DraftKings GPP Domination: Week 6

Photo: USA Today Sports

All roster percentages cited below are based on Devin Knotts’ projections which are refined and updated throughout the week. Click here or use our Lineup Optimizer to make sure you are using the latest projections before setting your lineups.

Know Your Enemies

To place near the top of a large-field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd in some way. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but without the context of how those players fit together under the salary cap, you’re left guessing what type of lineups you’ll be up against most frequently.

To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, with the goal of building your lineups differently, let’s think about how the crowd will attack each position:

Quarterback

With Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, and Kyler Murray off the main slate (and Dak Prescott recovering from ankle surgery), we shouldn’t expect heavy quarterback spending in the common roster construction. Deshaun Watson ($7,000) and Aaron Rodgers ($7,500) should be popular stand-alone plays, but the crowd is more likely to play the matchups with lower-priced options, such as Matthew Stafford ($6,300) and Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,900).

Pivot Points: Paying up to Lamar Jackson ($7,700) would ordinarily be a solid game theory play in the context of this slate, but watching him throw 37 times against only two rush attempts in last week’s blowout win over the Bengals raises concern about the knee injury he’s playing through. Instead, look for leverage in the same price tiers as this week’s more popular plays. Cam Newton ($6,500) and Ryan Tannehill ($5,900) are each in great spots as heavy home favorites with implied team totals of at least 27 points. Hopefully, Tannehill’s 30 DraftKings points on national TV Tuesday night didn’t raise his profile too much.

Running Back

Similar to the quarterback position, bye weeks and injuries have left the player pool at running back devoid of its usual star power. Derrick Henry ($7,300), Alexander Mattison ($7,200), and Mike Davis ($7,000) will appear as the RB1 in many lineups, and enough savings opportunities exist at other positions to pair two of those three on the same roster. But with quite a few high-end wide receivers in terrific on-paper matchups, we’re likely to see season-low running back spending in stock roster-builds. Expect the crowd to settle on inexpensive RB2s like David Montgomery ($5,800), David Johnson ($5,400), and possibly even Myles Gaskin ($5,400), assuming Jordan Howard is inactive again.

Pivot Points: It’s a week where weighing volume over matchup will gain you leverage on the field. James Conner ($7,100), Kareem Hunt ($6,900), Miles Sanders ($6,600), and Joe Mixon ($6,200) are each up against imposing run-stopping units, but their respective talent levels and locked-in workhorse roles give them similar odds as Jones or Henry of finishing as the top scorer at the position.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown ($5,600) reminded the public how dominant he can be on Tuesday night (after Week 6 pricing had already been released). With the Titans wide receiver corps presumably still decimated by COVID-19, Brown will be an auto-click for many entrants. Reduced spending at quarterback, running back, and tight end should lead common rosters to include a pair of pricey wide receivers. Calvin Ridley ($7,800) and Adam Thielen ($7,300) are the usual suspects. Those who spend on only one expensive receiver to roster a second-high priced running back will inflate Kenny Golladay’s ($6,200) roster percentage in a matchup against Jacksonville’s depleted defense.

Pivot Points: Thielen and Irv Smith (see below) are the Vikings pass-catchers our opponents are targeting, which makes their high-ceiling teammate Justin Jefferson ($6,000) an ideal pivot in tournaments. Late-week injury news will be especially important in determining how to stray from the crowd at wide receiver. Keep your eyes glued to the news cycle for the statuses of Diontae Johnson, D.J. Chark, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, and even Brashad Perriman. A missed game for any of these players could pave the way for one or more wide receivers in the $3K salary range to change the complexion of common builds.

Tight End

Smith ($2,500) is priced at the site-minimum after finally getting involved as a pass-catcher in Week 5. The allure of a meeting with the Falcons defense combined with the savings he creates should attract the crowd more than early roster projections indicate. Travis Kelce and George Kittle are not on the main slate, which points to flat roster percentages at the position overall. Those who want to see Smith prove last week wasn’t a fluke are likely to concentrate on the $5K-range where Jonnu Smith ($5,200) is the standout option.

Pivot Points: Attack the tier from $4K-$5K with every-down tight ends on teams with high implied totals. Hayden Hurst ($4,700) and Eric Ebron ($4,100) fit the bill. Trey Burton ($3,100) has seen increased usage since returning from injury and is a potential price pivot off Smith.

Can You Trust The Chalk?

The term chalk in sports betting simply means the heavily-favored side of a bet. In DFS tournaments, these are the most popular players on the slate. Identifying and taking a stance on the chalk is a crucial part of tournament strategy. If you fade a chalky player, and he fails to deliver on his scoring projection, your lineup will be positioned to pass a large chunk of the field in the standings. But when a popular player lives up to expectations and you choose not to roster him, your lineups can quickly get buried in the standings.

Some suggestions on how to treat this week’s most popular players:

Derrick Henry (vs. HOU, $7,300, 23% rostered)

All the ingredients are there for Henry to have a huge game against Houston:

• Implied game script - Tennessee is at home and opened as a 5.5-point favorite with a team total of 28.25 points.

