB1 and no non-quarterback comes close to the floor and ceiling combination of Henry. Last week was close to a worst-case scenario for Henry. The Packers jumped out to a big early lead and built their entire defensive game plan around stopping Henry and forcing the Titans to beat them through the air in nasty conditions. Henry still rushed for 98 yards. Not bad when that type of performance is failure. The upside is obvious as well in arguably the best possible matchup for running backs. The Texans are tied with the Lions for most fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backs (29.0) and are coming off of arguably their worst performance of the season when viewed within full context. Houston gave up 136 yards and 2 touchdowns to Bengals backup running back Samaje Perine while starter Giovani Bernard managed 131 total yards and 7 catches, as the duo combined for 44.2 FanDuel points. We have seen Henry do almost that much damage all on his own against this same defense. In their Week 6 matchup, Henry posted his season-high 39.4 fantasy points after racking up 274 total yards. With the playoffs on the line, pencil Henry in for 30 productive touches with a good chance of multiple scores.
Titans RB Derrick Henry heads for history vs. Texans (per @NFLResearch)https://t.co/9FpWqYVtby pic.twitter.com/LjXK01aYOE
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) January 2, 2021
Other Running Backs to Consider
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Malcolm Brown | LA Rams | $5,600 | 23% | Akers seems doubtful, leaving Brown the backfield to himself |
| Austin Ekeler | Kansas City | $7,700 | 9% | Should get plenty of touches, just needs to find the end zone |
| Myles Gaskin | Buffalo | $6,700 | 16% | Huge game in return from COVID last week. Will Buffalo starters play the whole way? |
| Jeff Wilson | Seattle | $6,300 | 14% | Tough run D but lead backs in this offense put up numbers |
| Rodney Smith | New Orleans | $4,900 | 6% | With Mike Daivs out, Smith should dominate touches |
| Derrick Henry | Houston | $10,200 | 21% | Huge game for Titans against awful Titans defense |
| David Montgomery | Green Bay | $8,200 | 7% | The hottest RB in the league has seen increase in touches |
| D'Andre Swift | Minnesota | $7,500 | 15% | Kamara just scored 6 TDs against this defense. |
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota ($8,000 — 14%)
If we are going to target a higher-priced player in a meaningless Week 17 game, it makes sense to focus on youth. Teams are trying to build some momentum for future years and there are few better ways to do so than helping a core young player enter their first full offseason with momentum. That is especially true in the case of Jefferson, who is closing in on some big rookie records. Jefferson has 1,267 receiving yards this season, which is fourth all-time for a rookie behind only Odell Beckham (New York Giants, 2014, 1,305 yards), Randy Moss (Minnesota Vikings, 1998, 1,313) and record-holder Anquan Boldin (Arizona Cardinals, 2003, 1,377). With 111 yards against a horrible Lions pass defense, Jefferson will set the NFL rookie record for most receiving yards. Expect the Vikings to try to get him there. If they do put in the effort, there is no reason to believe they won’t be successful. As noted above when discussing Kirk Cousins, the Lions have one of the worst pass defenses in the league and seem rudderless in the midst of coaching changes. Last week, Mike Evans torched this unit for 181 yards and 2 touchdown while Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski (two) also caught touchdowns.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson looks to catch rookie record in finalehttps://t.co/tyGKaWeRCo pic.twitter.com/5o5MITMTxF
— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) January 2, 2021
Mike Williams, LA Chargers ($5,900 — 5%)
The Chargers are not one of the teams we highlighted in the slate overview as one to trust so Williams is not a player we want to use in cash or even single-entry tournament lineups. However, he looks like a sneaky GPP play with plenty of upside. The Chiefs have already locked up the top seed in the AFC and are expected to rest starters in Week 17. The Chargers are just playing out the string but will want to help star rookie Justin Herbert end things on a high note to try to build some momentum going into the offseason. That task will be harder with top targets Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry both sidelined. Herbert will again have to lean on Williams, who saw 10 targets last week. Expect a similar number of opportunities in Week 17 against some backup defenders for Williams, who has the talent to do more with double-digit targets than he did last week.
Other Wide Receivers to Consider
| Player | Opponent | Salary | Field% | Comment |
| Gabriel Davis | Miami | $5,200 | 9% | The vet WRs are banged up, could mean a lot of targets for Davis |
| Robert Woods | Arizona | $6,800 | 8% | With Kupp out, Woods should see even more targets than usual |
| T.Y. Hilton | Jacksonville | $6,300 | 6% | Averaging 82 yards per game over his last five. |
| Davante Adams | Chicago | $9,300 | 23% | In the midst of an historically great season |
| Josh Reynolds | Arizona | $4,900 | 8% | Bumps up to WR2 with Kupp out. Way too cheap. |
| Adam Thielen | Detroit | $7,900 | 6% | Great matchup, 7 TDs in his last 6 games. |
Tight End
George Kittle, San Francisco ($6,800 — 10%)
Kittle finally returned from a long absence to play 28 snaps last week against the Cardinals. Even in limited playing time, he put up 92 receiving yards on 5 targets. With another week to recover more fully, he should see his snaps increase a bit for Week 17 as the 49ers get another chance to play spoiler to an NFC West foe. Kittle does not need to play eve