• Matchup - The Texans have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to enemy running backs this season and it’s had little to do with PPR scoring. They’ve been gashed on the ground by Clyde Edwards-Helaire (25-138-1), James Conner (18-109-1), and Dalvin Cook (27-130-2).

• Established Ceiling - Since Week 8 of last season, Henry has exceeded a 4x multiple of his current salary four times in 12 games. His recent past performance suggests the probability he can hit a high enough ceiling for GPPs exceeds his projected roster percentage.

Despite the cushy set up, don’t exceed the field’s exposure to Henry in tournaments. While the Titans were smart to limit his reps in Tuesday’s win over the Bills, he’s still entering this game on four days rest. And while Henry’s rushing and touchdown upsides are massive, his lack of involvement as a pass-catcher is a concern any time he’s chalky on a full-PPR site. If the game script goes sideways, he doesn’t have outs.

Adam Thielen (vs. ATL, $7,300, 17% rostered)

Thielen enters Week 6 with a combined 23 targets, 17 catches, 194 yards, and three touchdowns over his last two games. He draws yet another soft matchup this week against the Falcons, who have allowed seven wide receivers to eclipse 90 yards against them through five games this season. It’s a dream spot on paper but we can’t rule out the Vikings’ offense sputtering in this contest, which would prevent a third-consecutive spike-week for Thielen. As fantasy-friendly as Atlanta’s defense has been to opposing wide receivers, their defensive line has generated pressure on 33% of passing snaps this season, the sixth-highest rate in the league. If Minnesota’s woeful offensive line can’t afford Cousins the time to throw downfield, it could be an average day for Thielen, which is not what we’re looking for at his salary/roster projection profile.

Kenny Golladay (@ JAX, $6,200, 23% rostered)

$6,200 is simply a bad price for Golladay matched up against Jacksonville’s beleaguered (and thoroughly injured) defense. Coming off a bye-week, Golladay (hamstring) should be healthier than he has been at any point this season. Hopefully, his WR1’s return to health and the additional week to gameplan also helped Lions offensive coordinator Darrel Bevel rediscover the section of his playbook devoted to vertical passing. With Detroit implied to score 29 points this week, Golladay, who has scored in both of his games played this season, has one of the highest touchdown projections of any wide receiver on the slate. The level of competition at cornerback in Jacksonville should only help. First-round rookie C.J. Henderson is dealing with a shoulder issue, and his backup, Chris Claybrooks, who was smoked by Brandin Cooks in Week 5, has a quadriceps injury of his own. You’ll want to at least match the field’s exposure to Golladay in your lineups.

Leverage Plays

You won’t necessarily be sneaking the players in this section past your opponents. But their percent rostered projection is lower than the probability they can appear in a first-place lineup. If you are multi-entering tournaments, raise your exposure higher than their projected roster percentage.

Cam Newton (vs. DEN, $6,500, 6% rostered)
The “out of sight, out of mind” effect should shade Newton from the crowd in a terrific home spot against the Broncos. New England opened as an 8.5-point favorite with an implied team total of 27 points. When you consider Newton has participated in 60% of the Patriots’ touchdowns this season (despite missing a full game), it wouldn’t be shocking to see him visit the end zone three times. Denver’s pass defense isn’t as bad as the units Newton beat up on in matchups against Miami and Seattle earlier this season, but they have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to every quarterback they’ve faced with the exception of Sam Darnold/Joe Flacco in Week 4. Look to Julian Edelman ($5,600), who has enjoyed an abnormally high 12.5 average target depth in three games with Newton, to complete the stack.

Jonathan Taylor (vs. CIN, $6,400, 11% rostered)
It’s getting tiresome losing money while waiting on Taylor’s breakout game, but don’t be afraid to chase your losses in this week’s matchup against the Bengals. If you’ve been reading this column each week, you already know we should be targeting running backs against Cincinnati’s inexperienced linebacker corps, but now their defensive line is a mess too. Their most reliable defensive end, Sam Hubbard, is out with an elbow injury, and nose tackle D.J. Reader became the team’s third defensive tackle to land on IR. After last week’s turnover-marred loss against the Browns, expect the Colts to hide Philip Rivers by running the ball all day in this matchup. Even if Taylor continues to play on only half the snaps and handle 60% of Indianapolis’ rushing workload, it would be enough for him to top 100 yards and score twice on the ground.

Editor's Note: It was revealed Friday morning that Indianapolis is dealing with a COVID scare, which puts the Bengals at Colts game at risk for being bumped off the slate. Stay tuned for updates and plan accordingly.

Justin Jefferson (vs. ATL, $6,000, 6% rostered)
Jefferson might be the fourth-highest rostered player on his own team this week behind Thielen, Smith, and Alexander Mattison. It’s a miscalculation by the crowd based on Jefferson’s nationally televised dud against Seattle’s league-worst pass defense in Week 5. Since becoming an every-down player in Week 3, Jefferson has racked up 99 yards after-the-catch, which ranks seventh in the NFL over that span. If we’re fading Thielen on the supposition Atlanta’s pass-rush will keep Cousins from uncorking deep shots, perhaps the Vikings will give Jefferson more intermediate looks where he can use his elite size-adjusted athleticism to rip off YAC plays. Regardless, he's not three times less likely than Thielen to go off in this spot.

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